Comparative Analysis and Robustness Tests

2014 ◽  
pp. 217-246
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Empirical Application ◽  
Growth Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Growth Analyses

This chapter shows how alternative specifications perform when they are used to estimate growth effects of variables with time series and panel datasets. Of the three methods compared, Rao and Singh's approach seems to work the best. This validates the earlier observations that models with stronger theoretical basis perform better. To gain further confidence in these findings, this chapter applies Sala-i-Martin's (1997) and Levine and Renelt's (1992) extreme bounds procedures to test the robustness of variables and the adopted specifications. This is an important but neglected issue in modeling economic growth and in many other empirical studies. The robustness test results imply that all the tested variables are important determinants of long-run growth, estimated with correct signs, plausible magnitudes, and with high confidence. Globalization and financial sector variables show small but statistically significant and robust relationships with long-run growth. Government spending and investment rate are growth enhancing while high rates of inflation are negatively associated with long-run growth. Analyses in this chapter imply that because of the consistent results obtained from alternative tests, Rao and Singh's (2007) extension seems to be robust and useful for empirical application. This result, therefore, provides greater confidence in the application and use of this new extension in empirical studies, especially for but not restricted to, country-specific studies.

Empirical Literature on Economic Growth, 1991–2020: Uncovering Extant Gaps and Avenues for Future Research

2021 ◽  
pp. 097491012110616
Author(s):  
Natalia I. Doré ◽  
Aurora A. C. Teixeira
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Scientific Attention ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth ◽  
Latin American And Caribbean

The factors required to achieve sustainable economic growth in a country are debated for decades, and empirical research in this regard continues to grow. Given the relevance of the topic and the absence of a comprehensive, systematic literature review, we used bibliometric techniques to examine and document several aspects in the empirical literature related to growth, from 1991 to 2020. Five main results are worth highlighting: (a) the share of empirical articles on economic growth show a clear upward trend; (b) among all the groups of countries considered, the emerging economies (EEs) have received the most scientific attention; (c) the economic growth processes of the Latin American and Caribbean EEs have observed negligible scientific attention; (d) the very long-run studies comprise a residual share among the empirical literature on growth; (e) the extant empirical studies on economic growth have addressed mainly the impact of “macroeconomic conditions.” Our findings suggest there is a need to redirect the empirical growth agenda, so as to encourage more scientific attention devoted to the analysis of key determinants of economic growth in the very long run. There should also be increased scrutiny of the processes of economic growth in Latin American and Caribbean EEs

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals The Nexus between Export and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p95
Author(s):  
Romanus L. Dimoso (PhD, Economics) ◽  
UTONGA, Dickson (MSc. Economics)
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
Econometrics Analysis

This study explored the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. It analyzed time series data for the period of 1980 to 2015. Economic growth is measured in terms of growth per cent while exports are measured in percentage change of goods and services sold abroad. Econometrics analysis was employed in the due course. Such procedures as testing for the presence of unit root, co-integration and causality were done. Furthermore, the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests were employed to examine the long-run relationship among variables. The results of co-integration indicate the existence of one co-integrating equation. The causality test results exhibited causality which runs from economic growth to exports. The results conclude that, in the long run, there is a relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. This study recommends the Government to make efforts to improve exports and eventually, in the long-run, rejuvenating the economy.

scholarly journals How applicable is export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses to South African economy?

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Ntebogang Dinah Moroke ◽  
Molebogeng Manoto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Time Series ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship

This paper investigated exports, imports and the economic growth nexus in the context of South Africa. The paper sets out to examine if long-run and causal relationships exist between these variables. Quarterly time series data ranging between 1998 and 2013 obtained from the South African Reserve Bank and Quantec databases was employed. Initial data analysis proved that the variables are integrated at their levels. The results further indicated that exports, imports and economic growth are co-integrated, confirming an existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causal results were shown running from exports and imports to GDP and from imports to exports, validating export-led and import-led growth hypotheses in South Africa. A significant causality running from imports to exports, suggests that South Africa imported finished goods in excess. If this is not avoided, lots of problems could be caused. A suggestion was made to avoid such problematic issues as they may lead to replaced domestic output and displacement of employees. Another dreadful ramification may be an adverse effect on the economy which may further be experienced in the long-run.

scholarly journals The effects of carbon emissions, rainfall, temperature, inflation, population, and unemployment on economic growth in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL investigation

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0248743
Author(s):  
Md Mazharul Islam ◽  
Majed Alharthi ◽  
Md Wahid Murad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Unemployment Problem

Objective While macroeconomic and environmental events affect the overall economic performance of nations, there has not been much research on the effects of important macroeconomic and environmental variables and how these can influence progress. Saudi Arabia’s economy relies heavily on its vast reserves of petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, gold, and copper, but its economic growth trajectory has been uneven since the 1990s. This study examines the effects of carbon emissions, rainfall, temperature, inflation, population, and unemployment on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Methods Annual time series dataset covering the period 1990–2019 has been extracted from the World Bank and General Authority of Meteorology and Environmental Protection, Saudi Arabia. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration has served to investigate the long-run relationships among the variables. Several time-series diagnostic tests have been conducted on the long-term ARDL model to check its robustness. Results Saudi Arabia can still achieve higher economic growth without effectively addressing its unemployment problem as both the variables are found to be highly significantly but positively cointegrated in the long-run ARDL model. While the variable of carbon emissions demonstrated a negative effect on the nation’s economic growth, the variables of rainfall and temperate were to some extent cointegrated into the nation’s economic growth in negative and positive ways, respectively. Like most other nations the short-run effects of inflation and population on economic growth do vary, but their long-term effects on the same are found to be positive. Conclusions Saudi Arabia can achieve both higher economic growth and lower carbon emissions simultaneously even without effectively addressing the unemployment problem. The nation should utilize modern scientific technologies to annual rainfall losses and to reduce annual temperature in some parts of the country in order to achieve higher economic growth.

