scholarly journals Forecasting Techniques for Wheat Production in Sindh Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-91
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Statistical Techniques ◽  
Moving Averages ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Wheat Cultivation ◽  
Sindh Province ◽  
Increasing Trend

The present study is an attempt to forecast the wheat production in Sindh province of Pakistan using sophisticated statistical techniques. The secondary data regarding area, production and yield of wheat crop were collected for the last thirty years (1984-85 to 2013-14) for estimation and forecasting purposes using time series techniques such as moving averages and exponential smoothing. The estimates for three, five and seven-years moving averages for area were found to have a minimum value of 849.87,863.04, and 890.09 hectares and maximum value of 1129.4,1111.58, and 1109.6 hectares respectively. Likewise, for production, these estimates were found as 2065.57, 2117.7, 2154.3 and 3917.50, 3740.8, 3469.4 tons respectively. So, for as the yield is concerned, the above-mentioned estimates for minimum and maximum were found as 2071.7, 2107.8, 2121 and 3574.0, 3520, and 3414 respectively. Based on the findings of the present study, it is concluded that during the last thirty years the area, production and yield under wheat cultivation showed an increasing trend. In case of forecasting, the area and production under wheat cultivation was increase in the coming year, but the yield under wheat cultivation was considerably decreased due to shortage of irrigation water.

scholarly journals Wheat Crop Cultivation's Profitability Studies in Sugar Crop Dominated Areas

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-70
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ehsan Elahi ◽  
Muhammad Mansoor Joyia ◽  
Asghar Ali
Keyword(s):  
Arid Zone ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Underlying Assumption ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Land Preparation ◽  
Wheat Cultivation ◽  
Arid Zone Research ◽  
Negative Effect

The study was conducted at Arid Zone Research Centre (AZRC), Dera Ismail Khan (D.I.Khan) to evaluate cost and benefit of wheat cultivation in district Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Paktoon Khwa province of Pakistan during 2015. The basic underlying assumption of economic analysis of wheat production was to assess the farmers/growers financial impact of wheat cultivation. A sample of 200  respondents from 10 major wheat growing villages of the respective areas of the district was interviewed through pretested questionnaire. The study revealed that the cost of wheat production was Rs=35,680 per acres, whereas output comes 1650 Kg per acre (42 mounds) amounting Rs=63,600 per acre. Farmers' margin also rises by adding the value of family labour and owned land which is sufficient to sustain a normal family. Moreover, positive influence between return price and output of wheat was concluded from the study, whereas negative effect of cost was also observed. The output elasticity of Land Preparation (LP), Seed and Sowing (SS), Farm Inputs (FI), Irrigation (Irr), Pesticides (Pest) and Harvesting/Threshing (HT) are 0.124587, 0.31244, 0.5874, 0.55461, 0.08248 and 0.65743, respectively.

Analysis of the status of major vegetables in Bajura, Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (02) ◽  
pp. 157-164
Author(s):  
Devashish Bhandari ◽  
Sagar Dahal ◽  
Arjun Kumar Shrestha ◽  
Govinda Sijapati ◽  
Min Prasad Jaishi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Vegetable Crops ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Status

The favourable climatic condition of Nepal has endowed it for cultivation of greater than 50 vegetable crops and making vegetable sector a dominating sector in terms of area and production after cereals. The time series secondary data of major vegetables grown in Bajura district for area (ha), production (MT) and yield (kg/ha) of total 18 years period from 1999/2000 to 2016/17 was extracted from statistical information on Nepalese Agriculture published by MoALD, publications of VDD (Vegetable Development Directorate), Annual Agriculture Development Program and Statistics Book (AADPSB) published by AKC (Agriculture Knowledge Center) Bajura and beyonds. Other reliable sources of information were also scrutinized for extracting secondary data for the completion of research. MK-Test was used for detecting monotonic trend in the time series and simple linear regression was performed to test a linear trend. MS-Excel software was used for statistical analysis and Linear trend analysis model was used for data interpretation using slope and intercept parameters. The result illustrated that the increment in the rate of vegetable production was higher (258.44 MT/year) than cultivated area (24.599 ha/year) throughout the analyzed period (1999/2000 to 2016/17). Concurrently, the yield of major vegetables was also in increasing trend. Similarly, the recent trends (2012/13 to 2016/17) showed that the yield of Cruciferous crops, Solanaceous crops, Malvaceous crops, Umbelliferae crops and Cucurbitaceous crops was in increasing trend with markable fluctuations in cultivated area and production. This research can be a useful tool for horticulturists and other concerned authorities for further research and amelioration of the status of major vegetables in Bajura district.

