scholarly journals The Impact of Candidates’ Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics Approach

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 902
Author(s):  
Camilo Campos-Valdés ◽  
Eduardo Álvarez-Miranda ◽  
Mauricio Morales Quiroga ◽  
Jordi Pereira ◽  
Félix Liberona Durán

In recent years, a wide range of techniques has been developed to predict electoral results and to measure the influence of different factors in these results. In this paper, we analyze the influence of the political profile of candidates (characterized by personal and political features) and their campaign effort (characterized by electoral expenditure and by territorial deployment strategies retrieved from social networks activity) on the electoral results. This analysis is carried out by using three of the most frequent data analyitcs algorithms in the literature. For our analysis, we consider the 2017 Parliamentary elections in Chile, which are the first elections after a major reform of the electoral system, that encompassed a transition from a binomial to a proportional system, a modification of the districts’ structure, an increase in the number of seats, and the requirement of gender parity in the lists of the different coalitions. The obtained results reveal that, regardless of the political coalition, the electoral experience of candidates, in particular in the same seat they are running for (even when the corresponding district is modified), is by large the most influential factor to explain the electoral results. However, the attained results show that the influence of other features, such as campaign expenditures, depends on the political coalition. Additionally, by means of a simulation procedure, we show how different levels of territorial deployment efforts might impact on the results of candidates. This procedure could be used by parties and coalitions when planning their campaign strategies.


1992 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Kretzmer

Political agreements are an integral part of the political system in Israel. For various reasons — mainly the proportional representation electoral system and the existence of a “third bloc” of religious parties that do no fit into the centre-right and centre-left political alliances — no political party has ever enjoyed an absolute majority in the Knesset. The dominant parties have therefore always had to rely on coalition agreements with smaller parties in order to obtain, and subsequently maintain, the parliamentary majority required for a government to rule under Israel's parliamentary system. A similar situation exists in many municipal councils and in other elected bodies, such as the Bar Council.



1980 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 489-503 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Gallagher

Although the selection of candidates for elections to the national parliament is an important part of the political process, there is little writing on the way in which this is carried out in the Republic of Ireland. This no doubt springs largely from parties' reluctance to reveal details of this essentially internal matter. In Duverger's words, ‘parties do not like the odours of the electoral kitchen to spread to the outside world’.



2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 28-45
Author(s):  
Ya. V. Vishnyakov

During the 19th and early 20th centuries, the Eastern question and the search for ways to solve it occupied a central place in the politics of both Russia and European states. With his decision was closely linked the process of formation of the young Balkan countries. Serbia, whose formation of a new statehood typologically coincides with a change in the system of European international relations of the 19th and early 20th centuries, played an important role in the events of the Eastern question, while claiming to be the Yugoslav “Piemont”. However, it was the war by the beginning of the twentieth century. It became, both for Serbia and other countries of the region, not only a means of gaining state sovereignty, but also the main way to resolve its own interstate contradictions, which took place against the background of an external factor - the impact on the political processes of the Balkans of the Great Powers. These factors led to the natural militarization of the everyday life of Serbian society. The presence in the everyday consciousness of the people of the image of a hostile “other” became one of the main ways of internal consolidation of the country, when attitudes towards war, pushing the values of peaceful life to the background, created a special basic consensus in the state development of Serbia at the beginning of the 20th century, and the anthropological role of the military factor was essential influenced the underlying processes that took place in the country at the beginning of the twentieth century. In the conditions of a new stage of destruction of the Balkans along the ethno-political line, the factor of militarization of everyday life again becomes an important element of the historical policy of the Balkan countries and the construction of a “new past”. In this regard, the understanding of many problems and possible scenarios for the development of the current Balkan reality is linked to this phenomenon. Thus, the study of the impact on the political life of Serbia at the beginning of the twentieth century of special "extra-constitutional" institutions is important for a wide range of researchers, including for a systematic analysis of the crisis in the territory of the former SFRY.Author declares the absence of conflict of interests.



2020 ◽  
pp. 165-186
Author(s):  
Keith Popple

This chapter outlines how British populist politics, and in particular right-wing populist politics, has had significant implications for communities, for the theory and practice of community development, and for those presently involved in the activity in the United Kingdom, where it has suffered substantial financial cutbacks. The outcome of the austerity measures that has led to the contemporary presence of populism in the UK has been a mounting dissatisfaction and a general lack of trust in politics amongst millions in the country. This, together with a hangover from the 'parliamentary expenses scandal' that involved members from both Houses of Parliament, has created a marked degree of scepticism about the workings of the British electoral system. Further, there has been a growing lack of confidence in the system of neoliberal globalised finance capitalism that has left countless communities poorer and economically less secure. People's anger and frustration with these actions have been harnessed by the political right, which during the 2016 Referendum debate focused on the impact of immigration on communities. The chapter then notes the unique elements of community development and reflects on the role it can play in these challenging times. It argues that community development now requires greater funding and recognition while reconceptualising itself in a more radical manner.



