Climate Change in Bosnia and Herzegovina According to Climate Scenario RCP8.5 and Possible Impact on Fruit Production

This paper presents the results of research on possible climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina according to the climate scenario RCP8.5 and its potential impact on fruit production. Climate change analyses are based on expected fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation and climate indices. The results indicate pronounced climate change, which refers to an increase in annual temperature to 5 °C, and a decrease in annual precipitation of up to 30% and in the summer season (June, July, and August) and up to 40% by the end of the XXI century. In addition, an increase in the number of summer days and a decrease in the number of days with the appearance of snow can be expected. Reducing the number of days with snow and snow cover can cause a decrease in underground aquifers with water during the winter and spring seasons. These changes can have a serious impact on the problem of drought and water deficit, which can have direct consequences for the agricultural sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially for fruit production. These findings show that fundamental changes in agriculture and an approach to land treatment and water resources management, as well as fruit production planning in changed climatic conditions, are needed.

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Evaluating the Tourist Climate Comfortable Period of China in a Changing Climate

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2020/8886316 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-11

Author(s):

Dan-Dan Yu ◽

Shan Li ◽

Zhong-Yang Guo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Scientific Evidence ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Index ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Changing Climate

The evaluation of climate comfort for tourism can provide information for tourists selecting destinations and tourism operators. Understanding how climate conditions for tourism evolve is increasingly important for strategic tourism planning, particularly in rapidly developing tourism markets like China in a changing climate. Multidimensional climate indices are needed to evaluate climate for tourism, and previous studies in China have used the much criticized “climate index” with low resolution climate data. This study uses the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and daily data from 775 weather stations to examine interregional differences in the tourist climate comfortable period (TCCP) across China and summarizes the spatiotemporal evolution of TCCP from 1981 to 2010 in a changing climate. Overall, most areas in China have an “excellent” climate for tourism, such that tourists may visit anytime with many choices available. The TCCP in most regions shows an increasing trend, and China benefits more from positive effects of climate change in climatic conditions for tourism, especially in spring and autumn. These results can provide some scientific evidence for understanding human settlement environmental constructions and further contribute in improving local or regional resilience responding to global climate change.

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Contrasting effects of climate change on the European and global potential distributions of two Mediterranean helicoid terrestrial gastropods

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-019-01573-w ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (8) ◽

pp. 2637-2650 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Małgorzata Proćków ◽

Kamil Konowalik ◽

Jarosław Proćków

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Land Snails ◽

Limiting Factors ◽

Terrestrial Gastropods ◽

Potential Gain ◽

Distribution Ranges ◽

Physiological Adaptations

AbstractPredicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of alien or endangered species is an essential subject in macroecological studies. Although several investigations have been devoted to animal and plant species, few have addressed terrestrial gastropods. We employed spatial distribution modelling to construct European and global potential distribution ranges of two land snails (Cernuella virgata and Hygromia cinctella) using current and future climate scenarios. Both species have been continuously spreading northward from the Mediterranean region, also being introduced to a few areas outside Europe. We found that under the current climate scenario, most presently occupied areas in Europe are also at high probability of future occurrence of these species. However, under four future climatic conditions, these snails will undergo contrasting scenarios. C. virgata will have a large potential gain, likely due to rising temperatures and its weak fluctuations. In this species, global warming increases in potential area size, accompanied by its morphological and physiological adaptations to arid conditions and the ability to passively disperse, are likely to facilitate invasion into new regions of the world. In contrast, there is no significant change in the geographical distribution of colonisation-prone areas for H. cinctella. Our results demonstrate that wetter climatic conditions in the driest season and greater temperature variability will be key limiting factors of its distribution in the future. An understanding of colonisation patterns can help to better manage these invaders and also to formulate policies for their control.

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Analysis of Anomalies and Trends of Climate Change Indices in Zacatecas, Mexico

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli8040055 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 55

Author(s):

Oscar Pita-Díaz ◽

David Ortega-Gaucin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Data Availability ◽

Sufficient Evidence ◽

Maximum Temperature

Sufficient evidence is currently available to demonstrate the reality of the warming of our planet’s climate system. Global warming has different effects on climate at the regional and local levels. The detection of changes in extreme events using instrumental data provides further evidence of such warming and allows for the characterization of its local manifestations. The present study analyzes changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mexican state of Zacatecas using climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). We studied a 40-year period (1976–2015) using annual and seasonal time series. Maximum and minimum temperature data were used, as well as precipitation statistics from the Mexican climatology database (CLICOM) provided by the Mexican Meteorological Service. Weather stations with at least 80% of data availability for the selected study period were selected; these databases were subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling using Climatol, which runs in the R programming language. These homogenized series were used to obtain daily grids of the three variables at a resolution of 1.3 km. Results reveal important changes in temperature-related indices, such as the increase in maximum temperature and the decrease in minimum temperature. Irregular variability was observed in the case of precipitation, which could be associated with low-frequency oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The possible impact of these changes in temperature and the increased irregularity of precipitation could have a negative impact on the agricultural sector, especially given that the state of Zacatecas is the largest national bean producer. The most important problems in the short term will be related to the difficulty of adapting to these rapid changes and the new climate scenario, which will pose new challenges in the future.

