scholarly journals Future energy scenarios of household in Bhaktapur District

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 36-43
Author(s):  
Yogesh Bajracharya
Keyword(s):  
Total Energy ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Rural Area ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Energy Planning ◽  
District Energy ◽  
Ghg Reduction ◽  
Co2 Equivalent ◽  
Business As Usual

Energy plays a pervasive and critically important role in economic and social development. So, energy planning is important area of study. For Bhaktapur district energy plan, the survey was done by using the questionnaire. Total of 91 samples from rural area and 112 samples from urban area were taken to prepare primary database. The total energy demand was 952 TJ in rural area and 458 TJ in urban area in 2013. LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternative Planning System) software was used for energy planning. Five scenarios, Business as Usual (BAU), Reference (REF), Accelerated Growth Rate (ACC), and Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) in REF and ACC case scenarios were developed. Total energy demand in 2030 will be 2,748 TJ for BAU, 3,799 TJ for REF and 6,203 TJ for ACC case whereas total demand limits from 766 TJ and 1,241 TJ in SE4ALL scenario in REF and ACC case respectively. Again the total energy demand for 2045 will be 4,945 TJ, 9,104 TJ and 22,592 TJ for BAU, REF and ACC case respectively. Total energy demand for SE4ALL scenario will be 1,807 TJ and 4,381 TJ for REF and ACC case respectively. The GHG reduction up to 2045 by SE4ALL approach is 1.79 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in REF and 3.54 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in ACC Scenario.

scholarly journals Electricity as a Cooking Means in Nepal—A Modelling Tool Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2841 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramchandra Bhandari ◽  
Surendra Pandit
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
High Growth ◽  
High Growth Rate ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ◽  
Fuel Switching ◽  
Cooking Energy ◽  
Business As Usual

Cooking energy has an important role in energy demand of Nepal. Over the last decade, import of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) has increased by 3.3 times as an alternate cooking fuel to kerosene and firewood. The growing subsidy burden to endorse modern fuel switching from traditional energy sources and high import of LPG are challenges for sustainability and energy security. This paper analyzes the future residential cooking energy demand and its environmental and economic impacts from 2015 to 2035 using a Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) tool. In 2035, the LPG demand for cooking is projected to be 26.5 million GJ, 16.3 million GJ, 45.2 million GJ and 58.2 million GJ for business as usual (BAU), low growth rate (LGR), medium growth rate (MGR) and high growth rate (HGR) scenarios, respectively. To substitute LPG with electricity in the cooking sector by 2035, an additional 1207 MW, 734 MW, 2055 MW and 2626 MW hydropower installation is required for BAU, LGR, MGR and HGR scenarios, respectively. In the MGR scenario, substituting LPG with electricity could save from $21.8 million (2016) to $70.8 million (2035) each year, which could be used to develop large-scale hydropower projects in the long term.

scholarly journals Long-Term Forecast of Energy and Fuels Demand Towards a Sustainable Road Transport Sector in Ecuador (2016–2035): A LEAP Model Application

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Rivera-González ◽  
David Bolonio ◽  
Luis F. Mazadiego ◽  
Sebastián Naranjo-Silva ◽  
Kenny Escobar-Segovia
Keyword(s):  
Total Energy ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Alternative Fuels ◽  
Road Transport ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Fuel Quality ◽  
Sustainable Mobility ◽  
Vehicle Class ◽  
Fuel Demand

The total energy demand in the transport sector represented 48.80% of the total consumption in Ecuador throughout 2016, where 89.87% corresponded to the road transport sector. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the future behavior of this sector and assess the economic and environmental measures towards sustainable development. Consequently, this study analyzed: (1) the total energy demand for each vehicle class and fuel type; (2) the GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions and air pollutants NOx and PM10; and (3) the cost attributed to the fuel demand, between 2016 and 2035. For this, four alternative demand scenarios were designed: BAU: Business As Usual; EOM: Energy Optimization and Mitigation; AF: Alternative Fuels; and SM: Sustainable Mobility using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system. After analysis, the EOM, AF, and SM scenarios have advantages relative to BAU, where SM particularly stands out. The results show that SM compared to BAU, contributes with a 12.14% (141,226 kBOE) decrease of the total energy demand, and the economic savings for this fuel demand is of 14.22% (26,720 MUSD). Moreover, global NOx and PM10 emissions decreased by 14.91% and 13.78%, respectively. Additionally, accumulated GHG emissions decreased by 13.49% due to the improvement of the fuel quality for the vehicles that mainly consume liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, and electricity.

scholarly journals Sustainable Energy Planning for Nepal in the Federal Structure

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 127-145
Author(s):  
Shailendra Bhusal ◽  
Amrit Man Nakarmi
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Energy Planning ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Co2 Equivalent ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Federal Structure

