scholarly journals Chance elections, social distancing restrictions, and KENTUCKY’s early COVID-19 experience

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0250152
Author(s):  
Charles Courtemanche ◽  
Joseph Garuccio ◽  
Anh Le ◽  
Joshua Pinkston ◽  
Aaron Yelowitz
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Working Class ◽  
Detectable Effect ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
White Working Class ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

Early in the pandemic, slowing the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) relied on non-pharmaceutical interventions. All U.S. states adopted social-distancing restrictions in March and April of 2020, though policies varied both in timing and scope. Compared to states with Democratic governors, those with Republican governors often adopted measures for shorter durations and with greater resistance from their residents. In Kentucky, an extremely close gubernatorial election immediately prior to the discovery of SARS-CoV-2 replaced a Republican incumbent with a Democrat, despite Republicans easily winning all other statewide races. This chance election result offers a unique opportunity to examine the impact of early social distancing policies in a relatively conservative, rural, white-working-class state. Our study begins by estimating an event-study model to link adoption of several common social distancing measures–public school closures, bans on large gatherings, closures of entertainment-related businesses such as restaurants, and shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs)–to the growth rate of cases across counties in the Midwest and South in the early stages of the pandemic. These policies combined to slow the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases by 9 percentage points after 16 days, with SIPOs and entertainment establishment closures accounting for the entire effect. In order to obtain results with more direct applicability to Kentucky, we then estimate a model that interacts the policy variables with a “white working class” index characterized by political conservatism, rurality, and high percentages of white, evangelical Christian residents without college degrees. We find that the effectiveness of early social distancing measures decreased with higher values of this index. The results imply that the restrictions combined to slow the spread of COVID-19 by 12 percentage points per day in Kentucky’s two largest urban counties but had no statistically detectable effect across the rest of the state.

scholarly journals The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Pozo-Martin ◽  
Heide Weishaar ◽  
Florin Cristea ◽  
Johanna Hanefeld ◽  
Thurid Bahr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Multilevel Modelling ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Public Places ◽  
Member States ◽  
Unit Increase ◽  
Policy Decision Making ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe estimated the impact of a comprehensive set of non-pharmeceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate across the 37 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and between October and December 2020. For this task, we conducted a data-driven, longitudinal analysis using a multilevel modelling approach with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We found that during the early phase of the epidemic: implementing restrictions on gatherings of more than 100 people, between 11 and 100 people, and 10 people or less was associated with a respective average reduction of 2.58%, 2.78% and 2.81% in the daily growth rate in weekly confirmed cases; requiring closing for some sectors or for all but essential workplaces with an average reduction of 1.51% and 1.78%; requiring closing of some school levels or all school levels with an average reduction of 1.12% or 1.65%; recommending mask wearing with an average reduction of 0.45%, requiring mask wearing country-wide in specific public spaces or in specific geographical areas within the country with an average reduction of 0.44%, requiring mask-wearing country-wide in all public places or all public places where social distancing is not possible with an average reduction of 0.96%; and number of tests per thousand population with an average reduction of 0.02% per unit increase. Between October and December 2020 work closing requirements and testing policy were significant predictors of the epidemic growth rate. These findings provide evidence to support policy decision-making regarding which NPIs to implement to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Public Compliance With Social Distancing Measures and SARS-CoV-2 Spread

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492110112
Author(s):  
Hongjie Liu ◽  
Chang Chen ◽  
Raul Cruz-Cano ◽  
Jennifer L. Guida ◽  
Minha Lee
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Density Change ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Social Distancing

