scholarly journals Probability Assessment of Slope Instability in Seasonally Cold Regions under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yulong Zhu ◽  
Tatsuya Ishikawa ◽  
Tomohito J. Yamada ◽  
Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Cold Regions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Assessment Approach

Abstract This paper proposes an effective approach for evaluating the influences of climate change on slope stability in seasonally cold regions. Firstly, to semi-quantitatively assess the effects of climate changes on the uncertainty of climate factors, this study analyzes the trend of the two main climate factors (precipitation and air temperature) by the regression analysis using the meteorological monitoring data of the past 120 years in different scales (e.g., world, country (Japan), and city (Sapporo)), and the meteorological simulation data obtained by downscaling the outputs of three different regional atmospheric models (RAMs) with lateral boundary conditions from three different general circulation models (GCMs). Next, to discuss the effects of different climate factors (air temperature, precipitation, etc.) and to determine the key climate factors on the slope instability, an assessment approach for evaluating the effects of climate changes on slope instability is proposed through the water content simulation and slope stability analysis using a 2-dimensional (2D) finite element method (FEM) homogeneous conceptual slope model with considering freeze-thaw action. Finally, to check the effectiveness of the above assessment approach, assessment of instability of an actual highway embankment slope with the local layer geometry is done by applying the past and predicted future climate data. The results indicate that affected by global warming, the air temperature rise in some cold cities is more serious. The predicted future weather will affect the shape of the normal density curve (NDC) of the distribution of slope failures in one year. The climate changes (especially the increase in precipitation) in the future will increase the infiltration during the Spring season. It will lengthen the time that the highway slope is in an unstable state due to high volumetric water content, thereby enhancing the instability of the slopes and threatening more slopes in the future.

scholarly journals Probability assessment of slope instability in seasonally cold regions under climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yulong Zhu ◽  
Tatsuya Ishikawa ◽  
Tomohito J. Yamada ◽  
Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Water Content ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Slope Failures ◽  
The Past ◽  
Assessment Approach

AbstractTo semi-quantitatively assess the effects of climate change on the slope failures, this paper proposes an effective approach for evaluating the influences of climate change on slope stability in seasonally cold regions. To discuss climate change, this study firstly analyzes the trend of the two main climate factors (precipitation and air temperature) based on the regression analysis results of the meteorological monitoring data during the past 120 years in different scales (e.g., world, country (Japan), and city (Sapporo)), and the downscaled outputs of three different regional atmospheric models (RAMs) with lateral boundary conditions from three different general circulation models (GCMs). Next, to discuss the effects of different climate factors (air temperature, precipitation, etc.) and to determine the key climate factors on the slope instability, a slope stability assessment approach for evaluating the effects of climate changes on slope instability is proposed through the water content simulation and slope stability analysis with considering freeze-thaw action. Finally, to check the effectiveness of the above assessment approach, assessment of instability of an actual highway embankment slope with the local layer geometry is done by applying the past and predicted future climate data. The results indicate that affected by global warming, the air temperature rise in some cold cities is more serious. The climate changes (especially the increase in precipitation) in the future will increase the infiltration during the Spring season. It will lengthen the time that the highway slope is in an unstable state due to high volumetric water content, causing the occurrence of slope failures will be more concentrated in April. While during the Ssummer-Autumn period, the time domain of its occurrence will become wider.

scholarly journals Effects of climate changes on phenological periods of apple, cherry and wheat in TurkeyTürkiye’de iklim değişikliğinin elma, kiraz ve buğdayın fenolojik dönemlerine etkileri

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1036 ◽  
Author(s):  
Necla Türkoğlu ◽  
Serhat Şensoy ◽  
Olgu Aydın
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Wheat Plant ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Negative Relationships

It is known that the increase in air temperature from 1980 to present has dramatically changed the phenological periods of the plants in a large part of the world. In this study, the relationships between phenological periods of wheat plant, apple and cherry trees planted large areas in Turkey and climate change were investigated. In this study, the climate and phenological data for 1971-2012 period belonging to the General Directorate of Meteorology were used. The correlation coefficients between temperature and phenological data were calculated, and their trends were examined using Mann-Kendall trend analysis. In Turkey, positive temperature anomalies have been observed since 1994 until present days. Negative relationships were found between phenological periods of apple, cherry and wheat and the average temperatures of February-May period when the plants grow faster. This situation shows that the plants shift their phenological periods to the earlier times in response to the increasing temperatures. The trend calculated for harvest times of apple, cherry, and wheat are -25, -22, -40 days/100 years respectively. It was calculated that an increase of 1.0ºC in the temperatures of the February-May period will shift the harvest times of apple, cheery and wheat by 5, 4 and 8 days earlier respectively. Özet1980’lerden günümüze hava sıcaklıklarındaki artış, Dünya’nın büyük bir bölümünde bitkilerin fenolojik dönemlerini önemli ölçüde değiştirmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de geniş alanlar kaplayan buğday, elma ve kiraz bitkilerinin fenolojik dönemleri ile iklim değişikliği arasındaki ilişkiler araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’ne ait 1971-2012 döneminin iklim ve fenolojik verileri kullanılmıştır. Sıcaklık ile fenolojik veriler arasındaki korelasyon katsayıları hesaplanmış ve Mann- Kendall trend analizi ile eğilimlerine bakılmıştır. Türkiye’de 1994 yılından bu yana pozitif sıcaklık anomalileri bulunmuştur. Elma, kiraz ve buğdayın fenolojik dönemleri ile bitki gelişiminin fazla olduğu şubat-mayıs ortalama sıcaklıkları arasında negatif ilişki saptanmıştır. Bu durum bitkilerin artan sıcaklıklara tepki olarak fenolojik dönemlerini erkene kaydırdıklarını göstermektedir. Elma, kiraz ve buğdayın hasat tarihleri için hesaplanan trend sırasıyla-25, -22, -40 gün/100 yıl şeklindedir. Şubat-mayıs arası sıcaklıklarda 1.0°C’lik artışın anılan bitkilerin hasat tarihlerini sırasıyla 5, 4 ve 8 gün erkene kaydıracağı hesaplanmıştır.

