scholarly journals The Prognosis Analysis of Liver Cirrhosis with Acute Variceal Bleeding and Validation of Current Prognostic Models: A Large Scale Retrospective Cohort Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Yan Zhao ◽  
Mudan Ren ◽  
Guifang Lu ◽  
Xinlan Lu ◽  
Yan Yin ◽  
...  

Background. Acute variceal bleeding is a major cause of death in liver cirrhosis. This large scale retrospective cohort study aims to analyze the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding and to validate the current prognostic models. Methods. Patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding were enrolled from Jan 2019 to March 2020. The independent prognostic factors for in-hospital death were identified by logistic regression analyses. Area under curves (AUCs) was compared among Child-Pugh, cirrhosis acute gastrointestinal bleeding (CAGIB) score, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) scores. Results. Overall, 379 patients with liver cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding were consecutively evaluated. The majority of the patients were males (59.1%) and the mean age of all patients were 53.7±1.3 years (range 14-89). Hepatitis B virus (HBV) was the most common underlying cause of liver cirrhosis (54.1%). 72 (19%) patients had hepatocellular carcinoma. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that age, HCC, WBC, total serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, and ALT were independently associated with in-hospital death. And the odds ratios (ORs) for in-hospital death were 1.066 (95% CI 1.017-1.118, P=0.008), 7.19 (95% CI 2.077-24.893, P=0.001), 1.123 (95% CI 1.051-1.201, P=0.001), 1.014 (95% CI 1.005-1.023, P=0.003), 1.012 (95% CI 1.004-1.021, P=0.006), and 1.005 (95% CI 1.000-1.009, P=0.036), respectively. In the whole cohort with HCC patients, the AUCs of Child-Pugh, CAGIB, MELD and NLR scores were 0.842 (95% CI 0.801-0.878), 0.840 (95% CI 0.799-0.876), 0.798 (95% CI 0.754-0.838), and 0.688 (95% CI 0.639-0.735), respectively. The differences were statistically significant between Child-Pugh and NLR scores (P=0.0118), and between CAGIB and NLR scores (P=0.0354). Conclusion. Child-Pugh and CAGIB scores showed better predictive performance for prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding than NLR scores.

Author(s):  
Qin-Guo Sun ◽  
Xue-Dong An ◽  
Ping Xie ◽  
Bo Jiang ◽  
Jia-Xing Tian ◽  
...  

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a new infectious disease associated with high mortality, and traditional Chinese medicine decoctions (TCMDs) have been widely used for the treatment of patients with COVID-19 in China; however, the impact of these decoctions on severe and critical COVID-19-related mortality has not been evaluated. Therefore, we aimed to address this gap. In this retrospective cohort study, we included inpatients diagnosed with severe/critical COVID-19 at the Tongren Hospital of Wuhan University and grouped them depending on the recipience of TCMDs (TCMD and non-TCMD groups). We conducted a propensity score-matched analysis to adjust the imbalanced variables and treatments and used logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Among 282 patients with COVID-19 who were discharged or died, 186 patients (66.0%) received TCMD treatment (TCMD cohort) and 96 (34.0%) did not (non-TCMD cohort). After propensity score matching at a 1:1 ratio, 94 TCMD users were matched to 94 non-users, and there were no significant differences in baseline clinical variables between the two groups of patients. The all-cause mortality was significantly lower in the TCMD group than in the non-TCMD group, and this trend remained valid even after matching (21.3% [20/94] vs. 39.4% [37/94]). Multivariable logistic regression model showed that disease severity (odds ratio: 0.010; 95% CI: 0.003, 0.037; [Formula: see text] < 0.001) was associated with increased odds of death and that TCMD treatment significantly decreased the odds of in-hospital death (odds ratio: 0.115; 95% CI: 0.035, 0.383; [Formula: see text] < 0.001), which was related to the duration of TCMD treatment. Our findings show that TCMD treatment may reduce the mortality in patients with severe/critical COVID-19.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Huang ◽  
Ying Sun ◽  
Yunli Xing ◽  
Cuiying Wang