Objective We quantified the association between public compliance with social distancing measures and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the epidemic (March–May 2020) in 5 states that accounted for half of the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Methods We used data on mobility and number of COVID-19 cases to longitudinally estimate associations between public compliance, as measured by human mobility, and the daily reproduction number and daily growth rate during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. Results The 5 states mandated social distancing directives during March 19-24, 2020, and public compliance with mandates started to decrease in mid-April 2020. As of May 31, 2020, the daily reproduction number decreased from 2.41-5.21 to 0.72-1.19, and the daily growth rate decreased from 0.22-0.77 to –0.04 to 0.05 in the 5 states. The level of public compliance, as measured by the social distancing index (SDI) and daily encounter-density change, was high at the early stage of implementation but decreased in the 5 states. The SDI was negatively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, –0.04 to –0.01) and the daily growth rate (from –0.009 to –0.01). The daily encounter-density change was positively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, 0.24 to 1.02) and the daily growth rate (from 0.05 to 0.26). Conclusions Social distancing is an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of COVID-19 and illustrates the role of public compliance with social distancing measures to achieve public health benefits.

scholarly journals Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
Sushma Dahal ◽  
Raquel Bono ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTo ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 40 cruise ships reporting COVID-19 infections. We apply mathematical modeling to assess the impact of testing strategies together with social distancing protocols on the spread of the novel coronavirus during ocean cruises using an individual-level stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We model the contact network, the potential importation of cases arising during shore excursions, the temporal course of infectivity at the individual level, the effects of social distancing strategies, different testing scenarios characterized by the test’s sensitivity profile, and testing frequency. Our findings indicate that PCR testing at embarkation and daily testing of all individuals aboard, together with increased social distancing and other public health measures, should allow for rapid detection and isolation of COVID-19 infections and dramatically reducing the probability of onboard COVID-19 community spread. In contrast, relying only on PCR testing at embarkation would not be sufficient to avert outbreaks, even when implementing substantial levels of social distancing measures.

scholarly journals Modelling the Potential Impact of Social Distancing on the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
F. Nyabadza ◽  
F. Chirove ◽  
C. W. Chukwu ◽  
M. V. Visaya
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Policy Direction ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a global health problem whose impact has been significantly felt in South Africa. With the global spread increasing and infecting millions, containment efforts by countries have largely focused on lockdowns and social distancing to minimise contact between persons. Social distancing has been touted as the best form of response in managing a rapid increase in the number of infected cases. In this paper, we present a deterministic model to describe the impact of social distancing on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa. The model is fitted to data from March 5 to April 13, 2020, on the cumulative number of infected cases, and a scenario analysis on different levels of social distancing is presented. The model shows that with the levels of social distancing under the initial lockdown level between March 26 and April 13, 2020, there would be a projected continued rise in the number of infected cases. The model also looks at the impact of relaxing the social distancing measures after the initial announcement of the lockdown. It is shown that relaxation of social distancing by 2% can result in a 23% rise in the number of cumulative cases whilst an increase in the level of social distancing by 2% would reduce the number of cumulative cases by about 18%. The model results accurately predicted the number of cases after the initial lockdown level was relaxed towards the end of April 2020. These results have implications on the management and policy direction in the early phase of the epidemic.

scholarly journals Evaluating Classical Airplane Boarding Methods Considering COVID-19 Flying Restrictions

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1087 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liviu-Adrian Cotfas ◽  
Camelia Delcea ◽  
R. John Milne ◽  
Mostafa Salari
Keyword(s):  
Health Risk ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Social Distance ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Zone Method ◽  
Economic Productivity ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has imposed the need for a series of social distancing restrictions worldwide to mitigate the scourge of the COVID-19 pandemic. This applies to many domains, including airplane boarding and seat assignments. As airlines are considering their passengers’ safety during the pandemic, boarding methods should be evaluated both in terms of social distancing norms and the resulting efficiency for the airlines. The present paper analyzes the impact of a series of restrictions that have been imposed or mooted worldwide on the boarding methods used by the airlines, featuring the use of jet-bridges and one-door boarding. To compare the efficacy of classical airplane boarding methods with respect to new social distancing norms, five metrics were used to evaluate their performance. One metric is the time to complete the boarding of the airplane. The other four metrics concern passenger health and reflect the potential exposure to the virus from other passengers through the air and surfaces (e.g., headrests and luggage) touched by passengers. We use the simulation platform in NetLogo to test six common boarding methods under various conditions. The back-to-front by row boarding method results in the longest time to complete boarding but has the advantage of providing the lowest health risk for two metrics. Those two metrics are based on passengers potentially infecting those passengers previously seated in the rows they traverse. Interestingly, those two risks are reduced for most boarding methods when the social distance between adjacent passengers advancing down the aisle is increased, thus indicating an unanticipated benefit stemming from this form of social distancing. The modified reverse pyramid by half zone method provides the shortest time to the completing boarding of the airplane and—along with the WilMA boarding method—provides the lowest health risk stemming from potential infection resulting from seat interferences. Airlines have the difficult task of making tradeoffs between economic productivity and the resulting impact on various health risks.

