scholarly journals Detectable Anthropogenic Influence on Changes in Summer Precipitation in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (13) ◽  
pp. 5357-5369
Author(s):  
Chunhui Lu ◽  
Fraser C. Lott ◽  
Ying Sun ◽  
Peter A. Stott ◽  
Nikolaos Christidis
Keyword(s):  
Human Life ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Anthropogenic Influence ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
The Future ◽  
Light Precipitation

AbstractIn China, summer precipitation contributes a major part of the total precipitation amount in a year and has major impacts on society and human life. Whether any changes in summer precipitation are affected by external forcing on the climate system is an important issue. In this study, an optimal fingerprinting method was used to compare the observed changes of total, heavy, moderate, and light precipitation in summer derived from newly homogenized observation data with the simulations from multiple climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results demonstrate that the anthropogenic forcing signal can be detected and separated from the natural forcing signal in the observed increase of seasonal accumulated precipitation amount for heavy precipitation in summer in China and eastern China (EC). The simulated changes in heavy precipitation are generally consistent with observed change in China but are underestimated in EC. When the changes in precipitation of different intensities are considered simultaneously, the human influence on simultaneous changes in moderate and light precipitation can be detected in China and EC in summer. Changes attributable to anthropogenic forcing explain most of the observed regional changes for all categories of summer precipitation, and natural forcing contributes little. In the future, with increasing anthropogenic influence, the attribution-constrained projection suggests that heavy precipitation in summer will increase more than that from the model raw outputs. Society may therefore face a higher risk of heavy precipitation in the future.

scholarly journals Contrasting Daytime and Nighttime Precipitation Variability between Observations and Eight Reanalysis Products from 1979 to 2014 in China

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6443-6464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunlüe Zhou ◽  
Kaicun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis ◽  
Negative Center ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
Light Precipitation ◽  
Positive Center

Daytime (0800–2000 Beijing time) and nighttime (2000–0800 Beijing time) precipitation at approximately 2100 stations in China from 1979 to 2014 was used to evaluate eight current reanalyses. Daytime, nighttime, and nighttime–daytime contrast of precipitation were examined in aspects of climatology, seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and trends. The results show that the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), ERA-Interim/Land, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) can reproduce the observed spatial pattern of nighttime–daytime contrast in precipitation amount, exhibiting a positive center over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and a negative center over southeastern China. All of the reanalyses roughly reproduce seasonal variations of nighttime and daytime precipitation, but not always nighttime–daytime contrast. The reanalyses overestimate drizzle and light precipitation frequencies by greater than 31.5% and underestimate heavy precipitation frequencies by less than −30.8%. The reanalyses successfully reproduce interannual synchronizations of daytime and nighttime precipitation frequencies and amounts with an averaged correlation coefficient r of 0.66 against the observed data but overestimate their year-to-year amplitudes by approximately 64%. The trends in nighttime, daytime, and nighttime–daytime contrast of the observed precipitation amounts are mainly dominated by their frequencies ( r = 0.85). Less than moderate precipitation frequency has exhibited a significant downward trend (−2.5% decade−1 during nighttime and −1.7% decade−1 during daytime) since 1979, which is roughly captured by the reanalyses. However, only JRA-55 captures the observed trend of nighttime precipitation intensity (2.4% decade−1), while the remaining reanalyses show negative trends. Overall, JRA-55 and CFSR provide the best reproductions of the observed nighttime–daytime contrast in precipitation intensity, although they have considerable room for improvement.

Penerapan Rinfo Sebagai Media Pendukung Untuk Proses Pembelajaran Pada Perguruan Tinggi Raharja

CCIT Journal ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-115
Author(s):  
Untung Rahardja ◽  
Khanna Tiara ◽  
Ray Indra Taufik Wijaya
Keyword(s):  
Learning Process ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Learning Tools ◽  
Integrated Learning ◽  
Civilizing Process ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Life Education ◽  
New Generation

Education is an important factor in human life. According to Ki Hajar Dewantara, education is a civilizing process that a business gives high values ??to the new generation in a society that is not only maintenance but also with a view to promote and develop the culture of the nobility toward human life. Education is a human investment that can be used now and in the future. One other important factor in supporting human life in addition to education, which is technology. In this globalization era, technology has touched every joint of human life. The combination of these two factors will be a new innovation in the world of education. The innovation has been implemented by Raharja College, namely the use of the method iLearning (Integrated Learning) in the learning process. Where such learning has been online based. ILearning method consists of TPI (Ten Pillars of IT iLearning). Rinfo is one of the ten pillars, where it became an official email used by the whole community’s in Raharja College to communicate with each other. Rinfo is Gmail, which is adapted from the Google platform with typical raharja.info as its domain. This Rinfo is a medium of communication, as well as a tool to support the learning process in Raharja College. Because in addition to integrated with TPi, this Rinfo was connected also support with other learning tools, such as Docs, Drive, Sites, and other supporting tools.