scholarly journals Analysis of climate change in Dnipropetrovsk Region

2017 ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
V. V. Hrynchak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Average Annual Temperature

The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the "Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)" written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov. The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay's second page. Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region. The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing. We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation. The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons' dates and change of seasons' duration. We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified. Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.

scholarly journals Rapid climate change results in long-lasting spatial homogenization of phylogenetic diversity

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bianca Saladin ◽  
Loïc Pellissier ◽  
Catherine H. Graham ◽  
Michael P. Nobis ◽  
Nicolas Salamin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Phylogenetic Diversity ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Seed Plants ◽  
Climate Oscillations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Scientific understanding of biodiversity dynamics, resulting from past climate oscillations and projections of future changes in biodiversity, has advanced over the past decade. Little is known about how these responses, past or future, are spatially connected. Analyzing the spatial variability in biodiversity provides insight into how climate change affects the accumulation of diversity across space. Here, we evaluate the spatial variation of phylogenetic diversity of European seed plants among neighboring sites and assess the effects of past rapid climate changes during the Quaternary on these patterns. Our work shows a marked homogenization in phylogenetic diversity across Central and Northern Europe linked to high climate change velocity and large distances to refugia. Our results suggest that the future projected loss in evolutionary heritage may be even more dramatic, as homogenization in response to rapid climate change has occurred among sites across large landscapes, leaving a legacy that has lasted for millennia.

scholarly journals Fragile States Index Considering Climate Factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 74
Author(s):  
Geng-Jian Zhou ◽  
Qiao-Xu Qin ◽  
Wei-Zhou Lin ◽  
Yuan-Biao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Fragile States ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Profound Impact ◽  
The Past ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
Intervention Policy ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
The Impact

Over the past few decades, the Earth’s climate has undergone conspicuous changes, some of which have a profound impact on social and governmental systems. The purpose of this paper is to establish a model for measuring national fragile and the impact of climate change on a country. For this purpose, we first define the Fragile States Index (FSI) to measure the fragility of a country based on population, crime rate and education, which are the three aspects that most countries or regions will focus on. Second, we use the FSI to illustrate how climate change affects the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Third, we analyze the definitive indicators of Indonesia and predict the changes of FSI. Finally, the effects of each intervention policy were obtained by analyzing Indonesia’s intervention policy on environmental change. To provide ideas for intervention on climate change.

scholarly journals Climatic controls on watershed reference evapotranspiration vary dramatically during the past 50 years in southern China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengsheng Qin ◽  
Lu Hao ◽  
Lei Sun ◽  
Yongqiang Liu ◽  
Ge Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Southern China ◽  
The Past ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important hydrometeorological term widely used in water resource management, hydrological modeling, and understanding and projecting the hydrological effects of future climate change and land use change. Identifying the individual climatic controls on ETo helps better understand the processes of global climatic change impacts on local water resources and also simplify modeling efforts to predict actual evapotranspiration. We conducted a case study on the Qinhuai River Basin (QRB), a watershed dominated by a humid subtropical climate and mixed land uses in southern China. Long term (1961–2012) daily meteorological data at six weather stations across the watershed were used to estimate ETo by the FAO-56 Penman−Monteith model. The seasonal and annual trends of ETo were examined using the Mann−Kendall nonparametric test. The individual contributions from each meteorological variable were quantified by a detrending method. The results showed that basin-wide annual ETo had a decreasing trend during 1961–1987 due to decreased wind speed (WS), solar radiation (Rs), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and increased relative humidity (RH). These variables had different magnitudes of contribution to the ETo trend in different seasons examined during 1961−1987. However, during 1988–2012, both seasonal and annual ETo showed an increasing trend, mainly due to increased VPD and decreased RH and, to lesser extent, to decreased absolute humidity (AH) and a rising air temperature. We show that the key climatic controls on ETo have dramatically shifted as a result of global climate change during the past five decades. Now the atmospheric demand, instead of air temperature alone, is a major control on ETo. Thus, we conclude that accurately predicting current and future ETo and hydrological change under a changing climate must consider changes in VPD (i.e., air humidity and temperature) in the study region. Water resource management in the study basin must consider the increasing trend of ETo to meet the associated increasing water demand for irrigation agriculture and domestic water uses.

