Applying projections of gross regional product to determine the possible extent of economic damage under various case scenarios of the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 1771-1786
Author(s):  
G.N. Okhlopkov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Scenario Projections

Subject. This article explores the issues related to the system of indicators of forecasting of gross regional product and their relationship. Objectives. The article aims to obtain projections of the extent of economic damage of the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy in various case scenarios, based on scenario projections of gross regional product. Methods. For the study, I used the techniques of mathematical modeling in economics. Results. The article presents forecast estimates of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2018–2020 by an inertial scenario and the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy in various case scenarios for 2020, as well as the extent of possible economic damage. Conclusions. The methodological approach developed helps provide adequate projections of possible economic damage of the coronavirus epidemic impact on the region's economy in various case scenarios.

Forecast estimates of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2020–2025, taking into account the coronavirus pandemic impact

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 339-359
Author(s):  
Gavril N. OKHLOPKOV
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product

Subject. This article deals with the system of indicators of forecasting gross regional product and their relationship. Objectives. The article aims to obtain projections of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2020–2025. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of mathematical modeling in economics. Results. The article calculates and conducts a comparative analysis of the scenario forecast estimates of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2020–2025. Conclusions. The developed methodological approach, based on a phased prediction of gross regional product, provides forecasting for various variants of the coronavirus pandemic impact on the region's economy.

A systems-based approach to forecasting gross regional product using the inter-industry balance model

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 1602-1614
Author(s):  
G.N. Okhlopkov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product

Subject. This article explores the issues related to the system of indicators of forecasting of gross regional product and their relationship. Objectives. The article aims to justify the appropriateness of using a systems-based approach when forecasting gross regional product, based on the inter-industry balance model. Methods. For the study, I used the techniques of mathematical modeling in economics. To verify the accuracy of the forecast calculations, retrospective forecasts of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2017–2018 were carried out. Results. The article presents a developed classification of significant types of economic activity to forecast gross regional product. Conclusions. The use of a systems-based approach in the forecast calculations of gross regional product using the inter-industry balance model provides adequate forecast results.

scholarly journals Innovative potential of Akmola region: problems and prospects of effective development

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (78) ◽  
pp. 137-142
Author(s):  
G. A. AKZHANOVA ◽  
◽  
G. A. SHMARLOUSKAYA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Innovation Activity ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Regional Innovation ◽  
Innovation Potential ◽  
Current State ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Innovative Potential ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Effective Development ◽  
Regional Product

The article considers the terms “innovation potential”, “regional innovation potential”, and the state of innovation potential. The purpose of this article is to determine the current state and prospects for the development of the innovative potential of the Akmola region. The research methodology consists in systematization of innovative indicators of the region by comparison and economic and statistical groupings. The analysis of the formation of the innovative potential of the region on the example of the Northern regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan is carried out. In particular, the dynamics of the gross regional product and innovation activity in the Akmola region is presented.

scholarly journals Scenario modelling of the impact of the dynamics of public debt on the gross regional product of Russian regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 68-84
Author(s):  
I. V. Naumov ◽  
N. L. Nikulina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Regional Product

The subject of this research is public debt and its impact on the dynamics of the gross regional product (GRP) of Russian regions. The aim of the paper is to study and scenario forecast the dynamics of changes in the internal public debt of Russian regions and model its impact on the gross regional product. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that most regions in Russia are forced to increase their internal public debt to cover the budget deficit and attract additional resources to solve important problems of socio-economic development and implement strategic projects and programs. The scientific novelty of the research consists in the development of a methodological approach to modelling and scenario forecasting of the level of GRP of different groups of regions, taking into account the dynamics of changes in their public debt using ARIMA modelling methods and panel regression analysis. The authors apply the methods of panel regression analysis and ARIMA modelling. The authors theoretically substantiated that public debt has a different effect on the GRP of Russian regions, grouped the regions according to the identified trends in the dynamics of public debt (the first group — regions with the dynamics of debt reduction over the period from 2005 to 2019, the second group — with the all-Russian trend of debt reduction since 2017, and the third group — with the dynamics of increasing debt over the period under review); developed a methodological approach to modelling and scenario forecasting of the GRP level of the Russian regions, taking into account the dynamics of changes in their public debt; carried out ARIMA forecasting of the dynamics of the public debt of different groups of regions and built regression models of the influence of the dynamics of the public debt on the GRP of Russian regions within the selected groups; formed forecast scenarios for changes of the GRP level of regions, taking into account the identified dynamics of transformation of their internal public debt. Conclusions: public debt has a negative impact on the dynamics of the GRP of Moscow and the Moscow region and a positive effect on the dynamics of the GRP of the regions of the second and third groups. The findings of the study may be used by the federal and regional executive authorities to find ways to reduce public debt and increase the level of socio-economic development of territories.

scholarly journals Smart specialization for the development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Republic of Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-120
Author(s):  
R. V. Zarubin ◽  
◽  
M. Y. Zarubin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Smart Specialization ◽  
Classification Of Regions ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Key Indicators ◽  
Further Development

