scholarly journals The introduction of a mandatory mask policy was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 cases in a major metropolitan city

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0253510
Author(s):  
Nick Scott ◽  
Allan Saul ◽  
Tim Spelman ◽  
Mark Stoove ◽  
Alisa Pedrana ◽  
...  

Background Whilst evidence of use of face masks in reducing COVID-19 cases is increasing, the impact of mandatory use across a large population has been difficult to assess. Introduction of mandatory mask use on July 22, 2020 during a resurgence of COVID-19 in Melbourne, Australia created a situation that facilitated an assessment of the impact of the policy on the epidemic growth rate as its introduction occurred in the absence of other changes to restrictions. Methods and findings Exponential epidemic growth or decay rates in daily COVID-19 diagnoses were estimated using a non-weighted linear regression of the natural logarithm of the daily cases against time, using a linear spline model with one knot (lspline package in R v 3.6.3). The model’s two linear segments pivot around the hinge day, on which the mask policy began to take effect, 8 days following the introduction of the policy. We used two forms of data to assess change in mask usage: images of people wearing masks in public places obtained from a major media outlet and population-based survey data. Potential confounding factors (including daily COVID-19 tests, number of COVID-19 cases among population subsets affected differentially by the mask policy–e.g., healthcare workers) were examined for their impact on the results. Daily cases fitted an exponential growth in the first log-linear segment (k = +0.042, s.e. = 0.007), and fitted an exponential decay in the second (k = -0.023, s.e. = 0.017) log-linear segment. Over a range of reported serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 infection, these growth rates correspond to a 22–33% reduction in an effective reproduction ratio before and after mandatory mask use. Analysis of images of people in public spaces showed mask usage rose from approximately 43% to 97%. Analysis of survey data found that on the third day before policy introduction, 44% of participants reported “often” or “always” wearing a mask; on the fourth day after, 100% reported “always” doing so. No potentially confounding factors were associated with the observed change in growth rates. Conclusions The mandatory mask use policy substantially increased public use of masks and was associated with a significant decline in new COVID-19 cases after introduction of the policy. This study strongly supports the use of masks for controlling epidemics in the broader community.

2020 ◽  
pp. BJGP.2020.0890
Author(s):  
Vadsala Baskaran ◽  
Fiona Pearce ◽  
Rowan H Harwood ◽  
Tricia McKeever ◽  
Wei Shen Lim

Background: Up to 70% of patients report ongoing symptoms four weeks after hospitalisation for pneumonia, and the impact on primary care is poorly understood. Aim: To investigate the frequency of primary care consultations after hospitalisation for pneumonia, and the reasons for consultation. Design: Population-based cohort study. Setting: UK primary care database of anonymised medical records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), England. Methods: Adults with the first ICD-10 code for pneumonia (J12-J18) recorded in HES between July 2002-June 2017 were included. Primary care consultation within 30 days of discharge was identified as the recording of any medical Read code (excluding administration-related codes) in CPRD. Competing-risks regression analyses were conducted to determine the predictors of consultation and antibiotic use at consultation; death and readmission were competing events. Reasons for consultation were examined. Results: Of 56,396 adults, 55.9% (n=31,542) consulted primary care within 30 days of discharge. The rate of consultation was highest within 7 days (4.7 per 100 person-days). The strongest predictor for consultation was a higher number of primary care consultations in the year prior to index admission (adjusted sHR 8.98, 95% CI 6.42-12.55). The commonest reason for consultation was for a respiratory disorder (40.7%, n=12,840), 12% for pneumonia specifically. At consultation, 31.1% (n=9,823) received further antibiotics. Penicillins (41.6%, n=5,753) and macrolides (21.9%, n=3,029) were the commonest antibiotics prescribed. Conclusion: Following hospitalisation for pneumonia, a significant proportion of patients consulted primary care within 30 days, highlighting the morbidity experienced by patients during recovery from pneumonia.