This paper examined the energy planning in each province, sustainable technology policy interventions in the energy demand and social cost benefit analysis in energy sector for Nepal in the federal structure over the period 2017-2050 using LEAP-IBC modeling framework. Four scenarios were developed, reference, Low economy, accelerated economy and sustainable scenario, former three are based on socioeconomic assumption and later is technology intervention case. In reference scenario, energy consumption will increase by 3 folds from 544 PJ to 1645 PJ during 2017-2050, whereas in sustainable scenario the value expected to increase to 866 PJ by 2050. In the base year 2017, emission is 69 million metrictons of Co2 equivalents whereas per capita emission is 2.36 metric tons. In the reference scenario the carbon emission increases to 178 million Metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2050 whereas per capita carbon emission increases to the 4.06metric ton in the year 2050. In sustainable scenario the carbon emission increases to 21.95 million Metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2030 whereas per capita carbon emission reduces to the 0.64 metric ton in the year 2030 due to the technological policy intervention. The calculated NPV shows that SED scenario is most economically viable with NPV value 7899 million NRS. In sustainable policy scenario efficient as well as new and improved technologies has been considered as a result of which substantial amount of reduction in energy intensities and per capita final energy consumption is achieved. In reference scenario per capita energy consumption 18GJ is increase to 40 GJ and in sustainable scenario is expected to 19GJ by 2050.

scholarly journals Commercial Energy Demand Forecasting in Bangladesh

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (19) ◽  
pp. 6394
Author(s):  
Asif Reza Anik ◽  
Sanzidur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Future Demand ◽  
Commercial Energy

Although both aggregate and per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is increasing rapidly, its per capita consumption is still one of the lowest in the world. Bangladesh gradually shifted from petroleum-based energy to domestically sourced natural-gas-based energy sources, which are predicted to run out within next two decades. The present study first identified the determinants of aggregate commercial energy and its three major components of oil, natural gas, and coal demand for Bangladesh using a simultaneous equations framework on an annual database covering a period of 47 years (1972–2018). Next, the study forecast future demand for aggregate commercial energy and its three major components for the period of 2019–2038 under the business-as-usual and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic scenarios with some assumptions. As part of a sensitivity analysis, based on past trends, we also hypothesized four alternative GDP and population growth scenarios and forecast corresponding changes in total energy demand forecast. The results revealed that while GDP and lagged energy demand are the major drivers of energy demand in the country, we did not see strong effects of own- and cross-price elasticities of energy sources, which we attributed to three reasons: subsidized low energy prices, time and cost required to switch between different energy-mix technologies, and suppressed energy demand. The aggregate energy demand is expected to increase by 400% by the end of the forecasting period in 2038 from its existing level in 2018 under the business-as-usual scenario, whereas the effect of COVID-19 could suppress it down to 300%. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the highest increase will occur for coal (3.94-fold), followed by gas (2.64-fold) and oil (2.37-fold). The COVID-19 pandemic will suppress the future demand of all energy sources at variable rates. The ex ante forecasting errors were small, varying within the range of 3.6–3.7% of forecast values. Sensitivity analysis of changes in GDP and population growth rates showed that forecast total energy demand will increase gradually from 3.58% in 2019 to 8.79% by 2038 from original forecast values. Policy recommendations include capacity building of commercial energy sources while ensuring the safety and sustainability of newly proposed coal and nuclear power installations, removing inefficiency of production and distribution of energy and its services, shifting towards renewable and green energy sources (e.g., solar power), and redesigning subsidy policies with market-based approaches.

Perubahan Pemaknaan Peran Perempuan Muslim dalam Pengasuhan Anak di Pedesaan Kawasan Prambanan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muryanti Muryanti
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Rural Area ◽  
Day Care ◽  
Rural Society ◽  
Muslim Women ◽  
Economic Reason ◽  
Domestic Worker

Muslim women worked in public sector in all variant jobs not only in urban area, but also in rural area phenomena. They had been doing it because of freedom, education, solidarity, or economic reason. When Muslim women worked in public sector, the new problems were appears, about care of children in the house as domestic work. These phenomenons were related to Indonesian’s culture and Islam perspective that believed the jobs of care of children was women burden. This article described about changing of meaning the role of Muslim women in the caring children. There were many institutions replaced care children, like day care etc. This article used qualitative research with observation and interview. The result of research, there were changing care of children in rural society. Before 2000, Muslim women were depend on family (extend family), neighbors, domestic worker, but in 2013, they prefered care of their children in the new institution (day care) because this institution gave early education to the child and save. But, majority Muslim women in this research believed that domestic works are their jobs.

scholarly journals Postharvest Burning of Crop Residues in Home Stoves in a Rural Site of Daejeon, Korea: Its Impact to Atmospheric Carbonaceous Aerosol

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 257
Author(s):  
Jin Sang Jung ◽  
Ji Hwan Kang
Keyword(s):  
Urban Area ◽  
Rural Area ◽  
Crop Residues ◽  
Sampling Period ◽  
Carbonaceous Aerosol ◽  
Rural Site ◽  
Carbonaceous Aerosols ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Crop Residue Burning ◽  
The Impact

