scholarly journals Excess mortality analysis for Germany for all three COVID-19 waves in 2020 - 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexej Weber
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Third ◽  
Baseline Mortality ◽  
Group Experiences ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Almost All ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Background and Aims: The reported case and death numbers of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are often used to estimate the impact of COVID-19. We observe that during the second half of the first and second waves, the COVID-19 deaths are significantly higher than the excess mortality. We attribute the difference to the pre-dying effect. We then compare the excess mortality to the official COVID-19 death numbers and calculate the infection fatality rates (IFRs) and the percentage of infected individuals from excess mortality for different age bands. We also compare the impact of COVID-19 to past influenza waves and analyze the vaccination effect on excess mortality. Methods: We forecast the baseline mortality from official data on deaths in Germany. Distributing a part of excess mortality into the near future, we lower the baseline simulating the pre-dying effect. From there, we compare the excess mortality to official COVID-19 deaths. From the observed mortality deficit, we estimate the percentage of infected individuals and then estimate the age-dependent IFRs. Results: In the first wave, we find an overall excess mortality of ca. 8 000. For the second wave, the overall excess mortality adds up to ca. 56 000. We find, that the pre-dying effect explains the difference between the official COVID-19 deaths and excess mortality in the second half of the waves to a high degree. Attributing the whole excess mortality to COVID-19, we find that the IFRs are significantly higher in the second wave. In the third wave, we find an excess mortality in mid-age bands which cannot be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths. For the senior band 80+, we find results in favor of a strong and positive vaccination effect for the third COVID-19 wave. Conclusions: We conclude that in the first and second COVID-19 waves, the COVID-19 deaths explain almost all excess mortality when the pre-dying effect is taken into account. In the third wave in 2021, the excess mortality is not very pronounced for the 80+ age band, probably due to vaccination. The partially unvaccinated 40-80 age group experiences a pronounced excess mortality in the third wave while there are too few official COVID-19 deaths to explain the excess. The no-vaccination scenario for the 80+ age band results in a similarly high excess mortality as for the more younger age bands, suggesting a very positive vaccination effect on reduction of COVID-19 deaths.

scholarly journals Narrowing gap in regional and age-specific excess mortality in the first year and a half of COVID-19 in Hungary

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csaba G. Toth
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Vaccination Schedule ◽  
First Year ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Third ◽  
Seasonal Flu ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Second Wave

In the first year and a half of the pandemic, the excess mortality in Hungary was 28,400, which was 1,700 lower than the official statistics on COVID-19 deaths. This discrepancy can be partly explained by protective measures instated during the COVID-19 pandemic that decreased the intensity of the seasonal flu outbreak, which caused on average 3,000 deaths per year. Compared to the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the third wave showed a reduction in the differences in excess mortality between age groups and regions. The excess mortality rate for people aged 75+ fell significantly in the third wave, partly due to the vaccination schedule and the absence of a normal flu season. For people aged 40-77, the excess mortality rate rose slightly in the third wave. Between regions, excess mortality was highest in Northern Hungary and Western Transdanubia, and much lower in Central Hungary, where the capital is located. The excess mortality rate for men was almost twice as high as that for women in almost all age groups.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Variants on the Second Wave in India and Subsequent Discretion of Possibilities of the Third Wave

2021 ◽  
pp. 115-126
Author(s):  
Sudarshan Ramaswamy ◽  
Meera Dhuria ◽  
Sumedha M. Joshi ◽  
Deepa H Velankar
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Focal Points ◽  
Current Analysis ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Insight Into

Introduction: Epidemiological comprehension of the COVID-19 situation in India can be of great help in early prediction of any such indications in other countries and possibilities of the third wave in India as well. It is essential to understand the impact of variant strains in the perspective of the rise in daily cases during the second wave – Whether the rise in cases witnessed is due to the reinfections or the surge is dominated by emergence of mutants/variants and reasons for the same. Overall objective of this study is to predict early epidemiological indicators which can potentially lead to COVID-19 third wave in India. Methodology: We analyzed both the first and second waves of COVID-19 in India and using the data of India’s SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing, we segregated the impact of the Older Variant (OV) and the other major variants (VOI / VOC).  Applying Kermack–McKendrick SIR model to the segregated data progression of the epidemic in India was plotted in the form of proportion of people infected. An equation to explain herd immunity thresholds was generated and further analyzed to predict the possibilities of the third wave. Results: Considerable difference in ate of progression of the first and second wave was seen. The study also ascertains that the rate of infection spread is higher in Delta variant and is expected to have a higher threshold (>2 times) for herd immunity as compared to the OV. Conclusion: Likelihood of the occurrence of the third wave seems unlikely based on the current analysis of the situation, however the possibilities cannot be ruled out. Understanding the epidemiological details of the first and second wave helped in understanding the focal points responsible for the surge in cases during the second wave and has given further insight into the future.

