scholarly journals PEMODELAN MULTIVARIATE KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA KE INDONESIA MELALUI PINTU UDARA, LAUT, DAN DARAT YANG MELIBATKAN DAMPAK WABAH COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 467-478
Author(s):  
Muktar Redy Susila
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
Tourism Sector

Abstrak Salah satu penyumbang pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia adalah sektor pariwisata. Menurut asalnya wisatawan dibagi menjadi dua yaitu wisatawan lokal dan mancanegara. Kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Indonesia mengalami fluktuaktif setiap bulannya. Menurut kedatangannya, wisatawan mancanegara yang masuk ke Indonesia melalui jalur udara, laut, dan darat. COVID-19 memberikan dampak terhadap sektor pariwisata. Diduga bahwa COVID-19 mempengaruhi terhadap kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara. Tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu memodelkan kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Indonesia melalui pintu udara, laut, dan darat dengan melibatkan dampak wabah COVID-19. Model yang digunakan pada penelitian ini yaitu Vector Autoregressive input X (VARX). Hasil dari penelitian ini diperoleh bahwa model yang sesuai yaitu VARX (1,2,5,7). Pemilihan model berdasarkan nilai RMSE in sample paling kecil. Nilai RMSE untuk model kunjungan wisatawan melalui pintu udara yaitu sebesar 72,217, pintu laut sebesar 0,175, dan pintu darat sebesar 0,092. Kata Kunci : Wisatawan, Mancanegara, COVID-19, VARX.   Abstract The tourism sector is one sector of Indonesian economic growth contributor. Tourists are divided into two, namely local and foreign tourists. The number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia has fluctuated every month. Foreign tourists coming to Indonesia by air, sea and land. COVID-19 has an impact on the tourism sector. It is suspected that COVID-19 affects the arrival of foreign tourists. This study examines the modelling of foreign tourist arrivals number to Indonesia by air, sea and land involving the COVID-19 impact. The model used in this study is Vector Autoregressive input X (VARX). The results of this study indicate that the appropriate model is VARX (1,2,5,7). The RMSE in sample is used to determine the appropriate model. The RMSE value for the model of tourist visits through the air gate is 72.217, the sea gate is 0.175, and the land gate is 0.092. Keywords: Tourists, Foreign, COVID-19, VARX.

scholarly journals Examining the connection among national tourism expenditure and economic growth in Algeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Salah Eddine Sari Hassoun ◽  
Khayereddine Salim Adda ◽  
Asma Hadjira Sebbane
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Natural Logarithm ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Tourism Expenditure

AbstractTourism is one of the most important sectors for several researchers and decision makers, due to its influence on the world economic growth in the twenty-first century, making it as a source of competition between countries to a global industry for its effective strategic role in the development of countries. In this paper, we used two variables natural logarithm of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and natural logarithm of per capita international and national tourism expenditure (ITE) to study the relationship between the tourism sector and economic growth in Algeria over the period of 1995–2017. We established with the unit root test with and without breakpoint that the variables are stationary in the first difference and there is a structural break in (ITE) and (GDP). Thus, with the presence of a breakpoint, we employed the methodology of Gregory–Hansen to avoid such issue, but we found that there was no evidence of cointegration with breakpoint, so then we used the vector autoregressive model (VAR). The model showed that the tourism sector has a positive and insignificant coefficient on the economic growth, while the economic growth factor has a positive and significant on the tourism sector. In the short run, there was a one-way causality from GDP to ITE at the level of 1%, confirming the economic-driven tourism growth hypothesis. Also, we found with Breitung and Candelon causality that there was same causality at the level of 10%.

scholarly journals KAUSALITAS KONTRIBUSI INDUSTRI PARIWISATA DAN JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 330
Author(s):  
COKORDA BAGUS YUDISTIRA ◽  
I WAYAN SUMARJAYA ◽  
LUH PUTU IDA HARINI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
The World

Bali is known as one of the most popular tourism destination in the world. The number of tourist visit to Bali increases every year. In 2010, there roughly 7 millions tourist visits to Bali and reach up to 14 million people by the end of 2017. This increased in number may affect the growth of tourism industries and economic growth in Bali Province. This study aims to analyze the patterns of causal relationship between tourism industry receipts, tourist visits, and economic growth in Bali based on time series data using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The results conclude the following: (i) foreign tourist visits is significantly affect economic growth. In addition, economic growth, domestic tourist visits, and foreign tourist visits are significantly impact to tourism industry receipts, (ii) economic growth would affect the tourism industry receipts in the next four consecutive months, (iii) the forecasting result of economic growth with VAR model is highly accurated with MAPE 2%.

