scholarly journals Rising Variability in Thunderstorm-Related U.S. Losses as a Reflection of Changes in Large-Scale Thunderstorm Forcing*

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 317-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Sander ◽  
J. F. Eichner ◽  
E. Faust ◽  
M. Steuer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Natural Climate

Abstract Thunderstorm-related normalized economic and insured losses in the United States east of the Rockies from the period 1970–2009 (March–September) exhibit higher peaks and greater variability in the last two decades than in the preceding two decades. To remove the bias from increasingly detected losses over time due to newly built-up locations, only large events that incurred normalized losses of at least $250 million (U.S. dollars) economically ($150 million insured) were selected. These are multistate damage events that are unlikely to have been missed at any time within the analysis period, thus providing for homogeneity of the events covered. Those losses, if aggregated, account for the major proportion (~80%) of all thunderstorm-related losses in the period 1970–2009. This study demonstrates that the pattern of variability in the time series of these losses can be seen as a reflection (“fingerprint”) of the temporal variability in severe thunderstorm forcing. The meteorological information on forcing is inferred from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. No final attribution of the climatic variability identified in thunderstorm forcing and losses—either to natural climate variability or to anthropogenic climate change—can be conclusively arrived at in this study because of the chosen methodology. Nevertheless, the expected impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the forcing of convective storms appear consistent with these findings.

scholarly journals Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (42) ◽  
pp. 11770-11775 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
A. Park Williams
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Western Us ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Fire Area ◽  
Natural Climate

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

scholarly journals Role of Natural Climate Variability in the Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change Signal for Mean and Extreme Precipitation at Local and Regional Scales

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (11) ◽  
pp. 4241-4263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Luc Martel ◽  
Alain Mailhot ◽  
François Brissette ◽  
Daniel Caya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
The World ◽  
Natural Climate

Abstract Climate change will impact both mean and extreme precipitation, having potentially significant consequences on water resources. The implementation of efficient adaptation measures must rely on the development of reliable projections of future precipitation and on the assessment of their related uncertainty. Natural climate variability is a key uncertainty component, which can result in apparent decadal trends that may be greater or lower than the long-term underlying anthropogenic climate change trend. The goal of the present study is to assess how natural climate variability affects the ability to detect the climate change signal for mean and extreme precipitation. Annual and seasonal total precipitation are used as indicators of the mean, whereas annual and seasonal maximum daily precipitation are used as indicators of extremes. This is done using the CanESM2 50-member and CESM1 40-member large ensembles of simulations over the 1950–2100 period. At the local scale, results indicate that natural climate variability will dominate the uncertainty for annual and seasonal extreme precipitation going up to the end of the century in many parts of the world. The climate change signal can, however, be reliably detected much earlier at the regional scale for extreme precipitation. In the case of annual and seasonal total precipitation, the climate change signal can be reliably detected at the local scale without resorting to a regional analysis. Nonetheless, natural climate variability can impede the detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal until the middle to late century in many parts of the world for mean and extreme precipitation.

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

scholarly journals Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits ( Parus major )

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1963) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcel E. Visser ◽  
Melanie Lindner ◽  
Phillip Gienapp ◽  
Matthew C. Long ◽  
Stephanie Jenouvrier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Parus Major ◽  
Great Tit ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Seasonal Timing ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Natural Climate

Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit ( Parus major ), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.

scholarly journals Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on United States Major Hurricane Landfall Frequency

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma L. Levin ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Buffer System ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
The U.S

Although anthropogenic climate change has contributed to warmer ocean temperatures that are seemingly more favorable for Atlantic hurricane development, no major hurricanes made landfall in the United States between 2006 and 2016. The U.S., therefore, experienced a major hurricane landfall drought during those years. Using the high-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 25 km grid High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) global climate model, the present study shows that increases in anthropogenic forcing, due to increases in greenhouse gasses, are associated with fewer long-duration major hurricane landfall droughts in the U.S., which implies an increase in major hurricane landfall frequency. We create six different fixed-distance ‘buffers’ that artificially circle the United States coastline in 100 km radial increments and can compensate for the bias in hurricane landfall calculations with six-hourly datasets. Major hurricane landfall frequencies are computed by applying the buffer zones to the six-hourly observed and simulated storm track datasets, which are then compared with the observed recorded major hurricane frequencies. We found that the major hurricane landfall frequencies generated with the 200 km buffer using the six-hourly observed best-track dataset are most correlated with the observed recorded major hurricane landfall frequencies. Using HiFLOR with an implemented buffer system, we found less frequent projections of long-duration major hurricane landfall drought events in controlled scenarios with greater anthropogenic global warming, which is independent on the radius of the coastal buffer. These results indicate an increase in U.S. major hurricane landfall frequencies with an increase in anthropogenic warming, which could pose a substantial threat to coastal communities in the U.S.

