scholarly journals Narrowing gap in regional and age-specific excess mortality in the first year and a half of COVID-19 in Hungary

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csaba G. Toth
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Vaccination Schedule ◽  
First Year ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Third ◽  
Seasonal Flu ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Second Wave

In the first year and a half of the pandemic, the excess mortality in Hungary was 28,400, which was 1,700 lower than the official statistics on COVID-19 deaths. This discrepancy can be partly explained by protective measures instated during the COVID-19 pandemic that decreased the intensity of the seasonal flu outbreak, which caused on average 3,000 deaths per year. Compared to the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the third wave showed a reduction in the differences in excess mortality between age groups and regions. The excess mortality rate for people aged 75+ fell significantly in the third wave, partly due to the vaccination schedule and the absence of a normal flu season. For people aged 40-77, the excess mortality rate rose slightly in the third wave. Between regions, excess mortality was highest in Northern Hungary and Western Transdanubia, and much lower in Central Hungary, where the capital is located. The excess mortality rate for men was almost twice as high as that for women in almost all age groups.

scholarly journals Excess mortality analysis for Germany for all three COVID-19 waves in 2020 - 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexej Weber
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Third ◽  
Baseline Mortality ◽  
Group Experiences ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Almost All ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Background and Aims: The reported case and death numbers of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are often used to estimate the impact of COVID-19. We observe that during the second half of the first and second waves, the COVID-19 deaths are significantly higher than the excess mortality. We attribute the difference to the pre-dying effect. We then compare the excess mortality to the official COVID-19 death numbers and calculate the infection fatality rates (IFRs) and the percentage of infected individuals from excess mortality for different age bands. We also compare the impact of COVID-19 to past influenza waves and analyze the vaccination effect on excess mortality. Methods: We forecast the baseline mortality from official data on deaths in Germany. Distributing a part of excess mortality into the near future, we lower the baseline simulating the pre-dying effect. From there, we compare the excess mortality to official COVID-19 deaths. From the observed mortality deficit, we estimate the percentage of infected individuals and then estimate the age-dependent IFRs. Results: In the first wave, we find an overall excess mortality of ca. 8 000. For the second wave, the overall excess mortality adds up to ca. 56 000. We find, that the pre-dying effect explains the difference between the official COVID-19 deaths and excess mortality in the second half of the waves to a high degree. Attributing the whole excess mortality to COVID-19, we find that the IFRs are significantly higher in the second wave. In the third wave, we find an excess mortality in mid-age bands which cannot be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths. For the senior band 80+, we find results in favor of a strong and positive vaccination effect for the third COVID-19 wave. Conclusions: We conclude that in the first and second COVID-19 waves, the COVID-19 deaths explain almost all excess mortality when the pre-dying effect is taken into account. In the third wave in 2021, the excess mortality is not very pronounced for the 80+ age band, probably due to vaccination. The partially unvaccinated 40-80 age group experiences a pronounced excess mortality in the third wave while there are too few official COVID-19 deaths to explain the excess. The no-vaccination scenario for the 80+ age band results in a similarly high excess mortality as for the more younger age bands, suggesting a very positive vaccination effect on reduction of COVID-19 deaths.

scholarly journals Nature and Magnitude of COVID-19 First Wave in Tamil Nadu, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Devi Priya
Keyword(s):  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Middle Age ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Group 13 ◽  
The Third ◽  
First Case ◽  
Second Wave

The first case of COVID-19 Tamil Nadu was confirmed on 7th March 2020 in Chennai after aninternational travel from Muscat. The specific objectives of the study were to analyze the trends inCOVID 19 in Tamil Nadu from March 2020 to January 2021 and examine the pattern of it sex-wiseamong the age groups. The risk of COVID-19 was accessed with the computation of positive testrate, prevalence rate and fatality rate. The prevalence rates were highest in August, with a slightdownfall in September 2020 in the state. The positivity test rate was high in June and July. Then itstarted declining and has been one percent in January. About 83 percent of the occurrence of thevirus was among the middle age group, 13 percent among the elderly and four percent among thechildren. Intensifying immunity boosters, personal and public hygiene, vaccination on a large scaleprobably would contain the second wave and prohibit the third wave for the survival of humanity

Tone of Postcards in Increasing Survey Response Rates

2004 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 444-448 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Price ◽  
Faith Yingling ◽  
Eileen Walsh ◽  
Judy Murnan ◽  
Joseph A. Dake
Keyword(s):  
Elementary School ◽  
Response Rates ◽  
Survey Response ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Mail Surveys ◽  
The Third ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Second Wave