scholarly journals Are some taxes better for growth in Pakistan? A time series analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1439-1452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Maryam Sultan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of taxes on economic growth in the long run as well as in the short run. Design/methodology/approach The study uses simple time series model, where real GDP is dependent variable and different forms of taxes are explanatory variables under ARDL framework from 1976 to 2014 at annual frequency for Pakistan. Findings Direct taxes have positive relation with economic growth in the long run. Sales tax, tax on international trade (tariffs) and other indirect taxes have positive impact on economic growth of Pakistan in the long run as well as in the short run. However, sales tax and other indirect taxes impact negatively on economic growth in the short run after one year because people realize decline in their real income. Practical implications Government should increase direct taxes by increasing tax base. Indirect taxes usually indicate negative impact after one and two years; therefore, government should decrease its reliance on indirect taxes. Government should promote tax awareness among the people which increase the tax morale of people and increase the tax base. Originality/value Taxes are disaggregated into direct and indirect taxes, while indirect taxes have been further disaggregated into excise duty, sales tax, surcharges, tax on international trade and other indirect taxes. This study provides useful insight for policy makers in designing taxes and their effect on growth.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN: AN ARDL TO CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-58
Author(s):  
Nooreen Mujahid ◽  
Azeema Begum ◽  
Muhammad Noman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
The Relationship

This paper explores the relationship between export growth and economic growth in the case of Pakistan by employing time series data for the period 1971- 2013. This study has incorporated variables like GDP (Gross Domestic Product) exports, imports and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We have applied ARDL to co-integration and Error Correction Model (ECM). The study provides the evidence of stationary time series variables, the existence of the long - run relationship between them, and the result of ECM revealed short rum equilibrium adjustment. Pakistan has many options for enhancing the export of the country. There is a dire need to minimize trade barriers and restrictions such as import and export quotas. Government of Pakistan had introduced Structural Reforms for liberalization, privatization and de-regulation which will actually shifted the trend of trade at a significant level in the end of 1980s. Low levels of interest rate can help exportable industries in which investments are needed to promote and enhance the exports. Stable exchange rate is the first and the best policy option for increasing the export and managing the imports. There is a cause and effect relationship between exchange rate and FDI. Pakistan has to immediately find the policies and processes that support logistics and facilitates trade.

scholarly journals The Long-Run and Short-Run Impacts of Investment, Export, Money Supply, and Inflation on Economic Growth In Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erni Panca Kurniasih
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Term Investment

ABSTRACTThe development of investment and exports in Indonesia shows an increase, as well as money supply, while the inflation rate shows a decline, but this is not always followed by increasing economic growth. This study aims to explain the relationship between investment, export, money supply and inflation with the economic growth in Indonesia. The data used was time series data from the first quarter in 2001 to the fourth quarter in 2014 and was analyzed using multiple regression models with Error Correction Model (ECM) and classical assumptions. The study findings show that in short-term investment, export, money supply and inflation are not significant to economic growth. In long-run, investment has negative and significant effect on the economic growth, while export, money supply and inflation have positive and significant effect on the economic growth in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia must applied a tight money policy consistently to achieve the long-term inflation target ABSTRAKPerkembangan investasi dan ekspor di Indonesia menunjukkan peningkatan, demikian pula jumlah uang beredar, sementara tingkat inflasi menunjukkan penurunan, namun hal tersebut tidak selalu diikuti dengan meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara investasi, ekspor neto, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series dari kuartal pertama tahun 2001 hingga kuartal keempat tahun 2014 dan dianalisa dengan menggunakan model regresi berganda dengan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil studi menunjukkan  bahwa investasi, ekspor, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Investasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang, sedangkan ekspor , jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi berpengaruh positif dan  signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Bank Indonesia harus menerapkan kebijakan moneter yang ketat secara konsisten pada pencapaian sasaran inflasi jangka menenngah 

Contemporary Survey on the Empirical Literature of Islamic Finance and Economic Growth Relationship

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 14-26
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Musa Gani ◽  
Zakaria Bin Bahari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Islamic Finance ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Financial sector activities are part of the main ingredients for the growth of any economy. The financial activities that were most widely practiced are Interest-based conventional financial activities which are prohibited in Islam. Thus, non-interest Islamic financial activities were introduced and it has been accepted and practiced all around the globe. Therefore, this study surveyed, explored and analysed using library review method, the empirical studies conducted on Islamic finance and the economic growth nexus. The study revealed that the majority of the findings of the empirical studies are in support of a positive and significant contribution of Islamic finance to the growth of the real economy in short run and long run, few of the findings indicate an insignificant contribution. The causal relationship between Islamic finance and growth is mostly bi-directional as reported in many of the studies, but supply leading hypothesis also emerged in some of the few studies. It was concluded that Islamic finance is immensely contributing to the growth of the real economy.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Human Development, Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence From Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 96
Author(s):  
Yan-Teng Tan ◽  
Pei-Tha Gan ◽  
Mohd Yahya Mohd Hussin ◽  
Norimah Ramli
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Remarkable Feature ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social And Cultural Factors ◽  
The Relationship

A remarkable feature of empirical studies is that not many research works investigate the relation between human development and tourism. Although gross domestic product may replace human development to measure economy progress and human well-being in relation to tourism, however, this definition, is narrow, limits to economic side, and ignores the social and cultural factors. To overcome this shortcoming, this study examines the relationship between human development, tourism and economic growth in Malaysia. By using different cointegration approaches, the results indicate that tourism is positively related to human development in the long run. The finding suggests that the known relationship may serve as a guide to policy makers to achieve better development of social and cultural in order to promote the growth.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document