Assessing the options for the operational mapping of the soil moisture content in the European Alps

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Greifeneder ◽  
Klaus Haslinger ◽  
Georg Seyerl ◽  
Claudia Notarnicola ◽  
Massimiliano Zappa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Hourly Data

<p>Soil Moisture (SM) is one of the key observable variables of the hydrological cycle and therefore of high importance for many disciplines, from meteorology to agriculture. This contribution presents a comparison of different products for the mapping of SM. The aim was to identify the best available solution for the operational monitoring of SM as a drought indicator for the entire area of the European Alps, to be applied in the context of the Interreg Alpine Space project, the Alpine Drought Observatory.</p><p>The following datasets were considered: Soil Water Index (SWI) of the Copernicus Global Land Service [1]; ERA5 [2]; ERA5-Land [3]; UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX land-surface component [4]. All four datasets offer a different set of advantages and disadvantages related to their spatial resolution, update frequency and latency. As a reference, modelled SM time-series for 307 catchments in Switzerland were used [5]. Switzerland is well suited as a test case for the Alps, due to its different landscapes, from lowlands to high mountain.</p><p>The intercomparison was based on a correlation analysis of daily absolute SM values and the daily anomalies. Furthermore, the probability to detect certain events, such as persistent dry conditions, was evaluated for each of the SM datasets. First results showed that the temporal dynamics (both in terms of absolute values as well as anomalies) of the re-analysis datasets show a high correlation to the reference. A clear gradient, from the lowlands in the north to the high mountains in the south, with decreasing correlation is evident. The SWI data showed weak correlations to the temporal dynamics of the reference in general. Especially, during spring and the first part of the summer SM is significantly underestimated. This might be related to the influence of snowmelt, which is not taken into account in the two-layer water balance model used to model SM for deeper soil layers. Low coverage in the high mountain areas hampered a thorough comparison with the reference in these areas.</p><p>The results presented here are the foundation for selecting a suitable source for the operational mapping of SM for the Alpine Drought Observatory. The next steps will be to test the potential of MESCAN-SURFEX and ERA5-Land for the downscaling of ERA5 to take advantage of the low latency of ERA5 and the improved spatial detail of the other two datasets.  </p><p>Literature:</p><p>[1]  B. Bauer-marschallinger et al., “Sentinel-1 : Harnessing Assets and Overcoming Obstacles,” IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., vol. 57, no. 1, pp. 520–539, 2019, doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2018.2858004.</p><p>[2]  H. Hersbach et al., “ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present.” Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), 2018.</p><p>[3]  Copernicus Climate Change Service, “ERA5-Land hourly data from 2001 to present.” ECMWF, 2019, doi: 10.24381/CDS.E2161BAC.</p><p>[4]  E. Bazile, et al., “MESCAN-SURFEX Surface Analysis. Deliverable D2.8 of the UERRA Project,” 2017. Accessed: Jan. 11, 2020. [Online]. Available: http://www.uerra.eu/publications/deliverable-reports.html.</p><p>[5]  Brunner, et al.: Extremeness of recent drought events in    Switzerland: dependence on variable and return period choice, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2311–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, 2019.</p>

scholarly journals Predicting impacts of climate change on evapotranspiration and soil moisture for a site with subhumid climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 384-392
Author(s):  
András Herceg ◽  
Reinhard Nolz ◽  
Péter Kalicz ◽  
Zoltán Gribovszki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Rooting Depth ◽  
Agricultural Field ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Water Storage Capacity

Abstract The current and ongoing climate change over Europe can be characterized by statistically significant warming trend in all seasons. Warming has also an effect on the hydrological cycle through the precipitation intensity. Consequently, the supposed changes in the distribution and amount of precipitation with the continuously increasing temperature may induce a higher rate in water consumption of the plants, thus the adaptation of the plants to the climate change can be critical. The hydrological impact of climate change was studied based on typical environmental conditions of a specific agricultural area in Austria. For this purpose, (1) a monthly step, Thornthwaite-type water balance model was established and (2) the components of the water balance were projected for the 21st century, both (a) with a basic rooting depth condition (present state) and (b) with a (hypothetically) extended rooting depth (in order to evaluate potential adaption strategies of the plants to the warming). To achieve the main objectives, focus was set on calibrating and validating the model using local reference data. A key parameter of the applied model was the water storage capacity of the soil (SOILMAX), represented in terms of a maximum rooting depth. The latter was assessed and modified considering available data of evapotranspiration and soil physical properties. The adapted model was utilized for projections on the basis of four bias corrected Regional Climate Models. An extended rooting depth as a potential adaptation strategy for effects of climate change was also simulated by increasing SOILMAX. The basic simulation results indicated increasing evapotranspiration and soil moisture annual mean values, but decreasing minimum soil moisture for the 21st century. Seasonal examination, however, revealed that a decrease in soil moisture may occur in the growing season towards to the end of the 21st century. The simulations suggest that the vegetation of the chosen agricultural field may successfully adapt to the water scarcity by growing their roots to the possibly maximum.