This study assessed differences in response rates to a series of three-wave mail surveys when amiable or insistently worded postcards were the third wave of the mailing. Three studies were conducted; one with a sample of 600 health commissioners, one with a sample of 680 vascular nurses, and one with 600 elementary school secretaries. The combined response rates for the first and second wave mailings were 65.8%, 67.6%, and 62.4%, respectively. A total of 308 amiable and 308 insistent postcards were sent randomly to nonrespondents as the third wave mailing. Overall, there were 41 amiable and 52 insistent postcards returned, not significantly different by chi-square test. However, a separate chi-square test for one of the three studies, the nurses' study, did find a significant difference in favor of the insistently worded postcards.

scholarly journals Feminizm amerykański trzeciej fali – zmiana i kontynuacja

2018 ◽  
pp. 19-27
Author(s):  
Grażyna STRNAD
Keyword(s):  
Gender Stereotypes ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Social Role ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Equal Rights ◽  
The Third ◽  
American Society ◽  
The Right ◽  
Second Wave

The history of American women fighting for equal rights dates back to the 18th century, when in Boston, in 1770, they voiced the demand that the status of women be changed. Abigail Adams, Sarah Grimke, Angelina Grimke and Frances Wright are considered to have pioneered American feminism. An organized suffrage movement is assumed to have originated at the convention Elizabeth Stanton organized in Seneca Falls in 1848. This convention passed a Declaration of Sentiments, which criticized the American Declaration of Independence as it excluded women. The most prominent success achieved in this period was the US Congress passing the Nineteenth Amendment to the Constitution granting women the right to vote. The 1960s saw the second wave of feminism, resulting from disappointment with the hitherto promotion of equality. The second-wave feminists claimed that the legal reforms did not provide women with the changes they expected. As feminists voiced the need to feminize the world, they struggled for social customs to change and gender stereotypes to be abandoned. They criticized the patriarchal model of American society, blaming this model for reducing the social role of women to that of a mother, wife and housewife. They pointed to patriarchal ideology, rather than nature, as the source of the inequality of sexes. The leading representatives of the second wave of feminism were Betty Friedan (who founded the National Organization for Women), Kate Millet (who wrote Sexual Politics), and Shulamith Firestone (the author of The Dialectic of Sex: The Case for Feminist Revolution). The 1990s came to be called the third wave of feminism, characterized by multiple cultures, ethnic identities, races and religions, thereby becoming a heterogenic movement. The third-wave feminists, Rebecca Walker and Bell Hooks, represented groups of women who had formerly been denied the right to join the movement, for example due to racial discrimination. They believed that there was not one ‘common interest of all women’ but called for leaving no group out in the fight for the equality of women’s rights. They asked that the process of women’s emancipation that began with the first wave embrace and approve of the diversity of the multiethnic American society.

scholarly journals Population Structure and Life Table of Dog Conch (Strombus turturella) in Bangka Belitung Islands, Indonesia [Struktur Populasi dan Tabel Hidup Siput Gonggong (Strombus turturella) di Kepulauan Bangka Belitung, Indonesia]

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Okto Supratman ◽  
Tati Suryati Syamsudin
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Life Table ◽  
High Mortality ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
First Year ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Growth Coefficient ◽  
Recruitment Time