2020 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Ramírez Plascencia

The advent of internet and other similar technologies has changed the traditional social and political relationships. Since 2015, in Mexico, some election wins have showed that it is possible to win without any support from the mainstream media or, indeed, without being backed by a big political party. Most of the political campaign is then developed through the social networks and digital activism. This article is mainly aimed at understanding the impact of the social networks on the design of campaign strategies, i.e., how to conciliate the interests from different actors and elites in a new hyperconnectivity context.



2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zsófia Papp ◽  
Burtejin Zorigt

This article aims at capturing how the recent changes in Hungary’s mixed-member electoral system altered the candidates’ personal vote-seeking strategies. Based on the literature, one might expect that strengthening the role of the Single-Member District (SMD) tier increases the incentives for personalisation. By utilizing the data from two consecutive waves of the Comparative Candidate Survey, we show that contrary to these expectations the average level of campaign personalisation decreased from 2010 to 2014. Semi-structured interviews with nine campaign staff members confirm that the political constraints were more important in determining campaign strategies than the institutional setting. Our findings challenge the dominating effect of electoral rules on personal vote-seeking.



Author(s):  
Oliver W. Lembcke

The core of Giorgio Agamben’s political theory is his analysis of the ambivalence of politics and its ill-fated relationship with law. The key figure of this relationship, the biopolitical product of it, is the homo sacer, a figure that dates back to ancient Roman law. For Agamben, the homo sacer is the perfect manifestation of the sovereign power that has created this figure by banning it as an outlaw who can be harmed or even killed with impunity—all in the name of law. Agamben’s political theory aims at revealing the inherent logic of the sovereign power and its effects in determining the legal subjects of law (inclusion) and, by the same token, in imposing the pending option of separating these very legal subjects (or parts of them) from the legal order (exclusion). According to Agamben, this “exclusionary inclusion” illustrates not only the logic of biopolitics but also the destructive power of sovereignty that has accumulated the capacity to “form life” at its own interest by binding politics and law together. Historically, this kind of sovereignty has ancient origins, but politically its real power has been unleashed in modern times. For Agamben, homo sacer has become the cipher of modern societies, regardless of the manifold differences between democratic and autocratic political systems; and for this reason, he has dubbed his central project in the field of political theory Homo Sacer. Agamben started his Homo Sacer project with his widely received study, programmatically of the same title, in 1995. Much of what he has written in the years after can be interpreted as elaborations of the impact and consequences of the juridification of politics that he despises so much. For him, contrary to modern constitutionalism’s understanding, juridification is not a process of civilizing the political order; it produces ready-made legal instruments at the disposal of any sovereign anytime. Therefore, according to Agamben, it is a myth, typically told by proponents of liberal democracy, that law has the power to constrain sovereignty; instead, it enables sovereignty. Against this background, it does not come as a surprise that Agamben connects with a wide range of critics of the liberal concept of democracy and tries to make use of their arguments for his own project. For instance, Agamben shares the concept of biopolitics with Foucault but understands it (unlike Foucault) as a general phenomenon of law and politics; moreover, he borrows from Carl Schmitt the theory of the state of exception while transforming it into a permanent structure turning all humans into potential homines sacri; and picks up on Hannah Arendt’s analysis of the concentration camps during the Nazi reign, stressing that the scope of sovereign power is almost unlimited, especially if it is based on an impersonal reign of arbitrariness and uncertainty that enable the production of forms of bare life that can hardly be called human anymore. Taken together, Agamben presents a radical critique of the history and development of the political orders from the Greek origins to modern-day democratic governance. Is there any reason for hope? In some of his studies after the State of Exception (original, 2003), Agamben picks up on this topic, at least indirectly. In The Kingdom and the Glory (2011), for instance, he deals with the industry of hope by discussing the distribution of labor within the holy trinity as the blueprint for the interplay between active, powerful parts of government (governing administration) and the passive, symbolic parts of it (ruling sovereigns). However, this interplay, with the help of “angels” (bureaucrats), produces only spectacular (but empty) glorification for the purpose of self-justification. The cure, if there is any, can only come from a radical detachment that liberates politics from law and, moreover, from any meaningful purpose, so that politics can become a form of pure means: a messianic form, inspired by Benjamin’s idea of divine violence, that has the power of a total rupture without being violent. Following Benjamin, Agamben envisions a “real” state of exception in which sovereignty becomes meaningless. Agamben’s Homo Sacer project has triggered various forms of criticism, which can be divided roughly into two lines of arguments. The first line is directed against the dark side of his theory that all individuals are captured in a seemingly never-ending state of exception. Critics have claimed that this perspective results mainly from Agamben’s strategy of concept stretching, starting with the concept of the state of exception itself. A second line of critique questions Agamben’s concept of politics beyond biopolitics. Because his argument is rather vague when it comes to the prospect of a future political process, it has been suspected that his ideas on the alternative options compared to the current disastrous state of affairs are ultimately apolitical ideas of the political, based on the nonpolitical myth of a fully reconciled society. Despite of these kinds of criticism Agamben has insisted that liberation from the ongoing process of biopolitics will not be brought about by revolutionary actions, but by subversive thinking. Agamben notes that in this messianic concept everything will be more or less the same—“just a little different” (Agamben, 2007b, p. 53). And the difference that he seems to mean is that the potentiality is not determined by the sovereign any longer, but by the individual.



