scholarly journals Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: Evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeshina I. Adekunle ◽  
Michael Meehan ◽  
Dianna Rojas ◽  
James Trauer ◽  
Emma McBryde
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Novel Virus

AbstractFollowing the outbreak of novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) or COVID-19 in Wuhan, China late 2019, different countries have put in place interventions such as travel ban, proper hygiene, and social distancing to slow the spread of this novel virus. We evaluated the effects of travel bans in the Australia context and projected the epidemic until May 2020. Our modelling results closely align with observed cases in Australia indicating the need for maintaining or improving on the control measures to slow down the virus.

scholarly journals Estimates of the ongoing need for social distancing and control measures post-“lockdown” from trajectories of COVID-19 cases and mortality

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 2001483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Lonergan ◽  
James D. Chalmers
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
And Control ◽  
Doubling Times

By 21 May 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) had caused more than 5 million cases of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) across more than 200 countries. Most countries with significant outbreaks have introduced social distancing or “lockdown” measures to reduce viral transmission. So the key question now is when, how and to what extent these measures can be lifted.Publicly available data on daily numbers of newly confirmed cases and mortality were used to fit regression models estimating trajectories, doubling times and the reproduction number (R0) of the disease, before and under the control measures. These data ran up to 21 May 2020, and were sufficient for analysis in 89 countries.The estimates of R0 before lockdown based on these data were broadly consistent with those previously published: between 2.0 and 3.7 in the countries with the largest number of cases available for analysis (USA, Italy, Spain, France and UK). There was little evidence to suggest that the restrictions had reduced R far below 1 in many places, with France having the most rapid reductions: R0 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.82) based on cases, and 0.77 (95% CI 0.73–0.80) based on mortality.Intermittent lockdown has been proposed as a means of controlling the outbreak while allowing periods of increased freedom and economic activity. These data suggest that few countries could have even 1 week per month unrestricted without seeing resurgence of the epidemic. Similarly, restoring 20% of the activity that has been prevented by the lockdowns looks difficult to reconcile with preventing the resurgence of the disease in most countries.

scholarly journals The First 100 Days of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Control in Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Quang Thai ◽  
Maia A Rabaa ◽  
Duong Huy Luong ◽  
Dang Quang Tan ◽  
Tran Dai Quang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Mass Communication ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Early Introduction ◽  
The Government

Abstract Background One hundred days after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in Vietnam on 23 January, 270 cases were confirmed, with no deaths. We describe the control measures used by the government and their relationship with imported and domestically acquired case numbers, with the aim of identifying the measures associated with successful SARS-CoV-2 control. Methods Clinical and demographic data on the first 270 SARS-CoV-2 infected cases and the timing and nature of government control measures, including numbers of tests and quarantined individuals, were analyzed. Apple and Google mobility data provided proxies for population movement. Serial intervals were calculated from 33 infector-infectee pairs and used to estimate the proportion of presymptomatic transmission events and time-varying reproduction numbers. Results A national lockdown was implemented between 1 and 22 April. Around 200 000 people were quarantined and 266 122 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests conducted. Population mobility decreased progressively before lockdown. In total, 60% (163/270) of cases were imported; 43% (89/208) of resolved infections remained asymptomatic for the duration of infection. The serial interval was 3.24 days, and 27.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.7%-40.0%) of transmissions occurred presymptomatically. Limited transmission amounted to a maximum reproduction number of 1.15 (95% CI, .·37–2.·36). No community transmission has been detected since 15 April. Conclusions Vietnam has controlled SARS-CoV-2 spread through the early introduction of mass communication, meticulous contact tracing with strict quarantine, and international travel restrictions. The value of these interventions is supported by the high proportion of asymptomatic and imported cases, and evidence for substantial presymptomatic transmission.

scholarly journals Population Adherence to Infection Control Behaviors during Hong Kong’s First and Third COVID-19 Waves: A Serial Cross-Sectional Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 11176
Author(s):  
Emily Ying Yang Chan ◽  
Jean H. Kim ◽  
Kin-on Kwok ◽  
Zhe Huang ◽  
Kevin Kei Ching Hung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infection Control ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Preventive Practices ◽  
Over Time

