scholarly journals Dampak Kebijakan Domestik terhadap Ketersediaan Jagung untuk Bahan Baku Industri Pengolahan di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Veralianta Br Sebayang ◽  
Bonar Marulitua Sinaga ◽  
NFN Harianto ◽  
I Ketut Kariyasa
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Consumption Pattern ◽  
Processing Industry ◽  
Domestic Production ◽  
Simultaneous Equation System ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
The Impact

<strong>English</strong><br />Maize is a strategic commodity for Indonesia. In line with the consumption pattern, the domestic demand for maize has changed from previously dominated by household consumption to presently dominated by raw material for feed and food processing industries. The maize demand of the processing industry increases rapidly, outpaced   domestic production growth, that makes Indonesia must import maize in an increasing amount. This study aims to determine the impact of government policy on maize production which is the input of the maize processing industry. The analysis was conducted using an econometric simultaneous equation system model which was estimated with the two stages least squares technique using time series data of 1985-2017. The results show that the maize harvest area is negatively related with labor wage and urea price, and is positively related with the maize farm price. Maize productivity is positively related with quantity of urea fertilizer and hybrid seeds. but negatively related with composite seeds. The scenario of subsidizing urea prices and hybrid seed, raising import tariffs can increase the availability maize for processing industries as indicated by increasing domestic production and decreasing maize imports.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Jagung termasuk komoditas strategis untuk Indonesia. Seiring dengan perubahan pola konsumsi, permintaan jagung dalam negeri berubah dari sebelumnya didominasi oleh konsumsi rumah tangga menjadi kini didominasi oleh bahan baku industri pengolahan pakan dan pangan.  Kebutuhan jagung untuk bahan baku industri pengolahan meningkat pesat, bahkan melampaui peningkatan produksi jagung dalam negeri, sehingga Indonesia terpaksa mengimpor jagung dalam jumlah yang terus meningkat. Penelitian bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak kebijakan pemerintah terhadap produksi jagung yang menjadi input industri pengolahan jagung. Metode analisis yang digunakan ialah model ekonometrika sistem persamaan simultan yang diduga dengan teknik two stages least squares memakai data deret waktu 1985-2017. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa luas areal panen jagung berhubungan negatif dengan upah buruh tani dan harga pupuk urea, sebaliknya, berhubungan positif terhadap harga jagung di tingkat petani. Produktivitas jagung berhubungan positif dengan volume penggunaan pupuk urea dan benih hibrida, namun berhubungan negatif dengan benih komposit. Skenario kebijakan subsidi harga pupuk urea, subsidi harga benih hibrida, dan kenaikan tarif impor dapat meningkatkan ketersediaan bahan baku industri pengolahan dan peternak mandiri sebagaimana ditunjukkan oleh kenaikan produksi dalam negeri dan penurunan impor jagung.

THE INDONESIAN AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCES UNDER CHINA-ASEAN FREE TRADE AREA: GO UP OR GO DOWN? Case of Agriculture Raw Material and Food Product

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasrudin Nasrudin ◽  
Budiyanto Budiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Food Product ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

As an agricultural country, the Indonesian agricultural sector should obtain a positive impact of the regional economic integration. Since in 2004 by the Early Harvest Program (EHP) of China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), most agricultural commodities have lowered tariff, indeed some have been zero percent.Unfortunately, the performance of the agricultural sector has not shown tangible improvement. Then beforethe rates was released for all commodities, should be evaluated and re-defined policies that should be taken. This paper purposesto examine the impact of the implementation of CAFTA on the Indonesian agricultural performances. The objectives will be achieved by compare the performance preand post-CAFTA; predict the performance if CAFTA is fully implemented, by performing simulations and econometric models. By using time series data 1990-2011, agriculture can be divided into two categories; agricultural raw materials and food products. The estimation result of econometric modeling by simultaneous equations, the Indonesian agricultural sector performance after CAFTA is not better than before implementation. Predicted will decrease when the entire rates later free. Keywords: agriculture raw material; foods product; agriculture performance; economic integration

