A systems-based approach to forecasting gross regional product using the inter-industry balance model

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 1602-1614
Author(s):  
G.N. Okhlopkov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product

Subject. This article explores the issues related to the system of indicators of forecasting of gross regional product and their relationship. Objectives. The article aims to justify the appropriateness of using a systems-based approach when forecasting gross regional product, based on the inter-industry balance model. Methods. For the study, I used the techniques of mathematical modeling in economics. To verify the accuracy of the forecast calculations, retrospective forecasts of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2017–2018 were carried out. Results. The article presents a developed classification of significant types of economic activity to forecast gross regional product. Conclusions. The use of a systems-based approach in the forecast calculations of gross regional product using the inter-industry balance model provides adequate forecast results.

scholarly journals Smart specialization for the development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Republic of Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-120
Author(s):  
R. V. Zarubin ◽  
◽  
M. Y. Zarubin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Smart Specialization ◽  
Classification Of Regions ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Key Indicators ◽  
Further Development

The article deals with the development of small and medium-sized businesses, taking into account the concept of smart specialization. The article presents a combination of data from the “quad spiral”, aimed at the formation and intensification of network interactions of business-state-science-civil society components for the creation of evolutionary, “smart”, sustainable entrepreneurship, growth of the economy of regions and the country as a whole. The analysis and classification of regions by the level of production of the gross regional product is carried out, the set of specialization is defined. The monitoring of targets for achieving key indicators of innovative development of the country was carried out. The sequence of work with smart specialization is presented. Conclusions are drawn on the further development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Applying projections of gross regional product to determine the possible extent of economic damage under various case scenarios of the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 1771-1786
Author(s):  
G.N. Okhlopkov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Scenario Projections

Subject. This article explores the issues related to the system of indicators of forecasting of gross regional product and their relationship. Objectives. The article aims to obtain projections of the extent of economic damage of the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy in various case scenarios, based on scenario projections of gross regional product. Methods. For the study, I used the techniques of mathematical modeling in economics. Results. The article presents forecast estimates of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2018–2020 by an inertial scenario and the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy in various case scenarios for 2020, as well as the extent of possible economic damage. Conclusions. The methodological approach developed helps provide adequate projections of possible economic damage of the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy in various case scenarios.

The influence of the growth rate of intergovernmental transfers on the growth rate of the gross regional product on the example of the Republic of Dagestan

2020 ◽  
pp. 103-110
Author(s):  
Д.Д. Селимова
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Intergovernmental Transfers ◽  
Correlation Dependence ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product

В статье представлена корреляционная зависимость между результатами экономической деятельности и темпами роста межбюджетных трансфертов в отдельно взятом регионе. Раскрывается динамика роста трансфертов и ее влияние на темпы роста валового регионального продукта. Материалом для анализа послужили показатели Республики Дагестан за период 2009-2019 гг. На основе анализа делается вывод о наличии тесной связи между данными показателями и определяется теснота корреляции. Отмечается позитивное влияние межбюджетных трансфертов на региональное развитие. The article presents the correlation dependence between the results of economic activity and the growth rate of intergovernmental transfers in a particular region. The dynamics of the growth of transfers and its influence on the growth rates of the gross regional product are revealed. The material for the analysis was the indicators of the Republic of Dagestan for the period 2009-2019. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that there is a close relationship between these indicators and the tightness of the correlation is determined. The positive influence of interbudgetary transfers on regional development is noted.

Forecast estimates of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2020–2025, taking into account the coronavirus pandemic impact

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 339-359
Author(s):  
Gavril N. OKHLOPKOV
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product

Subject. This article deals with the system of indicators of forecasting gross regional product and their relationship. Objectives. The article aims to obtain projections of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2020–2025. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of mathematical modeling in economics. Results. The article calculates and conducts a comparative analysis of the scenario forecast estimates of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2020–2025. Conclusions. The developed methodological approach, based on a phased prediction of gross regional product, provides forecasting for various variants of the coronavirus pandemic impact on the region's economy.

scholarly journals Investment attractiveness of Republic of Crimea and its assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 113-121
Author(s):  
I. N. Primyshev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Strategic Development ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product

In the article, the author calculated the value of the investment attractiveness index for the subjects of the Russian Federation that are part of the southern Federal district. A SWOT analysis of the investment attractiveness of the Republic of Crimea is conducted. Measures aimed at implementing the investment development of the Republic of Crimea are proposed. The analysis of the structure of the gross regional product by type of economic activity is carried out. It is revealed that the largest share in the structure of the regional economy falls on the industrial complex of the Republic of Crimea. The main tasks and measures for the strategic development of the industrial complex of the Republic of Crimea are defined. Assessing the investment attractiveness of the region is of interest to authorities, investors and local business communities

scholarly journals Innovative potential of Akmola region: problems and prospects of effective development

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (78) ◽  
pp. 137-142
Author(s):  
G. A. AKZHANOVA ◽  
◽  
G. A. SHMARLOUSKAYA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Innovation Activity ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Regional Innovation ◽  
Innovation Potential ◽  
Current State ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Innovative Potential ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Effective Development ◽  
Regional Product

