scholarly journals Prediction of possible scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian economy in the context of a “hybrid” war the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 156-170
Author(s):  
Julia Lutsik ◽  
Serhii Korotin ◽  
Olexandr Kuchmeyev
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Hybrid War ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Economic Conflict ◽  
Political Economic

In the article identifies that in modern military conflicts have emphasis is shifting towards a comprehensive application of political, economic, informational and other non-military measures. It was noted that for achieve the objectives in the “hybrid” war – the economic sphere is an important operating space and a key non-military mechanism for the preparation and realization of aggression. It was found that for maximum attenuation in the “non-contact” economic potential enemy state, the use of economic instruments in combination with other non-military levers can significantly minimize the use of armed arsenal of the aggressor country. In the article selected research object, the object of the conflict and stakeholders. The purpose of the article was to predict the four scenarios of development of the Ukrainian economy and the probability of their achievements along 2020-2035 years, based on the selected baseline scenario. For the formation of the main components of the baseline scenario were analyzed strengths and weaknesses of the internal factors of the economy in view of the major contributing factors, and direct and indirect losses from the warfare of the Russian Federation (RF) in the east of Ukraine and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. They were analyzed by external economic threats, focusing on the monopoly of economic dependence of Ukraine from Russian markets. As a result, it was revealed the main trends and the key factors that have the largest share of influence on forecasting of economic conflict. Based on this analysis defines the main axis with the extrema, the most affecting on the object of investigation. Based on the method of scenario planning predicted four possible scenarios of economic development of Ukraine for the next 15 years, the strengths and weaknesses of each simulated scenario. The probabilities of accomplishing the desired, not desired, probable and least probable scenarios are determined.

NECESSITY, FEASIBILITY, AND CHOICE OF WAY OF INTEGRATING THE GREATER EURASIAN PARTNERSHIP AND THE INITIATIVE CALLED “ONE BELT, ONE PATH”

2021 ◽  
pp. 109-116
Author(s):  
Huirong Zhao ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
People’S Republic Of China ◽  
People's Republic Of China ◽  
Republic Of China ◽  
Eurasian Continent ◽  
Large Scale Integration ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Scale Integration ◽  
Political Economic

The article covers the combination of two large-scale integration projects, the Great Eurasian Partnership (Russian Federation) and the initiative called One Belt, One Path (People’s Republic of China). Following the joint statement of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation dated 5 June 2019, which sets out the fundamental provisions of a comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction between the two countries, the author states that the cooperation between Russia and China is conditioned by a number of the political, economic, cultural, and geographical factors; that it can bring tangible benefits not only to Moscow and Beijing, but to almost the entire Eurasian continent, as well as stabilise the global situation. However, in the process of their interaction Russia and China constantly encounter various obstacles, which manifest themselves at the bilateral, regional, and global levels and significantly slow down the implementation of joint projects, which are mutually beneficial. In this work, the author proves that the cumulative intensifying effect on the cooperation between Russia and China can be provided by the strategy of “pairing” integration projects of Russia and China, which the parties have been implementing quite consistently and steadily since 2014.

Assessment of indicators of innovation activity and implementation of the policy of state support for small innovative business in the Russian Federation

2021 ◽  
pp. 3-10
Author(s):  
А.А. Абдулвагапова
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Small Business ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Innovation Activity ◽  
Small Business Owners ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Research Personnel ◽  
The Russian Federation

В статье представлены результаты оценки внешних и внутренних факторов, оказывающих влияние на реальный объем инновационных товаров, работ и услуг посредством построения модели по панельным данным за 2011-2018 годы по семидесяти двум регионам Российской Федерации. Было выявлено приблизительно тождественное влияния численности научно-исследовательского персонала и вводимых в действие общих площадей жилых домов на зависимую переменную. Также представлены результаты проведенного опроса собственников малого бизнеса на предмет выявления факторов-ограничителей, препятствующих инновационной деятельности. The article presents the results of assessing external and internal factors that influence the real volume of innovative goods, works and services by building a model based on panel data for 2011-2018 for seventy-two regions of the Russian Federation. It was found that the influence of the number of research personnel and the total area of residential buildings put into operation on the dependent variable was approximately identical. Also presented are the results of a survey of small business owners in order to identify factors-constraints that impede innovation.

EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL FACTORS OF EVOLUTION OF THE EURASIAN TRACK OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA’S FOREIGN POLICY

2021 ◽  
pp. 177-192
Author(s):  
Nicole BODISHTEANU
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Soft Power ◽  
Recipient Country ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Policy Direction

The author considers main external and internal factors of the formation of the Eurasian track in foreign policy of the Republic of Moldova from 2009 to 2020. Among main internal factors of the development of the Eurasian (as opposed to European) track of foreign policy, the author singles out: 1) coming to power of the pro-Russian president I. Dodon; 2) current orientation of the economy on the market of the CIS countries; 3) pro-Western parliamentary contingent and representatives of the Party of Action and Solidarity led by M. Sandu, who, on the contrary, helps to blur this track. Among external factors, the author does put an accent on: 1) the influence of the Ukrainian crisis on public opinion of Moldovan citizens towards Western institutions, and as a result, the growing popularity of the «pro-Russian» foreign policy direction; 2) «soft power» of the Russian Federation, mostly concentrated on a common language (Russian) and cultural values (literature, historical past, etc.); 3) willingness of Eurasian partners (mainly the Russian Federation) to provide assistance in crisis situations at no cost, unlike European and Western institutions, which traditionally indicate a number of democratic transformations in the recipient country as one of the conditions for providing assistance. The author comes to the conclusion that the Eurasian track of the foreign policy of the Republic of Moldova is still in its «infancy», but it has great potential and promises interesting prospects for a small state with a favorable geographical position, located at the crossroads of the most important transport routes between the West and the East.

scholarly journals Indicators of Economic Security in the Scientifi c and Technological Sphere

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 5-17
Author(s):  
M. S. Vlasova ◽  
O. S. Stepchenkova
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Triple Helix ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Triple Helix Model ◽  
Technological Potential ◽  
Innovative System ◽  
National Power ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Production Resources

Improving competitiveness in the scientifi c and technological sphere is one of the strategic directions for development of the national economy of the Russian Federation. In this regard, the scientifi c and technological potential and the degree of alignment of scientifi c, public and production resources come to the fore as the main components of the national power of the Russian Federation. This article addresses questions of selecting the criteria for assessing economic security in scientifi c and technological sphere amidst the formation of national innovative system in the Russian Federation using the triple helix model. The authors reviewed the existing systems of criteria and indicators, proposed matrix indicators to assess economic security in a scientifi c and technological fi eld according to the triple helix principle, calculated values of indicators according to the data from forty-three countries, made comparative analysis of the normalized partial indicators. The authors also formulated conclusion showing the strengths and weaknesses of scientifi c and technological sphere in the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals Cultural policy and social practice in the regions of the Russian Federation

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 29-40
Author(s):  
Sergey N. Komissarov ◽  
Vladimir M. Soldatov
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Social Practice ◽  
Cultural Policy ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
The State ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Main Components

The article analyzes the practical experience of the participation of the authors of the article in the development and implementation of the republican program for the implementation of the state cultural policy in the Republic of Dagestan. In terms of methodology, the analysis is based on the concept of regional cultural policy previously developed for this program in this subject of the Russian Federation (RF). It takes into account the most important provisions of the approved presidential "Fundamentals of the State Cultural Policy" in 2014, the government "Strategies of the State Cultural Policy for the period until 2030" in 2016, as well as other documents of strategic planning and programming of culture in the Russian Federation. The study showed that these documents require a significant update of the main components of cultural development programs in the regions of the Russian Federation. In this connection, the greatest attention is paid to the authors of the new goals and objectives of the state cultural policy in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as well as indicators (indicators) of evaluating the effectiveness of implementing regional programs in general, the effectiveness of achieving goals and solving problems in its main areas (sub-programs), in particular.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF CURRENT INFORMATIONAL ASPECTS OF PROBABLE SCENARIO FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MILITARY CONFLICT WITH THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-25
Author(s):  
V. Bashynskyi ◽  
H. Pievtsov ◽  
P. Openko ◽  
A. Kozyr
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Soft Power ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Business Law ◽  
Modern Information Technology ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The beginning of the XXI century was characterized by the emergence of a new type of war – information one, when victory is achieved not by destroying the armed forces and the economy of the enemy, but through the impact on his moral and psychological condition. In modern conflicts, methods based on the integrated application of political, economic, informational and other non-military measures based on military force are increasingly used. The combination of these methods is implemented in the concept of hybrid warfare, the leading idea of which consists in achieving political goals with minimal military influence on the enemy through the use of modern information technology based on "soft power" and "hard power". The peculiarity of such a war is that it is conducted in disguise using mostly non-linear tactics and is not aimed at capturing the entire territory of the country, although it is possible to take control of partial territories, but to obtain patronage over the state, which is achieved through influence on the population, politics, business, law-enforcement agencies. A striking example of the implementation of the concept of hybrid war is the actions of the Russian Federation (hereinafter - Russia) against Ukraine. At the same time, Russia's "hybrid policy" is not limited to Ukraine. It also covers Europe and the United States, the EU and NATO. In order to analyze the development of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia in the period up to 2035, an analysis was made on the development of the information aspect of relations between Ukraine and other influential regional and world actors on the development of the situation around Ukraine. In preparing the forecast, the tools of scenario analysis were used, namely: the analysis of the main influencing factors, which allowed determining the trends of regional development until 2035. This analysis makes it possible to develop a baseline scenario for the development of the situation, provided that the situation around Ukraine over time will not change significantly; the main factors that are difficult to predict and non-collinear are identified.