Abstract Background Acute infection leads to substantial mortality in the nonagenarian population. However, the predictive efficacies of functional status and biochemical indexes for in-hospital mortality in these patients remain to be determined. Methods A single-center, retrospective cohort study was performed. Consecutive nonagenarian patients who were admitted to our department from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016 for acute infectious diseases were included. Baseline data for medical history, functional status, and biochemical indexes were obtained on admission. The outcomes of these patients during hospitalization were recorded. Predictors of in-hospital mortality were identified via logistic regression analyses. Results A total of 162 patients were included, and 46 patients died (17.2%) during hospitalization. Univariate analysis showed that the prevalence rates of atrial fibrillation (32.1%) and malignant disease (26.5%) were higher in nonagenarian patients who died during hospitalization than in those who discharged. Multivariate logistic regression analyses identified malignant disease (odds ratio [OR] 2.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10–6.78), ADL category (OR 0.82, 95% CI: 0.75–0.89) and serum albumin (OR 0.86, 95%CI 0.78–0.95) as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in nonagenarian patients hospitalized for acute infection. Conclusions Functional impairment as well as serum albumin may be independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in nonagenarian patients hospitalized for acute infectious diseases. Stratification of patients according to Barthel Index score and serum albumin is very necessary.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. e049089
Author(s):  
Marcia C Castro ◽  
Susie Gurzenda ◽  
Eduardo Marques Macário ◽  
Giovanny Vinícius A França

ObjectiveTo provide a comprehensive description of demographic, clinical and radiographic characteristics; treatment and case outcomes; and risk factors associated with in-hospital death of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in Brazil.DesignRetrospective cohort study of hospitalised patients diagnosed with COVID-19.SettingData from all hospitals across Brazil.Participants522 167 hospitalised patients in Brazil by 14 December 2020 with severe acute respiratory illness, and a confirmed diagnosis for COVID-19.Primary and secondary outcome measuresPrevalence of symptoms and comorbidities was compared by clinical outcomes and intensive care unit (ICU) admission status. Survival was assessed using Kaplan Meier survival estimates. Risk factors associated with in-hospital death were evaluated with multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.ResultsOf the 522 167 patients included in this study, 56.7% were discharged, 0.002% died of other causes, 30.7% died of causes associated with COVID-19 and 10.2% remained hospitalised. The median age of patients was 61 years (IQR, 47–73), and of non-survivors 71 years (IQR, 60–80); 292 570 patients (56.0%) were men. At least one comorbidity was present in 64.5% of patients and in 76.8% of non-survivors. From illness onset, the median times to hospital and ICU admission were 6 days (IQR, 3–9) and 7 days (IQR, 3–10), respectively; 15 days (IQR, 9–24) to death and 15 days (IQR, 11–20) to hospital discharge. Risk factors for in-hospital death included old age, Black/Brown ethnoracial self-classification, ICU admission, being male, living in the North and Northeast regions and various comorbidities. Age had the highest HRs of 5.51 (95% CI: 4.91 to 6.18) for patients≥80, compared with those ≤20.ConclusionsCharacteristics of patients and risk factors for in-hospital mortality highlight inequities of COVID-19 outcomes in Brazil. As the pandemic continues to unfold, targeted policies that address those inequities are needed to mitigate the unequal burden of COVID-19.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S262-S262
Author(s):  
Kok Hoe Chan ◽  
Bhavik Patel ◽  
Iyad Farouji ◽  
Addi Suleiman ◽  
Jihad Slim

