scholarly journals COVID-19 Case Rates in the UK: Modelling Uncertainties as Lockdown Lifts

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Claire Brereton ◽  
Matteo Pedercini
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Programme ◽  
General Public ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Modelling Uncertainties ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Modelling Process

Background: The UK was one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. A strict lockdown from early 2021 combined with an aggressive vaccination programme enabled a gradual easing of lockdown measures to be introduced whilst both deaths and reported case numbers reduced to less than 3% of their peak. The emergence of the Delta variant in April 2021 has reversed this trend, and the UK is once again experiencing surging cases, albeit with reduced average severity due to the success of the vaccination rollout. This study presents the results of a modelling exercise which simulates the progression of the pandemic in the UK through projection of daily case numbers as lockdown lifts. Methods: A simulation model based on the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered structure was built. A timeline of UK lockdown measures was used to simulate the changing restrictions. The model was tailored for the UK, with some values set based on research and others obtained through calibration against 16 months of historical data. Results: The model projects that if lockdown restrictions are lifted in July 2021, UK COVID-19 cases will peak at hundreds of thousands daily in most viable scenarios, reducing in late 2021 as immunity acquired through both vaccination and infection reduces the susceptible population percentage. Further lockdown measures can be used to reduce daily cases. Other than the ever-present threat of the emergence of new variants, the most significant unknown factors affecting the profile of the pandemic in the UK are the length and strength of immunity, with daily peak cases over 50% higher if immunity lasts 8 months compared to 12 months. Another significant factor is the percentage of unreported cases. The reduced case severity associated with vaccination may lead to a higher proportion of unreported mild or asymptomatic cases, meaning that unmanaged infections resulting from unknown cases will continue to be a major source of infection. Conclusions: Further research into the length and strength of both recovered and vaccinated COVID-19 immunity is critical to delivering more accurate projections from models, thus enabling more finely tuned policy decisions. The model presented in this article, whilst by no means perfect, aims to contribute to greater transparency of the modelling process, which can only increase trust between policy makers, journalists and the general public.

scholarly journals Improving the use of evidence in legislatures: the case of the UK Parliament

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 619-638
Author(s):  
David Christian Rose ◽  
Caroline Kenny ◽  
Abbi Hobbs ◽  
Chris Tyler
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Research Evidence ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Advisory Groups ◽  
Science Advisory ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Use Of Research

Despite claims that we now live in a post-truth society, it remains commonplace for policy makers to consult research evidence to increase the robustness of decision making. Few scholars of evidence-policy interfaces, however, have used legislatures as sites of study, despite the fact that they play a critical role in modern democracies. There is thus limited knowledge of how research evidence is sourced and used in legislatures, which presents challenges for academics and science advisory groups, as well as to others interested in ensuring that democratic decisions are evidence-informed. Here, we present results from an empirical study into the use of research in the UK Parliament, obtained through the use of a mixed methodology, including interviews and surveys of 157 people in Parliament, as well as an ethnographic investigation of four committees. Here we are specifically interested in identifying the factors affecting the use of research evidence in Parliament with the aim of improving its use. We focus on providing advice for the Higher Education Sector, which includes improving knowledge of, and engagement in, parliamentary processes, reform of academic incentives to stimulate the production of policy-relevant information and to assist engagement, and working with trusted knowledge brokers. Implementing this advice should improve the chances that parliamentary decision making is informed by research evidence.

Measurement of Vulnerability of Financial Portfolio of Sharia Commercial Banks by Cardona Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Paulina Harun ◽  
Atman Poerwokoesoemo
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Section Data ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
The Face ◽  
Asset Portfolio

his study aims to: (1) to know and analyze the extent of volatility (vulnerability) of sharia banking industry in Indonesia in the face of competition (2) to know and analyze factors affecting vulnerability of sharia commercial banks; (3) to know and analyze the extent of sustainable development of sharia banking industry to Indonesia's economic development.The research conducted to measure the vulnerability (volatility) of proto folio of syariah bank using observation period 2015, and the data used is cross section data. The research design used in this research is quantitative research, using asset dimension (asset portfolio, liability portfolio, equity portfolio) and stressor (pressure, including: credit risk, market risk, and liquidity risk).The activity plan of this research is: in the initial stage of conducting theoretical study related to the vulnerability related to banking especially BUS; The next step is to determine the asset and stressor dimensions associated with the BUS; Further determine the indicators related to assets and stressors; The next step performs calculations to determine the index of each BUS as well as the dimensions that affect the vulnerabilities faced by each BUS.Target expected outcomes can be generated from this research is: for the object of research (BUS) provide a solution for BUS to deal with and overcome the vulnerabilities encountered and policies that must be done. For policy makers, the results of this study are expected to provide input in decision-making and other policies.Measurement of vulnerability to be performed related to banking operations in the face of competition and the continuity of BUS in Indonesia. The outcomes of this study are expected to be included in Bank Indonesia journals, the selection of this journal is based on studies conducted in the banking sector, especially BUS in Indonesia.

scholarly journals European Youth Work Policy and Young People’s Experience of Open Access Youth Work