scholarly journals The Foucault Effect in Organization Studies

2017 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sverre Raffnsøe ◽  
Andrea Mennicken ◽  
Peter Miller
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
The Self ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Organization Studies ◽  
Linguistic Turn ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Past ◽  
Organizational Scholarship ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Since the establishment of Organization Studies in 1980, Michel Foucault’s oeuvre has had a remarkable and continuing influence on its field. This article traces the different ways in which organizational scholars have engaged with Foucault’s writings over the past thirty years or so. We identify four overlapping waves of influence. Drawing on Foucault’s Discipline and Punish, the first wave focused on the impact of discipline, and techniques of surveillance and subjugation, on organizational practices and power relations. Part of a much wider ‘linguistic’ turn in the second half of the twentieth century, the second wave led to a focus on discourses as intermediaries that condition ways of viewing and acting. This wave drew mainly on Foucault’s early writings on language and discourse. The third wave was inspired by Foucault’s seminal lectures on governmentality towards the end of the 1970s. Here, an important body of international research investigating governmental technologies operating on subjects as free persons in sites such as education, accounting, medicine and psychiatry emerged. The fourth and last wave arose out of a critical engagement with earlier Foucauldian organizational scholarship and sought to develop a more positive conception of subjectivity. This wave draws in particular on Foucault’s work on asceticism and techniques of the self towards the end of his life. Drawing on Deleuze and Butler, the article conceives the Foucault effect in organization studies as an immanent cause and a performative effect. We argue for the need to move beyond the tired dichotomies between discipline and autonomy, compliance and resistance, power and freedom that, at least to some extent, still hamper organization studies. We seek to overcome such dichotomies by further pursuing newly emerging lines of Foucauldian research that investigate processes of organizing, calculating and economizing characterized by a differential structuring of freedom, performative and indirect agency.

Render unto Caesar Just a Little Bit Longer: The Relationship between Constitutional Reforms and Executive Survival

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Tofigh Maboudi ◽  
Ghazal P. Nadi ◽  
Todd A. Eisenstadt
Keyword(s):  
Term Limits ◽  
Institutional Constraints ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Constitutional Order ◽  
The Third ◽  
Constitutional Reforms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Since the third wave of democracy, term limits have become a popular fixture of most constitutions intended to constrain the executive. Yet, recent constitutional reforms around the world show that presidents seeking re-election sometimes overturn the entire constitutional order to extend their power. What is the impact of these constitutional manipulations on the longevity of the executive in office? Using survival analysis of all political leaders and national constitutions from 1875 to 2015, this article demonstrates, for the first time, that when ‘authoritarian-aspiring’ presidents remove constitutional term limits, they increase their stay in office by more than 40%. Our findings contrast with a widely held position in the comparative authoritarian literature suggesting that dictators survive longer under institutional constraints. On the contrary, we argue that by removing constitutional barriers, rulers consolidate more power at the expense of their most ambitious allies and can stay in power longer.

Tone of Postcards in Increasing Survey Response Rates

2004 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 444-448 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Price ◽  
Faith Yingling ◽  
Eileen Walsh ◽  
Judy Murnan ◽  
Joseph A. Dake
Keyword(s):  
Elementary School ◽  
Response Rates ◽  
Survey Response ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Mail Surveys ◽  
The Third ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Second Wave

This study assessed differences in response rates to a series of three-wave mail surveys when amiable or insistently worded postcards were the third wave of the mailing. Three studies were conducted; one with a sample of 600 health commissioners, one with a sample of 680 vascular nurses, and one with 600 elementary school secretaries. The combined response rates for the first and second wave mailings were 65.8%, 67.6%, and 62.4%, respectively. A total of 308 amiable and 308 insistent postcards were sent randomly to nonrespondents as the third wave mailing. Overall, there were 41 amiable and 52 insistent postcards returned, not significantly different by chi-square test. However, a separate chi-square test for one of the three studies, the nurses' study, did find a significant difference in favor of the insistently worded postcards.

