scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak in India: an early stage analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. 332
Author(s):  
Sanju Mishra Tiwari ◽  
Devottam Gaurav ◽  
Ajith Abraham
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Kerala State

<p>The COVID-19 outbreak in several countries of the world is facing a challenging task to control the virus transmission as 3.7 million people are tested positive in all over world at the time of writing. India is also suffering with the virus outbreak in different states as on January 30, 2020, India reported its first confirmed case of coronavirus deadly disease (COVID-19) in Kerala state where three students returned from the epicentre of the disease, Wuhan, China. During the first week, India experienced a slow growth in the infected cases but soon after an outbreak has been found in several states and union territories, although strict measures are being made to control the outbreak. This study presents a comprehensive analysis to explore the current status of virus transmission at state and country level, infection growth, most affected age groups, available datasets and prediction models and strict control measures. Several data sources are analysed to collect the pandemic data such as Johns Hopkins University, Ministry of Health, COVID-19 India, Worldometer and media. The analysed study will be significant for scientist, researchers and health workers of India and also for the administrative tasks to consider the different strict measure to control COVID-19.</p>

scholarly journals GLOBAL RESPIRATORY ILLNESS OUTBREAK COVID-19 AND ITS GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES: AN OVERVIEW

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chetan Chauhan ◽  
Shanta Kumari
Keyword(s):  
Health Workers ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Central China ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Outbreak Response ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Global Impact ◽  
New Public Health

Global Respiratory illness outbreak COVID-19 is a new public health crisis threatening humanity across the globe with the emergence and spread from central China in late 2019. The virus originated around Wuhan, Hubei province, China in December 2019 in bats and was transmitted through unknown intermediary sources to humans. The clinical presentation of viral infection ranges from asymptomatic to severe pneumonia with acute pulmonary distress syndrome is designated as COVID-19. WHO has characterized the disease as a pandemic due to its severity, as well as the shifting of epidemic zones across the globe from epicentre zone, China through a different stage of transmission by contact or inhalation with infected droplets and the incubation period, varies between 2 - 14 days. Treatment is essentially supportive; the effective role of antiviral agents is yet to be established and secondly without knowing the entire genome sequence of COVID- 19, no drug or vaccine can be effectively administered. Prevention entails home isolation of suspected cases and those with mild illnesses and strict infection control measures at hospitals that include contact and droplet precautions. The highest risk of healthcare-associated transmission is in the absence of standard precautions, when basic infection prevention and control measures for respiratory infections are not in place, and when handling patients where COVID infection is yet to be confirmed. The pandemic acceleration of COVID-19 indicates that the initial sporadic spreading worst hit the epicentre, China. But later on, epidemic zone shifts to nearly all continents. Several countries are experiencing sustained local transmission, including Europe and America at the end of February 2020. Current status indicates that confirmed and death cases pattern is rapidly varied among the different continents and emerged as an alarming health crisis of the nd Era in countries like Italy, Spain, U.K, Iran, and the USA. Although India is now in the 2 stage of transmission and too rd far from the 3 stage but till government has already taken deceive control measures. At the same time some of the Asian countries like South Korea, Japan has been reporting a slowdown in the growth of COVID-19 cases due to adoption concept of "Testing is central" to outbreak response that leads to early detection to minimizes further spread. The proportion of asymptomatic cases is currently unknown and hampers the realistic assessment of the virus epidemic potential and complicates the outbreak response. WHO has already announced a large global trial, called SOLIDARITY th on 27 March 2020 which is focusing on the most promising panacea therapies including remdesivir; chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine; a combination of two HIV drugs, lopinavir, and ritonavir; and that same combination plus interferon-beta. The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has already brought considerable human suffering and major economic disruption. In the current scenario, the exact global impact and extension of COVID 19 pandemic acceleration nd rd and reoccurrences of 2 and 3 waves are yet uncertain in globally. Therefore the corona pandemic is unprecedented in its global impact and reach, posing alarming challenges to policymakers, researchers and health workers.

scholarly journals Reconcile the debate over protective effects of BCG vaccine against COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Fu ◽  
Pei-Chuan Ho ◽  
Chia-Lun Liu ◽  
Kai-Teh Tzeng ◽  
Nawar Nayeem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potential Role ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Bcg Vaccine ◽  
Protective Effects ◽  
Young Population ◽  
Resource Center ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Clinical Scenarios ◽  
Program Data