The Causal Relationship between Tourist Arrivals and Economic Growth: Evidence from Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhamad Rifki FADILAH ◽  
Haryo KUNCORO ◽  
K. Dianta A. SEBAYANG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Main Motivation ◽  
Foreign Tourist

The main motivation behind this research because nowadays tourism becomes one of the major industries in Indonesia. However, literature on the causal relationship between the cyclical components of tourist arrivals and economic growth revealed inconclusive especially in the developing countries as Indonesia. This paper aims at investigating whether foreign tourist arrivals contribute to economic growth evidence from Indonesia over the period 2004 (1) – 2016 (12). Then, this research was applied the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Afterwards, we exploited Hodrick-Prescott de-trending procedure to obtain cyclical components of tourist arrivals and economic growth. By using the test of Granger-causality, we found that causality running from tourist arrivals to economic growth. Furthermore, the VAR model shows that tourist arrivals were pro-cyclical to economic growth, implied that the increase of tourist arrivals promote the economic growth so that foreign tourist arrivals could be the key to escalate Indonesia’s economic growth in short term.

scholarly journals Forecasting Foreign Tourist Visits to West Nusa Tenggara Using ARIMA Method

Jurnal Varian ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-96
Author(s):  
Siti Soraya ◽  
Maulida Nurhidayati ◽  
Baiq Candra Herawati ◽  
Anthony Anggrawan ◽  
Lalu Ganda Rady Putra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Central Statistics

West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) is one of the provinces in Indonesia that has its own charm in the world of tourism and is known as a pioneer of halal tourism. In addition to domestic tourists, NTB tourism always has an attraction for foreign tourists. This is evidenced by the increasing number of foreign tourists visiting NTB from year to year before the Covid-19 pandemic. This condition certainly has a positive impact on increasing NTB’s economic growth in the tourism sector and indirectly on the optimization of existing infrastructure. The purpose of the study is to predict the number of  foreign tourist visits to NTB so that it can assist the government in making decisions in preparing adequate facilities and infrastructure in the event of a surge in tourist visits. The method used in this study is the Box-Jenkins-ARIMA model. The ARIMA method is based on 3 models that are formed from the results of plot data. The data used in this study is secondary data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), from January 2010 to June 2019. The results show that the ARIMA (4,1,1) model is the most widely used model. This model is suitable for predicting the number of foreign tourists visiting NTB because this model produces the lowest SSE and MSE values compared to other models.

scholarly journals Pengembangan Ekonomi Indonesia Berbasis Wisata Halal

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Fitrianto Fitrianto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Great Opportunity ◽  
Indonesian Government ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Tourism Destinations ◽  
Islamic Values

<p><em>This paper describes the development of Indonesian economy based on halal tourism. The tourism sector is Indonesia's mainstay in gaining foreign exchange. Tourism can be used as an engine of economic growth for the country. The Indonesian government targets 20 million foreign tourist visits in 2019. Foreign tourist visits to Indonesia have increased during 2017 to 2018. The Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) released the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia during 2018 to reach 15.81 million or an increase of 12.58%. In 2018, foreign exchange from the tourism sector accounted for US $ 17 M, an increase of 11.8%.</em></p><p><em>Halal tourism is a tourism concept that matches Islamic values. Indonesia has a great opportunity in developing the halal tourism sector. Bank Indonesia (BI) states that halal tourism also supports the development of Islamic economics. Halal tourism can strengthen the country's economy. In April 2019 Indonesia was ranked first in the category of the world's best halal tourism destinations based on the Global Muslim Travel Index (GMTI) standard.</em></p>

FAKTOR FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO NEGARA-NEGARA ASEAN PERIODE 2005-2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-29
Author(s):  
Leorista Milliardo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Analytical Tool ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Process Data ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Asean Member ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Asean Countries

This study was conducted with the aim of identifying the factors affecting economic growth in ASEAN member countries during the period of 2005 - 2014, with the countries sampled in this study were six countries namely Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. The method of analysis used is the method of Data Panel Regression and Fixed Efect estimation model by using analytical tool to help process data is Eviews 7 program. While data used is panel data from eight ASEAN countries covering 10 year periods. The result of analysis shows that the acceptance of International Tourism Sector and Foreign Direct Investment has positive and significantinfluenceto the economic growth in eight ASEAN countries while the Labor Force is inconclusive. The study also found that Export of Goods and Services had a negative and significanteffect on economic growth.

