scholarly journals Trends in fertility rates, proportion of antenatal consultations and caesarean sections among Brazilian adolescents

2021 ◽  
Vol 74 (suppl 4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Milena Laryssa Costa Bicalho ◽  
Fernanda Gontijo Araújo ◽  
Gisele Nepomuceno de Andrade ◽  
Eunice Francisca Martins ◽  
Mariana Santos Felisbino-Mendes
Keyword(s):  
Antenatal Care ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Annual Percentage Change ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Using Data

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the temporal trends in the fertility rate, proportion of antenatal consultations and caesarean sections in Brazilian adolescents aged 15 to 19, between 2000 and 2015. Methods: The fertility rate, proportion of prenatal consultations and proportion of routes of birth were calculated using data from DATASUS. The trend analysis was performed using the Prais-Winsten regression model and the annual percentage change. Results: There was a trend of reduction of 3.5% per year in the fertility rate among adolescents (p<0.05), in addition to an increasing trend of 6% per year in the proportion of more than six antenatal consultations (p <0.0001) and an increasing trend of 6.8% per year in the proportion of caesarean sections (p<0.0001). Conclusion: Despite the decreasing trend in fertility rates among Brazilian adolescents, they remain high. Also noteworthy is the growing trend for caesarean sections, even with improved access to antenatal care.

scholarly journals Space–time clustering and temporal trends of hospitalizations due to pulmonary tuberculosis: potential strategy for assessing health care policies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
João Almeida Santos ◽  
Danielle T Santos ◽  
Ricardo A Arcencio ◽  
Carla Nunes
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Tuberculosis ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Public Hospitals ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Ambulatory Setting ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Annual Percentage Change

Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB) causes pressure on healthcare resources, especially in terms of hospital admissions, despite being considered an ambulatory care-sensitive condition for which timely and effective care in ambulatory setting could prevent the need for hospitalization. Our objectives were to describe the spatial and temporal variation in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) hospitalizations, identify critical geographic areas at municipality level and characterize clusters of PTB hospitalizations to help the development of tailored disease management strategies that could improve TB control. Methods Ecologic study using sociodemographic, geographical and clinical information of PTB hospitalization cases from continental Portuguese public hospitals, between 2002 and 2016. Descriptive statistics, spatiotemporal cluster analysis and temporal trends were conducted. Results The space–time analysis identified five clusters of higher rates of PTB hospitalizations (2002–16), including the two major cities in the country (Lisboa and Porto). Globally, we observed a −7.2% mean annual percentage change in rate with only one of the identified clusters (out of six) with a positive trend (+4.34%). In the more recent period (2011–16) was obtained a mean annual percentage change in rate of −8.12% with only one cluster identified with an increase trend (+9.53%). Conclusions Our results show that space–time clustering and temporal trends analysis can be an invaluable resource to monitor the dynamic of the disease and contribute to the design of more effective, focused interventions. Interventions such as enhancing the detection of active and latent infection, improving monitoring and evaluation of treatment outcomes or adjusting the network of healthcare providers should be tailored to the specific needs of the critical areas identified.

Pulmonary tuberculosis space–time clustering and spatial variation in temporal trends in Portugal, 2000–2010: an updated analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (15) ◽  
pp. 3211-3219 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. AREIAS ◽  
T. BRIZ ◽  
C. NUNES
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variation ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Annual Percentage Change ◽  
Clustering Methods ◽  
Large Space ◽  
Mainland Portugal ◽  
Level Data ◽  
High Space

SUMMARYPortugal, a medium- to low-level endemic country (21·6 cases/100 000 population in 2012), has one of the highest European Union tuberculosis (TB) incidences. Although incidence is declining progressively, the country's heterogeneity in both regional endemics and their evolution suggests the importance of a better understanding of subnational epidemiology to customize TB control efforts. We aimed to update knowledge on municipality-years pulmonary TB incidence clustering, identify areas with different time trends, and show the potential of combining complementary clustering methods in control of infectious diseases. We used national surveillance municipality-level data (mainland Portugal, 2000–2010). Space–time clustering and spatial variation in temporal trends methods were applied. Space–time critical clusters identified (P < 0·001) were still the Lisbon and Oporto regions. The global incidence declined at a 5·81% mean annual percentage change, with high space–time heterogeneity and distinct time trend clusters (P < 0·001). Municipalities with incidences declining more rapidly belonged to critical areas. In particular, the Oporto trend cluster had a consistent −8·98% mean annual percentage change. Large space–time heterogeneities were identified, with critical incidences in the greater Lisbon and Oporto regions, but declining more rapidly in these regions. Oporto showed a consistent, steeper decrease and could represent a good example of local control strategy. Combining results from these approaches gives promise for prospects for infectious disease control and the design of more effective, focused interventions.

