Dynamic Prioritization of COVID-19 Vaccines When Social Distancing is Limited for Essential Workers

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.1101/2020.09.22.20199174 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Jack H. Buckner ◽

Gerardo Chowell ◽

Michael R. Springborn

Keyword(s):

Optimal Allocation ◽

Rapid Development ◽

Vaccination Campaign ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Demographic Groups ◽

Health Goals ◽

Temporal Flexibility ◽

Policy Objectives ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics

AbstractCOVID-19 vaccines have been authorized in multiple countries and more are under rapid development. Careful design of a vaccine prioritization strategy across socio-demographic groups is a crucial public policy challenge given that (1) vaccine supply will be constrained for the first several months of the vaccination campaign, (2) there are stark differences in transmission and severity of impacts from SARS-CoV-2 across groups, and (3) SARS-CoV-2 differs markedly from previous pandemic viruses. We assess the optimal allocation of a limited vaccine supply in the U.S. across groups differentiated by age and also essential worker status, which constrains opportunities for social distancing. We model transmission dynamics using a compartmental model parameterized to capture current understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19, including key sources of group heterogeneity (susceptibility, severity, and contact rates). We investigate three alternative policy objectives (minimizing infections, years of life lost, or deaths) and model a dynamic strategy that evolves with the population epidemiological status. We find that this temporal flexibility contributes substantially to public health goals. Older essential workers are typically targeted first. However, depending on the objective, younger essential workers are prioritized to control spread or seniors to directly control mortality. When the objective is minimizing deaths, relative to an untargeted approach, prioritization averts deaths on a range between 20,000 (when non-pharmaceutical interventions are strong) and 300,000 (when these interventions are weak). We illustrate how optimal prioritization is sensitive to several factors, most notably vaccine effectiveness and supply, rate of transmission, and the magnitude of initial infections.

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Dynamic prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.2025786118 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 118 (16) ◽

pp. e2025786118

Author(s):

Jack H. Buckner ◽

Gerardo Chowell ◽

Michael R. Springborn

Keyword(s):

Optimal Allocation ◽

Rapid Development ◽

Vaccination Campaign ◽

The United States ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Health Goals ◽

Temporal Flexibility ◽

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics

COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized in multiple countries, and more are under rapid development. Careful design of a vaccine prioritization strategy across sociodemographic groups is a crucial public policy challenge given that 1) vaccine supply will be constrained for the first several months of the vaccination campaign, 2) there are stark differences in transmission and severity of impacts from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across groups, and 3) SARS-CoV-2 differs markedly from previous pandemic viruses. We assess the optimal allocation of a limited vaccine supply in the United States across groups differentiated by age and essential worker status, which constrains opportunities for social distancing. We model transmission dynamics using a compartmental model parameterized to capture current understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19, including key sources of group heterogeneity (susceptibility, severity, and contact rates). We investigate three alternative policy objectives (minimizing infections, years of life lost, or deaths) and model a dynamic strategy that evolves with the population epidemiological status. We find that this temporal flexibility contributes substantially to public health goals. Older essential workers are typically targeted first. However, depending on the objective, younger essential workers are prioritized to control spread or seniors to directly control mortality. When the objective is minimizing deaths, relative to an untargeted approach, prioritization averts deaths on a range between 20,000 (when nonpharmaceutical interventions are strong) and 300,000 (when these interventions are weak). We illustrate how optimal prioritization is sensitive to several factors, most notably, vaccine effectiveness and supply, rate of transmission, and the magnitude of initial infections.

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Optimal Allocation of the Limited COVID-19 Vaccine Supply in South Korea

Journal of Clinical Medicine ◽

10.3390/jcm10040591 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 591

Author(s):

Eunha Shim

Keyword(s):

South Korea ◽

Vaccine Efficacy ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

Age Distribution ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Vaccination Strategy ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Specific Contact ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics

Initial supply of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine may be limited, necessitating its effective use. Herein, an age-structured model of COVID-19 spread in South Korea is parameterized to understand the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. The model determines optimal vaccine allocation for minimizing infections, deaths, and years of life lost while accounting for population factors, such as country-specific age distribution and contact structure, and various levels of vaccine efficacy. A transmission-blocking vaccine should be prioritized in adults aged 20–49 years and those older than 50 years to minimize the cumulative incidence and mortality, respectively. A strategy to minimize years of life lost involves the vaccination of adults aged 40–69 years, reflecting the relatively high case-fatality rates and years of life lost in this age group. An incidence-minimizing vaccination strategy is highly sensitive to vaccine efficacy, and vaccines with lower efficacy should be administered to teenagers and adults aged 50–59 years. Consideration of age-specific contact rates and vaccine efficacy is critical to optimize vaccine allocation. New recommendations for COVID-19 vaccines under consideration by the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are mainly based on a mortality-minimizing allocation strategy.

