scholarly journals Changes in runoff in two neighbouring catchments in the Bohemian Forest related to climate and land cover changes

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 342-352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Bernsteinová ◽  
Claus Bässler ◽  
Lothar Zimmermann ◽  
Jakub Langhammer ◽  
Burkhard Beudert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
National Park ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Tree Cover ◽  
Slope Position ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Bohemian Forest ◽  
The Bohemian Forest ◽  
High Flows

Abstract There is public concern that large-scale disturbances to forest cover caused by insects and storm winds in the Bohemian Forest could intensify high water flows and enhance the expected flooding risks predicted in current regional climate change scenarios. We analysed stream discharge in Upper Vydra and Große Ohe, neighbouring catchments in the Bohemian Forest, the largest contiguous forested area in Central Europe. Upper Vydra, in the Šumava National Park, and Große Ohe (including the Upper Große Ohe headwater catchment in the Bavarian Forest National Park) are similar in size, but differ in land use cover and the extent of disturbed Norway spruce stands. Publicly available runoff and meteorological data (1978–2011) were examined using non-parametric trend and breakpoint analysis. Together with mapped vegetation cover changes, the results were used to address the following questions: 1) are there significant changes in the hydrological cycle and, if so, do these changes relate to 2) the extent and expansion of disturbance in forests stands and/or 3) altered precipitation dynamics and thermal conditions? We found no marked overall change in annual runoff or in annual or seasonal precipitation, but a significant increase in high flows in March. This overall trend related to the marked warming in late winter and early spring (+~4 K in April, p < 0.01), irrespective of altitude and slope position. It significantly shifted the end of the snow cover period by more than three weeks to the beginning/middle of April depending on altitude, and intensified snow melt. In the Upper Große Ohe catchment, a significant decrease in catchment balance, the difference between the long term precipitation and runoff (–72 mm, 11%) was found when the loss of tree cover reached 30% of catchment area. Diminished evapotranspiration losses from severely disturbed stands increased groundwater recharge during summer and caused a significant rise in low flows in autumn. However, observed increases in late winter high flows were due to warming only. They could be further intensified by the increasing winter precipitation predicted under present climate change scenarios, and would therefore increase the risk of flooding at lower elevations.

scholarly journals Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1769-1785 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Groppelli ◽  
A. Soncini ◽  
D. Bocchiola ◽  
R. Rosso
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Alpine Watershed ◽  
Flow Variables

Abstract. We investigate future (2045–2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km2) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990–1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045–2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Groundwater Nitrate Contamination Integrated Modeling for Climate and Water Resources Scenarios: The Case of Lake Karla Over-Exploited Aquifer

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantelis Sidiropoulos ◽  
Georgios Tziatzios ◽  
Lampros Vasiliades ◽  
Nikitas Mylopoulos ◽  
Athanasios Loukas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Modeling Tools

Groundwater quantity and quality degradation by agricultural practices is recorded as one of the most critical issues worldwide. This is explained by the fact that groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, since it is a source of natural enrichment for rivers, lakes, and wetlands and constitutes the main source of potable water. The need of aquifers simulation, taking into account water resources components at watershed level, is imperative for the choice of appropriate restoration management practices. An integrated water resources modeling approach, using hydrological modeling tools, is presented for assessing the nitrate fate and transport on an over-exploited aquifer with intensive and extensive agricultural activity under various operational strategies and future climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change affects nitrates concentration in groundwater, which is likely to be increased due to the depletion of the groundwater table and the decrease of groundwater enrichment in the future water balance. Application of operational agricultural management practices with the construction and use of water storage infrastructure tend to compensate the groundwater resources degradation due to climate change impacts.

The response of Bonis Catchment in Calabria –Southern Italy to different management options under climate change scenarios.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mouna Feki ◽  
Giovanni Ravazzani ◽  
Tommaso Caloiero ◽  
Gaetano Pellicone
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Small Catchment

&lt;p&gt;Forests ecosystems provide several ecosystem services among which the regulation of the hydrological cycle. These ecosystems are exposed to different forms of disturbances induced by human activities, management strategies, and climate change. The objective of INNOMED project, for the Italian case study, is to understand the response of forest to different silvicultural practices under climate change conditions. The study site is the the Bonis catchment located in the mountain area of Sila Greca (39&amp;#176;25&amp;#8217;15&amp;#8217;&amp;#8217;N, 16&amp;#176;12&amp;#8217;38&amp;#8217;&amp;#8217;W), in the Calabria region (southern Italy). This small catchment has a surface of 1.39 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; and a mean elevation of 1131 m above sea level. Almost 93% of the total area is covered by forest stand, dominated by about 50-year-old Calabrian pine (Pinus laricio Poiret) forests. In order to simulate the response of the catchment to different climate and management scenarios, FEST-WB distributed hydrological model was used. Within the framework of this project, FEST-FOREST module has been implemented in order to consider vegetation dynamics interactions with the hydrological response of the watershed. Since 1986, the basin was monitored through the installation of different instruments. Rainfall was measured by three rain gauges (with a tipping bucket) together with temperature that were measured at three different meteorological stations. In May 2003, a tower for measurement of eddy fluxes was installed at an altitude of 1100 m a.s.l, on a 54 years old plantation of Laricio pine which allowed monitoring of other parameters. Runoff was measured at the outlet of the catchment using a gauging structure. These data were used for the calibration and validation of the model before being implemented for future scenarios simulations. The results of these simulations delivered the potential impacts and the vulnerability of the Bonis catchment to different scenarios. These outcomes provide for the stakeholders a scientifically based and solid information for a sustainable management of the catchment.&lt;/p&gt;