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
JON ORD ◽  
MARC CARLETTI ◽  
DANIELE MORCIANO ◽  
LASSE SIURALA ◽  
CHRISTOPHE DANSAC ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Open Access ◽  
Young People ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Youth Work ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
European Youth

Abstract This article examines young people’s experiences of open access youth work in settings in the UK, Finland, Estonia, Italy and France. It analyses 844 individual narratives from young people, which communicate the impact of youthwork on their lives. These accounts are then analysed in the light of the European youth work policy goals. It concludes that it is encouraging that what young people identify as the positive impact of youth work are broadly consistent with many of these goals. There are however some disparities which require attention. These include the importance young people place on the social context of youth work, such as friendship, which is largely absent in EU youth work policy; as well as the importance placed on experiential learning. The paper also highlights a tension between ‘top down’ policy formulation and the ‘youth centric’ practices of youth work. It concludes with a reminder to policy makers that for youth work to remain successful the spaces and places for young people must remain meaningful to them ‘on their terms’.

scholarly journals Military Veterans and Welfare Reform: Bridging Two Policy Worlds through Qualitative Longitudinal Research

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Lisa Scullion ◽  
Katy Jones ◽  
Peter Dwyer ◽  
Celia Hynes ◽  
Philip Martin
Keyword(s):  
Welfare Reform ◽  
Longitudinal Research ◽  
Military Veterans ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Veterans Affairs ◽  
Civilian Life ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Uk

There has been an increasing focus in the UK on the support provided to the Armed Forces community, with the publication of the Armed Forces Covenant (2011), the Strategy for our Veterans (2018) and the first ever Office for Veterans’ Affairs (2019). There is also an important body of research – including longitudinal research – focusing on transitions from military to civilian life, much of which is quantitative. At the same time, the UK has witnessed a period of unprecedented welfare reform. However, research focused on veterans’ interactions with the social security system has been largely absent. This article draws on the authors’ experiences of undertaking qualitative longitudinal research (QLR) to address this knowledge gap. We reflect on how QLR was essential in engaging policy makers enabling the research to bridge the two parallel policy worlds of veterans’ support and welfare reform, leading to significant policy and practice impact.

scholarly journals Understanding Urban Commercial Vehicle Driver Behaviors and Decision Making

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110035
Author(s):  
Giacomo Dalla Chiara ◽  
Klaas Fiete Krutein ◽  
Andisheh Ranjbari ◽  
Anne Goodchild
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Vehicle ◽  
Operating Time ◽  
Common Belief ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Urban Freight ◽  
The Road ◽  
Commercial Drivers ◽  
The Common ◽  
Printed Materials

As e-commerce and urban deliveries spike, cities grapple with managing urban freight more actively. To manage urban deliveries effectively, city planners and policy makers need to better understand driver behaviors and the challenges they experience in making deliveries. In this study, we collected data on commercial vehicle (CV) driver behaviors by performing ridealongs with various logistics carriers. Ridealongs were performed in Seattle, Washington, covering a range of vehicles (cars, vans, and trucks), goods (parcels, mail, beverages, and printed materials), and customer types (residential, office, large and small retail). Observers collected qualitative observations and quantitative data on trip and dwell times, while also tracking vehicles with global positioning system devices. The results showed that, on average, urban CVs spent 80% of their daily operating time parked. The study also found that, unlike the common belief, drivers (especially those operating heavier vehicles) parked in authorized parking locations, with only less than 5% of stops occurring in the travel lane. Dwell times associated with authorized parking locations were significantly longer than those of other parking locations, and mail and heavy goods deliveries generally had longer dwell times. We also identified three main criteria CV drivers used for choosing a parking location: avoiding unsafe maneuvers, minimizing conflicts with other users of the road, and competition with other commercial drivers. The results provide estimates for trip times, dwell times, and parking choice types, as well as insights into why those decisions are made and the factors affecting driver choices.

scholarly journals Identifying Risk Factors Affecting the Usage of Digital and Social Media: A Preliminary Qualitative Study in the Dental Profession and Dental Education

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Rayan Sharka ◽  
Jonathan P. San Diego ◽  
Melanie Nasseripour ◽  
Avijit Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Qualitative Study ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Dental Education ◽  
Dental Students ◽  
General Context ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Dental Professionals

Aims: This study aimed to identify the risk factors of using DSM to provide an insight into the inherent implications this has on dental professionals in practice and trainee professionals’ education. Materials and methods: Twenty-one participants (10 dental professionals and 11 undergraduate and postgraduate dental students) participated in this qualitative study using semi-structured interviews in a dental school in the UK. The interviews were analysed and categorised into themes, some of which were identified from previous literature (e.g., privacy and psychological risks) and others emerged from the data (e.g., deceptive and misleading information). Results: The thematic analysis of interview transcripts identified nine perceived risk themes. Three themes were associated with the use of DSM in the general context, and six themes were related to the use of DSM in professional and education context. Conclusions: This study provided evidence to understand the risk factors of using DSM in dental education and the profession, but the magnitude of these risks on the uptake and usefulness of DSM needs to be assessed.

