Pandemic will alter consumption patterns in China

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Impact ◽  
Psychological Effect ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Direct Effects ◽  
Household Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Rate Of Decline

Significance The rate of decline has slowed in recent months, but household demand remains weak. Consumer optimism is more positive than in many other countries hit by the pandemic, but remains negative for many discretionary categories. Impacts The government’s abandonment of a growth target for this year indicates that the priority will be employment rather than GDP growth. The direct effects of fresh COVID-19 outbreaks will be local, but their psychological impact will affect consumption nationwide. The government is unlikely to worry about the effect on economic ‘rebalancing’ unless signs emerge that this is not just temporary. The young are disproportionate drivers of consumption in China; the psychological effect of the pandemic on these cohorts may be decisive.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Ghana's IMF bailout to persist despite souring ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Electricity Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.

Weak consumption may thwart Slovak growth plans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's latest GDP expectations for 2016-19. Significance On September 19, days before surviving a parliamentary no-confidence vote, the government announced GDP projections for 2016-19, based on improvements in consumption growth and the labour market, where registered unemployment hovers at historically low levels. Despite its weakened position following the recent departure of junior coalition partner Siet, Smer-Social Democracy (SD) is upbeat about the prospects for robust GDP growth in 2016, revising its forecast upwards to 3.6% from 3.2%. Impacts Industrial output, GDP and inflationary pressures may pick up post-2018, as consumers spend more and auto industry investments create jobs. The government may miss its targets in the short term, but fiscal deficits should remain below the EU limit of 3% of GDP in 2016-18. More public-private partnerships, modelled on the Bratislava ring-road, plus EU funding, may support infrastructure investment after 2017.

Greek economy could slip into recession again

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
Target Set ◽  
The Government

Subject Greece’s stagnating economy. Significance The economy failed to turn a corner in 2016, registering zero real GDP growth. The ambitious 2.7% GDP growth target, set for 2017 by the government and Greece’s lenders, now looks hard to achieve. However, the economy’s stabilisation, albeit at a level much lower than before the crisis, is evident. Impacts A swift end to the bailout review might lift uncertainty and improve the investment climate, allowing both domestic and private investment. Inclusion into the ECB’s quantitative easing programme would help inject additional liquidity into the economy, stimulating credit growth. Over the medium term, rising protectionism in the United States and Europe might restrict trade, reducing Greek goods and services exports.

Chile spending commitments may hamper fiscal prudence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fiscal Prudence

Subject The draft 2019 budget. Significance The government budget for 2019, announced by President Sebastian Pinera on September 29, is the most austere in almost a decade. It aims to restore Chile’s long-standing reputation for exemplary fiscal conduct, which in recent years has been undermined by increases in government spending that outstrip GDP growth, and the resulting increase in borrowing. Impacts Credit rating agencies have indicated that the draft budget is in line with their concerns about Chile’s rising borrowing requirement. The ongoing decline in fiscal revenues from copper underlines Chile’s need to diversify its economy. The government will be hard-pressed to meet its fiscal goals if, as current forecasts suggest, GDP growth weakens through to 2020.

China may struggle to achieve a job-rich GDP recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.

Weak economy prompts foreign outreach in Mongolia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Text Message ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Legal Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Mining Projects ◽  
The Government

Significance GDP growth has slowed from a peak of 17.5% in 2011 to around 7.0% last year. Foreign investment, which has driven growth, has fallen steeply and external conditions have weakened. Legislative moves to revive interest have had little to no effect. The government in Ulan Bator is talking to the IMF about possible assistance, and Mongolians have been polled by text message in a bid to confirm popular support for getting crucial mining projects moving again. Impacts Ulan Bator has to address the recent jailing of foreign nationals and the negative impact on Mongolia's image. The text message referendum suggests refinement is needed to make future initiatives in direct democracy credible. Criticism of the legal process leading to imprisonment of former mining executives could result in changes to the law.

Mexico's weak GDP growth will outlast Pena Nieto

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Severe Problem ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject GDP growth shows no sign of improving in the short-term. Significance In its most recent update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF lowered its forecast for Mexico's 2016 GDP growth to 2.4% from 2.6% foreseen in January. This figure compares well with other Latin American countries -- notably Brazil and Venezuela -- yet it marks the continuation of a trend of meagre expansion that has characterised President Enrique Pena Nieto's time in office despite his efforts to introduce economic reforms. Impacts Further reform to encourage greater flexibility in the labour market will be key to increasing small business productivity. Low growth and a lack of prospects for the young will feed into Mexico's rising crime rates. The lack of growth could become a severe problem for the government both directly and indirectly in the 2018 election.

Taiwan government will show resolve on economy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Labour Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Plan ◽  
Inflationary Pressure ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Domestic Policies ◽  
The Government

Subject Economic policy in Taiwan. Significance The government earlier this month announced an eight-year special budget for infrastructure worth 880 billion Taiwan dollars (29 billion US dollars). It is part of an economic plan in February that aims to boost GDP growth over the next four years, signalling a push to address livelihood issues by the government of President Tsai Ing-wen, whose public support has evaporated since she took office last May. The plan's announcement follows closely on the heels of the introduction of a five-day work week in January. The controversial amendment to the labour law shortening the work week indicates a new willingness by the Tsai administration to weather public discontent in pressing forward with its economic agenda. Impacts GDP growth will get a fiscal boost, but the targeted 2.5-3.0% may still prove too ambitious. The labour reform will create inflationary pressure. Taiwan's export dependence means that domestic policies can only go so far; external demand will be crucial.

Plan to clear Greek banks’ bad debt looks feasible

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Loan Portfolios ◽  
Key Sectors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Greek Banks ◽  
Bad Debt

Subject Efforts to cleanse banks’ loan portfolios. Significance More than half of Greek bank lending is classed as ‘non-performing exposures’ (NPEs), constraining lending capacity and so putting negative pressure on GDP growth. The government says it should have a whole package of measures in place by mid-August to deal with NPEs. There have been slippages before, but this time the creditors are leaning very heavily on Athens to stick to the timetable. Impacts Bad debts will limit commercial banks’ capacity to make new loans to key sectors of the economy. This will have an adverse effect on working capital for existing businesses and their trade. Lack of liquidity will also slow new investments and construction.

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