scholarly journals Genetic and Epigenetic Variations of SARS-Cov-2 and Host Genes and Their Impact in Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammed Elayadeth Meethal ◽  
Punnoth Poonkuzhi Naseef ◽  
Mohamed Saheer Kuruniyan ◽  
Mansoor C Abdulla ◽  
Shyju Ollakkod ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rna Virus ◽  
Membrane Surface ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
Surface Protein ◽  
Genetic Variations ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 ◽  
Novel Variants ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

The global COVID-19 pandemic claiming global spread continues to evolve, now to the verge of a third wave of outbreak possibly caused by the novel variants of concern of severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The test positivity rate (TPR) and case fatal-ity rate (CFR) have increased steeply in the second wave of COVID-19 compared to the first. From the example of Kerala, a state in southern India, positivity increased from 1.33% at the peak of wave one in 10th June 2020 to 13.45% during 10th June 2021 in the second wave of pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 is an enveloped single-stranded RNA virus. Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme-2 (ACE-2) is a trans membrane surface protein present on multiple types of cells in the human body to which the viral spike protein attaches. Genetic variations in the SARS-CoV-2 and ACE2 receptor can affect the transmission, clinical manifestations, mortality and the efficacy of drugs and vaccines for COVID-19. Mutations are the primary cause of genetic variations. Given the high TPR and CFR, it is necessary to understand the variations of SARS-CoV-2 and cellular receptors of SARS-CoV-2 at the molecular level. In this review, we summarize the impact of genetic and ep-igenetic variations in determining COVID-19 pathogenesis and disease outcome.

scholarly journals Feminizm amerykański trzeciej fali – zmiana i kontynuacja

2018 ◽  
pp. 19-27
Author(s):  
Grażyna STRNAD
Keyword(s):  
Gender Stereotypes ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Social Role ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Equal Rights ◽  
The Third ◽  
American Society ◽  
The Right ◽  
Second Wave

The history of American women fighting for equal rights dates back to the 18th century, when in Boston, in 1770, they voiced the demand that the status of women be changed. Abigail Adams, Sarah Grimke, Angelina Grimke and Frances Wright are considered to have pioneered American feminism. An organized suffrage movement is assumed to have originated at the convention Elizabeth Stanton organized in Seneca Falls in 1848. This convention passed a Declaration of Sentiments, which criticized the American Declaration of Independence as it excluded women. The most prominent success achieved in this period was the US Congress passing the Nineteenth Amendment to the Constitution granting women the right to vote. The 1960s saw the second wave of feminism, resulting from disappointment with the hitherto promotion of equality. The second-wave feminists claimed that the legal reforms did not provide women with the changes they expected. As feminists voiced the need to feminize the world, they struggled for social customs to change and gender stereotypes to be abandoned. They criticized the patriarchal model of American society, blaming this model for reducing the social role of women to that of a mother, wife and housewife. They pointed to patriarchal ideology, rather than nature, as the source of the inequality of sexes. The leading representatives of the second wave of feminism were Betty Friedan (who founded the National Organization for Women), Kate Millet (who wrote Sexual Politics), and Shulamith Firestone (the author of The Dialectic of Sex: The Case for Feminist Revolution). The 1990s came to be called the third wave of feminism, characterized by multiple cultures, ethnic identities, races and religions, thereby becoming a heterogenic movement. The third-wave feminists, Rebecca Walker and Bell Hooks, represented groups of women who had formerly been denied the right to join the movement, for example due to racial discrimination. They believed that there was not one ‘common interest of all women’ but called for leaving no group out in the fight for the equality of women’s rights. They asked that the process of women’s emancipation that began with the first wave embrace and approve of the diversity of the multiethnic American society.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF SMES CREDIT RESTRUCTURING POLICY IN ECONOMIC RECOVERY DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 405
Author(s):  
Lussi Agustin ◽  
Moh. Yusron Solikin ◽  
Zunairoh .
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Top Down ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Industry Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis seberapa maksimal proses kebijakan retrukturisasi Kredit UMKM dalam Pemulihan Ekonomi di Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Kondisi perekonomian global sedang mengalami goncangan hebat akibat mewabahnya Covid-19. Dampak dari pandemic ini sangat mempengaruhi segala aspek terutama pada kondisi Kesehatan dan perekonomian suatu negara, tidak terkecuali Indonesia. Secara keseluruhan, hampir semua sektor industry mengalami goncangan dan tidak terkecuali sektor UMKM. Maka dari itu dikeluarkanlah kebijakan retrukturisasi Kredit UMKM guna mendorong optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi pada perbankan dan menjaga stabilitas sistem keuangan serta mendukung pertumbuhan perekonomian. Program restrukturisasi kredit menjadi program dari OJK yang dapat diterapkan oleh perbankan kepada UMKM. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode kualitatif dengan menggunakan studi empiris dari penelitian terdahulu serta peraturan-peraturan terkait dengan restrukturisasi kredit yang dikeluarkan oleh Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa implementasi kebijakan restrukturisai kredit bagi UMKM sudah berjalan dan digunakan oleh para pelaku UMKM. Kemudian berdasarkan implementasinya kebijakan ini merupakan kebijakan top-down dimana memerlukan banyak Lembaga untuk bekerja sama dan keputusan berasal dari Peraturan pemerintah baru di teruskan ke Lembaga-lembaga lain di bawahnya hingga informasinya sampai dan bisa dirasakan oleh para UMKM.  This research aims to analyze the policy of restructuring SMEs Credit in Economic Recovery during the Covid-19 Pandemic. The global economy is experiencing severe shocks due to the outbreak of Covid-19. The impact of this pandemic greatly affects all aspects, especially on the health and economic condition of a country, not least Indonesia. Overall, almost all industry sectors are experiencing shocks and are no exception to the SMEs sector. Therefore, the policy of restructuring SMEs Credit was issued to encourage optimization of intermediation function in banking and maintain the financial system stability and support economic growth. Credit restructuring program becomes a program from OJK that can be applied by banks to SMEs. The method used in this research is a qualitative method using empirical studies from previous research as well as regulations related to credit restructuring issued by the Financial Services Authority. The results of this research show that the implementation of credit restructuring policy for SMEs is already running and used by SMEs. Then based on the difference in implementation of this policy is a top-down policy that requires many Institutions to cooperate and decisions derived from the new government regulations are forwarded to other institutions under it until the information reaches and can be felt by SMEs.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of widespread respirator use in curtailing COVID-19 transmission in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 210699
Author(s):  
Calistus N. Ngonghala ◽  
James R. Knitter ◽  
Lucas Marinacci ◽  
Matthew H. Bonds ◽  
Abba B. Gumel
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Respiratory Protection ◽  
The Third ◽  
Surgical Masks ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Baseline Levels ◽  
The Impact