Assessing the production and the impact of cultivated oysters in the Thau lagoon (Mediterranee, France) with a population dynamics model

2001 ◽  
Vol 58 (5) ◽  
pp. 1012-1020 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Gangnery ◽  
C Bacher ◽  
D Buestel
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Standing Stock ◽  
Individual Growth ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Mediterranean Mussel ◽  
Thau Lagoon ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

The Thau lagoon (France) has been studied for many years because of its ecological interest related to economic activities: shellfish cultivation, tourism, and industry. The standing stock of cultivated filter feeders is around 20 000 t and consists of two main species, the Japanese oyster Crassostrea gigas and the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. To predict changes in the standing stock and the annual production, a mathematical model of the population dynamics was defined. It was based on the continuous equation of the density as a function of the mortality rate, the individual growth rate, and the interindividual variability. The daily growth rate was derived from field surveys and depended on the phytoplankton concentration and individual weight. The model also took into account the rearing strategy of the producers defined by the timetable of seeding and harvesting, obtained by an inquiry among the producers and used to simulate real cases of standing stock changes. The model was also used to assess the potential impact on the environment through the computation of the food consumption, which was compared with the residence time and the primary production.

scholarly journals Intercultural Communication Challenges in the Period of the Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) (The Case of Qatar Airways)

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
Author(s):  
Margo Kublashvili
Keyword(s):  
Intercultural Communication ◽  
Target Group ◽  
Communication Process ◽  
Modern World ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Cabin Crew ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Different Cultures ◽  
The Impact

Under the conditions of the global threat of the modern world - the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, the demand for social distancing as a commonly proven method of preventing fatal cases and stopping the virus has fundamentally changed the process of communication in an intercultural environment. Our research aims to study the impact of the pandemic on the intercultural communication process and its quality in a multicultural environment. Cabin Crew of Qatar Airways, as one of the largest multicultural/multinational companies, was selected as a target group. A qualitative method of data collection – interviewing – was used as a research technique. In particular, the target group was interviewed through a semistructured questionnaire – by a so-called "narrative interview" method. This research enabled us to obtain new narratives which were created on the coronavirus background – responses of the Qatar Airways Cabin Crew and the company's international passengers to the challenge of Covid-19. The study and analysis of these responses revealed that representatives of different cultures (Individualistic/Collectivist cultures, High/Low uncertainty avoidance cultures, Submissive orientation/Mastery orientation cultures, Tight/Loose cultures) have different attitudes towards the pandemic as an uncertain and unpredictable future; towards the Covid-19 vaccine; towards wearing a mask and eye contact related to it; in addition, they can be distinguished by different perceptions of territorialism as personal space (physical and social distancing); different feelings of fear and anxiety and readiness to obey/disobey introduced rules or restrictions (so-called Lockdown, Curfew). According to the research, these differences are due to the "mental program" of a society, i.e. a purely cultural factor. However, despite several intercultural differences, daily contact with groups having other cultures significantly increases opportunities for collaboration, which, in times of crisis, does not hinder the process of interaction between different cultures, but on the contrary, it increases the level of intercultural acceptance and sensitivity.

