scholarly journals Forecasting Foreign Tourist Visits to West Nusa Tenggara Using ARIMA Method

Jurnal Varian ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-96
Author(s):  
Siti Soraya ◽  
Maulida Nurhidayati ◽  
Baiq Candra Herawati ◽  
Anthony Anggrawan ◽  
Lalu Ganda Rady Putra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Central Statistics

West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) is one of the provinces in Indonesia that has its own charm in the world of tourism and is known as a pioneer of halal tourism. In addition to domestic tourists, NTB tourism always has an attraction for foreign tourists. This is evidenced by the increasing number of foreign tourists visiting NTB from year to year before the Covid-19 pandemic. This condition certainly has a positive impact on increasing NTB’s economic growth in the tourism sector and indirectly on the optimization of existing infrastructure. The purpose of the study is to predict the number of  foreign tourist visits to NTB so that it can assist the government in making decisions in preparing adequate facilities and infrastructure in the event of a surge in tourist visits. The method used in this study is the Box-Jenkins-ARIMA model. The ARIMA method is based on 3 models that are formed from the results of plot data. The data used in this study is secondary data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), from January 2010 to June 2019. The results show that the ARIMA (4,1,1) model is the most widely used model. This model is suitable for predicting the number of foreign tourists visiting NTB because this model produces the lowest SSE and MSE values compared to other models.

scholarly journals The effects of government expenditure on sustainable economic growth in India: assessment of the circular economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 72 (01) ◽  
pp. 74-80
Author(s):  
SMITHA NAYAK ◽  
VARUN S.G. KUMAR ◽  
SUHAN MENDON ◽  
RAMONA BIRAU ◽  
CRISTI SPULBAR ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Online Data ◽  
The Government

Government expenditure is linked to the economic growth and is the driving force of the every country. In the post liberalization era, India has been exposed to the dynamics of the world economy due to which India has witnessed a significant impact of Government spending on its economic growth. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of the Central Government spending on the growth of the Indian economy over a period, from 2006 to 2016. The online data disclosures of the various ministries have been the major source of secondary data. Co-integration analysis is adopted to evaluate the effect of individual sectorial spending on the economic growth and gross domestic product. The economic spending is classified into 5 sectors namely: General Services, Social Services, Economic Services, Grants in Aid & Contribution and Public debt & Loans for analysis, as disclosed by the sources. The analysis gives us an idea of the various sectors which have a positive impact and the sectors which have a negative impact. The results would play an instrumental role in exploring the sectors in which the government should invest more, thereby contributing to an enhancement in the country’s growth.

scholarly journals Analysis of Factors Affecting the Number of Foreign Tourists to Indonesia

2021 ◽  
pp. 102-112
Author(s):  
Siti Riska Ulfah H ◽  
Lukytawati Anggraeni ◽  
Muhammad Firdaus
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Section Data ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

Indonesia's tourism potential can be used as the main driver of the Indonesian economy. This study aims to analyze the performance of the Indonesian tourism sector and analyze the factors that influence the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia. The method used in this research is a descriptive qualitative analysis method and static panel model analysis. The type of data used in this study is secondary data, including annual time series data for five years, from 2010 to 2014. It also includes cross-section data from nine countries that are the main visitors to the Indonesian tourism sector, namely Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, UK, and the USA. The development and growth of the performance of the Indonesian tourism sector increased in the period 2010 to 2014. The number of foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia is influenced by the variables of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of the country of origin, economic distance, relative prices, and security dummy which have a significant effect on the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia, while the exchange rate and dummy travel warning variables have no significant effect. Therefore, the government needs to maintain the stability of the exchange rate and inflation rate as well as the coordination of related parties and institutions in maintaining political, economic, social stability and increasing the promotion of Indonesian tourism to foreign countries.

scholarly journals Travel and tourism: growth potentials and contribution to the GDP of Saudi Arabia

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 417-427
Author(s):  
Anis Ali
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The World ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Government ◽  
Tourism Revenue

Saudi Arabia is well known in the world for the holy places Makkah and Madinah. Hajjis and visitors come to perform hajj and Umrah every year in Makkah and Madinah from all around the world. Hajj and Umrah visits play a vital role in the inbound tourism of Saudi Arabia. The tourism revenue of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is increasing absolutely but losing its contribution to the GDP proportionately. So, this paper tries to find out the economic activities of all components of tourism sector which are responsible for the negative trend. It also explains the relationships and variability of tourism revenues and expenditures with GDP and offers suggestions to enhance revenue of tourism sector. This study is based upon secondary data obtained from the website of SAMA (Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority) and General Authority for Statistics of Saudi Arabia. In tourism sector of Saudi Arabia, the increasing trend of expenditures of some economic activities is more than its revenue. The increasing trend of expenditures comparatively its revenues lowering contribution of tourism towards GDP. To improve the level of tourism revenue, government has to provide world class facilities and develop new tourist spots and allow the visitors to visit such places according to the Shariah and Kingdom rules. Government has to focus on developing passenger rail transport and other means of transport to connect all the tourist spots to provide easy conveyance, and on improving and developing tourism sector by helping the government and private organizations that are engaged directly or indirectly in providing services to the domestic and inbound tourists to assure more contribution to GDP.