Background: Although COVID-19 has affected over 220 countries by October 2021, there is limited research examining the patterns and determinants of adherence to infection control measures over time. Aims: Our study examines the sociodemographic factors associated with changes in the frequency of adherence to personal hygiene and social distancing behaviors in Hong Kong. Methods: A serial cross-sectional telephone survey in the general population was conducted during the first (March 2020) (n = 765) and third wave (December 2020) (n = 651) of the local outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Respondents were asked about their level of compliance with various personal hygiene and social distancing recommendations. Results: By the third wave, mask use increased to 100%, and throughout the study periods, >90% practiced frequent hand hygiene. However, adherence to social distancing measures significantly waned over time: avoidance of social gatherings (80.5% to 72.0%), avoidance of public places/public transport (53.3% to 26.0%), avoidance of international travel (85.8% to 76.6%) (p < 0.05). The practice of ordering food takeout/home delivery, however, increased, particularly among high-income respondents. Higher education, female gender and employment status were the most consistently associated factors with adherence to COVID-19 preventive practices in the multivariable models. Conclusions: In urban areas of this region, interventions to improve personal hygiene in a prolonged pandemic should target males and those with low education. In addition to these groups, the working population needs to be targeted in order to improve adherence to social distancing guidelines.

The chronicle of COVID-19: possible strategies to curb the pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajesh Kumar ◽  
Seetha Harilal ◽  
Abdullah G. Al-Sehemi ◽  
Githa Elizabeth Mathew ◽  
Simone Carradori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Therapeutic Strategies ◽  
Antiviral Drugs ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Virus ◽  
Day By Day

: COVID-19, an epidemic that emerged in Wuhan, has become a pandemic affecting worldwide and is in a rapidly evolving condition. Day by day, the confirmed cases and deaths are increasing many folds. SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus; therefore, limited data are available to curb the disease. Epidemiological approaches, isolation, quarantine, social distancing, lockdown, and curfew are being employed to halt the spread of the disease. Individual and joint efforts all over the world are producing a wealth of data and information which are expected to produce therapeutic strategies against COVID-19. Current research focuses on the utilization of antiviral drugs, repurposing strategies, vaccine development as well as basic to advanced research about the organism and the infection. The review focuses on the life cycle, targets, and possible therapeutic strategies, which can lead to further research and development of COVID-19 therapy.

scholarly journals Estimating the consequences of a COVID-19 super spreader: A stochastic model of a night on the town

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110314
Author(s):  
Nils Henrik Kolnes ◽  
Snorre Nilsen Eikeland ◽  
Tor Albert Ersdal ◽  
Geir Sverre Braut
Keyword(s):  
Infection Control ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Local Municipality ◽  
The Town

A stochastic model estimated the consequences of a COVID-19 super spreader event occurring in the local municipality of Stavanger, Norway as a result of a night on the town. The model imposed different infection control regulations and compared these different scenarios. For Stavanger’s 161 locations of service, secondary transmissions from a super spreader event was estimated to infect a median of 37, requiring the quarantining of 200 guests given no infection control regulations, 23 and 167 when imposing social distancing regulations and other hygienic infection control measures, 7 infected and 63 quarantined guests with restrictions placed on the guest capacity, and 4 infected and 57 quarantined guests with both forms of restriction in use.

scholarly journals A case series of ischemic stroke with coronavirus disease 2019 in two Egyptian centers

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nevine El Nahas ◽  
Tamer Roushdy ◽  
Eman Hamid ◽  
Sherien Farag ◽  
Hossam Shokri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Cerebrovascular Disorders ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Neurological Manifestations ◽  
Case Presentation ◽  
Novel Virus

Abstract Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel virus that has been reported to have various neurological manifestations. Cerebrovascular disorders have been encountered as a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presentation in our center during the pandemic. Case presentation We are presenting 10 cases with cerebrovascular manifestations after having COVID-19 few days prior to stroke. Conclusion Cerebrovascular manifestations can occur in association with COVID-19 and may have significant implications on prognosis and management.

scholarly journals Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Nouvellet ◽  
Sangeeta Bhatia ◽  
Anne Cori ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
Marc Baguelin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Strict Control ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Proxy Measure ◽  
Lower Transmission ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27–77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49–91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12–48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.