Has the Internet increased FDI, economic growth, and trade? Evidence from Asian economies

2021 ◽  
pp. 026666692199974
Author(s):  
Zi Hui Yin ◽  
Chang Hwan Choi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Internet Use ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Western Asia ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Transaction Efficiency

This study examines the causal relationship between the Internet and economic factors in Asian economies between 1997 and 2017. The economic factors consist of gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), imports, and exports. A comparative analysis of East, South, and Western Asia was conducted using a panel vector autoregressive model. The findings show bidirectional causality between FDI and Internet use in South Asia, unidirectional causality from Internet use to FDI in East Asia, and unidirectional causality from FDI to Internet use in Western Asia. Moreover, the findings indicate unidirectional causality from exports to Internet use in East Asia and unidirectional causality from Internet use to exports in South Asia, but no impact in Western Asia. Finally, the results show unidirectional causality from Internet use to GDP in Western Asia. As these results suggest that Internet use has boosted economic performance in Asia, policy makers in the region should improve Internet use with a focus on economic growth, improving transaction efficiency, and facilitating foreign investment.

scholarly journals Hypothesizing directional causality between the governance indicators and economic growth: the case of Afghanistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Naim Azimi ◽  
Mohammad Musa Shafiq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Government Effectiveness ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
The Government

AbstractThis paper examines the causal relationship between governance indicators and economic growth in Afghanistan. We use a set of quarterly time series data from 2003Q1 to 2018Q4 to test our hypothesis. Following Toda and Yamamoto’s (J Econom 66(1–2):225–250, 1995. 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8) vector autoregressive model and the modified Wald test, our empirical results show a unidirectional causality between the government effectiveness, rule of law, and the economic growth. Our findings exhibit significant causal relationships running from economic growth to the eradication of corruption, the establishment of the rule of law, quality of regulatory measures, government effectiveness, and political stability. More interestingly, we support the significant multidimensional causality hypothesis among the governance indicators. Overall, our findings not only reveal causality between economic growth and governance indicators, but they also show interdependencies among the governance indicators.

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Energy Utilization in China

2013 ◽  
Vol 734-737 ◽  
pp. 1666-1670
Author(s):  
Fei Hu Yang ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
Xiao Wei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Energy Utilization ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Recycling Economy ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Based on the co-integration test, error correction model and vector autoregressive model, the empirical analysis results show a long-term co-integration relationship between economic growth and energy utilization in China, energy consumption increased by 1%, GDP will increase by 1.342%. In order to raise the efficiency of energy utilization during China's economic development, suggestions like saving energy conservation, reducing emission and recycling economy have been proposed.

scholarly journals The Finance Growth Link: Comparative Analysis Of Two Eastern African Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashenafi Beyene Fanta ◽  
Daniel Makina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Sub Saharan

This paper examines the finance growth link of two low-income Sub-Saharan African economies – Ethiopia and Kenya – which have different financial systems but are located in the same region. Unlike previous studies, we account for the role of non-bank financial intermediaries and formally model the effect of structural breaks caused by policy and market-induced economic events. We used the Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), conducted impulse response analysis and examined variance decomposition. We find that neither the level of financial intermediary development nor the level of stock market development explains economic growth in Kenya. For Ethiopia, which has no stock market, intermediary development is found to be driven by economic growth. Three important inferences can be made from these findings. First, the often reported positive link between finance and growth might be caused by the aggregation of countries at different stages of economic growth and financial development. Second, country-specific economic situations  and episodes are important in studying the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Third, there is the possibility that the econometric model employed to test the finance growth link plays a role in the empirical result, as we note that prior studies did not introduce control variables.

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