2016 ◽  
pp. 57-75
Author(s):  
Chiung-chu Lin

This paper conducts an analysis of the implementation of the new electoral system (single-district, two-votes system) in practice in 2008. It is focused on the research of two aspects: first, the voter’s awareness of the new electoral system; second, the impact of the new electoral system on the political party system. In the research methods, this article combines the analysis of an individual survey data and information on the election results, trying to find an answer to the question about Taiwan’s voters knowledge of the electoral system situation, the factors that affect the knowledge of the electoral system, as well as the issues of the new electoral system’s impact on the change and development of the political party system. The research has found out that: Taiwan’s voter awareness of the current electoral system is not high. The further research into the relations between the knowledge of the electoral system and the voting choice, as well as the control of other possible factors of influence, showed that the voters who have a more correct and clear understanding of the electoral system have the tendency to vote for small parties.From the results of the general information, the practice of the electoral system indeed led to the decline in pluralistic views. The number of effective parties in the parliament has significantly decreased to that one before restructuring. The new electoral system has made survival difficult for small parties, while the rate of the wasted vote in the regional constituency increased dramatically, making it more difficult to represent pluralistic views.These possible problems caused by the new electoral system, also triggered reactions and initiatives among the domestic public concerning the reform of the electoral system in 2015.



2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Kingsley E. Okoye ◽  
Chikwado Ezugwuorie ◽  
Francisca Onah

Literature on election is mostly anchored on how the voting exercise was carried out successfully or rigged in favour of one candidate over another. These scholars were only interested in analyzing the outcome of election with little or no effort to understand why electorates who cast their votes during election do not choose their leaders. While we acknowledged that vote buying, snatching of ballot boxes, intimidation, and different pattern of malpractices among others contributed to these, we equally noted that scholars have not really tried to find out why the electoral system in Nigeria could not allow candidates that would not only attract massive support but become irresistible during and after election. Therefore, what is often witnessed among presidential flag bearers in Nigeria are candidates who the electorates knew would not make significant impact if elected. As a result, make them (electorates) see voting during election as a routine exercise that must be fulfilled without enthusiasm or eagerness in carrying out such obligation. Election in this situation becomes so difficult that whoever is elected is not actually chosen by the electorates but is allowed to keep the country on track. These political parties are only interested on the radical nature of candidates who can withstand the campaign strategies leaving other areas like understanding - the political terrain of the country and having the will power to transform society against other odds. Until this issue is properly addressed and handled in the political system, voting in election will remain a mere process of choosing leaders that will neither attract peoples mandate nor sustain the democratic structures



2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-19
Author(s):  
Pawan Kumar Saini ◽  
Sapna .

Near Field Communication is a type of Radio Frequency technology that permits exchange of information over a small distance by versatile phones, computers, labels or other electronics devices. This paper is based on Near Field Communication reviews, features and usefulness of the innovation and summarizes the wide range of its present and expected applications in modern era. The aim of the paper is to explore the impact of NFC technology and its applications on libraries and information centers and proposed system will be helpful in the advancement of traditional Library management system.



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