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From Isolation to Containment: Perceived Fear of Infectivity and Protective Behavioral Changes during the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18126503 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (12) ◽

pp. 6503

Author(s):

Arielle Kaim ◽

Maya Siman-Tov ◽

Eli Jaffe ◽

Bruria Adini

Keyword(s):

Vaccination Campaign ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Protective Behavior ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Social Distancing ◽

The Public ◽

The Road ◽

Israeli Population ◽

Study Results ◽

Public Health Officials

In the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, maintenance of protective behavior is a continued challenge in the effort to contain the spread of the virus. A cross-sectional study via an internet questionnaire was utilized to elucidate changes in compliance to protective behavior among the Israeli population (n = 1120), after the beginning of the vaccination campaign. Comparison was made between individuals who were previously infected with the virus, those who received one dose of inoculation with the vaccine, and individuals that were neither infected or vaccinated. The study results indicate that those who were previously infected with the COVID-19 virus were less careful about mask wearing (18.8%) and social distancing (29.7%), as compared to the other examined groups (regarding mask wearing, 8.2% and 11.6% respectively, and with regard to social distancing 12.8% and 19.2%) and may require targeted risk communication campaigns to address this population. Furthermore, the study revealed that those that were non-Jewish (as compared to Jewish study counterparts) or that were older (19+) were more vigilant in their protective behavior (29.6% vs. 11.2% respectively for social distancing and 29.6% vs. 11.1% respectively for mask wearing). Despite a successful initial vaccination campaign in Israel, public health officials need to engage all members of the public to unremittingly observe compliance to directed health guidelines, to ensure that the results of previous governmental efforts in fighting the pandemic (such as lockdowns) will be effectively sustained, and the road to containment will be hastened.

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Disparity and Dynamics of Social Distancing Behaviors in Japan: An Investigation of mobile phone mobility data (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.31557 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Zeyu Lyu ◽

Hiroki Takikawa

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Age Groups ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Demographic Groups ◽

Fine Grained ◽

Mobility Data ◽

The Social ◽

The Government ◽

Over Time

BACKGROUND The availability of large-scale and fine-grained aggregated mobility data has allowed researchers to observe the dynamic of social distancing behaviors at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Despite the increasing attentions paid to this research agenda, limited studies have focused on the demographic factors related to mobility and the dynamics of social distancing behaviors has not been fully investigated. OBJECTIVE This study aims to assist in the design and implementation of public health policies by exploring the social distancing behaviors among various demographic groups over time. METHODS We combined several data sources, including mobile tracking data and geographical statistics, to estimate visiting population of entertainment venues across demographic groups, which can be considered as the proxy of social distancing behaviors. Then, we employed time series analyze methods to investigate how voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behaviors shift over time across demographic groups. RESULTS Our findings demonstrate distinct patterns of social distancing behaviors and their dynamics across age groups. The population in the entertainment venues comprised mainly of individuals aged 20–40 years, while according to the dynamics of the mobility index and the policy-induced behavior, among the age groups, the extent of reduction of the frequency of visiting entertainment venues during the pandemic was generally the highest among younger individuals. Also, our results indicate the importance of implementing the social distancing policy promptly to limit the spread of the COVID-19 infection. However, it should be noticed that although the policy intervention during the second wave in Japan appeared to increase the awareness of the severity of the pandemic and concerns regarding COVID-19, its direct impact has been largely decreased could only last for a short time. CONCLUSIONS At the time we wrote this paper, in Japan, the number of daily confirmed cases was continuously increasing. Thus, this study provides a timely reference for decision makers about the current situation of policy-induced compliance behaviors. On the one hand, age-dependent disparity requires target mitigation strategies to increase the intention of elderly individuals to adopt mobility restriction behaviors. On the other hand, considering the decreasing impact of self-restriction recommendations, the government should employ policy interventions that limit the resurgence of cases, especially by imposing stronger, stricter social distancing interventions, as they are necessary to promote social distancing behaviors and mitigate the transmission of COVID-19. CLINICALTRIAL None

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Premature mortality attributable to COVID-19: potential years of life lost in 17 countries around the world, January–August 2020

BMC Public Health ◽

10.1186/s12889-021-12377-1 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Maider Pagola Ugarte ◽

Souzana Achilleos ◽

Annalisa Quattrocchi ◽

John Gabel ◽

Ourania Kolokotroni ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Age Groups ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

The United States ◽

Cape Verde ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Demographic Groups ◽

The World ◽

The Usa ◽

Research Consortium ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]). Methods Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy. Results As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18–185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112–1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups. Conclusions Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality.