scholarly journals Impact of Price and Price Variability on Acreage Allocation in Rice and Wheat Production in Bangladesh

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-30
Author(s):  
Basanta Kumar Barmon ◽  
Muntasir Chaudhury
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Price Variability ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The present study was conducted to estimate the impacts of price and price variability on acreage allocation of rice and wheat production in Bangladesh. Time series data of price and acreage allocation of rice and wheat production during 1983-84 to 2007-08, collected from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) were used in this study. Compound growth rate and Nerlovian models were used. The study indicated that the wholesale price of rice and wheat had significant impact on the allocation of land for rice and wheat production. Significant price variability was found both in case of rice and wheat crop in short-run (SR) and long-run (LR). The values of Nerlovian coefficients of adjustment were found low, which means that although the farmers were adjusting to the changing levels of price, price variability, yield, etc the adjustment was not rapid. Therefore, it may be concluded that the price of rice and wheat should be adjusted rapidly along with allocation of rice and wheat production in Bangladesh.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/agric.v10i1.11061The Agriculturists 2012; 10(1): 23-30

scholarly journals Expectation of Rice Pod Production in Iraq by Using Time Series

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 141-157
Author(s):  
Gorgees Shaheed Mohammad
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Moving Averages ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Statistical Program ◽  
Autoregression Model ◽  
Expected Values ◽  
Shed Light

The research aims to shed light on the reality of the production of Rice pods  in Iraq during the period of time (1943-2019) and its development with time, then predict the production of Rice pods based on three Models of prediction Models, which are the time regression Model on production, in addition to studying the effect of harvested area on production quantities. Then forecasting the production of the Rice pods  according to the Model of the regression of the harvested area on the production, the Autoregression Model, and the integrative moving averages (Box Jenkins Models), and in the end the comparison between the expected values ​​of production through the three Models to know the best Model to represent the time series of production of the Rice pods , through the use of the statistical program (SPSS (, Based on annual secondary data represented by the quantities of Rice pods, and the size of the harvested areas of this material in Iraq for the period from 1945 until 2019 obtained from (Central Statistical Organization, Iraq, 2020)

scholarly journals Analisis Trend dan Perwilayahan Komoditas Mangga Di Kabupaten Indramayu Jawa Barat

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 157
Author(s):  
Juri Juswadi ◽  
Pandu Sumarna
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Location Quotient ◽  
Increasing Trend

This study aims to identify the trend of production and harvested area of mango and identify the sub-districts of the mango commodity base and the characteristics of its distribution in Indramayu Regency in the period 2009-2019. The research data is secondary data that is time series in the period 2009-2019. Data analysis used LQ (location quotient), localization coefficient, and specialization coefficient. The results of the study in 31 sub-districts showed a declining trend of mango production in most of the sub-districts, only six sub-districts showed an increasing trend of mango production, and 10 sub-districts showed an increasing trend of harvested area. The mango commodity base sub-district is located in 17 sub-districts. Mango cultivation is not concentrated in one or several sub-districts but spreads to all sub-districts and there is no sub-district that specializes in mango production but there is a diversity of cultivation of various fruits in all sub-districts in Indramayu Regency.

Has the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak had an impact on uptake of digital cessation support in UK smokers? An interrupted time series analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Perski ◽  
Aleksandra Herbec ◽  
Lion Shahab ◽  
Jamie Brown
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Step Change ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Temporary Closure