scholarly journals Prevalence, Incidence, and Epidemic Trends of Osteoarthritis Among Adults in Beijing, China, From 2008 to 2017

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongbo Chen ◽  
Junhui Wu ◽  
Zijing Wang ◽  
Yao Wu ◽  
Tao Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Data ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Annual Percentage Change ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Medium Level ◽  
Health Insurance Claims ◽  
Beijing China ◽  
Crude Prevalence

Abstract Objective To estimate the prevalence, incidence, and epidemic trend of diagnosed osteoarthritis from 2008 to 2017 in Beijing, China. Methods This was a retrospective serial cross-sectional study. We used health-insurance claims of 17.7 million adults for 2008–2017 to identify people over 18 years-old with osteoarthritis. The population data for Beijing from China’s 6th national census were applied to standardize the results. Trends in prevalence and incidence were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Results We identified 2,793,467 people with osteoarthritis between 2008 and 2017, 60% of which were women. The 10-year average age-standardized prevalence and incidence of osteoarthritis in Beijing was, respectively, 5.2% and 28.5 per 1000 person-years. Prevalence increased with age, surging after 55 years-old. The average crude prevalence for this decade was 14.9% for people over 55 years-old: 10.7% for males and 20.4% for females. The prevalence showed an increasing trend from 2008 to 2017, including a period of rapid rise, with an annual percentage change of 44.3% from 2008 to 2011 (P༜0.05); the increase in prevalence was greatest in people under 35 years-old, with the an average annual percentage change of 36.1% (P < 0.05). Conclusion We observed that the average age-standardized prevalence of diagnosed osteoarthritis in Beijing per decade was at a low-to-medium level compared to worldwide levels. Annual prevalence increased significantly from 2008 to 2017, with osteoarthritis being diagnosed at younger ages. More public health efforts are needed to prevent osteoarthritis in China.

scholarly journals Incidence and prevalence of sporadic and hereditary MTC in Denmark 1960–2014: a nationwide study

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 829-839 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jes Sloth Mathiesen ◽  
Jens Peter Kroustrup ◽  
Peter Vestergaard ◽  
Kirstine Stochholm ◽  
Per Løgstrup Poulsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thyroid Carcinoma ◽  
Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Annual Percentage Change ◽  
Medullary Thyroid ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Average Annual Percentage Change

Recent studies have shown a significant increase in the temporal trend of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) incidence. However, it remains unknown to which extent sporadic medullary thyroid carcinoma (SMTC) and hereditary MTC (HMTC) affect the MTC incidence over time. We conducted a nationwide retrospective study using previously described RET and MTC cohorts combined with review of medical records, pedigree comparison and relevant nationwide registries. The study included 474 MTC patients diagnosed in Denmark between 1960 and 2014. In the nationwide period from 1997 to 2014, we recorded a mean age-standardized incidence of all MTC, SMTC and HMTC of 0.19, 0.13 and 0.06 per 100,000 per year, respectively. The average annual percentage change in incidence for all MTC, SMTC and HMTC were 1.0 (P = 0.542), 2.8 (P = 0.125) and −3.1 (P = 0.324), respectively. The corresponding figures for point prevalence at January 1, 2015 were 3.8, 2.5 and 1.3 per 100,000, respectively. The average annual percentage change in prevalence from 1998 to 2015 for all MTC, SMTC and HMTC was 2.8 (P < 0.001), 3.8 (P < 0.001) and 1.5 (P = 0.010), respectively. We found no significant change in the incidence of all MTC, SMTC and HMTC possibly due to our small sample size. However, due to an increasing trend in the incidence of all MTC and opposing trends of SMTC (increasing) and HMTC (decreasing) incidence, it seems plausible that an increase for all MTC seen by others may be driven by the SMTC group rather than the HMTC group.