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Mortality and years of life lost to suicide in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, 2000-2015

Acta Scientiarum Health Sciences ◽

10.4025/actascihealthsci.v41i1.45972 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 41 ◽

pp. e45972

Author(s):

Emelynne Gabrielly de Oliveira Santos ◽

Kelly Graziani Giacchero Vedana ◽

Isabelle Ribeiro Barbosa

Keyword(s):

Ecological Study ◽

Black People ◽

Rio Grande ◽

The Elderly ◽

Support Needs ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Historical Series ◽

And Gender ◽

Epidemiological Profile ◽

Epidemiological Characteristics

Analyze the epidemiological profile of and years of life lost to suicide in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, from 2000 to 2015. This is an ecological study in which data on death were sourced from the Mortality Information System. Years of Potential Life Lost were calculated over the historical series. A total of 2,266 deaths by suicide were analyzed, identified during the period, with the most frequent cases being those occurring at home, by hanging, among men, black people, single people and the elderly. More Years of Potential Life Lost were counted in the economically active age group (30-39 years old). Thus, recognizing the epidemiological characteristics of suicide in Rio Grande do Norte may guide more effective actions and strategies targeting risk populations and reinforces the need for further studies focusing on regions with the highest rates in the state. Moreover, mental health care must be adapted to age and gender, besides approaching social support needs and feeling of belonging.

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Determining the optimal allocation of time among work, sports, internet use, and sleep

International Journal of Social Economics ◽

10.1108/ijse-08-2015-0215 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 44 (12) ◽

pp. 2067-2085

Author(s):

Nissim Ben David ◽

Aviad Tur-Sinai

Keyword(s):

Time Allocation ◽

Internet Use ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

Traditional Approach ◽

Target Function ◽

Optimal Time ◽

Content Type ◽

Demographic Groups ◽

Actual Time ◽

Allocation Of Time

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to extract the optimal time allocation of weekly hours among work, sleep, sports, and internet use for 16 different demographic groups. Design/methodology/approach The agent wishes to minimize the gap between his or her actual and optimal allocation for each activity. His or her actual allocation of time for each activity is affected by his or her allocations for other activities and by exogenous variables. A system of simultaneous equations is constructed, with the four levels of time allocation as the endogenous variables. Using a cross-section database of 928 Israel residents, the authors estimate the system and predict the actual allocation of time. Inserting the forecast equations into the agents’ target function and differentiating by each actual time allocation, the authors extract the optimal time allocation for 16 different demographic groups. Findings The results make it clear that the optimal desired level of sleep hours is highest among married Jews and non-Jews of both genders, whereas the desired level of work hours is highest among female non-Jews whose children have a computer and among married males, Jewish and non-Jewish alike. Female Jews and non-Jews wish to allocate the most hours to internet use, while married males of both nationalities wish to allocate the fewest. The desired level of sports hours is highest among married and non-married Jews. Examining the effect of age on time allocation, the main findings show a very significant cutback in allocation of hours for sleep among agents at age 20.8 and an increase of about 2.5 hours of sleep among agents aged 60.8, both relative to those aged 40.8. Originality/value The original model presented here brings a non-traditional approach to the analysis of time allocation. The authors believe that each agent wishes that he or she could allocate his or her time for personal benefit on the basis of a theoretical apportionment determined on the basis of experience and tendencies. Even though an agent’s actual time allocation may be affected by many factors, he or she still has a sense of disutility when the actual allocation deviates from selected optimum.

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The Study of Water Resources Optimal Allocation of South-North Project Receiving Area

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.385-386.420 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 385-386 ◽

pp. 420-423

Author(s):

Bin Liu ◽

Jin Xia Sha ◽

Zhi Hong Yan ◽

Ting Ting Zhang

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Optimal Allocation ◽

Rapid Development ◽

Theory Building ◽

Planning Theory ◽

Water Resources Planning ◽

Multi Objective ◽

Handan City ◽

Resources Planning ◽

Water Resources Optimal Allocation

With the rapid development of economy, the shortage of water resources became more serious at the eastern of Handan city, it is important to allocate the limited water resources reasonably. Based on the multi-objective planning theory, building up the model of the optimal allocation water resources. The goal of the model targeted at the maximum benefits of the economy, the society and the environment, which solved by PSO, to acquire the water resources optimal allocation program of different guaranteed rate in 2030, and supply the basis for the water resources planning and management. The results of optimal allocation show that the PSO is feasible in the water resources optimal allocation.

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The Industrial Structure Transformation Seeks the Land Utilization Maximization Based on Qingdao City

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.209-211.632 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 209-211 ◽

pp. 632-636

Author(s):

Jun Shan Cui ◽

Wang Zhang

Keyword(s):

Optimal Allocation ◽

Industrial Structure ◽

Rapid Development ◽

Large Population ◽

Development Stage ◽

Structure Transformation ◽

Land Utilization ◽

Development Characteristic ◽

Qingdao City ◽

Countermeasures And Suggestions

Our country has a large population and limited land and is being in a rapid development stage of industrialization and urbanization of the unique national circumstances.there is an urgent requirement to carry out research which maximize the utilization of urban land and optimize the industrial structure. The industrial structure development characteristic, the insufficiency and the land utilization problem exists in Qingdao have been researched, from relative land productivity, Floor area ratio, rate of area per GDP and so on various aspects have analyzed the relationship between industrial structure transformation and optimal allocation of land，finally put forward some countermeasures and suggestions in the process of implement about the industrial structure optimization and the land utilization maximization .

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