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The potential impact of climate change on the occurrence of winter freeze events in six fruit crops grown in the Okanagan Valley

Canadian Journal of Plant Science ◽

10.4141/cjps09042 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 90 (1) ◽

pp. 85-93 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

H A Quamme ◽

A J Cannon ◽

D Neilsen ◽

J M Caprio ◽

W G Taylor

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sweet Cherry ◽

Fruit Production ◽

Early Spring ◽

Synoptic Weather ◽

Key Words Climate Change ◽

Sweet Cherries ◽

Potential Impact ◽

Infrequent Event ◽

Okanagan Valley

The main limitation to fruit production in the Okanagan Valley is winter injury. Examination of historical records between 1916 and 2006 revealed 16 severe winter-kill events with two occurring in November, eight in December, four in January and two in February. Extreme low minimum temperatures are associated with poor production of grape, peach, apricot, sweet cherry, pear, and apple, and although all are subject to winter injury during most of the 4-mo period, the time when each crop is most at risk differs. Grapes, apples and sweet cherries are more subject to injury in the early stages of acclimation during November to mid-January, whereas pears, peach and apricot are more subject during January and February. During the period 1948-2006, Arctic outflows were associated with all of these winter freeze events. This synoptic weather pattern was an infrequent event but had a great impact on production. A decrease in frequency and increase in minimum temperature of Arctic outflows appeared to be associated with the warming trends of the region during winter and early spring, although a slight increase in frequency of Arctic outflows was observed during late autumn. If this pattern in climate change continues, an extension of the northern range of the grapes, apples and sweet cherries in this region might not be as great as anticipated, whereas the production of pears, peaches and apricots might be expanded. Key words: Climate change, fruit, Okanagan Valley, winter injury, Arctic airflow

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Analysis of Anomalies and Trends of Climate Change Indices in the State of Zacatecas, Mexico

10.20944/preprints202003.0123.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Oscar Pita-Díaz ◽

David Ortega-Gaucin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

The State ◽

Data Availability ◽

Sufficient Evidence ◽

Maximum Temperature

Sufficient evidence is currently available to demonstrate the reality of the warming of our planet's climate system. Global warming has different effects on climate at the regional and local levels. The detection of changes in extreme events using instrumental data provides further evidence of such warming and allows for the characterization of its local manifestations. The present study analyzes changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mexican state of Zacatecas using climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDI). We studied a 40-year period (1976-2015) using annual and seasonal time scales. Maximum and minimum temperature data were used, as well as precipitation statistics from the Mexican climatology database (CLICOM) provided by the Mexican meteorological service. Weather stations with at least 80% of data availability for the selected study period were selected; these databases were subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling using Climatol, which runs in the R programming language. These homogenized series were used to obtain daily grides of the three variables at a resolution of 1.3 km. Results reveal important changes in temperature-related indices, such as the increase in maximum temperature and the decrease in minimum temperature. Irregular variability was observed in the case of precipitation, which could be associated with low-frequency oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The possible impact of these changes in temperature and the increased irregularity of precipitation could have a negative impact on the agricultural sector, especially given that the state of Zacatecas is the largest national bean producer. The most important problems in the short term will be related to the difficulty of adapting to these rapid changes and the new climate scenario, which will pose new challenges in the future.

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THE PROBLEM OF WATER AND LAND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN UZBEKISTAN

Kokand University Herald ◽

10.54613/001006 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Suriya Torayeva

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Agricultural Products ◽

Land Resources ◽

Secondary Salinization ◽

Resources Management ◽

Current State ◽

Vegetable Products ◽

State Of Water

This article examines the current state of water and land resources in Uzbekistan. Since the agricultural sector in Uzbekistan occupies a significant share of the national and gross domestic product value, the quality of these resources is especially important for our republic. The main problem in obtaining the high- quality agricultural products in the region is the lack of water, salinization and soil erosion, as well as their secondary salinization, which is amplified due to climate change in this region. Studies show that this affects the productivity of an agricultural products. Taking this into account we understand the necessity of reduction of the harvesting of cotton and rice for less moisture consumed fruit and vegetable products. To achieve this expected results in the management of water and land resources, it is necessary to use the international experience of other countries, applying innovative water-saving technologies in the system of irrigation of land resources incorporating the problem of climate change.

