scholarly journals A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Dawson ◽  
David Thompson ◽  
Daniel Johns ◽  
Ruth Wood ◽  
Geoff Darch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Adaptation Action

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

scholarly journals Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170295 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. F. Warren ◽  
R. L. Wilby ◽  
K. Brown ◽  
P. Watkiss ◽  
Richard A. Betts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Statutory Duty ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Impact Indicators ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Adaptation Action

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

scholarly journals Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swenja Surminski ◽  
Manuela Di Mauro ◽  
J. Alastair R. Baglee ◽  
Richenda K. Connell ◽  
Joel Hankinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Methodological Challenges ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Uk

Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

Business Aviation in Russia: Specific Features and Prospects of Development

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-93
Author(s):  
D. V. Slivinsky ◽  
I. A. Fomina ◽  
D. G. Menshikh
Keyword(s):  
Systems Approach ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Organization And Management ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Business Aviation ◽  
Wide Range

The presented study determines the role of business aviation in the modern economy and examines the specific features of its development in Russia.Aim. The study aims to analyze the development of business aviation in Russia and its correlation with economic development in general.Tasks. The authors determine the benefits of business aviation as a business tool, examine the specific features of the Russian business aviation market and problems of its development, and identify factors that affect the development of business aviation in Russia.Methods. This study uses the methods of comparative and retrospective analysis, cross-country comparison, systems approach, and expert analytics.Results. Business aviation is a new segment of civil aviation for Russia. Therefore, it is advisable to rely on foreign practices in the management of its development. In many countries, business aviation is a separate industry that specializes in providing transport services to a wide range of corporate clients and/or individuals. The development of this industry is associated with the economic growth rate and the development level of the national economy, and also depends on the national institutional specifics. This study describes the specific features of development of business aviation in Russia and problems arising in the organization and management of this type of business.Conclusions. The authors develop a system of factors affecting the development of business aviation in Russia, describe the major problems of this industry, and propose solutions. The results of this study can be used in the development (adjustment) of business aviation development strategies in Russia both at the industrial and corporate level, and in the implementation of the national policy in this field.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE RISKS TO CONTAINERS CONSIDERING GLOBAL WARMING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.

The political background to arts in health

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisy Fancourt
Keyword(s):  
National Policy ◽  
Health Departments ◽  
Arts Funding ◽  
Health And Wellbeing ◽  
The Arts ◽  
Policy And Strategy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Political Background ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Arts In Health

In recent decades, there has been an increasing number of national policy and strategy papers discussing arts in health in countries around the world. Some of this activity has been driven by national arts bodies, championing the value of the arts in health and wellbeing and advocating for their inclusion within core arts funding and practice. Other activity has been led by health bodies, including health departments within governments and health services themselves. This chapter explores some of the most influential documents and considers their implication for research and practice. It draws on case studies of activity within Ireland, the UK, the USA, Australia, and Nordic countries.

scholarly journals Observations from a small country: mental health policy, services and nursing in Wales

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Ben Hannigan
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Health Policy ◽  
Mental Health Policy ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Small Country ◽  
Mental Health Nurses ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Health Need ◽  
The Uk

Abstract Wales is a small country, with an ageing population, high levels of population health need and an economy with a significant reliance on public services. Its health system attracts little attention, with analyses tending to underplay the differences between the four countries of the UK. This paper helps redress this via a case study of Welsh mental health policy, services and nursing practice. Distinctively, successive devolved governments in Wales have emphasised public planning and provision. Wales also has primary legislation addressing sustainability and future generations, safe nurse staffing and rights of access to mental health services. However, in a context in which gaps always exist between national policy, local services and face-to-face care, evidence points to the existence of tension between Welsh policy aspirations and realities. Mental health nurses in Wales have produced a framework for action, which describes practice exemplars and looks forward to a secure future for the profession. With policy, however enlightened, lacking the singular potency to bring about intended change, nurses as the largest of the professional groups involved in mental health care have opportunities to make a difference in Wales through leadership, influence and collective action.

scholarly journals d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masayoshi Ishii ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Climate Simulations

Abstract A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making for future climate changes (d4PDF), was designed for climate change risk assessments. Since the completion of the first set of climate simulations in 2015, the database has been growing continuously. It contains the results of ensemble simulations conducted over a total of thousands years respectively for past and future climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) and regional (20 km mesh) atmospheric models. Several sets of future climate simulations are available, in which global mean surface air temperatures are forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 K, and 1.5 K relative to preindustrial levels. Nonwarming past climate simulations are incorporated in d4PDF along with the past climate simulations. The total data volume is approximately 2 petabytes. The atmospheric models satisfactorily simulate the past climate in terms of climatology, natural variations, and extreme events such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. In addition, data users can obtain statistically significant changes in mean states or weather and climate extremes of interest between the past and future climates via a simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. The database is helpful in understanding future changes in climate states and in attributing past climate events to global warming. Impact assessment studies for climate changes have concurrently been performed in various research areas such as natural hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, and insurance. The database has now become essential for promoting climate and risk assessment studies and for devising climate adaptation policies. Moreover, it has helped in establishing an interdisciplinary research community on global warming across Japan.

scholarly journals 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

scholarly journals Social Media Toxicity Classification Using Deep Learning: Real-World Application UK Brexit

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1332
Author(s):  
Hong Fan ◽  
Wu Du ◽  
Abdelghani Dahou ◽  
Ahmed A. Ewees ◽  
Dalia Yousri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Hate Speech ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
User Generated Content ◽  
Real World Application ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Public Dataset ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Harmful Side Effect

Social media has become an essential facet of modern society, wherein people share their opinions on a wide variety of topics. Social media is quickly becoming indispensable for a majority of people, and many cases of social media addiction have been documented. Social media platforms such as Twitter have demonstrated over the years the value they provide, such as connecting people from all over the world with different backgrounds. However, they have also shown harmful side effects that can have serious consequences. One such harmful side effect of social media is the immense toxicity that can be found in various discussions. The word toxic has become synonymous with online hate speech, internet trolling, and sometimes outrage culture. In this study, we build an efficient model to detect and classify toxicity in social media from user-generated content using the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT). The BERT pre-trained model and three of its variants has been fine-tuned on a well-known labeled toxic comment dataset, Kaggle public dataset (Toxic Comment Classification Challenge). Moreover, we test the proposed models with two datasets collected from Twitter from two different periods to detect toxicity in user-generated content (tweets) using hashtages belonging to the UK Brexit. The results showed that the proposed model can efficiently classify and analyze toxic tweets.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document