Abstract Background Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection can lead to many different cardiovascular complications, we were interested in studying prognostic markers in patients with atrial fibrillation/flutter (A. Fib/Flutter). Methods A retrospective cohort study of patients with confirmed COVID-19 and either with existing or new onset A. Fib/Flutter who were admitted to our hospital between March 15 and May 20, 2020. Demographic, outcome and laboratory data were extracted from the electronic medical record and compared between survivors and non-survivors. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were employed to identify the prognostic markers associated with mortality in patients with A. Fib/Flutter Results The total number of confirmed COVID-19 patients during the study period was 350; 37 of them had existing or new onset A. Fib/Flutter. Twenty one (57%) expired, and 16 (43%) were discharged alive. The median age was 72 years old, ranged from 19 to 100 years old. Comorbidities were present in 33 (89%) patients, with hypertension (82%) being the most common, followed by diabetes (46%) and coronary artery disease (30%). New onset of atrial fibrillation was identified in 23 patients (70%), of whom 13 (57%) expired; 29 patients (78%) presented with atrial fibrillation with rapid ventricular response, and 2 patients (5%) with atrial flutter. Mechanical ventilation was required for 8 patients, of whom 6 expired. In univariate analysis, we found a significant difference in baseline ferritin (p=0.04), LDH (p=0.02), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (p=0.05), neutrophil-monocyte ratio (NMR) (p=0.03) and platelet (p=0.015) between survivors and non-survivors. With multivariable logistic regression analysis, the only value that had an odds of survival was a low NLR (odds ratio 0.74; 95% confidence interval 0.53–0.93). Conclusion This retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 demonstrated an association of increase NLR as risk factors for death in COVID-19 patients with A. Fib/Flutter. A high NLR has been associated with increased incidence, severity and risk for stroke in atrial fibrillation patients but to our knowledge, we are first to demonstrate the utilization in mortality predictions in COVID-19 patients with A. Fib/Flutter. Disclosures Jihad Slim, MD, Abbvie (Speaker’s Bureau)Gilead (Speaker’s Bureau)Jansen (Speaker’s Bureau)Merck (Speaker’s Bureau)ViiV (Speaker’s Bureau)