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The impact of climate change on the investment attractiveness of agricultural enterprises

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/915/1/012016 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 915 (1) ◽

pp. 012016

Author(s):

N Davydenko ◽

Z Titenko ◽

A Buriak ◽

O Polova

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Degradation ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Direct Impact ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Economic Stability ◽

Agricultural Enterprises ◽

Agricultural Enterprise ◽

The Impact

Abstract The trend of climate change has a direct impact on the economic development of any country. Ukraine is an agrarian country and climatic conditions have a direct impact on its economic stability. The purpose of this work is to highlight the tightness of climate change and their direct impact on the development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine’s economy on the example of a particular agricultural enterprise and develop recommendations for adapting the enterprise to climate change. The conducted research clearly shows the negative consequences of climate change and the forms of their manifestation, which threaten not only the studied enterprise, but also the agricultural sector of Ukraine. It is established that the main ones are the following: instability of temperature indicators, soil degradation and the spread of diseases and pests of crops.

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Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (AmbrosiaL.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.3104 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. e3104 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Karen Rasmussen ◽

Jakob Thyrring ◽

Robert Muscarella ◽

Finn Borchsenius

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Climate Scenario ◽

Health Impact ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Future Health ◽

Baltic Countries

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosiaspp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27–100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

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The Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural System in Fiji

Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.5539/jas.v14n2p144 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 144

Author(s):

Mohammed Rasheed Igbal

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Pacific Islands ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Atmospheric Composition ◽

Agricultural System ◽

Local Market ◽

Assistance Program ◽

Adverse Weather

Climate change is one of the most crucial challenges identified in this century for the Pacific Region, such as Fiji, Samoa, Solomon Islands and many more. Citizens of Fiji have gone through peculiarly climatic and weather conditions over the past years like globalization, which had led to many consequences, especially in the agricultural sector which is the main income of many livelihoods not only in Fiji but in other Pacific countries as well. Climatic conditions have been changing adversely from past decades, such as temperature, rise in the sea level, precipitation changes, atmospheric composition changes, flooding, and tropical cyclones. These changes have led to alterations in the environment, thus, affecting crop and livestock production in the agricultural system. For instance, crops that require specific soil and temperature situations are vastly influenced when the temperature level changes suddenly, making the crops vulnerable to adapt to the alterations and therefore, the crops eventually die. Likewise, animal species also get affected by temperature changes, such as heat stress which specifically affects the fertility of male and female livestock. Due to these events, Fiji’s economies have also been affected since agriculture plays a vital role in boosting our economy through local market sales and exporting. Thereby, this review illustrates the impacts of climate change and ways to move forward/ solutions, for example, FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) and Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Program (PICCAP) have supported Fiji in bringing adaptation programs for preparing farmers and all other individuals on the upcoming climatic conditions such as adapting tolerant crops that can handle droughts and other adverse weather conditions.

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Brazilian Coffee Production and the Future Microbiome and Mycotoxin Profile Considering the Climate Change Scenario

Microorganisms ◽

10.3390/microorganisms9040858 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 858

Author(s):

Deiziane Gomes dos Santos ◽

Caroline Corrêa de Souza Coelho ◽

Anna Beatriz Robottom Ferreira ◽

Otniel Freitas-Silva

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Climate Change Scenario ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

World Market ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Water Shortages ◽

Coffee Production

Brazil holds a series of favorable climatic conditions for agricultural production including the hours and intensity of sunlight, the availability of agricultural land and water resources, as well as diverse climates, soils and biomes. Amidst such diversity, Brazilian coffee producers have obtained various standards of qualities and aromas, between the arabica and robusta species, which each present a wide variety of lineages. However, temperatures in coffee producing municipalities in Brazil have increased by about 0.25 °C per decade and annual precipitation has decreased. Therefore, the agricultural sector may face serious challenges in the upcoming decades due to crop sensitivity to water shortages and thermal stress. Furthermore, higher temperatures may reduce the quality of the culture and increase pressure from pests and diseases, reducing worldwide agricultural production. The impacts of climate change directly affect the coffee microbiota. Within the climate change scenario, aflatoxins, which are more toxic than OTA, may become dominant, promoting greater food insecurity surrounding coffee production. Thus, closer attention on the part of authorities is fundamental to stimulate replacement of areas that are apt for coffee production, in line with changes in climate zoning, in order to avoid scarcity of coffee in the world market.

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