Future projections of river floods over the European region using EURO-CORDEX simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Di Sante ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Filippo Giorgi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
European Regions ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
River Floods ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;In a sick world with fever caused by global warming, the hydrological cycle will experience most certainly large changes in intensity and variability. One of the most intense phenomena that will probably be affected by the climate change is the flood hazard. For a long time the stakeholders have been dedicated resources to assess the risk linked to the floods magnitude and frequencies and shaping the public infrastructures based on the assumption of their immutability. Under the effect of the climate change this assumption can be broken and a different approach should be followed to avoid large disasters and threaten to the population health. In this study the biggest ever ensemble of hydroclimatic&amp;#160; simulations has been used to simulate the river floods over the European regions. A river routing model derived from a distributed hydrological model (CHyM) has been forced with 44 EURO-CORDEX, 5 CMIP5 and 7 CMIP6 simulations to assess the effects of the climate change on the floods magnitude under two different scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for EURO-CORDEX and CMIP5, SSP126 and SSP585 for CMIP6). The impact of the climate change has been evaluated using a 100 year return period discharge indicator (Q100) obtained fitting a Gumbel distribution on the yearly peak discharge values. Results show a decrease of magnitude of flood events over the Mediterranean, Scandinavia and the North Eastern European regions. Over these two last regions the signal appear particularly robust and in contrast to the projected mean flow signal that is shown to increase by the end of the century mainly driven by the related increase of mean precipitations. The reduction of snow accumulation during winter time linked to a large increase of late winter temperatures is the main reason behind the decrease of floods over the North Eastern regions. An opposite signal is projected&amp;#160; instead over Great Britain, Ireland, Northern Italy and Western Europe where a robust signal of floods magnitude increase is evident driven by e the increase of extreme precipitations. All these simulation are meant to feed the impact community and to shade the light on the use of climate information for impact assessment studies.&lt;/p&gt;

Impacts of the climate change on runoff and diffuse phosphorus load to Lake Balaton (Hungary)

2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 417-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Á. Kovács ◽  
A. Clement
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Urban Runoff ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Phosphorus Concentration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Lake Balaton ◽  
Phosphorus Load ◽  
The Impact

The paper outlines a multi-component assessment of the impacts of the climate change on runoff and total phosphorus loads to the large shallow Lake Balaton in Hungary. Present hydrological cycle of the lake catchment has been examined using the rainfall-runoff model WetSpa. Particular phosphorus concentration in runoff was estimated on the basis of the simulated streamflow using an empirical power equation. Dissolved phosphorus concentrations were determined as a function of landuse and soil type of the corresponding sub-catchment. The model was calibrated and validated against daily observations manually at monitoring sites of sixteen inflowing streams around the lake. Runoff stemming from shoreline urban developments was calculated by the urban runoff simulation model SWMM. Phosphorus concentrations in urban runoff were calculated by an empirical relationship derived from field measurements. The model was henceforward run for climate change scenario analysis. Present weather data were modified by the climate change scenarios imported from the results of the CLIME project. The results indicate that the impact of the climate change on runoff and phosphorus load appears in the change of the distribution within a time period rather than in the total volume. However, due to the high uncertainties in climate models, the presented calculations are possible assumptions rather than established statements.

scholarly journals Littoral macroinvertebrate communities of alpine lakes along an elevational gradient (Hohe Tauern National Park, Austria)

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0255619
Author(s):  
Anne Bartels ◽  
Ulrike G. Berninger ◽  
Florian Hohenberger ◽  
Stephen Wickham ◽  
Jana S. Petermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
National Park ◽  
Habitat Type ◽  
Alpine Lakes ◽  
Benthic Macroinvertebrate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Macroinvertebrate Communities ◽  
Rocky Habitats ◽  
Lake Size ◽  
Habitat Parameters