The article deals with the development of small and medium-sized businesses, taking into account the concept of smart specialization. The article presents a combination of data from the “quad spiral”, aimed at the formation and intensification of network interactions of business-state-science-civil society components for the creation of evolutionary, “smart”, sustainable entrepreneurship, growth of the economy of regions and the country as a whole. The analysis and classification of regions by the level of production of the gross regional product is carried out, the set of specialization is defined. The monitoring of targets for achieving key indicators of innovative development of the country was carried out. The sequence of work with smart specialization is presented. Conclusions are drawn on the further development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Republic of Kazakhstan.

scholarly journals 3.2. ISSUES OF CONSISTENCY OF FORECASTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE REPUBLIC OF BASHKORTOSTAN)

2021 ◽  
pp. 42-47
Author(s):  
М.М. Низамутдинов ◽  
В.В. Орешников ◽  
А.Р. Атнабаева
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product

Статья посвящена вопросам прогнозирования развития субъектов Российской Федерации. Рассмотрен прогноз динамики валового регионального продукта Республики Башкортостан на средне- и долгосрочную перспективы, а также ряд взаимосвязанных параметров. Проведен анализ показателей в текущих и сопоставимых ценах, их динамики и соотношения. Выявлен ряд противоречий, указывающих на наличие рассогласованности представленных значений. Раскрыты отдельные противоречия другим документам стратегического планирования. Результаты могут быть использованы для повышения эффективности управления региональным развитием. The article is devoted to the issues of forecasting the development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The forecast of the dynamics of the gross regional product of the Republic of Bashkortostan for the medium - and long-term prospects, as well as a number of interrelated parameters, is considered. The analysis of indicators in current and comparable prices, their dynamics and correlation is carried out. A number of contradictions are revealed, indicating the presence of inconsistency of the presented values. Some contradictions with other strategic planning documents are revealed. The results can be used to improve the efficiency of regional development management.

scholarly journals Modeling the innovative development of the economy based on the investment demand prognosis

2021 ◽  
Vol 274 ◽  
pp. 05010
Author(s):  
Rufina Ivanova ◽  
Dilyara Mukhametzyanova ◽  
Olga Belay ◽  
Rustem Sirazetdinov ◽  
Ella Biktemirova
Keyword(s):  
Raw Material ◽  
Innovation Activity ◽  
Material Base ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Investment In Fixed Assets ◽  
Investment Process

The effectiveness of innovation activity is largely determined by the relevant infrastructure which is the basic component of a developed economy. The correlation between the development of the innovative economy and the intensification of investment activity is revealed. On the basis of retrospective analysis of trends and patterns in the development of investment activity, an assessment of the resource support of the investment process in the Republic of Tatarstan is carried out. The need for advanced development of the production potential of the investment and construction complex of the region and the material and technical base on the basis of the development of the local raw material base is justified. An economic and mathematical model of the interaction of investment recourses that determine the level of innovative development of the region is proposed. On the basis of the theory of factor models, the quantitative relationships between the factors that have the greatest impact on investment development are investigated. They are: gross regional product, investment in fixed assets, the volume of contract work, the volume of investment in housing construction, the cost of research and development in the gross regional product, the share of innovation costs in industrial investment.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF FACTORS OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rezeda M. Kundakchyan ◽  
Tina M. Vakhitova ◽  
Landysh A. Gadelshina ◽  
Liliya F. Garifova ◽  
Liliya F. Zulfakarova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Qualitative Change ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Economic Interpretation ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Investment Resource ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product

The problem of economic growth has always been central to the discussions not only of professional economists, but also of politicians and public figures. This issue is of particular urgency for Russia in the period of geopolitical turbulence, which is strengthened by the tendencies of protectionism in international trade. In addition, there is a different dynamics of economic growth, its quality, both in the sectoral and regional sections. In this regard, the analysis of the influence of the main factors contributing to economic growth, qualitative change in the structure of gross domestic product (GDP), gross regional product (GRP), has a significant applied value. Priorities of innovative quality of growth that require large-scale investments are stated in Strategy-2020 and in “Strategy of Social and Economic Development of the Republic of Tatarstan until 2030”.Without assessing the role of the investment resource, it is impossible to determine the strategies for the country's social and economic development, to develop and implement general state, sectoral and regional programs. One approach that makes it possible to quantify the degree of influence of such key factors of economic growth as investments and incomes of the population, including the average monthly wage, is based on the use of econometric models and economic interpretation of the coefficients of the models obtained

scholarly journals Factor Analysis of Investment Development: the Vitebsk Region of the Republic of Belarus

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-142
Author(s):  
Ирина Русак ◽  
Iryna Rusak ◽  
Виктория Борисевич ◽  
Victoria Borisevich ◽  
Екатерина Кравчук ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Social Sphere ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Local Problems ◽  
Economic State ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Market Relations

The Republic of Belarus is currently moving on to market relations in pursuit of sustainable development. The level and prospects of regional development, as well as various local problems, directly affect the state of the country’s economy. The research features the socio-economic state of one of the regions of the Republic of Belarus in comparison with other entities. The paper describes a factor analysis of the investment development in the region. The authors analyzed the investment potential of the Vitebsk region, assessed its social and economic development, conducted a multidimensional comparative analysis to characterize its economic and social sphere, and rated its districts. The paper introduces a regression model of the effect of investment on the gross regional product and a map of "points" of social and economic development of the districts, together with possible directions of investment development.

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