scholarly journals Surge of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections linked to single introduction of a virus strain in Myanmar, 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Myat Htut Nyunt ◽  
Hnin Ohnmar Soe ◽  
Kay Thi Aye ◽  
Wah Wah Aung ◽  
Yi Yi Kyaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Whole Genome ◽  
Genome Sequences ◽  
Genomic Epidemiology ◽  
Local Spread ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Local Transmission

AbstractSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is a major health concern globally. Genomic epidemiology is an important tool to assess the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Several mutations have been reported by genome analysis of the SARS-CoV-2. In the present study, we investigated the mutational and phylogenetic analysis of 30 whole-genome sequences for the virus's genomic characteristics in the specimens collected in the early phase of the pandemic (March–June, 2020) and the sudden surge of local transmission (August–September, 2020). The four samples in the early phase of infection were B.6 lineage and located within a clade of the samples collected at the same time in Singapore and Malaysia, while five returnees by rescue flights showed the lineage B. 1.36.1 (three from India), B.1.1 (one from India) and B.1.80 (one from China). However, there was no evidence of local spread from these returnees. Further, all 19 whole-genome sequences collected in the sudden surge of local transmission showed lineage B.1.36. The surge of the second wave on SARS-CoV-2 infection was linked to the single-introduction of a variant (B.1.36) that may result from the strict restriction of international travel and containment efforts. These genomic data provides the useful information to disease control and prevention strategy.

scholarly journals 503. The Misappropriation of COVID-19 Related TV Ad Expenditures

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S317-S317
Author(s):  
Kartavya J Vyas
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Preventive Interventions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Background With nearly three-fourths of the U.S. population isolated in their homes between early March and the end of May, almost all of whom regularly watch television (TV), it was no surprise that companies began to purchase airtime on major television networks to advertise (ad) their brands and showcase their empathy with the populace. But how would the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic curve have changed had these same dollars been allocated to proven preventive interventions? Methods Performance and activity metrics on all COVID-19 related TV ads that have aired in the U.S. between February 26th and June 7th, 2020, were provided by iSpot.tv, Inc., including expenditures. COVID-19 incidence and mortality data were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Descriptive statistics were performed to calculate total TV ad expenditures and other performance metrics across industry categories. Leveraging a previously published stochastic agent-based model that was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19, the number of cases that would have been prevented had these same dollars been used for preventive interventions was calculated using cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs), the cost divided by cases prevented. Results A total of 1,513 companies purchased TV airtime during the study period, totaling approximately 1.1 million airings, 215.5 billion impressions, and $2.7 billion in expenditures; most of the expenditures were spent by the restaurant (15.9%), electronics and communications (15.4%), and vehicle (13.7%) industries. The CERs for PPE and social distancing measures were $13,856 and $29,552, respectively; therefore, had all of these TV ad dollars instead been allocated to PPE or social distancing measures, approximately 194,908 and 91,386 cases of COVID-19 may have been prevented by the end of the study period, respectively. Figure 2. COVID-19 cases prevented had TV ad expenditures been reallocated for interventions. Conclusion Americans were inundated with COVID-19 related TV ads during the early months of the pandemic and companies are now showing some signs to relent. In times of disaster, however, it is paramount that the private sector go beyond showcasing their empathy and truly become socially responsible by allocating their funds to proven prevention and control measures. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals COVID-19 in South Korea: Proper timing for Easing Mask mandates after COVID-19 Vaccination

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Yun-Jung Kang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Proper Timing ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract As of 25 July 2021, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency reported 1,422 new COVID-19 cases, 188,848 total cases, and 2.073 total deaths (1.10% fatality rates). Since the first SARS-CoV-2 case was reported, efforts to find a treatment and vaccine against COVID-19 have been widespread. Four vaccines are on the WHO’s emergency use listing and are approved of their usage; BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, AZD1222, and Ad26.COV2.S. Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 need at least 14 days to achieve effectiveness. Thus, people should abide by prevention and control measures, including wearing masks, washing hands, and social distancing. However, a lot of new cases were reported after vaccinations, as many people did not follow the prevention control measures before the end of the 14 days period. There is no doubt we need to break free from mask mandates. But let us not decide the timing in haste. Even if the mask mandates are eased, they should be changed depending on the number of reported cases, vaccinations, as well as prevention and control measures on how circumstances are changing under the influence of mutant coronavirus.

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