scholarly journals КРИЗА ІНСТИТУТУ ДЕМОКРАТІЇ В УМОВАХ ГІБРИДНОЇ ВІЙНИ: ЕЛЕКТОРАЛЬНИЙ РАКУРС

2019 ◽  
pp. 4-15
Author(s):  
Т. Г. Андрієвський
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
World Order ◽  
Main Process ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government ◽  
Hybrid War

In this article the vulnerability of democratic states in the context of a hybrid war through the prism of political institutions and processes was considered. It is determined that the Russian Federation in its dissemination of hybrid threats pays special attention to the institute of direct democracy - elections as the main process of state functioning. Through disinformation campaigns and manipulations with democratic values and principles, the aggressor tries to weaken the opponents, undermine political systems from the inside, and exacerbate tension and polarization in society. The article analyzes the publication of the adviser to the president of the Russian Federation, Vladislav Surkov, in which the unequivocal threat to the Western democratic world order is expressed. An analysis of the statements of Surkov showed that modern liberal democracy is an extremely vulnerable mechanism, where the Russian Federation spreads chaos by manipulating. The aggressor focuses on the erosion of confidence in the government and the strengthening of populism. A similar result is achieved by spreading misinformation and manipulating information. It has been established that misinformation is intended to create an appropriate public opinion, which should correspond to the goals of the aggressor. It is established that the aggressor is interested in the elections as a process, and therefore the victory of a particular (pro-Russian) candidate is not so important for aggressor’s purposes. Therefore the process of voting is bringing to the point of absurdity, which would entail doubts about the result of such a procedure. Accordingly, the final result of such elections will be a political system without voter’s confidence. Narratives that are “thrown” into the information field are designed to disorient the voter as much as possible, to polarize society, which ultimately should cast doubt on the effectiveness of the electoral process. Therefore, Russian propaganda, through various channels, simultaneously criticizes all the political forces, even opposing in its ideology, or supports some of them (e.g. far-right or far-left populist movements).

scholarly journals Productive and Technological Innovation Infrastructure of the Regions of Russia

REGIONOLOGY ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 436-460
Author(s):  
Arthur M. Nosonov
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Innovation Systems ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Regional Innovation Systems ◽  
Regional Innovation ◽  
Technological Infrastructure ◽  
Innovation Infrastructure ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Regions Of Russia

Introduction. In the modern world, socio-economic and political leadership of a country is based on the generation of new knowledge, its commercialization and use in all areas of human activity, it being an important prerequisite for improving the competitiveness of the state. To achieve this goal, individual elements of the national innovation system including the main components of the innovation infrastructure are being formed in many constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Materials and Methods. The constituent entities of the Russian Federation are the object of the research, the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the main components of the innovative productive and technological infrastructure being the subject of the study. A typology of Russia’s regions in terms of the development of their innovative productive and technological infrastructure was carried out. To calculate the integral index of the level of infrastructure development, linear scaling was applied; the number of different objects of productive and technological infrastructure in each region was used as the input indicator. Results. The types of the regions of Russia have been singled out according to the level of development of the productive and technological infrastructure and their brief description has been given. One and the same type includes territories having a similar structure and level of saturation with objects of productive and technological infrastructure which is manifested indirectly in the main results of the innovation activities of the regions. It has been revealed that more than half of the regions of Russia have a low level of development of the productive and technological infrastructure, a small number of regions are characterized by a high level of infrastructure development, in other constituent entities of the Russian Federation an average level of innovation infrastructure development has been noted. Discussion and Conclusion. The level of the innovative development of the regions of Russia largely depends on the degree of development of the productive and technological infrastructure. Further progress of the productive and technological component of the regional innovation systems is associated with the development of effective marketing mechanisms for the commercialization of innovations, with the improvement of the quality of education and its focus on the issues of innovation. The results of the research can be used by decision makers to substantiate the diversification of regional innovation systems in accordance with the priority directions of the technological development of the country.

scholarly journals Current state of the government bond market in the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-94
Author(s):  
M. N. Lakoza
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Banking Regulation ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government

The article reveals the main current trends of the government bond market in the Russian Federation. Various factors that influence the state bond market were studied. External factors included geopolitical risks, rating actions, monetary policy of world Central banks, and the dynamics of oil prices. The main internal factors were: lower inflation, the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy, the return of non–residents to Russian ruble debt, the strengthening of the ruble, the Bank of Russia’s policy in terms of banking regulation, and the flexible policy of initial placement of Federal loan bonds. In 2019, external factors did not have a primary impact on the Russian government securities market, but they determined the General background of investor relations. The market was largely influenced by internal factors.

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