The article considers the terms “innovation potential”, “regional innovation potential”, and the state of innovation potential. The purpose of this article is to determine the current state and prospects for the development of the innovative potential of the Akmola region. The research methodology consists in systematization of innovative indicators of the region by comparison and economic and statistical groupings. The analysis of the formation of the innovative potential of the region on the example of the Northern regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan is carried out. In particular, the dynamics of the gross regional product and innovation activity in the Akmola region is presented.

scholarly journals Alternative factor analysis of the science intensity of the invested capital in the Baikal region

2018 ◽  
Vol 212 ◽  
pp. 08015
Author(s):  
Evgeny Filatov
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Baikal Region ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Scientific Center ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Science Intensity

Factor analysis is the basic tool when conducting a comprehensive analysis of economic activity. In the factor analysis, the major attention is given to the research of internal reasons that form the specificity of the phenomenon under study and identification of generalized factors standing behind relevant specific indicators. The article deals with the analysis of the science intensity of the invested capital in the Baikal region of the Russian Federation. Science intensity is an important parameter for determining the efficiency of the economic activity. The author introduced into scientific circulation the following indicators: the science intensity of the invested capital, the science intensity of the gross regional product and the investment return of the gross regional product. The paper reveals the influence of factors affecting the change in the science intensity of the invested capital in the Baikal region of the Russian Federation, and provides methodological approaches to its calculation. The article presents the author’s analytical and systematized statistical material for the analysis of the key indicators revealing the impact of the invested capital in the Baikal region of the Russian Federation on the change of the science intensity. The research has been carried out in the framework of the scientific project of the Irkutsk Scientific Center of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences No. XI.174.1.4 “Activation of the internal development potential of regions of the resource specialization (on the example of the Baikal region)”.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF SAMARA REGION TAX POTENTIAL BASED ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-18
Author(s):  
V. Y. Anisimova ◽  
D. V. Yudakhina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Regional Product

The article is devoted to the analysis of Samara region tax potential in the context of the main types of economic activity. The analysis is based on one of the methods for tax potential assessment - a simple method based on the gross regional product. The analysis of tax revenues and tax liabilities related to the main types of economic activity was carried out.

FEATURES OF INDUSTRY-SPECIFIC TAXATION IN THE CHUVASH REPUBLIC

2020 ◽  
pp. 7-14
Author(s):  
Tatyana Yu. Vasileva
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Tax Burden ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Sectoral Structure ◽  
Chuvash Republic ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Tax Payments ◽  
Regional Product

The question of balanced redistribution of tax revenues generated in the territory of a subject of the Russian Federation is becoming more urgent. Their value depends largely on the tax burden on the regional economy, which in turn is determined not only by the system of taxes and fees currently in force, but by the sectoral structure of the economy as well. It is against this background that the peculiarities of sectoral taxation are studied on the example of such a subsidized subject of the Russian Federation as the Chuvash Republic, which is the purpose of the study. Such research methods as analytical, comparative methods of study, the grouping method, graphic images are applied. The dynamics and structure of tax revenues and gross regional product based on types of economic activity are examined and compared. It is revealed that the first place in terms of the share in the gross regional product in the Chuvash Republic is taken by manufacturing, the second place falls on trade, the third – to agriculture. At the same time in 2018–2019, manufacturing enterprises provided 47% of all tax payments of the Chuvash Republic, the second most important was trade activity (12.7% of all payments in 2019), construction accounted for 7.3% of all tax payments. Due to the fact that the tax burden on the regional economy is a criterion for assessing the impact of taxation on the socio-economic development of the region taking into account the regional tax policy and its sectoral structure, the authors present calculation of the level of actual tax burden as the ratio of mobilized tax payments to gross regional product by major types of economic activities in the Chuvash Republic. As the calculations showed, activities such as manufacturing, mining and construction bear a significant tax burden. Agriculture provided only 0.4% of received tax payments in general for Chuvashia for all activities and carries the lowest tax burden due to the peculiarities of taxation in this industry. Thus, the tax burden is extremely unevenly distributed by the types of economic activity.

scholarly journals To the Question of Determining the Budget-Forming Industry

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyudmila Kolbyagina ◽  
Anna Kireenko
Keyword(s):  
Standard Method ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Empirical Base ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Tax Legislation ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Regional Budgets

The article is devoted to the identification of the criterion, that allows to determine which industry can be referred to as a budget-forming one at the regional level. The empirical base of the study was formed by the data of Russian Federal State Statistics Service about the structure of gross regional product and by the data from the Federal Tax Service about the structure of tax revenues of the regional consolidated budgets by the type of the economic activity in 2017. The grouping of regions by the types of the economic activity is carried out using the standard method of multifactorial ranking. The structure of the gross regional product is revealed to be significantly different from the structure of the tax revenues of the regional budgets. It is proposed to define an industry as the budget-forming one if tax revenues from it form at least 15 % of the consolidated budget of the region. The application of this criterion shows that «Manufacturing» is the budget-forming industry in most of the regions. The offered criterion can be used to adjust the tax control directions and analyze the indicators of tax crime, it can help assess the consequences of tax legislation changes for the regional budgets.

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