2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoe Okabayashi ◽  
Takashi Kawamura ◽  
Hisashi Noma ◽  
Kenji Wakai ◽  
Masahiko Ando ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Predicting adverse health events and implementing preventative measures are a necessary challenge. It is important for healthcare planners and policymakers to allocate the limited resource to high-risk persons. Prediction is also important for older individuals, their family members, and clinicians to prepare mentally and financially. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model for within 11-year dependent status requiring long-term nursing care or death in older adults for each sex. Methods We carried out age-specified cohort study of community dwellers in Nisshin City, Japan. The older adults aged 64 years who underwent medical check-up between 1996 and 2005 were included in the study. The primary outcome was the incidence of the psychophysically dependent status or death or by the end of the year of age 75 years. Univariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the associations between candidate predictors and the outcome. Using the variables with p-values less than 0.1, multivariable logistic regression analyses were then performed with backward stepwise elimination to determine the final predictors for the model. Results Of the 1525 female participants at baseline, 105 had an incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 15 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.763 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.714–0.813). Of the 1548 male participants at baseline, 211 had incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 16 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.735 (95% CI 0.699–0.771). Conclusions We developed a prediction model for older adults to forecast 11-year incidence of dependent status requiring nursing care or death in each sex. The predictability was fair, but we could not evaluate the external validity of this model. It could be of some help for healthcare planners, policy makers, clinicians, older individuals, and their family members to weigh the priority of support.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. van Rees ◽  
W. Hartman ◽  
J. J. M. E. Nuyttens ◽  
E. Oomen-de Hoop ◽  
J. L. A. van Vugt ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Chemoradiation with capecitabine followed by surgery is standard care for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Severe diarrhea is considered a dose-limiting toxicity of adding capecitabine to radiation therapy. The aim of this study was to describe the risk factors and the impact of body composition on severe diarrhea in patients with LARC during preoperative chemoradiation with capecitabine. Methods A single centre retrospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary referral centre. All patients treated with preoperative chemoradiation with capecitabine for LARC from 2009 to 2015 were included. Patients with locally recurrent rectal cancer who received chemoradiation for the first time were included as well. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for severe diarrhea. Results A total of 746 patients were included. Median age was 64 years (interquartile range 57–71) and 477 patients (64%) were male. All patients received a radiation dosage of 25 × 2 Gy during a period of five weeks with either concomitant capecitabine administered on radiation days or continuously during radiotherapy. In this cohort 70 patients (9%) developed severe diarrhea. In multivariable logistic regression analyses female sex (OR: 4.42, 95% CI 2.54–7.91) and age ≥ 65 (OR: 3.25, 95% CI 1.85–5.87) were the only risk factors for severe diarrhea. Conclusions Female patients and patients aged sixty-five or older had an increased risk of developing severe diarrhea during preoperative chemoradiation therapy with capecitabine. No relation was found between body composition and severe diarrhea.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xunliang Tong ◽  
Xiaomao Xu ◽  
Guoyue Lv ◽  
He Wang ◽  
Anqi Cheng ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging infectious disease that rapidly spreads worldwide and co-infection of COVID-19 and influenza may occur in some cases. We aimed to describe clinical features and outcomes of severe COVID-19 patients with co-infection of influenza virus. Methods Retrospective cohort study was performed and a total of 140 patients with severe COVID-19 were enrolled in designated wards of Sino-French New City Branch of Tongji Hospital between Feb 8th and March 15th in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. The demographic, clinical features, laboratory indices, treatment and outcomes of these patients were collected. Results Of 140 severe COVID-19 hospitalized patients, including 73 patients (52.14%) with median age 62 years were influenza virus IgM-positive and 67 patients (47.86%) with median age 66 years were influenza virus IgM-negative. 76 (54.4%) of severe COVID-19 patients were males. Chronic comorbidities consisting mainly of hypertension (45.3%), diabetes (15.8%), chronic respiratory disease (7.2%), cardiovascular disease (5.8%), malignancy (4.3%) and chronic kidney disease (2.2%). Clinical features, including fever (≥38 °C), chill, cough, chest pain, dyspnea, diarrhea and fatigue or myalgia were collected. Fatigue or myalgia was less found in COVID-19 patients with IgM-positive (33.3% vs 50/7%, P = 0.0375). Higher proportion of prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) > 42 s was observed in COVID-19 patients with influenza virus IgM-negative (43.8% vs 23.6%, P = 0.0127). Severe COVID-19 Patients with influenza virus IgM positive have a higher cumulative survivor rate than that of patients with influenza virus IgM negative (Log-rank P = 0.0308). Considering age is a potential confounding variable, difference in age was adjusted between different influenza virus IgM status groups, the HR was 0.29 (95% CI, 0.081–1.100). Similarly, difference in gender was adjusted as above, the HR was 0.262 (95% CI, 0.072–0.952) in the COX regression model. Conclusions Influenza virus IgM positive may be associated with decreasing in-hospital death.


Critical Care ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edgar Santos ◽  
Arturo Olivares-Rivera ◽  
Sebastian Major ◽  
Renán Sánchez-Porras ◽  
Lorenz Uhlmann ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective Spreading depolarizations (SD) are characterized by breakdown of transmembrane ion gradients and excitotoxicity. Experimentally, N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) antagonists block a majority of SDs. In many hospitals, the NMDAR antagonist s-ketamine and the GABAA agonist midazolam represent the current second-line combination treatment to sedate patients with devastating cerebral injuries. A pressing clinical question is whether this option should become first-line in sedation-requiring individuals in whom SDs are detected, yet the s-ketamine dose necessary to adequately inhibit SDs is unknown. Moreover, use-dependent tolerance could be a problem for SD inhibition in the clinic. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study of 66 patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) from a prospectively collected database. Thirty-three of 66 patients received s-ketamine during electrocorticographic neuromonitoring of SDs in neurointensive care. The decision to give s-ketamine was dependent on the need for stronger sedation, so it was expected that patients receiving s-ketamine would have a worse clinical outcome. Results S-ketamine application started 4.2 ± 3.5 days after aSAH. The mean dose was 2.8 ± 1.4 mg/kg body weight (BW)/h and thus higher than the dose recommended for sedation. First, patients were divided according to whether they received s-ketamine at any time or not. No significant difference in SD counts was found between groups (negative binomial model using the SD count per patient as outcome variable, p = 0.288). This most likely resulted from the fact that 368 SDs had already occurred in the s-ketamine group before s-ketamine was given. However, in patients receiving s-ketamine, we found a significant decrease in SD incidence when s-ketamine was started (Poisson model with a random intercept for patient, coefficient − 1.83 (95% confidence intervals − 2.17; − 1.50), p < 0.001; logistic regression model, odds ratio (OR) 0.13 (0.08; 0.19), p < 0.001). Thereafter, data was further divided into low-dose (0.1–2.0 mg/kg BW/h) and high-dose (2.1–7.0 mg/kg/h) segments. High-dose s-ketamine resulted in further significant decrease in SD incidence (Poisson model, − 1.10 (− 1.71; − 0.49), p < 0.001; logistic regression model, OR 0.33 (0.17; 0.63), p < 0.001). There was little evidence of SD tolerance to long-term s-ketamine sedation through 5 days. Conclusions These results provide a foundation for a multicenter, neuromonitoring-guided, proof-of-concept trial of ketamine and midazolam as a first-line sedative regime.