Environment and technology dominate the WEF agenda

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The People ◽  
Impact Risk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
First Time

Significance For the first time in the eleven-year history of the survey, no economic risk makes the list of the top five most likely or biggest impact risks. In contrast, large-scale terrorist attacks make the top five most likely risks for the first time and weapons of mass destruction are cited as the highest impact risk. All five environment-related risks are ranked among the top ten highest impact risks for the first time -- four in the top five: extreme weather events; water crises; major natural disasters; and failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The survey cites strengthening global cooperation systems as a top five challenge, and says these environmental risks will be exacerbated if cooperation diminishes. Impacts Nearly a third of respondents think that increasing polarisation will be an underlying trend over the next ten years. More must be done to include the people left behind by technological change -- more than 4 billion lack internet access. The United States may withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement, and a number of free trade deals are at risk.

scholarly journals Do Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models Improve Projections of Future Precipitation Change?

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
Nikolina Ban ◽  
Nigel M. Roberts ◽  
Hayley J. Fowler ◽  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Regional climate projections are used in a wide range of impact studies, from assessing future flood risk to climate change impacts on food and energy production. These model projections are typically at 12–50-km resolution, providing valuable regional detail but with inherent limitations, in part because of the need to parameterize convection. The first climate change experiments at convection-permitting resolution (kilometer-scale grid spacing) are now available for the United Kingdom; the Alps; Germany; Sydney, Australia; and the western United States. These models give a more realistic representation of convection and are better able to simulate hourly precipitation characteristics that are poorly represented in coarser-resolution climate models. Here we examine these new experiments to determine whether future midlatitude precipitation projections are robust from coarse to higher resolutions, with implications also for the tropics. We find that the explicit representation of the convective storms themselves, only possible in convection-permitting models, is necessary for capturing changes in the intensity and duration of summertime rain on daily and shorter time scales. Other aspects of rainfall change, including changes in seasonal mean precipitation and event occurrence, appear robust across resolutions, and therefore coarse-resolution regional climate models are likely to provide reliable future projections, provided that large-scale changes from the global climate model are reliable. The improved representation of convective storms also has implications for projections of wind, hail, fog, and lightning. We identify a number of impact areas, especially flooding, but also transport and wind energy, for which very high-resolution models may be needed for reliable future assessments.

scholarly journals Two Modes of North American Drought from Instrumental and Paleoclimatic Data*

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (16) ◽  
pp. 4336-4347 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Woodhouse ◽  
J. L. Russell ◽  
E. R. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
The Past ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Paleoclimatic Data ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
East West ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Droughts, which occur as a part of natural climate variability, are expected to increase in frequency and/or severity with global climate change. An improved understanding of droughts and their association with atmospheric circulation will add to the knowledge about the controls on drought, and the ways in which changes in climate may impact droughts. In this study, 1) major drought patterns across the United States have been defined, 2) the robustness of these patterns over time using tree-ring-based drought reconstructions have been evaluated, and 3) the drought patterns with respect to global atmospheric pressure patterns have been assessed. From this simple assessment, it is suggested that there are two major drought patterns across North America, which together account for about 30% of the total variance in drought patterns—one resembles the classic ENSO teleconnection, and the other displays an east–west drought dipole. The same two patterns are evident in the instrumental data and the reconstructed drought data for two different periods, 1404–2003 and 900–1350. The 500-mb circulation patterns associated with the two drought patterns suggest that the controls on drought may come from both Northern Hemisphere and tropical sources. The two drought patterns, and presumably their associated circulation patterns, vary in strength over time, indicating the combined effects of the two patterns on droughts over the past millennium.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change coverage in two Canadian newspapers : the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail, from 1988-2007

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina Marie Ahchong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
News Media ◽  
Public Perception ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Public Issues ◽  
Regional Newspaper ◽  
The Way

Media portrayal of current events can influence public perception and the actions that policy and decision makers take with regard to these events. This study applied a content analysis to explore variations in the way Canadian news media depicted anthropogenic climate change by employing an approach previously used by Liu, Vedlitz and Alston (2008). This research applied their existing methodology to both the regional and national levels of media in a Canadian setting. Climate change articles from two newspapers published between 1988 and 2007, the Toronto Star, a regional newspaper, and the Globe and Mail, a national newspaper, were obtained. They were examined for aspects of climate change, including salience, image, scope, country representation, participants, and the origins of scientific information that was presented in the articles. Differences in the way climate change is portrayed between the newspapers at regional and national levels are also examined. Overall, climate change is portrayed similarly in the two newspapers as a large-scale (national and global) problem, despite the differences in audience scope. The Toronto Star exhibits a more national perspective with respect to climate change although it is a regional newspaper. Attention paid by the media to climate change increases from 1988-2007. Climate change is predominantly depicted in both newspapers as a destructive issue. There are linkages to other public issues, including those in international co-operation, science research and development, and energy and transportation. The analysis reveals that a number of non-government and government actors are concerned with climate change and a wider array of interest groups is becoming involved. Finally, the majority of the solution strategies presented in the articles focus on mitigation techniques, as opposed to adaptation strategies.

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