Alpine lakes support unique communities which may respond with great sensitivity to climate change. Thus, an understanding of the drivers of the structure of communities inhabiting alpine lakes is important to predict potential changes in the future. To this end, we sampled benthic macroinvertebrate communities and measured environmental variables (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, pH, nitrate, turbidity, blue-green algal phycocyanin, chlorophyll-a) as well as structural parameters (habitat type, lake size, maximum depth) in 28 lakes within Hohe Tauern National Park, Austria, between altitudes of 2,000 and 2,700 m a.s.l. The most abundant macroinvertebrate taxa that we found were Chironomidae and Oligochaeta. Individuals of Coleoptera, Diptera, Hemiptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera, Tricladida, Trombidiformes, Veneroida were found across the lakes and determined to family level. Oligochaeta were not determined further. Generalized linear modeling and permanova were used to identify the impact of measured parameters on macroinvertebrate communities. We found that where rocky habitats dominated the lake littoral, total macroinvertebrate abundance and family richness were lower while the ratio of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) was higher. Zoo- and phytoplankton densities were measured in a subset of lakes but were not closely associated with macroinvertebrate abundance or family richness. With increasing elevation, macroinvertebrate abundances in small and medium-sized lakes increased while they decreased in large lakes, with a clear shift in community composition (based on families). Our results show that habitat parameters (lake size, habitat type) have a major influence on benthic macroinvertebrate community structure whereas elevation itself did not show any significant effects on communities. However, even habitat parameters are likely to change under climate change scenarios (e.g. via increased erosion) and this may affect alpine lake macroinvertebrates.

scholarly journals ICDP workshop on scientific drilling of Nam Co on the Tibetan Plateau: 1 million years of paleoenvironmental history, geomicrobiology, tectonics and paleomagnetism derived from sediments of a high-altitude lake

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 63-70
Author(s):  
Torsten Haberzettl ◽  
Gerhard Daut ◽  
Nora Schulze ◽  
Volkhard Spiess ◽  
Junbo Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Deep Biosphere ◽  
Nam Co ◽  
Societal Relevance

Abstract. The Tibetan Plateau is of peculiar societal relevance as it provides freshwater from the so-called “Water Tower of Asia” to a large portion of the Asian population. However, future climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in this area. To define parameters for future climate change scenarios it is necessary to improve the knowledge about thresholds, timing, pace and intensity of past climatic changes and associated environmental impacts. Sedimentary archives reaching far back in time and spanning several glacial–interglacial cycles such as Nam Co provide the unique possibility to extract such information. In order to explore the scientific opportunities that an ICDP drilling effort at Nam Co would provide, 40 scientists from 13 countries representing various scientific disciplines met in Beijing from 22 to 24 May 2018. Besides paleoclimatic investigations, opportunities for paleomagnetic, deep biosphere, tectonic and paleobiological studies were discussed. After having explored the technical and logistical challenges and the scientific opportunities all participants agreed on the great value and need to drill this extraordinary archive, which has a sediment thickness of more than 1 km, likely covering more than 1 Ma.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Forested Watershed That Drains to Lake Erken in Sweden: An Analysis Using SWAT+ and CMIP6 Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1803
Author(s):  
Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case

Precipitation and temperature around the world are expected to be altered by climate change. This will cause regional alterations to the hydrological cycle. For proper water management, anticipating these changes is necessary. In this study, the basin of Lake Erken (Sweden) was simulated with the recently released software SWAT+ to study such alterations in a short (2026–2050), medium (2051–2075) and long (2076–2100) period, under two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85). Seven global climate models from the latest projections of future climates that are available (CIMP 6) were compared and ensembled. A bias-correction of the models’ data was performed with five different methods to select the most appropriate one. Results showed that the temperature is expected to increase in the future from 2 to 4 °C, and precipitation from 6% to 20%, depending on the scenario. As a result, water discharge would also increase by about 18% in the best-case scenario and by 50% in the worst-case scenario, and the surface runoff would increase between 5% and 30%. The floods and torrential precipitations would also increase in the basin. This trend could lead to soil impoverishment and reduced water availability in the basin, which could damage the watershed’s forests. In addition, rising temperatures would result in a 65% reduction in the snow water equivalent at best and 92% at worst.

Present and future water security under socioeconomic and climate changes in the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andres Goyburo ◽  
Pedro Rau ◽  
Waldo Lavado ◽  
Fabian Drenkhan ◽  
Wouter Buytaert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
Current Water ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;This research assesses present (2009-2016) and future (until 2100) levels of water security taking into consideration socioeconomic and climate change scenarios using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) tool for semidistributed hydrological modeling. The study area covers the&amp;#160; Vilcanota-Urubamba basin in the southern Peruvian Andes and presents a complex water demand context as a glacier-fed system.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Current total water demand is estimated in 5.12E+9 m3/year and includes agriculture (6674.17 m3/year), domestic (7.79E+07m3/year), industrial (1.01E+06 m3/year) and energy (5.03e+9 m3/year) consumption. For assessing the current water supply, observed flow data is used to simulate and validate the model (also accounting for glacier melt contribution). The analysis of unmet water demand for the period 2016&amp;#8211;2100 was computed using the soil moisture scheme of the WEAP model, which simulates the hydrological cycle and generates future scenarios for water demand. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth and increasing agriculture area) and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;These results will allow for the first time to evaluate the impact of changes in glacier melt contributions on water security taking into account also changes in water demand.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study also further explores the importance of incorporating science and policy within a broader study of water security. As a result, it is expected to deliver high spatial resolution water demand maps and adaptation strategies for stakeholders. This research is part of the RAHU project as a new multidisciplinary collaboration between UK and Peruvian scientists.&lt;/p&gt;

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