2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-25
Author(s):  
Riccardo Garbo ◽  
Francesca Valent ◽  
Gian Luigi Gigli ◽  
Mariarosaria Valente

There is limited information regarding the severity of COVID-19 in immunocompromized patients. We conducted a retrospective cohort study considering the period from 1 March 2020 to 31 December 2020 to determine whether previously existing lymphopenia increases the risk of hospitalization and death after SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population. The laboratory and hospital discharge databases of the Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Friuli Centrale were used, and 5415 subjects infected with SARS-CoV-2 and with at least one recent absolute lymphocyte count determination before SARS-CoV-2 positivity were included. In total, 817 (15.1%) patients had severe COVID-19. Patients developing severe COVID-19 were more frequently males (44.9% of the severe COVID-19 group vs. 41.5% in the non-severe COVID-19 group; p < 0.0001) and were older (73.2 ± 13.8 vs. 58.4 ± 20.3 years; p < 0.0001). Furthermore, 29.9% of the lymphopenic patients developed severe COVID-19 vs. 14.5% of the non-lymphopenic patients (p < 0.0001). In a logistic regression model, female sex remained a protective factor (OR = 0.514, 95%CI 0.438–0.602, p < 0.0001), while age and lymphopenia remained risk factors for severe COVID-19 (OR = 1.047, 95%CI 1.042–1.053, p < 0.0001 for each additional year of age; OR = 1.715, 95%CI 1.239–2.347, p = 0.0011 for lymphopenia). This provides further information to stratify the risk of COVID-19 severity, which may be an important element in the management of immunosuppressive therapies.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Lv ◽  
Qian Xiang ◽  
Jia Lin ◽  
Ying Zong Jin ◽  
Ying Fang ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundThe association between allogeneic blood transfusion (ABT) and healthcare-associated infection (HAI) is considered dose-dependent. However, this association may be confounded by transfusion duration, as prolonged hospitalization stay increases the risk of HAI. Also, it is not clear whether specific blood products have different dose-response risks.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, a logistic regression was used to identify confounding factors, and the association between specific blood products and HAI were analyzed. Then Cox regression and restricted cubic spline regression was used to visualize the hazard of HAI per transfusion product.ResultsOf 215338 inpatients observed, 4.16% were transfused with a single component blood product. With regard to these transfused patients, 480 patients (5.36 %) developed a HAI during their hospitalization stay. Logistic regression showed that red blood cells (RBCs) transfusion, platelets transfusion and fresh-frozen plasmas (FFPs) transfusion were risk factors for HAI [odds ratio (OR) 1.893, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.656–2.163; OR 8.903, 95% CI 6.646–11.926 and OR 1.494, 95% CI 1.146–1.949, respectively]. However, restricted cubic spline regression analysis showed that there was no statistically dose-response relationship between different transfusion products and the onset of HAI.ConclusionsRBCs transfusion, platelets transfusion and FFPs transfusion were associated with HAI, but there was no dose-response relationship between them.


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