The Meanings of Life and Value Priorities of the Post-Soviet Society in the Republic of Belarus

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (10) ◽  
pp. 25-37
Author(s):  
Alexander N. Danilov
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Role Model ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Modern Technology ◽  
Soviet Society ◽  
The World ◽  
Value Priorities ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Republic

The article discusses the meanings of life and value priorities of the post- Soviet society. The author argues that, at present, there are symptoms of a global ideological crisis in the world, that the West does not have its own vision of where and how to move on and has no understanding of the future. Unfortunately, most of the post-Soviet countries do not have such vision as well. In these conditions, there are mistrust, confusion, paradoxical manifestation of human consciousness. The main meanings that determine our life-world are: the desire of citizens for social justice and social security, the desire to figure out and understand the basic values of modern society, how honestly and equally the authorities act toward their fellow citizens, and to what extent they reflect their interests. The meanings of life, which are the answers to the challenges of the time, are embodied in the cultural code of each nation, state. The growth points of new values, which will become the basis for the future sustainable development of a new civilization, have yet to be discovered in the systemic transformative changes of the culture. In this process, the emergence of a new system of values that governs human life is inevitable. However, modern technology brings new troubles to humans. It has provided wide opportunities for informational violence and public consciousness manipulation. Nowadays, the scenario that is implemented in Western consumer societies claims to be the dominant scenario. Meanwhile, today there is no country in the world that is a role model, there is no ideal that others would like to borrow. Most post-Soviet states failed to advance their societies to more decent levels of economic development, to meet the challenges of the modern information age, and to provide the population with new high living standards. Therefore, in conditions of growing confrontation, we should realistically understand the world and be ready to implement changes that will ensure sustainable development of the state and society without losing our national identity.

scholarly journals Simulation study on the indirect effect of sulfate on the summer climate over the eastern China monsoon region

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongdong Wang ◽  
Bin Zhu ◽  
Hongbo Wang ◽  
Li Sun
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Monsoon Region ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model

AbstractIn this study, we designed a sensitivity test using the half number concentration of sulfate in the nucleation calculation process to study the aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) of sulfate on clouds, precipitation, and monsoon intensity in the summer over the eastern China monsoon region (ECMR) with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5. Numerical experiments show that the ACI of sulfate led to an approximately 30% and 34% increase in the cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplet number concentrations, respectively. Cloud droplet effective radius below 850 hPa decreased by approximately 4% in the southern ECMR, while the total liquid water path increased by 11%. The change in the indirect radiative forcing due to sulfate at the top of the atmosphere in the ECMR during summer was − 3.74 W·m−2. The decreased radiative forcing caused a surface cooling of 0.32 K and atmospheric cooling of approximately 0.3 K, as well as a 0.17 hPa increase in sea level pressure. These changes decreased the thermal difference between the land and sea and the gradient of the sea-land pressure, leading to a weakening in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and a decrease in the total precipitation rate in the southern ECMR. The cloud lifetime effect has a relatively weaker contribution to summer precipitation, which is dominated by convection. The results show that the ACI of sulfate was one possible reason for the weakening of the EASM in the late 1970s.

scholarly journals Evaluations of Surface PM10 Concentration and Chemical Compositions in MERRA-2 Aerosol Reanalysis over Central and Eastern China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1317
Author(s):  
Xiaodan Ma ◽  
Peng Yan ◽  
Tianliang Zhao ◽  
Xiaofang Jia ◽  
Jian Jiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern China ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Chemical Components ◽  
Chemical Compositions ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Causative Factors ◽  
Routine Sampling ◽  
Aerosol Compositions ◽  
Modern Era

The chemical composition dataset of Aerosol Reanalysis of NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, version 2 (MERRAero) has not been thoroughly evaluated with observation data in mainland China due to the lack of long-term chemical components data. Using the 5-year data of PM10 mass concentrations and chemical compositions obtained from the routine sampling measurements at the World Meteorological Organization the Global Atmosphere Watch Programme regional background stations, Jing Sha (JS) and Lin’An (LA), in central and eastern China, we comprehensively evaluate the surface PM10 concentrations and chemical compositions such as sulfate (SO42−), organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) derived from MERRAero. Overall, the concentrations of PM10, SO42−, OC and BC from the MERRAero agreed well with the measurements, despite a slight and consistent overestimation of BC concentrations and a moderate and persistent underestimation of PM10 concentrations throughout the study period. The MERRAero reanalysis of aerosol compositions performs better during the summertime than wintertime. By considering the nitrate particles in PM10 reconstruction, MERRAero performance can be significantly improved. The unreasonable seasonal variations of PM10 chemical compositions at station LA by MERRAero could be causative factors for the larger MERRAero discrepancies during 2016–2017 than the period of 2011–2013.

scholarly journals Roles of anthropogenic forcings in the observed trend of decreasing late-summer precipitation over the East Asian transitional climate zone

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Zhao ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Shangfeng Chen ◽  
Hainan Gong ◽  
Tianjiao Ma
Keyword(s):  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Climate Zone ◽  
Drying Trend