To investigate the impact of burning postharvest crop residues in home stoves, PM2.5 samples (particulate matter with a diameter of <2.5 μm) were collected every 3 h at a rural site in Daejeon, Korea during the postharvest season in 2014. A high concentration of levoglucosan was observed with a peak value of 3.8 µg/m3 during the sampling period. The average mannosan/levoglucosan ratio (0.18) at the rural site during a severe BB episode (levoglucosan > 1 μg/m3) was similar to burnings of pepper stems (0.19) and bean stems (0.18) whereas the average OC/levoglucosan ratio (9.9) was similar to burning of pepper stems (10.0), implying that the severe BB episode was mainly attributed to burning of pepper stems. A very strong correlation was observed between levoglucosan and organic carbon (OC) (R2 = 0.81) during the entire sampling period, suggesting that the emission of organic aerosols at the rural site was strongly associated with the burning of crop residues in home stoves. The average mannosan/levoglucosan ratio (0.17 ± 0.06) in the rural area was similar to that in a nearby urban area in Daejeon (0.16 ± 0.04). It was concluded that crop residue burning in a home stove for space heating is one of the important sources of carbonaceous aerosols not only in a rural area but also in the urban area of Daejeon, Korea during the postharvest season.

scholarly journals Cryptosporidium hominis genotypes involved in increased incidence and clusters of cases, Navarra, Spain, 2012

2014 ◽  
Vol 143 (5) ◽  
pp. 1033-1036 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. FUENTES ◽  
C. MARTÍN ◽  
X. BERISTAIN ◽  
A. MAZÓN ◽  
J. M. SAUGAR ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Area ◽  
Rural Area ◽  
The Other ◽  
Single Exposure ◽  
Cryptosporidium Hominis ◽  
Molecular Subtyping ◽  
The Future

SUMMARYTwo clusters of confirmed cryptosporidiosis infections were detected in Navarra, Spain, in the summer of 2012, in the context of an increased incidence in the region. Molecular subtyping of Cryptosporidium hominis determined that one cluster, occurring in an urban area, was due to the predominant circulating subtype IbA10G2R2 and the other cluster, with cases occurring in a rural area, was due to a rare subtype IaA18R3. No single exposure was associated with infection, although exposure to certain children's pools was reported by a majority of patients interviewed in each cluster. Genotyping tools were useful in the investigation and could aid investigation of cryptosporidiosis outbreaks in Spain in the future.

scholarly journals LEAP-Based Greenhouse Gases Emissions Peak and Low Carbon Pathways in China’s Tourist Industry

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1218
Author(s):  
Dandan Liu ◽  
Dewei Yang ◽  
Anmin Huang
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Tourist Industry ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Carbon Reduction ◽  
Co2 Equivalent

China has grown into the world’s largest tourist source market and its huge tourism activities and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are particularly becoming a concern in the context of global climate warming. To depict the trajectory of carbon emissions, a long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP)-Tourist model, consisting of two scenarios and four sub-scenarios, was established for observing and predicting tourism greenhouse gas peaks in China from 2017 to 2040. The results indicate that GHG emissions will peak at 1048.01 million-ton CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2033 under the integrated (INT) scenario. Compared with the business as usual (BAU) scenario, INT will save energy by 24.21% in 2040 and reduce energy intensity from 0.4979 tons of CO2 equivalent/104 yuan (TCO2e/104 yuan) to 0.3761 Tce/104 yuan. Although the INT scenario has achieved promising effects of energy saving and carbon reduction, the peak year 2033 in the tourist industry is still later than China’s expected peak year of 2030. This is due to the growth potential and moderate carbon control measures in the tourist industry. Thus, in order to keep the tourist industry in synchronization with China’s peak goals, more stringent measures are needed, e.g., the promotion of clean fuel shuttle buses, the encouragement of low carbon tours, the cancelation of disposable toiletries and the recycling of garbage resources. The results of this simulation study will help set GHG emission peak targets in the tourist industry and formulate a low carbon roadmap to guide carbon reduction actions in the field of GHG emissions with greater certainty.

A total energy demand model of Québec

1995 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Arsenault ◽  
J.-T. Bernard ◽  
C.W. Carr ◽  
E. Genest-Laplante
Keyword(s):  
Total Energy ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Demand Model

Transport and Energy Demand in the Developing World: The Urgent Alternatives

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 825-843 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariano Bauer ◽  
Elizabeth Mar
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Internal Combustion Engines ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Economies In Transition ◽  
Light Trucks ◽  
Fuel Substitution ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Business As Usual

The appeal of individual mobility provided today by automobiles and light trucks with internal combustion engines, makes transportation the sector most resilient to a fuel substitution away from its dependence on oil. While the number of vehicles per capita and the distance traveled per vehicle are approaching saturation levels in the industrialized countries (IEA 2002), increases in population and income per capita, economic reforms and industry globalization can result in an off-trend accelerated growth of vehicles in the economies in transition (FSU and EE) and in the developing world (China, India and Latin America, mainly). The corresponding world road use energy consumption could reach a 200 percent increase from present levels by the year 2020, instead of an already worrisome “business as usual” projection of 75 percent (BAUER 2003, 2004). This paper analyses the mitigation effect on world oil demand and on its environmental impact that a policy of leapfrogging towards energy efficient internal combustion technologies and/or alternative vehicles – hybrid or fully electric – could have.

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