AbstractDog Conch (Strombus turturella) has an essential economic value in Bangka Belitung Islands. Allegedly, the population of Dog Conch is decreasing due to overexploitation. The purpose of this study is to provide information related to the distribution of long frequency, growth pattern, age group, recruitment time estimation and life table of Dog Conch. This research took place on the coast of Tukak Village and Anak Air Island, Bangka Belitung Islands. Samples of Dog Conch were taken using 3x3 m2 square. The shell length of Dog Conch found ranged between 18.18 to 77.49 mm, consisting of three age groups. Asymptotic length value (L∞), growth coefficient (K) and theoretical age on zero-length (t0) were 83.94 mm, 0.79/year and -0.152 sequentially. In the first year, Dog Conch grows to 50.18 mm and slows down when it grows older until it is 13 years old. The proportion of high mortality rate was at 1 to 2 years old and 3 to 4 years old or in adult individuals, while the highest life expectancy rate was in the age group of 0-1-year old or young individuals. It indicated that the high mortality rate was in the group in which people use to consume or sell in the marketsAbstrakSiput gonggong (Strombus turturella) memiliki nilai ekonomis penting di Kepulauan Bangka Belitung. Diduga populasi siput gonggong semakin menurun akibat dari eksploitasi berlebihan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk memberikan informasi terkait distribusi frekuensi panjang, pola pertumbuhan, kelompok umur, estimasi waktu rekruitmen dan tabel hidup siput gonggong. Lokasi penelitian berada di Pesisir Desa Tukak dan Pulau Anak Air, Kepulauan Bangka Belitung.Pengambilan sampel siput gonggong dilakukan dengan menggunakan kuadrat 3x3 m2. Panjang cangkang siput gonggong yang ditemukan berkisar antara 18.18 s.d 77.49 mm yang terdiri atas 3 kelompok umur. Nilai panjang asymptotic (L∞), koefisien pertumbuhan (K) dan umur teoritis ketika panjang sama dengan nol (t0) adalah 83.94 mm, 0.79/tahun dan -0.152 secara berurutan. Pada tahun pertama siput gonggong mengalami pertumbuhan, mencapai 50.18 mm dan melambat ketika umur semakin tua hingga umur 13 tahun. Proporsi laju kematian tinggi terdapat pada umur 1 s.d 2 tahun dan 3 s.d 4 tahun atau pada individu dewasa, sedangkan nilai harapan hidup tertinggi terdapat pada kelompok umur 0-1 tahun atau individu muda. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa kematian tertinggi terdapat pada kelompok umur yang telah diambil oleh masyarakat untuk dikonsumsi dan dijual ke pasaran.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Variants on the Second Wave in India and Subsequent Discretion of Possibilities of the Third Wave

2021 ◽  
pp. 115-126
Author(s):  
Sudarshan Ramaswamy ◽  
Meera Dhuria ◽  
Sumedha M. Joshi ◽  
Deepa H Velankar
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Focal Points ◽  
Current Analysis ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Insight Into

Introduction: Epidemiological comprehension of the COVID-19 situation in India can be of great help in early prediction of any such indications in other countries and possibilities of the third wave in India as well. It is essential to understand the impact of variant strains in the perspective of the rise in daily cases during the second wave – Whether the rise in cases witnessed is due to the reinfections or the surge is dominated by emergence of mutants/variants and reasons for the same. Overall objective of this study is to predict early epidemiological indicators which can potentially lead to COVID-19 third wave in India. Methodology: We analyzed both the first and second waves of COVID-19 in India and using the data of India’s SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing, we segregated the impact of the Older Variant (OV) and the other major variants (VOI / VOC).  Applying Kermack–McKendrick SIR model to the segregated data progression of the epidemic in India was plotted in the form of proportion of people infected. An equation to explain herd immunity thresholds was generated and further analyzed to predict the possibilities of the third wave. Results: Considerable difference in ate of progression of the first and second wave was seen. The study also ascertains that the rate of infection spread is higher in Delta variant and is expected to have a higher threshold (>2 times) for herd immunity as compared to the OV. Conclusion: Likelihood of the occurrence of the third wave seems unlikely based on the current analysis of the situation, however the possibilities cannot be ruled out. Understanding the epidemiological details of the first and second wave helped in understanding the focal points responsible for the surge in cases during the second wave and has given further insight into the future.

scholarly journals ANÁLISIS DEL CRECIMIENTO Y LA MORTALIDAD DE ANISOTREMUS INTERRUPTUS (GILL) (PERCIFORMES: HAEMULIDAE) EN LA COSTA DE COLIMA, MÉXICO

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaine Espino Barr ◽  
Manuel Gallardo Cabello ◽  
Fernando González Orozco ◽  
Arturo Garcia Boa
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Growth Parameters ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Condition Index ◽  
First Year ◽  
The Third ◽  
Second Year ◽  
First Year Of Life ◽  
Mortality Analysis

This paper deals with the growth and mortality analysis of the burrito grunt A n i s o t remus interru p t u s on the coast of Colima, México. The estimated growth parameters are: L¥ = 50.59 cm; W¥ = 5,051.04 g; k = 0.147 years- 1; to = -0.916 years; A0 . 9 5 = 19.46 years. Most of the growth occurred during the first year of life, when the grunt grows 12.52 cm, the second year it grows 4.95 cm and the third, 4.60 cm. The highest value of the condition index took place between February and September. The total mortality rate (Z) was calculated as 0.53 years- 1. These values are basic for the plan of administration of the fishery of this species.