AbstractObservations indicate that late-summer precipitation over the East Asian transitional climate zone (TCZ) showed a pronounced decreasing trend during 1951–2005. This study examines the relative contributions of anthropogenic [including anthropogenic aerosol (AA) and greenhouse gas (GHG)] and natural forcings to the drying trend of the East Asian TCZ based on simulations from CMIP5. The results indicate that AA forcing plays a dominant role in contributing to the drying trend of the TCZ. AA forcing weakens the East Asian summer monsoon via reducing the land-sea thermal contrast, which induces strong low-level northerly anomalies over eastern China, suppresses water vapor transport from southern oceans and results in drier conditions over the TCZ. In contrast, GHG forcing leads to a wetting trend in the TCZ by inducing southerly wind anomalies, thereby offsetting the effect of the AA forcing. Natural forcing has a weak impact on the drying trend of the TCZ due to the weak response of atmospheric anomalies.

scholarly journals Simulation of Extreme Precipitation in Four Climate Regions in China by General Circulation Models (GCMs): Performance and Projections

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1509
Author(s):  
Mengru Zhang ◽  
Xiaoli Yang ◽  
Liliang Ren ◽  
Ming Pan ◽  
Shanhu Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Future ◽  
Semi Arid

In the context of global climate change, it is important to monitor abnormal changes in extreme precipitation events that lead to frequent floods. This research used precipitation indices to describe variations in extreme precipitation and analyzed the characteristics of extreme precipitation in four climatic (arid, semi-arid, semi-humid and humid) regions across China. The equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) method was used to downscale and bias-correct daily precipitation in eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs). From 1961 to 2005, the humid region had stronger and longer extreme precipitation compared with the other regions. In the future, the projected extreme precipitation is mainly concentrated in summer, and there will be large areas with substantial changes in maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5) and precipitation intensity (SDII). The greatest differences between two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are in semi-arid and semi-humid areas for summer precipitation anomalies. However, the area of the four regions with an increasing trend of extreme precipitation is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario than that under the RCP4.5 scenario. The increasing trend of extreme precipitation in the future is relatively pronounced, especially in humid areas, implying a potential heightened flood risk in these areas.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Thermal and Dynamic Vertical Structures of Summer Hourly Precipitation in Jiulong of the Tibetan Plateau

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 505
Author(s):  
Yonglan Tang ◽  
Guirong Xu ◽  
Rong Wan ◽  
Xiaofang Wang ◽  
Junchao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Hourly Precipitation ◽  
Air Convection ◽  
Precipitation Variation ◽  
Long Term Observation

It is an important to study atmospheric thermal and dynamic vertical structures over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and their impact on precipitation by using long-term observation at representative stations. This study exhibits the observational facts of summer precipitation variation on subdiurnal scale and its atmospheric thermal and dynamic vertical structures over the TP with hourly precipitation and intensive soundings in Jiulong during 2013–2020. It is found that precipitation amount and frequency are low in the daytime and high in the nighttime, and hourly precipitation greater than 1 mm mostly occurs at nighttime. Weak precipitation during the daytime may be caused by air advection, and strong precipitation at nighttime may be closely related with air convection. Both humidity and wind speed profiles show obvious fluctuation when precipitation occurs, and the greater the precipitation intensity, the larger the fluctuation. Moreover, the fluctuation of wind speed is small in the morning, large at noon and largest at night, presenting a similar diurnal cycle to that of convective activity over the TP, which is conductive to nighttime precipitation. Additionally, the inverse layer is accompanied by the inverse humidity layer, and wind speed presents multi-peaks distribution in its vertical structure. Both of these are closely related with the underlying surface and topography of Jiulong. More studies on physical mechanism and numerical simulation are necessary for better understanding the atmospheric phenomenon over the TP.

scholarly journals Human Contribution to the Increasing Summer Precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (19) ◽  
pp. 8005-8021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongdong Peng ◽  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Lixia Zhang ◽  
Bo Wu
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Moisture Budget ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Advection Term

The ecosystem and societal development over arid Central Asia, the core connecting region of the Silk Road Economic Belt, are highly sensitive to climate change. The results derived from multiobservational datasets show that summer precipitation over Central Asia has significantly increased by 20.78% from 1961 to 2013. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the summer wetting trend or not. In this study, the corresponding physical processes and contributions of anthropogenic forcing are investigated by comparing reanalysis and experiments of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1 (CAM5.1), from the CLIVAR Climate of the Twentieth Century Plus (C20C+) Project. The observed wetting trend is well reproduced in the simulation driven by all radiative forcings (CAM5-All), but poorly reproduced in the simulation with natural forcings only (CAM5-Nat), confirming the important role of human contribution in the observed wetting trend. Moisture budget analysis shows that the observed wetting trend is dominated by the increasing vertical moisture advection term and results from enhanced vertical motion over nearly all of Central Asia. The observed contributions of moisture budget components to the wetting trend are only captured by CAM5-All experiments. The dynamic contribution is determined by the warm advection anomalies in association with a human-induced meridional uneven warm pattern. Human-induced warming increases the specific humidity over all of Central Asia, increasing (decreasing) the precipitation over the climatological ascent (descent) region in eastern (western) Central Asia.

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