scholarly journals Public Response, Anxiety and Behaviour during the First Wave of COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4628
Author(s):  
Amani Salem Alqahtani ◽  
Meshael Mohammed Alrasheed ◽  
Ada Mohammed Alqunaibet
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Public Response ◽  
Social Events ◽  
Phone Survey ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government

This study aims to investigate public response attitude, anxiety, practices and trust in the authorities’ mitigation plan during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic. A national cross sectional phone survey was conducted among Saudi residents aged 16 years and above. A total of 90,421 (45.2%) individuals participated in the study. Of those, the overall rate of COVID-19 correct knowledge was 82% (mean: 9.84); social media was the most reported source of knowledge. Younger age, low levels of education and foreign residents were associated with poor knowledge. Overall, 49.5% scored 5 or more on the GAD-7 test, indicating anxiety symptoms, 19.2% of them scored 10 and above, suggesting moderate to severe anxiety. Majority of participants (>78%) trusted and supported the interventions implemented by the government to control COVID-19. Social distancing practices among participants was as following, 72.5% stayed at home and avoid going out for nonessential business and 49.5% avoided attending social events and family gatherings. Trust in authorities, being anxious, worry and levels of knowledge about the disease, were the most common factors affecting adoption of the recommended practices. Continuous evaluation of public response about COVID-19, and the effectiveness of protective measures is essential to better inform policy-makers and identify ways of encouraging behaviour change among public during pandemic.

Key facts about the COVID-19 vaccination programme in the UK

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-58
Author(s):  
Sammer Tang ◽  
Kirsty Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Programme ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals Factors affecting consultant attitudes to undertaking undergraduate medical student teaching in the UK: a systematic review

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. e042653
Author(s):  
Isobel Marion Harris ◽  
Heather McNeilly ◽  
Hani Benamer ◽  
Derek J Ward ◽  
Alice J Sitch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Medical Students ◽  
Student Teaching ◽  
Data Extraction ◽  
Undergraduate Medical Students ◽  
Systematic Review Methodology ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Persistent Problem ◽  
Medical Student Teaching ◽  
The Uk

ObjectiveThis systematic review aimed to explore consultant attitudes towards teaching undergraduate medical students in the UK.DesignSystematic review.MethodologyStandard systematic review methodology was followed. MEDLINE, EMBASE and OpenGrey were searched from inception to August 2019 to identify studies exploring senior doctors’ attitudes towards teaching undergraduate medical students. Two reviewers independently carried out key methodological steps including study screening/selection, quality assessment and data extraction. A narrative synthesis was undertaken.ResultsFive studies were included in the review dating 2003–2015. Two studies used questionnaires, and three used focus groups/semistructured interviews. Key findings identified across all studies were consultants generally found teaching undergraduate medical students enjoyable, and consultants identified time constraints as a barrier to teaching. Other findings were consultants feeling there was a lack of recognition for time spent teaching, and a lack of training/guidance regarding teaching students.ConclusionsThis is the first systematic review to explore senior hospital doctors’ attitudes towards teaching undergraduate medical students. Despite these five studies spanning 12 years, the same attitudes and issues regarding teaching are identified by all, suggesting lack of time particularly is a persistent problem regarding consultant-based teaching. An anecdotal impression is that consultants are no longer as enthusiastic about teaching as they once were, but it is evident over the 12 years of these studies that enjoyment levels, and presumably enthusiasm, have not changed significantly.

scholarly journals Knights and Knaves in the English Medical Profession: the Case of Clinical Excellence Awards

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARK EXWORTHY ◽  
PAULA HYDE ◽  
PAMELA MCDONALD-KUHNE
Keyword(s):  
Health Policy ◽  
National Health Service ◽  
Health Service ◽  
Medical Profession ◽  
Clinical Excellence ◽  
Medical Professional ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Written Responses ◽  
Private Interests ◽  
The Uk

AbstractWe elaborate Le Grand's thesis of ‘knights and knaves’ in terms of clinical excellence awards (CEAs), the ‘financial bonuses’ which are paid to over half of all English hospital specialists and which can be as much as £75,000 (€92,000) per year in addition to an NHS (National Health Service) salary. Knights are ‘individuals who are motivated to help others for no private reward’ while knaves are ‘self-interested individuals who are motivated to help others only if by doing so they will serve their private interests.’ Doctors (individually and collectively) exhibit both traits but the work of explanation of the inter-relationship between them has remained neglected. Through a textual analysis of written responses to a recent review of CEAs, we examine the ‘knightly’ and ‘knavish’ arguments used by medical professional stakeholders in defending these CEAs. While doctors promote their knightly claims, they are also knavish in shaping the preferences of, and options for, policy-makers. Policy-makers continue to support CEAs but have introduced revised criteria for CEAs, putting pressure on the medical profession to accept reforms. CEAs illustrate the enduring and flexible power of the medical profession in the UK in colonising reforms to their pay, and also the subtle inter-relationship between knights and knaves in health policy.

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