GROWING NUMBERS OF DISABLED
It has been estimated that during the period 1975-2000 the number of the disabled in the world will grow by about 200 million. According to another estimate, in 1970 there were some 60-70 million disabled children in the developing countries; if existing preventive measures were not applied and new ones developed, that number could be expected to grow to about 135-150 million in the year 2000. This may be compared with an estimated increase in the number of disabled children from 12 to 25 million in developed countries over the same period. Specific factors that may affect the future proportion of disabled persons in the world include: (1) changes in the age composition of the general population; (2) changes in the patterns of mortality and morbidity; (3) changes in the extent of health services; and (4) increase in urbanization and industrialization. It is generally accepted that unless major improvements in disability prevention are achieved, the proportion of the disabled will remain the same or show a slight increase in the next 20-30 years. But since the world population is expected to grow about 2 thousand million in this period, the absolute number of disabled persons will show a dramatic increase.