scholarly journals PERKEMBANGAN PARIWISATA HALAL DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asri Noer Rahmi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Qualitative Methods ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Tourist Attractions ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The World ◽  
Positive Results ◽  
Central Statistics

This study aims to know the development of halal tourism in Indonesia and how it affects the economic growth in Indonesia. Halal travel destinations are tourist attractions that provide Muslim friendly facilities from serving food, supporting environments such as halal hotel facilities, places of prayer, and non-halal products for sale in halal tourism areas. In the Qur'an, Allah S.W.T writes, go to historical places and take lessons from your journey. This study uses qualitative methods with data obtained from the results of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), GMTI, and the World Halal Travel and Tourism Index. The results obtained in this study found that halal tourism shows positive results and positive responses from domestic and foreign tourists, this can be seen from the data obtained by increasing GDP and top 10 halal tourism in OIC countries and many foreign tourists coming and enjoy halal tourist attractions that already exist in Indonesia. This can encourage the central government to immediately make halal tourism legislation in Indonesia, so that the halal tourism sector in Indonesia can be promoted and famous in the world Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat perkembangan pariwisata halal di Indonesia dan bagaimana pengaruhnya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Destinasi wisata halal adalah tempat wisata yang menyediakan fasilitas Musmil friendly dari penyajian makanan, lingkunan yang mendukung seperti fasilitas hotel halal, tempat ibadah, dan juga tidak ada produk-produk non halal yang dijual didaerah wisata halal. Didalam Al-Qurán Allah S.W.T menuliskan berpergianlah kalian ke tempat-tempat bersejarah dan ambilah pelajaran dari perjalanan yang kalian lakukan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan data yang diperoleh dari hasil Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), GMTI, dan World Halal Travel and Tourism Index. Hasil yang diperoleh pada penelitian ini adalah bahwa pariwisata halal menunjukkan hasil yang positif dan respon yang baik dari wistawan domestik maupun mancanegara, hal ini dapat dilihat dari data yang diperoleh dengan peningkatan GDP dan top 10 pariwisata hala di negara OIC dan banyak wisatawan mancanegara yang datang dan menikmati tempat wisata halal yang sudah ada di Indonesia. Hal ini dapat mendorong Pemerintah pusat untuk segera membuat perundang-undangan pariwisata halal di Indonesia, agar sector pariwisata halal di Indonesia dapat dipromosikan dan dapat dikenal di Dunia.

scholarly journals Peran Sukuk Surat Berharga Syariah Negara (SBSN) dalam Pertumbuhan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 421
Author(s):  
SIti Latifah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Islamic Finance ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Library Research ◽  
The Government

Indonesia has enormous potential in developing Islamic finance because Indonesia has the largest number of Muslims in the world and high economic growth. The issuance of State Sharia Securities (sukuk) has become the main financing instrument. The presence of sukuk further strengthens the government's ability to finance the budget deficit. The government has many choices in determining the combination of its financing instruments. The government can keep debt costs to a minimum. This study aims to determine 1) the development of sukuk in Indonesia and 2) the role of sukuk in Indonesia's economic growth. This research uses qualitative methods and library research approach. Researchers use secondary data, namely data sourced from existing literature or references. The results of this study are 1) The Indonesian government has issued Retail Sukuk (SR), namely SR 001 - SR 013. The issuance of State Sukuk from year to year continues to increase, in accordance with developments and strategies applied in the APBN. 2) The role of State Sukuk has a very positive impact, such as financing project development, encouraging development of the Islamic financial market, creating branch marks in the Islamic financial market, developing alternative investment instruments, and utilizing public funds.

scholarly journals Economic Impacts of Development Tourism Activities in Pangururan District, Samosir Regency Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-89
Author(s):  
Nanda Sofia, S.T
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Regional Tourism ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Poverty Levels

Abstract. The tourism sector dramatically affects the economic growth of an area, where tourism activities are expected to minimize poverty levels and manage local communities. However, the economic impact on tourism development activities is essential to note, addition to having a positive impact on tourism development activities it also has a negative impact. This study aims to see the extent of the impact that occurs in the Pangururan Regency in activities. The method used in this research is a qualitative study method through descriptive journals and literature studies. Economy development from tourism has a significant impact on regional tourism revenues. The results of this study are expected to measure the extent of the impact of economic development on the tourism sector. And moreover results are expected to help the government in developing tourism programs in Pangururan Samosir District which can increase tourists visiting both the tourism season and the semi-quiet season.