Dynamic models are used to assess the impact of three types of face masks (cloth masks, surgical/procedure masks and respirators) in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. We showed that the pandemic would have failed to establish in the USA if a nationwide mask mandate, based on using respirators with moderately high compliance, had been implemented during the first two months of the pandemic. The other mask types would fail to prevent the pandemic from becoming established. When mask usage compliance is low to moderate, respirators are far more effective in reducing disease burden. Using data from the third wave, we showed that the epidemic could be eliminated in the USA if at least 40% of the population consistently wore respirators in public. Surgical masks can also lead to elimination, but requires compliance of at least 55%. Daily COVID-19 mortality could be eliminated in the USA by June or July 2021 if 95% of the population opted for either respirators or surgical masks from the beginning of the third wave. We showed that the prospect of effective control or elimination of the pandemic using mask-based strategy is greatly enhanced if combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that significantly reduce the baseline community transmission. By slightly modifying the model to include the effect of a vaccine against COVID-19 and waning vaccine-derived and natural immunity, this study shows that the waning of such immunity could trigger multiple new waves of the pandemic in the USA. The number, severity and duration of the projected waves depend on the quality of mask type used and the level of increase in the baseline levels of other NPIs used in the community during the onset of the third wave of the pandemic in the USA. Specifically, no severe fourth or subsequent wave of the pandemic will be recorded in the USA if surgical masks or respirators are used, particularly if the mask use strategy is combined with an increase in the baseline levels of other NPIs. This study further emphasizes the role of human behaviour towards masking on COVID-19 burden, and highlights the urgent need to maintain a healthy stockpile of highly effective respiratory protection, particularly respirators, to be made available to the general public in times of future outbreaks or pandemics of respiratory diseases that inflict severe public health and socio-economic burden on the population.

The Third Wave

2018 ◽  
pp. 109-112
Author(s):  
Emily Ruth Rutter
Keyword(s):  
African American ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Third ◽  
Way Of Knowing ◽  
Contemporary Writers ◽  
Second Wave

In the second wave of black baseball works, African American playwrights, poets, and novelists uncovered an archive of feelings replete with the particular pains and pleasures of segregated life. The contemporary writers in the third wave place similar faith in literature as a way of knowing marginalized histories, while more deliberately foregrounding their own roles as mediators and curators of these histories. In ...

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