ASSESSMENT OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CASPIAN SEA LEVEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE FUTURE UNTIL 2050

2021 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-77
Author(s):  
N.I. Ivkina ◽  
◽  
A.V. Galayeva ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Water Surface ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
The Future

The article considers the possible fluctuation of the Caspian Sea level in the future until 2050, taking into an account the climate changes. For this purpose, possible changes in the river inflow to the sea and meteorological parameters (precipitation, air temperature and evaporation from the water surface) were predicted. Changes in the meteorological parameters were estimated according to two climate scenarios RCP4. 5 and RCP8.5.

Global climate changes during the most recent two millennia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah S. Eggleston ◽  
Oliver Bothe ◽  
Nerilie Abram ◽  
Bronwen Konecky ◽  
Hans Linderholm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
Global Climate Changes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Earth’S Climate

<p>The past two thousand years is a key interval for climate science because this period encompasses both the era of human-induced global warming and a much longer interval when changes in Earth's climate were governed principally by natural drivers. This earlier 'pre-industrial' period is particularly important for two reasons. Firstly, we now have a growing number of well-dated, climate sensitive proxy data with high temporal resolution that spans the full period. Secondly, the pre-industrial climate provides context for present-day climate change, sets real-world targets against which to evaluate the performance of climate models, and allows us to address other questions of Earth sciences that cannot be answered using only a century and a half of observational data. </p><p>Here, we first provide several perspectives on the concept of a 'pre-industrial climate'. Then, we highlight the activities of the PAGES 2k Network, an international collaborative effort focused on global climate change during the past two thousand years. We highlight those aspects of pre-industrial conditions (including both past climate changes and past climate drivers) that are not yet well constrained, and suggest potential areas for research during this period that would be relevant to the evolution of Earth's future climate.</p>

Modeling of climate change impact on hydrological regime in small headwater mountainous catchments in Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamila Hlavcova ◽  
Martin Kubán ◽  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Jan Szolgay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Differential Evolution Algorithm ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Reference Period

<p>Assessment of the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime is important for sustainable water resources management. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climate changes on the hydrological regime of the headwater catchment of the Vistucky Creek (area 9.8 km2) in south-western Slovakia. Changes in climatic characteristics (i.e. precipitation and air temperature) for periods 2022-2060 and 2062-2100 were prepared by two regional climate models KNMI and MPI using the A1B emission scenario (average related to fossil carbon production). Both climatic scenarios assume increase in the air temperature and precipitation (higher in winter than in summer). A lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model (the HBV-based TUW model) was used to simulate the catchment hydrological behaviour. The TUW model was calibrated for the reference period of 1982 – 2008. The calibration of the model was performed 50 times with a differential evolution algorithm. After obtaining the collection of the 50 parameter sets, the best set (in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the volume error) was chosen. This set of model parameters was used for the simulation of long-term mean monthly runoff for the three periods (i.e. 1982-2008, 2022-2060, and 2062-2100). The results show that changes in the long-term runoff seasonality and extremality of hydrological cycle could be expected in the future if the climate changes as the scenarios assume. The runoff should increase in autumn and winter months (i.e. from September to February) and decrease in spring and summer months (i.e, from April to August) compared to the reference period. Peakflows should increase in period 2062-2100 while discharge minima should slightly decrease (only for the climatic data from the KNMI model). It indicates possible increase in flow extremality. Catchment water storage as expressed by the soil moisture index and baseflow should decrease in period 2062-2100, especially according to climatic data from the KNMI model. Our contribution will discuss these changes in hydrological regime in the climate change context.</p>

scholarly journals MODELING OF REDUCING RISK OF DIRECT IMPACT (HAILSTONES) IN AGRICULTURE

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 21-26
Author(s):  
B.A. Ashabokov ◽  
◽  
L.M. Fedchenko ◽  
A.А. Tashilova ◽  
L.A. Kesheva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Calculation Results

Due to the fact that the south of Russia is the most important producer of agricultural products, the work discusses the possible consequences of climate change and reduce the risks associated with them. At the same time, it is assumed that the risks associated with climate change can be caused by both “slow” climate changes (increase in surface air temperature) and dangerous weather events (hail), the frequency and destructive force of which increase due to climate change. The paper discusses possible approaches to reducing risks associated with hazardous weather events (hailstones). In the framework of the theory of decision-making, the formulation of the problem of reducing the losses of a given industry from the noted phenomena, which is the task of making decisions in risk conditions, is proposed. The features of information support of this problem and the main tasks that arise in the way of its practical use are discussed. The results of calculations that were performed to analyze the effectiveness of the proposed method to reduce agricultural losses from urban habits are presented. The calculation results showed that the method is quite effective and can be used to reduce agricultural losses from hail.

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