scholarly journals How high and long will the COVID-19 wave be? A data-driven approach to model and predict the COVID-19 epidemic and the required capacity for the German health system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Klabunde ◽  
Clemens Giegerich
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Health System ◽  
Intensive Care Units ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
German Health ◽  
The Social ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackground and objectiveIn March 2020 the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been declared as global pandemic. Most countries have implemented numerous “social distancing” measures in order to limit its transmission and control the outbreak. This study aims to describe the impact of these control measures on the spread of the disease for Italy and Germany, forecast the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in both countries and estimate the medical capacity requirements in terms of hospital beds and intensive care units (ICUs) for optimal clinical treatment of severe and critical COVID-19 patients, for the Germany health system.MethodsWe used an exponential decline function to model the trajectory of the daily growth rate of infections in Italy and Germany. A linear regression of the logarithmic growth rate functions of different stages allowed to describe the impact of the “social distancing” measures leading to a faster decline of the growth rate in both countries. We used the linear model to predict the number of diagnosed and fatal COVID-19 cases from April 10th until May 31st. For Germany we estimated the required daily number of hospital beds and intensive care units (ICU) using clinical observations on the average lengths of a hospital stay for the severe and critical COVID-19 patients.ResultsAnalyzing the data from Germany and Italy allowed us to identify changes in the trajectory of the growth rate of infection most likely resulted from the various “social distancing” measures implemented. In Italy a stronger decline in the growth rate was observed around the week of March 17th, whereas for Germany the stronger decline occurred approximately a week later (the week of March 23rd). Under the assumption that the impact of the measures will last, the total size of the outbreak can be estimated to 155,000 cases in Germany (range 140,000-180,000) and to 185,000 cases in Italy (range 175,000-200,000). For Germany the total number of deaths until May 31st is calculated to 3,850 (range 3,500-4,450). Based on the projected number of new COVID-19 cases we expect that the hospital capacity requirements for severe and critical cases in Germany will decline from the 2nd week of April onwards from 13,500 to ∼2500 hospital beds (range 1500-4300) and from 2500 to ∼500 ICU beds in early May (range 300-800).ConclusionsThe modeling effort presented here provides a valuable framework to capture the impact of the “social distancing” measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in European countries and to forecast the future trend of daily COVID-19 cases. It provides a tool for medical authorities in Germany and other countries to help inform the required hospital capacity of the health care system. Germany appears to be in the middle of the (first) COVID-19 outbreak wave and the German health system is well prepared to handle it with the available capacities.

‘A Little Crow in the Tree’: Growing Inequality and White Working-Class Politics in the U.S.

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-145
Author(s):  
Lawrence Eppard ◽  
Arlie Hochschild ◽  
Richard Wilkinson
Keyword(s):  
Working Class ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
Class Politics ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Social Fabric ◽  
White Working Class ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

There have been troubling trends in economic inequality, deprivation, and insecurity in the U.S. since the 1970s. This inequality and insecurity has left the American social fabric ‘fraying at the edges,’ in the words of Joseph Stiglitz. Scholars have recently begun focusing their attention on phenomena which are reflective of and associated with this fraying social fabric: the increasing economic insecurity and emerging ‘politics of resentment’ of the White working class in the U.S. This piece contains excerpts from interviews that Lawrence Eppard conducted with two important scholars, Arlie Hochschild and Richard Wilkinson, who have explored these issues in their work in different ways. The interviews touch on a variety of topics, including growing inequality and its social consequences, the role of government in addressing inequality, White working-class resentment, the impact of racism and sexism on White working-class attitudes and politics, the 2016 U.S. presidential election, political polarization, and dominant American notions of freedom. Much of the discussion focuses on Hochschild’s work in Strangers in Their Own Land and Wilkinson’s work with Kate Pickett in The Spirit Level.

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