scholarly journals IMPACT OF IMPORT TARIFF POLICIES ON RICE DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-67
Author(s):  
Akhmad Pide
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Purchase Price ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Import Tariff ◽  
Simultaneous Equation System ◽  
Government Purchase ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia’s economic policies cannot be separated to its rice policies since rice is the staple food for Indonesian people. The paper aims to find out the impact of rice import tariff policies on rice demand and supply in Indonesia. The research uses time series data in 1981-2018. Data obtained are analyzed using econometric model with simultaneous equation system. Estimation results show that rice supply was positively and significantly influenced by grain rice price in farmer level, amount of rice production, and rice supply of the previous year. Meantime, domestic rice demand was negatively and significantly influenced by domestic rice price and positively and significantly influenced by domestic rice demand of the previous year. The result of policy simulation indicates that scenario of policy combination through an increase in rice import tariff and government purchase price brings a sizeable impact on the increase in domestic rice production and rice demand and supply. Therefore, Indonesia needs to conduct protection to farmers in the form of rice import tariff imposition as well as government purchase price.

scholarly journals Dampak Kebijakan Harga Pembelian Petani Gabah terhadap Kesejahteraan Petani: Suatu Simulasi

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-142
Author(s):  
Eka Intan Kumala Putri ◽  
Novindra Novindra ◽  
Nuva Nuva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Purchases ◽  
Real Price ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Purchasing Policy

To control supply and demand rice and increase income to farmer, Government assigned a rice purchasing policy. This study apply 2SLS model with time series data 1971--2009 to simulate and forecast the impact of rice purchasing policy on farmer welfare. The responses of rice real price at farmers' level towards the changes of real price of government purchases and rice production is elastic in the long term. Demand of rice is signicantly in uenced by the price of rice, population, and demand for rice at t-1. The increasing of rice purchasing price (HPP) on grain at 9.54% and 15% lead to an increasing of farmer's surplus IDR163,512,308,700 and IDR257,292,128,790.AbstrakGuna mengontrol keseimbangan konsumsi beras dengan produksi padi dan meningkatkan pendapatan petani, pemerintah Indonesia menetapkan kebijakan Harga Pembelian Padi (HPP). Studi ini melihat dampak kebijakan HPP terhadap kesejahteraan petani dilakukan melalui simulasi peramalan dengan Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) data time series periode 1971--2009. Secara ekonomi, respons harga riil gabah petani terhadap perubahan HPP dan produksi padi bersifat elastis dalam jangka panjang. Permintaan beras dipengaruhi harga beras, jumlah penduduk, dan permintaan beras t-1. Simulasi peramalan terhadap peningkatan HPP gabah 9,54% dan 15% menyebabkan surplus petani meningkat masing-masing Rp163.512.308.700,- dan Rp257.292.128.790,-.

scholarly journals Dampak Kebijakan Perberasan pada Pasar Beras dan Kesejahteraan Produsen dan Konsumen Beras di Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-100
Author(s):  
Edy Siswanto ◽  
Bonar Marulitua Sinaga ◽  
. Harianto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Agricultural Credit ◽  
Rice Market ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Rice Policy ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
The Impact

Rice demand in Indonesia increases every year so it makes the big gap between production and consumption of rice. Excess demand is covered by rice import which causes domestic rice price responds the global rice price movements that harm both producers and consumers. So, the policy instruments that could reduce dependence on rice import and can provide benefits to producers and consumers of rice is very needed. The objectives of this study were to analyze the impact of rice policy on rice market and the welfare of rice producers and consumers. This study uses annual time series data and simultaneous equations model with two stages least squares method. The analysis showed that rice policy changes can influence condition of Indonesia’s rice market and that the increase in Government Purchase Price (HPP), agricultural credit, and fertilizer subsidy can improve the welfare of the producers and consumers.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Transport infrastructure of the Rostov Oblast: Problems and prospects for development in the context of national projects implementation

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1015-1034
Author(s):  
O.Yu. Patrakeeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Rostov Oblast ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The paper considers national projects in the field of transport infrastructure, i.e. Safe and High-quality Roads and Comprehensive Plan for Modernization and Expansion of Trunk Infrastructure, and the specifics of their implementation in the Rostov Oblast. Objectives. The aim is to conduct a statistical assessment of the impact of transport infrastructure on the region’s economic performance and define prospects for and risks of the implementation of national infrastructure projects in conditions of a shrinking economy. Methods. I use available statistics and apply methods and approaches with time-series data, namely stationarity and cointegration tests, vector autoregression models. Results. The level of economic development has an impact on transport infrastructure in the short run. However, the mutual influence has not been statistically confirmed. The paper revealed that investments in the sphere of transport reduce risk of accidents on the roads of the Rostov Oblast. Improving the quality of roads with high traffic flow by reducing investments in the maintenance of subsidiary roads enables to decrease accident rate on the whole. Conclusions. In conditions of economy shrinking caused by the complex epidemiological situation and measures aimed at minimizing the spread of coronavirus, it is crucial to create a solid foundation for further economic recovery. At the government level, it is decided to continue implementing national projects as significant tools for recovery growth.