AbstractWhile awaiting the COVID-19 vaccines, researchers have been actively exploring the effectiveness of existing vaccines against the new virus, among which the BCG vaccine (Bacillus Calmette-Guérin) receives the most attention. While many reports suggest a potential role for BCG immunization in ameliorating SARS-CoV-2 infection, these findings remain controversial. With country-level COVID-19 outbreak data from Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center, and BCG program data from World Atlas of BCG Policies and Practices and WHO/UNICE, we estimated a dynamic model to investigate the effect of BCG vaccination across time during the pandemic. Our results reconcile these varying reports regarding protection by BCG against COVID-19 in a variety of clinical scenarios and model specifications. We observe a notable protective effect of the BCG vaccine during the early stage of the pandemic. However, we do not see any strong evidence for protection during the later stages. We also see that a higher proportion of vaccinated young population may confer some level of communal protection against the virus in the early pandemic period, even when the proportion of vaccination in the older population is low. Our results highlight that while BCG may offer some protection against COVID-19, we should be cautious in interpreting the estimated effectiveness as it may vary over time and depend on the age structure of the vaccinated population.

scholarly journals Dating the emergence of the first case of COVID-19 with flights: a retrospective modelling study 

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liwei Yang ◽  
Jing Yan Zhu ◽  
Yihe Zhang ◽  
Wenjie Zhou ◽  
Yicheng Si
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
High Likelihood ◽  
International Transmission ◽  
Country Level ◽  
First Case ◽  
Province Level ◽  
Inter State ◽  
Modelling Study

Abstract Commercial flights contributed to the early-stage international transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Understanding the effect of international and inter-state flights on virus transmission is important to evaluate the initial response of the outbreak. This study investigated the likely date of the emergence of the first COVID-19 case. We constructed a geographical-structured epidemiology model, integrating 2541 province-level units, 250 country-level units, and 26,094,036 flight plans to evaluate the possible date of the emergence of the first case. Using the model, we estimated the number of cumulative deaths and the date of first death caused by COVID-19 in different countries. The pattern of the three parameters we evaluated suggests a high likelihood of the emergence of the first case of COVID-19 be around September 15 and September 22, 2019.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Human Mobility to Predict Regional Excess Death in Ecuador

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leticia Cuellar ◽  
Irene Torres ◽  
Ethan Obie Romero-Severson ◽  
Riya Mahesh ◽  
Nathaniel Ortega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Sharp Decrease ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

COVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and medium-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice, one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, the first date the data is available). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected. Specifically, individuals in the age groups younger than 20, we found have their death rate reduced during the pandemic between 22% and 27% of the expected deaths in the absence of COVID-19. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess death shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases the excess death and more novel, we found that an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior, increases the number of excess deaths.

Ensuring TB Services During Major Floods – Kerala, India, August 2018

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Rajeev Sadanandan ◽  
Sarita RL ◽  
Sunilkumar Mrithunjayan ◽  
Mathew J. Valamparambil ◽  
Shibu Balakrishnan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Workers ◽  
The State ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
Primary Health Care System ◽  
Tb Control ◽  
Tb Treatment ◽  
Disaster Situation ◽  
Major Floods ◽  
Kerala State

ABSTRACT Ensuring the successful treatment of tuberculosis (TB) is an essential public health responsibility of national TB programs. This case study describes how the Department of Health and Family Welfare, Kerala state, successfully prevented the disruptions in TB treatment when an unprecedented massive flood, declared as “a calamity of severe nature,” completely disrupted normal operations in the state during August 2018. Unanticipated floods led to the displacement and relocation of more than 1.5 million citizens. The state has ensured continuity of TB treatment for all notified drug sensitive and drug-resistant TB patients (9608 and 434, respectively), including those who were displaced and relocated. A real-time web-enabled, case-based patient management information system has helped preserve the entire patient information, available at multiple levels. Routine strength of the program, including good rapport with patients, frontline multipurpose health workers and treatment supporters, high literacy rate of general population, and well-integrated primary health care system delivering TB services, enabled ensuring continuity of care during the disaster situation. The success of the post-flood TB control measures in Kerala affirms the importance of maintaining an integrated and strong TB control component with general health system ownership.

scholarly journals Knowledge, attitude and practices associated with COVID-19 among undergraduate medical students of Rajasthan

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 712
Author(s):  
Riecha Joshi ◽  
Rajendra Takhar ◽  
Sanjay Jain
Keyword(s):  
Medical Students ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Undergraduate Medical Students ◽  
Future Health ◽  
Attitudes And Practices ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
The Mean ◽  
And Control

Background: COVID-19 is a pandemic that has taken over the entire world and its KAP is important for medical students in order for them to be well-versed future health workers. To evaluate the adequacy of knowledge of medical students to deal with the ongoing pandemic and their attitudes and practices towards the prevention and control of the pandemic.Methods: A KAP study was conducted in the Undergraduate Medical Students of Rajasthan. A questionnaire was sent via Google forms through social media platforms to the participants. Statistical analysis done by ANOVA, student t-test.Results: The mean ± SD scores attained for knowledge, attitude and practices were 6.63±1.447, 16.45±2.589. The scores attained by different age groups, batches, colleges and genders were comparable. The knowledge of the students in regard of main symptoms (98.8.%), mode of spread (92.53%), time taken for the manifestation of the disease (97.35%) and precautions to prevent the spread of the virus (99.02%) is satisfactory, however, regarding the type of mask WHO advices for the general people in areas of widespread transmission with limited capacity for implementing control measures (31%), whether a COVID-19 positive mother should breastfeed her new born (43%), the knowledge isn’t adequate. 86% of the students are confident about being able to take care of symptoms. 72% students are positive about working as frontline workers.Conclusions: Positive attitude and practices are seen in medical students of Rajasthan, the knowledge is adequate and they can be a vital asset to spreading awareness about COVID-19. 

COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sina Faizollahzadeh Ardabili ◽  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Pedram Ghamisi ◽  
Filip Ferdinand ◽  
Annamaria R. Varkonyi-Koczy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
High Level

Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models needs to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak as an alternative to SIR and SEIR models. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research. Paper further suggests that real novelty in outbreak prediction can be realized through integrating machine learning and SEIR models.

Green synthesis of nanomaterials for early lung cancer detection

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Green Synthesis ◽  
Cancer Detection ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Early Lung Cancer ◽  
Lung Cancer Detection ◽  
Synthesis Of Nanomaterials

Lung cancer is the foremost cause of cancer-related deaths world-wide [1]. It affects 100,000 Americans of the smoking population every year of all age groups, particularly those above 50 years of the smoking population [2]. In India, 51,000 lung cancer deaths were reported in 2012, which include 41,000 men and 10,000 women [3]. It is the leading cause of cancer deaths in men; however, in women, it ranked ninth among all cancerous deaths [4]. It is possible to detect the lung cancer at a very early stage, providing a much higher chance of survival for the patients.

Current Status of Knowledge and Awareness of Diabetes Mellitus in Saudi Arabia

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asirvatham Alwin Robert ◽  
Ahmad Dakeel Al Awad ◽  
Mohamed Abdulaziz Al Dawish
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Management Training ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Treatment Modalities ◽  
The Government

Abstract: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease, and the complications may be life-threatening; however, with proper treatment and control measures, it can be very well-managed. Self-management training and education of diabetes are critical in diabetes care and management. It is essential that patients with diabetes must have a comprehensive understanding of the nature of the disease, risk factors, complications, and possible treatment modalities to attenuate the complications. Over the last few years, DM in Saudi Arabia has been rapidly growing at an alarming rate. It has affected around one-fifth of the adult population, and by 2030, the numbers are predicted to rise further and exceed more than double the present number. An estimated tenfold increase has been reported over the past three decades in Saudi Arabia. However, there has not been much research focusing on understanding the knowledge and awareness of DM in Saudi Arabia as compared to developed nations. This review aims to present an overview of the current knowledge and awareness level of DM among the population of Saudi Arabia through an extensive review of the currently available literature. The review findings could be of immense assistance to the government, healthcare systems, educational institutions, and researchers to develop evidence-based programs, policies, and guidelines towards increasing the knowledge and awareness about diabetes and its management, so that early detection and management can be ensured to control the escalating burden of diabetes, in Saudi Arabia.

An Epidemiological Analysis of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases, Reported at National Institute of Health, Pakistan (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambreen Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Bivariate Analysis ◽  
Travel History ◽  
Disease Epidemiology ◽  
Hygiene Practices ◽  
Multi Center Study ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) is a zoonotic disease of novel origin that posed a continuous threat to health worldwide after taking the shape of the pandemic. An understanding of disease epidemiology is supportive in timely preventive and control measures as well as contact tracing and curbing surveillance activities. OBJECTIVE The objective of our study was to determine the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 confirmed cases reported at the National Institute of Health Pakistan and elements of its spread in Pakistan. METHODS A retrospective record review was conducted at the National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad, Pakistan from January 25 to April 4, 2020. Univariate and bivariate analysis was done with 95% CI and p<0.05. RESULTS A total of 14,422 samples of suspected COVID-19 cases were received with a positivity rate of 9% (n=1348). Among all 70% (n=939) were male. The median age was 41years of age (range: 01-99Years). Among all, 19% were from 30-39 years old followed by 50-59 years old (17%). Children remained the least affected by 3% (n=35). Of the total reported cases, 55% (n=735) have reported the travel history within the last 14 days. Among these travelers’ international travelers were 23% (n=166) and domestic travelers were 77% (n=569). Travel history including both international and domestic remained significantly associated with the different age groups and Young adults remained more vulnerable to COVID-19 (P=0.03). Fever, SOB, and Cough remained the most significantly associated (P<0.05) in all age groups. CONCLUSIONS A higher incidence of COVID-19 among elderly men suggests robust quarantine measures for this target population. An escalating incidence of local transmission needs strict social distancing and hygiene practices to help flatten the curve. An extensive multi-center study is also recommended for a full understanding of disease dynamics.

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