Author(s):  
Mark Elwood

This chapter shows a large population-based case-control study, to address the quantitative relationship between alcohol consumption and breast cancer. It shows the logistic and design issues, and the assessment of dose-response, consistency and specificity. The critical assessment follows the scheme set out in chapter 10: describing the study, assessing the non-causal explanations of observation bias, confounding, and chance variation; assessing time relationships, strength, dose-response, consistency and specificity, and applying the results to the eligible, source, and target populations; and then comparing the results with evidence from other studies, considering consistency and specificity, biological mechanisms, and coherence with the distribution of exposures and outcomes. The chapter gives a summary and table of the critical assessment and its conclusions; and comments on the impact of the study and research carried out since.


2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 1361-1369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Holmes ◽  
John Geen ◽  
John D Williams ◽  
Aled O Phillips

Abstract Background This study examined the impact of recurrent episodes of acute kidney injury (AKI) on patient outcomes. Methods The Welsh National electronic AKI reporting system was used to identify all cases of AKI in patients ≥18 years of age between April 2015 and September 2018. Patients were grouped according to the number of AKI episodes they experienced with each patient’s first episode described as their index episode. We compared the demography and patient outcomes of those patients with a single AKI episode with those patients with multiple AKI episodes. Analysis included 153 776 AKI episodes in 111 528 patients. Results Of those who experienced AKI and survived their index episode, 29.3% experienced a second episode, 9.9% a third episode and 4.0% experienced fourth or more episodes. Thirty-day mortality for those patients with multiple episodes of AKI was significantly higher than for those patients with a single episode (31.3% versus 24.9%, P < 0.001). Following a single episode, recovery to baseline renal function at 30 days was achieved in 83.6% of patients and was significantly higher than for patients who had repeated episodes (77.8%, P < 0.001). For surviving patients, non-recovery of renal function following any AKI episode was significantly associated with a higher probability of a further AKI episode (33.4% versus 41.0%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, with each episode of AKI the likelihood of a subsequent episode also increased (31.0% versus 43.2% versus 51.2% versus 51.7% following a first, second, third and fourth episode, P < 0.001 for all comparisons). Conclusions The results of this study provide an important contribution to the debate regarding the need for risk stratification for recurrent AKI. The data suggest that such a tool would be useful given the poor patient and renal outcomes associated with recurrent AKI episodes as highlighted by this study.


2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 1139-1147 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Denckla ◽  
A. D. Mancini ◽  
N. S. Consedine ◽  
S. M. Milanovic ◽  
A. Basu ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundDistinguishing temporal patterns of depressive symptoms during pregnancy and after childbirth has important clinical implications for diagnosis, treatment, and maternal and child outcomes. The primary aim of the present study was to distinguish patterns of chronically elevated levels of depressive symptoms v. trajectories that are either elevated during pregnancy but then remit after childbirth, v. patterns that increase after childbirth.MethodsThe report uses latent growth mixture modeling in a large, population-based cohort (N = 12 121) to investigate temporal patterns of depressive symptoms. We examined theoretically relevant sociodemographic factors, exposure to adversity, and offspring gender as predictors.ResultsFour distinct trajectories emerged, including resilient (74.3%), improving (9.2%), emergent (4.0%), and chronic (11.5%). Lower maternal and paternal education distinguished chronic from resilient depressive trajectories, whereas higher maternal and partner education, and female offspring gender, distinguished the emergent trajectory from the chronic trajectory. Younger maternal age distinguished the improving group from the resilient group. Exposure to medical, interpersonal, financial, and housing adversity predicted membership in the chronic, emergent, and improving trajectories compared with the resilient trajectory. Finally, exposure to medical, interpersonal, and financial adversity was associated with the chronic v. improving group, and inversely related to the emergent class relative to the improving group.ConclusionsThere are distinct temporal patterns of depressive symptoms during pregnancy, after childbirth, and beyond. Most women show stable low levels of depressive symptoms, while emergent and chronic depression patterns are separable with distinct correlates, most notably maternal age, education levels, adversity exposure, and child gender.


