scholarly journals Determinants of Price Fluctuation for Cooking Oil Commodity in Aceh Province, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 113-118
Author(s):  
Hadi Arisyah Putra ◽  
Chenny Seftarita ◽  
Suriani Suriani
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Cooking Oil ◽  
Aceh Province

Aceh Province is still one of the regions in Indonesia whose primary commodities are still largely dependent on other regions that can cause uncontrolled fluctuations in the price especially cooking oil product. One step to overcome these problems is to make accurate price fluctuation predictions so preventive actions can be taken to minimize error estimation of these fluctuations so appropriate policies can be applied. This study focuses on analyzing of forecasting fluctuations in cooking oil prices and the influence of its determinants in the Aceh Province, Indonesia. Price forecasting uses the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach and determinant estimation uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The data used in this study is time-series monthly data from January 2016 to December 2020 from Statistics Indonesia publication. The results of price forecasting show that the monthly price of cooking oil for 2021 and 2022 tends to increase. In early 2021, it is predicted that the price of cooking oil will be in the range of IDR14,500/kg and at the end of the year and early 2022 it is predicted to touch the price range of IDR15,500/kg. Then at the end of 2022 it is predicted that the price of cooking oil will reach IDR17,000/kg. Furthermore, the results of the econometric estimation show that all of the variable determinants have a significant effect on cooking oil prices fluctuations. The variable price of raw materials and the price index received by farmers were found to have a positive effect, while the rainfall variable was found to have a negative effect on cooking oil price fluctuation. According to these findings, it is hoped that the Aceh Provincial Government will be able to take strategic policies on the predicted prices and determinant of variables that have been proven to have a significant effect on cooking oil prices so in the future price fluctuations can be more stable and supply of goods can be maintained, as well as increase the competitiveness of provincial agricultural products.

scholarly journals Price Forecasting and Span Commercialization Opportunities for Mexican Agricultural Products

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 826
Author(s):  
Wilfrido Jacobo Paredes-Garcia ◽  
Rosalia Virginia Ocampo-Velázquez ◽  
Irineo Torres-Pacheco ◽  
Christopher Alexis Cedillo-Jiménez
Keyword(s):  
Fruits And Vegetables ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Product Characterization ◽  
Price Estimation ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Hass Avocado

Decision-making based on data analysis leads to knowing market trends and anticipating risks and opportunities. These allow farmers to improve their production plan as well as their chances to get an economic success. The aim of this work was to develop a methodology for price forecasting of fruits and vegetables using Queretaro state, MX as a case study. The daily prices of several fruits and vegetables were extracted, from January 2009 to February 2019, from the National System of Market Information. Then, these prices were used to compute the weekly average price of each product and their span commercialization in Q4 and over the median of historical data. Moreover, product characterization was performed to propose a methodology for future price forecasting of multiple agricultural products within the same mathematical model and it resulted in the identification of 18 products that fit the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. Finally, future price estimation and validation was performed to explain the product price fluctuations between weeks and it was found that the relative error for most of products modeled was less than 10%, e.g., Hass avocado (7.01%) and Saladette tomato (8.09%). The results suggest the feasibility for the implementation of systems to provide information for better decisions by Mexican farmers.

scholarly journals Forecasting Model Selection of Curly Red Chili Price at Retail Level

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Ketut Sukiyono ◽  
Miftahul Janah
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Price Policy ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing

Chilli is one of strategic commodity in Indonesia due to its contribution to inflation level. For this reason, future price information is very importance for designing price policy. Future price merely can be provided by conducting a price forecasting. Various forecasting models can be applied for this purpose; the problem is which the best model for forecasting is. This study aims to select the most accurate forecasting model of curly red chili prices at the retail level. The data used are monthly data, from 2011 - 2017. Five forecasting models are applied and estimated including Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Decomposition, and ARIMA. The best model is selected based on the smallest MAPE, MSE and MAD values. The results show that the most accurate forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,9).

Peranan Sektor Pertanian dalam Perekonomian Kabupaten Manokwari

Agrotek ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunto Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Food Crops ◽  
Literature Study ◽  
Location Quotient ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Plantation Crops ◽  
Vegetables And Fruits

<em>The agricultural sector</em><em> is a strategic sector in Manokwari regency. The agricultural sector provides a major contribution in the regional economy, an economic base of rural people, dominate the life of most residents in this region and provider of food and raw materials for other sectors. The purpose of this study was to determine how big the contribution of different sub-sectors that exist in the agricultural sector, which analyzes sectors influential in changing the economic structure of agriculture in the area and know the potential commodities that can be developed in an effort to enhance the role of the agricultural sector. The research method used through literature study and analysis of secondary data sourced from the relevant authorities. To find out how big the factors that influence changes in economic structures of domination of the agricultural sector into non-agricultural sector estimates used Ordinary Least Square (OLS). For the determination of the potential commodities that can be seeded used method approach Location Quotient (LQ). The results showed the greatest contribution of the different sub-sectors within the agricultural sector contained in the food crops sub-sector. Based on the rate of growth per year, plantation crops sub-sector occupied the highest positions. The sectors that provide real impact on the agricultural sector's contribution to the regional gross domestic product �of the building sector and services sector. Potential commodities that can be developed in different areas in Manokwari regency include food crops and pulses, vegetables and fruits and livestock including cows, goats, pigs and chicken.</em>