scholarly journals Panel data analysis of employment and unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa and its impact on annual percentage change in GDP growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gideon Kweku Appiah ◽  
Kingsley Prempeh ◽  
Shadrack Benn ◽  
Ebenezer Oduro
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Annual Percentage Change ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Youth Population ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTSub-Sahara Africa has over the years been exposed to diverse arguments and agitations about the provision of employment to alleviate poverty in the sub region with the aim of achieving full employment. Whereas some economists and bibliographers believe of the significant impact that employment and unemployment have on annual percentage change in GDP growth, some do not. The main objective of the study is to access the impact that employment and unemployment have on annual percentage change in GDP growth in Sub-Saharan African countries. World Development Indicator (WDI) data was collected from the World Bank from the year 2000 to 2014 for the purpose of the study. A sample of 12 sub-Saharan African countries were randomly selected using a random number generator and variables taken. Two statistical models were used; the Pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression model and the Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) regression model with fixed effect was used to empirically access impact that employment and unemployment have on annual percentage change in GDP growth. Both the Pooled Ordinary Least Square regression model and the Least Square Dummy Variable regression model tested to be statistically significant but LSDV regression model explained a greater percentage of the variability of the model than the Pooled OLS for employment on GDP growth rate. The pooled OLS regression model was not statistically significant at 5% level of significance in assessing the impact that unemployment has on annual percentage change in GDP growth. Further empirical analysis of the study also revealed a positive relationship between annual percentage change in GDP growth and employment for the female population (Empl15+Female), employment rate for the male population (Empl15+Male) and employment rate for the Total Youth population (Empl15-24 total). Also, an inverse relationship existed between unemployment male youth population (15-24years), and female youth population (15-24years) on annual percentage change in GDP growth. The study can be improved by considering other factors that impact GDP growth other than employment and unemployment.Keywords: Employment, Unemployment, GDP growth rate, Pooled OLS, LSDV

scholarly journals Anal Cancer Risk Among People With HIV Infection in the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivian Colón-López ◽  
Meredith S. Shiels ◽  
Mark Machin ◽  
Ana P. Ortiz ◽  
Howard Strickler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Hiv Infection ◽  
Anal Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hiv Treatment ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Annual Percentage Change

Purpose People with HIV infection have an elevated risk of anal cancer. However, recent calendar trends are incompletely described, and which population subgroups might benefit from cancer screening is unknown. Methods We used linked data from HIV and cancer registries in nine US areas (1996 to 2012). We calculated standardized incidence ratios to compare anal cancer incidence in people with HIV infection with the general population, used Poisson regression to evaluate anal cancer incidence among subgroups of people with HIV and to assess temporal trends, and estimated the cumulative incidence of anal cancer to measure absolute risk. Results Among 447,953 people with HIV infection, anal cancer incidence was much higher than in the general population (standardized incidence ratio, 19.1; 95% CI, 18.1 to 20.0). Anal cancer incidence was highest among men who have sex with men (MSM), increased with age, and was higher in people with AIDS than in those without AIDS (ie, HIV only; adjusted incidence rate ratio, 3.82; 95% CI, 3.27 to 4.46). Incidence among people with HIV increased steeply during 1996 to 2000 (annual percentage change, 32.8%; 95% CI, −1.0% to 78.2%), reached a plateau during 2001 to 2008, and declined during 2008 to 2012 (annual percentage change, −7.2%; 95% CI, −14.4% to 0.6%). Cumulative incidence after a 5-year period was high for MSM with HIV only age 45 to 59 or ≥ 60 years (0.32% to 0.33%) and MSM with AIDS age 30 to 44, 45 to 59, or ≥ 60 years (0.29% to 0.65%). Conclusion Anal cancer incidence is markedly elevated among people with HIV infection, especially in MSM, older individuals, and people with AIDS. Recent declines may reflect delayed benefits of HIV treatment. Groups with high cumulative incidence of anal cancer may benefit from screening.

scholarly journals Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service?