2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 296-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gideon Koren ◽  
Meital Shlezinger ◽  
Rachel Katz ◽  
Varda Shalev ◽  
Yona Amitai

With increasing shortage of fresh water globally, more countries are consuming desalinated seawater (DSW). In Israel >50% of drinking water is now derived from DSW. Desalination removes magnesium, and hypomagnesaemia has been associated with increased cardiac morbidity and mortality. Presently the impact of consuming DSW on body magnesium status has not been established. We quantified changes in serum magnesium in a large population based study (n = 66,764), before and after desalination in regions consuming DSW and in regions where DSW has not been used. In the communities that switched to DSW in 2013, the mean serum magnesium was 2.065 ± 0.19 mg/dl before desalination and fell to 2.057 ± 0.19 mg/dl thereafter (p < 0.0001). In these communities 1.62% of subjects exhibited serum magnesium concentrations ≤1.6 mg/dl between 2010 and 2013. This proportion increased by 24% between 2010–2013 and 2015–2016 to 2.01% (p = 0.0019). In contrast, no such changes were recorded in the communities that did not consume DSW. Due to the emerging evidence of increased cardiac morbidity and mortality associated with hypomagnesaemia, it is vital to consider re-introduction of magnesium to DSW.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 40-40
Author(s):  
Hanan Goldberg ◽  
Faizan Moshin ◽  
Zachary William Abraham Klaassen ◽  
Thenappan Chandrasekar ◽  
Christopher Wallis ◽  
...  

40 Background: Prostate cancer (PC) is the most common non-cutaneous cancer in Canadian men and the third most common cause of cancer death in Canada. Several studies have shown that use of commonly prescribed medications, including those used for diabetes and hypercholesterolemia, is associated with improved survival in various malignancies, including PC. There has not been any large population-based study, examining the effects of these and other commonly prescribed medications, on the rate of PC diagnosis, over a 20 years follow-up period. Methods: A retrospective population-based study using data from the institute of clinical evaluative sciences, including all male patients aged 65 and above in Ontario who have had a negative first prostate biopsy between 1994 and 2016. We assessed the impact of commonly prescribed medications on PC diagnosis. The medications included Statins (hydrophilic and hydrophobic), diabetes drugs (metformin, insulins, sulfonylureas, and thizolidinedions), proton pump inhibitors, 5 alpha reductase inhibitors, and alpha blockers. Time dependent Cox regression proportional hazards models were performed determine predictors of PC diagnosis. Medication exposure was time varying and modeled as “ever” vs. “never” use or as cumulative exposure for 6 months of usage. A priori variables included in the model included age, ADG comorbidity score, rurality index, index year, and all medications. Results: A total of 51,415 men were analyzed over a mean (SD) follow-up time of 8.06 (5.44) years. Overall, 10,466 patients (20.4%) were diagnosed with PC, 16,726 (32.5%) had died, and 1,460 (2.8%) patients died of PC. On multivariable analysis increasing age and rurality index were associated with higher PC diagnosis rate, while a more recent index year, and usage of hydrophilic statins was associated with a lower diagnosis rate in both “ever” vs. “never” and cumulative models (HR 0.832, 95% CI 0.732-0.946, p = 0.005, HR 0.973 95% CI 0.951-0.995, p = 0.016, respectively). Conclusions: Hydrophilic statins are associated with a clinically significant lower PC diagnosis. To our knowledge this is the first study demonstrating a clear advantage of one group of statins (hydrophilic) over another (hydrophobic) in PC prevention.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randi Marie Mohus ◽  
Lise T. Gustad ◽  
Anne Sofie Furberg ◽  
Martine Kjølberg Moen ◽  
Kristin Vardheim Liyanarachi ◽  
...  