MOMENTUM OSCILLATORS - A TOOL TO PREDICT STOCK PRICE BEHAVIOUR

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shishir Kumar Gujrati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Range Data ◽  
Strength Index ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Price Movements

Stock markets are always taken as the barometer of the economy. The price movement of their indices reflects every ups and downs of the economy. Although seem to be random, these price movements do follow a certain track which can be identified using appropriate tool over long range data. One such method is of Technical Analysis wherein future price trends are forecasted using past data. Momentum Oscillators are the important tools of technical analysis. The current paper aims to identify the previous price movements of sensex by using Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) tools and also aims to check whether these tools are appropriate in forecasting the price trends or not.

scholarly journals The Dynamic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Log Prices in China: An Analysis Based on the TVP-VAR Model

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 449
Author(s):  
Chenlu Tao ◽  
Gang Diao ◽  
Baodong Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Wood Industry ◽  
The Impact

China’s wood industry is vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic since wood raw materials and sales of products are dependent on the international market. This study seeks to explore the speed of log price recovery under different control measures, and to perhaps find a better way to respond to the pandemic. With the daily data, we utilized the time-varying parameter autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, which can incorporate structural changes in emergencies into the model through time-varying parameters, to estimate the dynamic impact of the pandemic on log prices at different time points. We found that the impact of the pandemic on oil prices and Renminbi exchange rate is synchronized with the severity of the pandemic, and the ascending in the exchange rate would lead to an increase in log prices, while oil prices would not. Moreover, the impulse response in June converged faster than in February 2020. Thus, partial quarantine is effective. However, the pandemic’s impact on log prices is not consistent with changes of the pandemic. After the pandemic eased in June 2020, the impact of the pandemic on log prices remained increasing. This means that the COVID-19 pandemic has long-term influences on the wood industry, and the work resumption was not smooth, thus the imbalance between supply and demand should be resolved as soon as possible. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the development of the domestic wood market and realize a “dual circulation” strategy as the pandemic becomes a “new normal”.

scholarly journals Analisis Faktor Produksi Kalapa Sawit Rakyat Menurut Tipologi Lahan di Kabupaten Indragiri Hilir Provinsi Riau

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heriyanto Heriyanto ◽  
Asrol Asrol ◽  
Detri Karya ◽  
Verry Yarda Ningsih
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Cultivation Techniques ◽  
Coastal Land

Heriyanto et al, 2018. Analysis of the Production Factors of the People's Palm Oil According to the Land Typology in Indragiri Hilir Regency, Riau Province. JLSO 7(1): Palm oil commodities are one of the plantation sub-sector commodities that increase the income of farmers and the community, provide processing industry raw materials that create added value. The land cultivated by independent oil palm farmers consists of land land, tidal peatlands, coastal peatlands and coastal land. The difference in typology of this land will contribute to different production. The research aimed to analyze the oil palm production and the dominant factor affecting oil palm production according to the typology of land in Indragiri Hilir Riau Province. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and built multiple regression models with the dummy variable method of Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The results of the study showed that the production of oil palm cultivation on land is the highest compared to the typology of tidal peatland, coastal peat and coastal land. The dominant factors affecting palm oil production in Indragiri Hilir Regency were the amount of fertilizer use, labor, age of plants, herbicides and dummy typology of land. In order to obtain optimal production, this study recommended doing oil palm farming in accordance with the correct cultivation techniques in accordance with the characteristics of land typology. Besides that the use of balanced fertilizer (elements of N, P, and K) in accordance with the recommended needed to be applied.

scholarly journals BENTONITE APPLICATIONS IN SIMPLE PURIFICATION OF BULK COOKING OIL AS ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS FOR HOUSEHOLD COST EFFICIENCY

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-72
Author(s):  
Mira Meirawaty ◽  
Christin Palit ◽  
Dyah Ayu Setyorini ◽  
Moehammad Ali Jambak
Keyword(s):  
Clay Minerals ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Earth Science ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Oil Quality ◽  
Bentonite Clay ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Strong Activity ◽  
Food Ingredients ◽  
Cooking Oil

Utilization of Crude Palm Oil (Crude Palm Oil) in food cooking activities is a strong activity in Indonesian society, more than 80% of household activities use this type of oil to process food ingredients. The affordable price with a variety of packaging makes this type of cooking oil has many fans. A survey that has been conducted on residents of the Kalideres area with a total of 20 respondents stated that in addition to using new palm cooking oil in cooking activities, the majority of residents are also accustomed to using this oil used in cooking activities that require the deep-fried method. The quality of cooking oil is largely determined by the level of purity of the solution, the clearer the color of the solution, the better the quality, the darker the color of the solution indicates the presence of more impurities, the higher the saturated fatty acid emulsion, indicating poor cooking oil quality. This is what was raised in this community service (CS) activity, namely socializing alternatives to the use of purified bulk cooking oil. The purification material uses bentonite clay minerals which are heated and dissolved in a certain amount and duration of time which is able to maximize the adsorption power of impurities according to the natural structure of bentonite. CS activities carried out online include counseling and training activities for housewives in the economically densely populated Kalideres area. Through the socialization program for the purification of bulk cooking oil using bentonite clay minerals, it is hoped that residents will have an alternative to reduce the cost of processing food raw materials in a more effective and healthy way. This program is also expected to function as a medium to socialize the application of earth science in helping activities of daily living.

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