2017 ◽  
Vol 105 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Kokol
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Recent Trend ◽  
Academic Library ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Annual Percentage Change ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Analysis Software ◽  
Library Service ◽  
Trend Line ◽  
Scopus Database

Objective: Temporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians.Methods: The International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the selected journals were retrieved from the Scopus database, and extracted data were exported to Joinpoint trend analysis software to perform trend analysis.Results: The trend in SNIP values for the International Journal of Nursing Studies was the most stable and positive, whereas the trend in SNIP values for the Journal of Advanced Nursing was the most negative. The annual percentage change of the most recent trend line, which is the best indicator for predicting future SNIP values, was the largest for the International Journal of Nursing Studies.Conclusions: Predictions of journal metrics based on statistical joinpoint regression may not be completely accurate. Using this technique, however, a librarian can reasonably claim which journal will retain or even improve its prestige in the future and thus safely advise prospective authors on where to publish their research.

scholarly journals The Effect of Air Pollution on Fertility Intentions

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-170
Author(s):  
Yunrong Li ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
General Social Survey ◽  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Fertility Intention ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Long Period ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data

Together with fast economic growths in recent decades and subsequent environmental pollutions, fertility rates have declined dramatically in China. Considering fertility intention is an essential predictor for fertility rate, we examine the effect of air pollution on fertility intentions in China. Using data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) collected in 2010 and 2013, we find a negative and significant impact of air pollution on people’s fertility intentions. More importantly, after we restrict the sample to people who have been living in current places for a long period of time, the estimated effect of air pollution decreases but remains significant, indicating existence of endogeneity of air pollution on fertility intentions. For the government to take measures to raise fertility rates in China, it is important to take into account the factor of air pollution.

Modelling In-Patient Bed Usage Behaviour in a Department of Geriatric Medicine

1993 ◽  
Vol 32 (01) ◽  
pp. 79-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Millard ◽  
S. McClean
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Geriatric Medicine ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Bed Occupancy ◽  
Lengths Of Stay ◽  
Geriatric Hospital ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Acute Patients

Abstract:The flow of patients through geriatric hospitals has been previously described in terms of acute and long-stay states where the bed occupancy at a census point is modelled by a mixed exponential model. Using data for sixteen years the model was fitted to successive annual census points, in order to provide a description of temporal trends. While the number of acute patients has remained fairly stable during the period, the model shows that there has been a decrease in the number of long-stay patients. Mean lengths of stay in our geriatric hospital before death or discharge have decreased during the study period for both acute and long-stay patients.Using these fits of the mixed exponential model to census data, a method is provided for predicting future turnover of patients. These predictions are reasonably good, except when the turnover patterns go through a period of flux in which assumption of stability no longer holds. Overall, a methodology is presented which relates census analysis to the behaviour of admission cohorts, thus producing a means of predicting future behaviour of patients and identifying where there is a change in patterns.

Gender Ideology and Fertility: Evidence for a Curvilinear Hypothesis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serena Stefani ◽  
Gabriele Prati
Keyword(s):  
Gender Ideology ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Curvilinear Relationship ◽  
World Population ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
The World ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Using Data ◽  
National Analysis ◽  
The Relationship

Research on the relationship between fertility and gender ideology revealed inconsistent results. In the present study, we argue that inconsistencies may be due to the fact that such relationship may be nonlinear. We hypothesize a U- shaped relationship between two dimensions of gender ideology (i.e. primacy of breadwinner role and acceptance of male privilege) and fertility rates. We conducted a cross-national analysis of 60 countries using data from the World Values Survey as well as the World Population Prospects 2019. Controlling for gross domestic product, we found support for a U-shaped relationship between gender ideology and fertility. Higher levels of fertility rates were found at lower and especially higher levels of traditional gender ideology, while a medium level of gender ideology was associated with the lowest fertility rate. This curvilinear relationship is in agreement with the phase of the gender revolution in which the country is located. Traditional beliefs are linked to a complementary division of private versus public sphere between sexes, while egalitarian attitudes are associated with a more equitable division. Both conditions strengthen fertility. Instead, as in the transition phase, intermediate levels of gender ideology’s support are associated with an overload and a difficult reconciliation of the roles that women have to embody (i.e. working and nurturing) so reducing fertility. The present study has contributed to the literature by addressing the inconsistencies of prior research by demonstrating that the relationship between gender ideology and fertility rates is curvilinear rather than linear.

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