scholarly journals Characteristics of mortality in the Orenburg region population in 2011-2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-104
Author(s):  
Evgenii L. Borschuk ◽  
Dmitrii N. Begun ◽  
Tatyana V. Begun
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Orenburg Region ◽  
The Third ◽  
Circulatory System Diseases ◽  
External Causes

Objectives - to study the mortality indicators, their dynamics and structure, in the population of the Orenburg region in the period of 2011-2017. Material and methods. The study was conducted using the data from the territorial authority of statistics in the Orenburg region in the period from 2011 to 2017. The analytical, demographic and statistical methods were implemented for the study of the demographic indicators. Results. Cities and municipal settlements of the Orenburg region with high mortality indicators were included in the second and fourth clusters during the cluster analysis. The first and third clusters included cities and municipal settlements with an average mortality. The most favorable position has the Orenburg area with the lowest mortality rate in the region in 2017 - 8.4%. The dynamics of mortality rates among the male and female population tends to decrease, more pronounced dynamics is in men. Though, the male population is characterized by higher mortality rates in all age groups. The leading position among the causes of death is taken by diseases of the circulatory system (46.3% of the total mortality). The second position is occupied by tumors (17.2%), the third - by external causes (8.4%). Mortality from circulatory system diseases and from external causes has reduced. The dynamics of mortality from tumors does not change significantly. The rank of leading causes of death is not identical in the clusters: in the third and fourth clusters, the other causes occupy the second place in the structure of mortality, while tumors occupy the third. Conclusion. In the Orenburg region, the mortality rate is higher than overage in the Russian Federation by 0.9 per 1000 people. The study revealed significant territorial differences in the mortality rates. In general, the mortality among men in all age groups is higher than the mortality of women. The mortality rate from diseases of the circulatory system plays the leading role in the structure of mortality, but has the tendency for decline. Until 2006, the mortality from external causes ranked the second place, now the second place is taken by death from tumors The mortality from external causes is decreasing; mortality from tumors does not change significantly. The obtained results could be used by local authorities in developing the program of public health protection and assessing its effectiveness.

scholarly journals The Foucault Effect in Organization Studies

2017 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sverre Raffnsøe ◽  
Andrea Mennicken ◽  
Peter Miller
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
The Self ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Organization Studies ◽  
Linguistic Turn ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Past ◽  
Organizational Scholarship ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Since the establishment of Organization Studies in 1980, Michel Foucault’s oeuvre has had a remarkable and continuing influence on its field. This article traces the different ways in which organizational scholars have engaged with Foucault’s writings over the past thirty years or so. We identify four overlapping waves of influence. Drawing on Foucault’s Discipline and Punish, the first wave focused on the impact of discipline, and techniques of surveillance and subjugation, on organizational practices and power relations. Part of a much wider ‘linguistic’ turn in the second half of the twentieth century, the second wave led to a focus on discourses as intermediaries that condition ways of viewing and acting. This wave drew mainly on Foucault’s early writings on language and discourse. The third wave was inspired by Foucault’s seminal lectures on governmentality towards the end of the 1970s. Here, an important body of international research investigating governmental technologies operating on subjects as free persons in sites such as education, accounting, medicine and psychiatry emerged. The fourth and last wave arose out of a critical engagement with earlier Foucauldian organizational scholarship and sought to develop a more positive conception of subjectivity. This wave draws in particular on Foucault’s work on asceticism and techniques of the self towards the end of his life. Drawing on Deleuze and Butler, the article conceives the Foucault effect in organization studies as an immanent cause and a performative effect. We argue for the need to move beyond the tired dichotomies between discipline and autonomy, compliance and resistance, power and freedom that, at least to some extent, still hamper organization studies. We seek to overcome such dichotomies by further pursuing newly emerging lines of Foucauldian research that investigate processes of organizing, calculating and economizing characterized by a differential structuring of freedom, performative and indirect agency.

The Third Wave

2018 ◽  
pp. 109-112
Author(s):  
Emily Ruth Rutter
Keyword(s):  
African American ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Third ◽  
Way Of Knowing ◽  
Contemporary Writers ◽  
Second Wave

In the second wave of black baseball works, African American playwrights, poets, and novelists uncovered an archive of feelings replete with the particular pains and pleasures of segregated life. The contemporary writers in the third wave place similar faith in literature as a way of knowing marginalized histories, while more deliberately foregrounding their own roles as mediators and curators of these histories. In ...

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