AbstractObjectiveTo examine the effect of sex on risk of bloodstream infections (BSI) and BSI mortality and to assess to what extent known risk factors for BSI mediate this association in the general population.ParticipantsThe prospective, population-based HUNT2 Survey (1995-97) in Norway invited 93,898 inhabitants ≥20 years in the Nord-Trøndelag region, whereof 65,237 (69.5%) participated. 46.8% of the participants were men.ExposuresSex and potential mediators between sex and BSI; health behaviours (smoking, alcohol consumption), education attainment, cardiovascular risk factors (systolic blood pressure, non-HDL cholesterol, body mass index) and previous or current comorbidities.Main outcome measuresSex differences in risk of first-time BSI, BSI mortality (death within first 30 days after a BSI), BSI caused by the most frequent bacteria, and the impact of known BSI risk factors as mediators.ResultsWe documented a first-time BSI for 1,840 (2.9%) participants (51.3% men) during a median follow-up of 14.8 years. Of these, 396 (0.6%) died (56.6% men). Men had 41% higher risk of any first-time BSI (95% confidence interval (CI), 28 to 54%) than women. An estimated 34% of the excess risk of BSI in men was mediated by known BSI risk factors. The hazard ratio (HR) with 95% CI for BSI due to S. aureus was 2.09 (1.28 to 2.54), S. pneumoniae 1.36 (1.05 to 1.76), and E. coli 0.97 (0.84 to 1.13) in men vs women. BSI related mortality was higher in men compared to women with HR 1.87 (1.53 to 2.28).ConclusionsThis large population-based study show that men have higher risk of BSI than women. One-third of this effect was mediated by known risk factors for BSI. This raises important questions regarding sex specific approaches to reduce the burden of BSI.


BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e027941 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Luke Marinovich ◽  
Annette K Regan ◽  
Mika Gissler ◽  
Maria C Magnus ◽  
Siri Eldevik Håberg ◽  
...  

IntroductionShort interpregnancy interval (IPI) has been linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes. WHO recommends waiting at least 2 years after a live birth and 6 months after miscarriage or induced termination before conception of another pregnancy. The evidence underpinning these recommendations largely relies on data from low/middle-income countries. Furthermore, recent epidemiological investigations have suggested that these studies may overestimate the effects of IPI due to residual confounding. Future investigations of IPI effects in high-income countries drawing from large, population-based data sources are needed to inform IPI recommendations. We aim to assess the impact of IPIs on maternal and child health outcomes in high-income countries.Methods and analysisThis international longitudinal retrospective cohort study will include more than 18 million pregnancies, making it the largest study to investigate IPI in high-income countries. Population-based data from Australia, Finland, Norway and USA will be used. Birth records in each country will be used to identify consecutive pregnancies. Exact dates of birth and clinical best estimates of gestational length will be used to estimate IPI. Administrative birth and health data sources with >99% coverage in each country will be used to identify maternal sociodemographics, pregnancy complications, details of labour and delivery, birth and child health information. We will use matched and unmatched regression models to investigate the impact of IPI on maternal and infant outcomes, and conduct meta-analysis to pool results across countries.Ethics and disseminationEthics boards at participating sites approved this research (approval was not required in Finland). Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at international conferences, and will inform recommendations for optimal IPI in high-income countries. Findings will provide important information for women and families planning future pregnancies and for clinicians providing prenatal care and giving guidance on family planning.


2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nagendra Lal Srivastava ◽  
Shashi K. Chaudhary

This article deals with the analysis of direct impact of remittance on three development indicators viz. GDP, GNP and PCI of the nation which are also the dependent variables of the proposed models. The analysis has been carried out with linear and log-linear models under multiple regressions. The impact of remittance has been seen most remarkable in the GDP and GNP both in nominal and real terms. In the nominal GDP and GNP, the remittance shows 61 percent and 72 percent impact respectively while in real term it shows 48 percent and 55 percent respectively. It has also shown positive impact on the PCI but it is comparatively low (four percent in nominal and one percent in real terms). The growth rates of independent variables (Rm, K, L and X) have also been tested in the same model to find the effects on the dependent variables. The findings are positive except for labor force, but they are marginal which show that remittance has not been used effectively so as to increase the real growth rates of the economy. The Journal of Nepalese Business Studies Vol. IV, No.1 (2007) pp. 28-37


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