BACKGROUND The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak may motivate smokers to attempt to stop in greater numbers. However, given the temporary closure of UK stop smoking services and vape shops, smokers attempting to quit may instead seek out digital support, such as websites and smartphone apps. OBJECTIVE We examined, using an interrupted time series approach, whether the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been associated with a step change or increasing trend in UK downloads of an otherwise popular smoking cessation app, Smoke Free. METHODS Data were from daily and non-daily adult smokers in the UK who had downloaded the Smoke Free app between 1 January 2020 and 31 March 2020 (primary analysis) and 1 January 2019 and 31 March 2020 (secondary analysis). The outcome variable was the number of downloads aggregated at the 12-hourly (primary analysis) or daily level (secondary analysis). The explanatory variable was the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, operationalised as 1 March 2020 (primary analysis) and 15 January 2020 (secondary analysis). Generalised Additive Mixed Models adjusted for relevant covariates were fitted. RESULTS Data were collected on 45,105 (primary analysis) and 119,881 (secondary analysis) users. In both analyses, there was no evidence for a step change or increasing trend in downloads attributable to the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. CONCLUSIONS In the UK, between 1 January 2020 and 31 March 2020, and between 1 January 2019 and 31 March 2020, there was no evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been associated with a surge in downloads of a popular smoking cessation app. CLINICALTRIAL osf.io/zan2s

Construct Validity

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard McCleary ◽  
David McDowall ◽  
Bradley J. Bartos
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Construct Validity ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Intervention Model ◽  
Right Hand ◽  
The Right

Chapter 8 focuses on threats to construct validity arising from the left-hand side time series and the right-hand side intervention model. Construct validity is limited to questions of whether an observed effect can be generalized to alternative cause and effect measures. The “talking out” self-injurious behavior time series, shown in Chapter 5, are examples of primary data. Researchers often have no choice but to use secondary data that were collected by third parties for purposes unrelated to any hypothesis test. Even in those less-than-ideal instances, however, an optimal time series can be constructed by limiting the time frame and otherwise paying attention to regime changes. Threats to construct validity that arise from the right-hand side intervention model, such as fuzzy or unclear onset and responses, are controlled by paying close attention to the underlying theory. Even a minimal theory should specify the onset and duration of an impact.

Analiza spaţio-temporară a duratei de strălucire a soarelui

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodica Cojocari ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Trend Line ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Spatial Aspect ◽  
Temporal Aspect ◽  
Seasonal Aspect ◽  
Annual Amount

In temporal aspect, the duration of sunshine shows a general upward trend. In seasonal aspect, spring season demonstrates an increase of about +0.2 hours, summer - about 0.1 hours, in autumn there is a trend of decreasing, according to the trend line, and the oscillation is equal to zero hours. Also we observe the increase in the number of hours in the spatial aspect. For Briceni meteorological station, the annual amount of sunshine duration varies within the limits of 1544 hours (1980) and 2326 hours (2015). The oscillation limits at the Cahul meteorological station are 1880 hours (1976) and 2604 hours (1963). At the Chisinau meteorological station, there's general increasing trend for the number of hours during which the sunshine duration is maintained, and it exhibits oscillations within 1783 hours (1989) and 2498 hours (1963). In the spatial aspect for winter, this increase +1 hour in Cahul, +0.38 hours in Briceni, and + 0.4 hours / season in Chisinau. In spring, the highest value of +2.2 hours is observed at Briceni and the lowest in Chisinau +1.9 hours / season. At Cahul meteorological station the increase was +1.4 hours. The increase in summer is +1.7 hours in Briceni and Chisinau, and only +0.9 hours in Cahul. Autumn trend line is a downward trend with a -0.3 hours decrease registered at Briceni and Chisinau meteorological stations (minimum values), and -0.6 hours in Cahul, maximum value.

scholarly journals FAKTOR – FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KONSUMSI GAS DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Rohim Rohim ◽  
Mike Triani
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
A Value ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Gas Consumption

The purpose of this research is to determine (1) the effect of income on gas consumption in Indonesia (2) the effect of population on gas consumption in Indonesia (3) the effect of industrial growth on gas consumption in Indonesia. This type of research is descriptive and associative. The data used in this research is secondary data from Indonesia in the form of time series data from 1970 to 2019 and this data was obtained from official institutions of the World Bank and BP Statistic World. The data were processed using multiple linear regression. The results showed that the income had a negative and significant effect on gas consumption with a probability value of 0.0005 <0.05, the population had a positive and significant effect on gas consumption with a value of prob t-count of 0.0010 <0.05 and industrial growth had a positive and significant effect on gas consumption.  The significant to gas consumption in Indonesia with a value of prob t-count value of 0.5219 <0.05 and suggestions for further researchers to be able to analyze other factors that affecting gas consumption in Indonesia.  Because from the gas sectors, there are still many factors that affected gas consumption until the research results will be better

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