A Macroeconomic Analysis of Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-25
Author(s):  
Isah Funtua Abubakar ◽  
Umar Bambale Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Size Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to study the Nigerian agriculture industry as a panacea to growth as well as an anchor to the diversification agenda of the present government. To do this, the time series data of the four agriculture subsectors of crop production, livestock, forestry and fishery were analysed as stimulus to the Real GDP from 1981-2016 in order to explicate the individual contributions of the subsectors to the RGDP in order to guide the policy thrust on diversification. Using the Johansen approach to cointegration, all the variables were found to be cointegrated. With the exception of the forestry subsector, all the three subsectors were seen to have impacted on the real GDP at varying degrees during the time under review. The crop production subsector has the highest impact, however, taking size-by-size analysis, the livestock subsector could be of much importance due to its ability to retain its value chain and high investment returns particularly in poultry. Therefore, it is recommended that, the government should intensify efforts to retain the value chain in the crop production subsector, in order to harness its potentials optimally through the encouragement of the establishment of agriculture cottage industries. Secondly, the livestock subsector is found to be the most rapidly growing and commercialized subsector. Therefore, it should be the prime subsector to hinge the diversification agenda naturally. Lastly, the tourism industry which is a source through which the impact of the subsector is channeled to the GDP should be developed, in order to improve the impact of such channel to GDP with the sole objective to resuscitate the forestry subsector.

The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 730-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of oil price changes on output and inflation for the case of Turkey using monthly time series data for the period 1990:1–2012:3. Recent studies suggest that oil price changes may have asymmetric effects on the macroeconomic variables. To account for asymmetric effects, we decompose oil price changes into positive and negative parts following Hamilton (1996). Our results show that while oil price increases have clear negative effects on output growth, the impact of oil price decline is insignificant. Similarly, oil price increases have positive and significant effects on inflation. However, oil price declines have not a significant effect on inflation. The Granger causality tests also support these results.

Does Tax Increment Financing Pass the “But-for” Test in Missouri?

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 187-202
Author(s):  
Ahmed Rachid El-Khattabi ◽  
T. William Lester
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Kansas City ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Increment Financing ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The use of tax increment financing (TIF) remains a popular, yet highly controversial, tool among policy makers in their efforts to promote economic development. This study conducts a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of Missouri’s TIF program, specifically in Kansas City and St. Louis, in creating economic opportunities. We build a time-series data set starting 1990 through 2012 of detailed employment levels, establishment counts, and sales at the census block-group level to run a set of difference-in-differences with matching estimates for the impact of TIF at the local level. Although we analyze the impact of TIF on a wide set of indicators and across various industry sectors, we find no conclusive evidence that the TIF program in either city has a causal impact on key economic development indicators.

EFFECTS OF TREND AND PERIODICITY ON THE CORRELATION DIMENSION AND THE LYAPUNOV EXPONENTS

2008 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 3679-3687 ◽  
Author(s):  
AYDIN A. CECEN ◽  
CAHIT ERKAL
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Lyapunov Exponents ◽  
Correlation Dimension ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Logistic Map ◽  
Model Identification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Largest Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
The Impact

We present a critical remark on the pitfalls of calculating the correlation dimension and the largest Lyapunov exponent from time series data when trend and periodicity exist. We consider a special case where a time series Zi can be expressed as the sum of two subsystems so that Zi = Xi + Yi and at least one of the subsystems is deterministic. We show that if the trend and periodicity are not properly removed, correlation dimension and Lyapunov exponent estimations yield misleading results, which can severely compromise the results of diagnostic tests and model identification. We also establish an analytic relationship between the largest Lyapunov exponents of the subsystems and that of the whole system. In addition, the impact of a periodic parameter perturbation on the Lyapunov exponent for the logistic map and the Lorenz system is discussed.

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