ARIMA model for forecasting COVID-19 Death cases in India (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeya Sutha M
Keyword(s):  
Arima Model ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
World Health ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
Death Cases

UNSTRUCTURED COVID-19, the disease caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a highly contagious disease. On January 30, 2020 the World Health Organization declared the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. As of July 25, 2020; 15,947,292 laboratory-confirmed and 642,814 deaths have been reported globally. India has reported 1,338,928 confirmed cases and 31,412 deaths till date. This paper presents different aspects of COVID-19, visualization of the spread of infection and presents the ARIMA model for forecasting the status of COVID-19 death cases in the next 50 days in order to take necessary precaution by the Government to save the people.

Analysis of Financial Performance of Public Sector Banks in India: CAMEL

2020 ◽  
pp. 097674792096686
Author(s):  
Yudhvir Singh ◽  
Ram Milan
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Asset Quality

Public sector banks have been merged by the government in the last few years. This is the rationale behind conducting this study. The purpose of this article is to determine the factors affecting the performance of public sector banks in India and the interrelationship between bank-specific determinants and performance of public sector banks. In this article, we shall analyse the financial data of all the public sector commercial banks for a period spread across 11 years (2009–2019); Capital adequacy, Assets quality, Management efficiency, Earning, and Liquidity (CAMEL) has been used as a performance determinant; system generalised method of moments (GMM) analysis has been used to find the effect of determinants on the performance measurement of public sector banks; and CCA (canonical correlation analysis) has been used to find the interrelationship between the bank-specific determinants and the performance of public sector banks. The finding has important implications in terms of performance in the banking sector. Certain limitations of this study are: It is based on secondary data. The study only covers the financial aspects and not the non-financial aspects. It is found that the asset quality is negatively related with performance of public sector banks. Liquidity and inflation are inversely related to performance of public sector banks in India. Capital adequacy is positively related with banks’ performance, but inversely related with banks’ interest margin. GDP growth has a significant positive impact on banks’ performance, but inversely related with banks’ interest income. Inflation rate is inversely related with banks’ performance. Banking sector reforms are insignificantly related with banks’ performance.

Internal and External Security Challenges of Nepal

Unity Journal ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 251-262
Author(s):  
Sumitra Karki
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Data ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Cyber Attack ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
India And China

Nepal has been a home to diversified settlement in terms of ethnicity, religion, dialect and culture since its outset in civilization. It also lies between two great military and economic giants of Asia – India and China – that are hostile to each other. While these bring abundant opportunities for Nepal, it possesses several internal and external security threats. Nepal suffers from cyber-attack, environmental degradation, pandemic, ethnic, racial or religious conflicts, inequality and poverty, extremism, human trafficking, corruption, migration and trans-boundary crime. In addition, Nepal also faces several security threats, traditional and non–traditional, including terrorism and insurgency. These threats possess serious implications on peace and security of Nepal and the South Asian region. There is a need of serious study about the major internal and external security challenges that Nepal faces in recent decades. This study aims at examining some of the major security challenges, explore the factors behind it, and attempt to suggest few policy recommendations to the government of Nepal to deal with them. The study is conducted by reviewing the primary and secondary sources of data. The primary data includes documents of the government agencies, press release, joint statement and organizational reports. It also includes the interviews with security experts, bureaucrats, policy makers and academicians. Similarly, secondary data includes books, news reports, academic journals, seminars report and reports of research institutes and think tanks. The study highlights that Nepal should prepare itself to meet with the emerging internal and external security challenges what have emerged in recent times. With the rise of India and China, two adversarial powers in the region, Nepal possess extreme challenges in days to come. Similarly, hardly any countries of the world had prepared itself to deal with recent pandemic like COVID-19 that has shattered even the most powerful countries of the world. Taking lessons from these, it is time for Nepal to learn and prepare to mitigate the challenges.

scholarly journals The Roles of English in the Development of Tourism and Economy in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 305-313
Author(s):  
Ida Ayu Made Sri Widiastuti ◽  
◽  
I Nengah Dasi Astawa ◽  
Ida Bagus Nyoman Mantra ◽  
Putu Herny Susanti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
World Economy ◽  
National Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Industry Sector ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government

Tourism is very necessary to continue to be developed to improve the economy in Indonesia and increase the position of the country geographically, which is very strategic for tourism and the world economy. For this reason, the ability to communicate in English is absolutely necessary, in order to compete with workers from other countries, so that they can contribute to the improvement of the national economy. The ability to communicate in English is a strategic sector in the development of highly competitive human resources in the tourism industry sector and in the global economic community. By having good English communication skills, it will be easier to grab market share in the tourism industry sector and the economic sector. The tourism sector as one of the prime industrial development is developed in order to further increase the rate of national development. For this reason, it is necessary that the government continues to increase its resilience, policies, and increase the development of tourism with a view to further developing the community's economy and increasing the ability to speak English so that human resources are able to compete in various tourism industries so that the economy will increase.

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