Stochastic soil moisture dynamic modelling: a case study in the Loess Plateau, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 109 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 437-444
Author(s):  
Cong WANG ◽  
Shuai WANG ◽  
Bojie FU ◽  
Lu ZHANG ◽  
Nan LU ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Vegetation Restoration ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Rainfall Regime ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Dry Period

ABSTRACTSoil moisture is a key factor in the ecohydrological cycle in water-limited ecosystems, and it integrates the effects of climate, soil, and vegetation. The water balance and the hydrological cycle are significantly important for vegetation restoration in water-limited regions, and these dynamics are still poorly understood. In this study, the soil moisture and water balance were modelled with the stochastic soil water balance model in the Loess Plateau, China. This model was verified by monitoring soil moisture data of black locust plantations in the Yangjuangou catchment in the Loess Plateau. The influences of a rainfall regime change on soil moisture and water balance were also explored. Three meteorological stations were selected (Yulin, Yan'an, and Luochuan) along the precipitation gradient to detect the effects of rainfall spatial variability on the soil moisture and water balance. The results showed that soil moisture tended to be more frequent at low levels with decreasing precipitation, and the ratio of evapotranspiration under stress in response to rainfall also changed from 74.0% in Yulin to 52.3% in Luochuan. In addition, the effects of a temporal change in rainfall regime on soil moisture and water balance were explored at Yan'an. The soil moisture probability density function moved to high soil moisture in the wet period compared to the dry period of Yan'an, and the evapotranspiration under stress increased from 59.5% to 72% from the wet period to the dry period. The results of this study prove the applicability of the stochastic model in the Loess Plateau and reveal its potential for guiding the vegetation restoration in the next stage.

scholarly journals Assessing the Effectiveness of Supplemental Irrigation to Improve Soil Moisture in an Arid Ecosystem with an Emphasis on Climate Change: A Case Study from the State of Kuwait

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9104
Author(s):  
Ahmed Alqallaf ◽  
Bader Al-Anzi ◽  
Meshal Alabdullah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Arid Ecosystems ◽  
Arid Ecosystem ◽  
Supplemental Irrigation ◽  
The State Of Kuwait

Arid ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change, which is considered one of the serious global environmental issues that can cause critical challenges to the hydrological cycle in arid ecosystems. This work focused on assessing the effectiveness of supplemental irrigation to improve the actual soil moisture content in arid ecosystems and considering climate change impacts on soil moisture. The study was conducted at two fenced protected sites in Kuwait. The first site is naturally covered with Rhanterietum epapposum, whereas the other study site is a supplemented irrigated site, containing several revegetated native plants. The results showed that supplemental irrigation highly improved soil moisture (∆SM) during the winter season by >50%. However, during the summer season, the rainfed and irrigated site showed low ∆SM due to the high temperature and high evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We also found that ∆SM would negatively get impacted by climate change. The climate change projection results showed that temperature would increase by 12%–23%, ET would increase by 17%–19%, and precipitation would decrease by 31%–46% by 2100. Such climate change impacts may also shift the current ecosystem from an arid to a hyper-arid ecosystem. Therefore, we concluded that irrigation is a practical option to support the ∆SM during the low-temperature months only (spring and winter) since the results did not show any progress during the summer season. It is also essential to consider the possibility of future shifting in ecosystems and plant communities in restoration and revegetation planning.

Characterization of extreme meteo-hydrological events in the Alpine Region: historical picture and future scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Pesce ◽  
Larisa Tarasova ◽  
Ralf Merz ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Alberto Viglione
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Alpine Region ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
River Flood

<p>In the European Alps, climate change has determined changes in extreme precipitation and river flood events, which impact the population living downstream with increasing frequency. The objectives of our work are:</p><ol><li>to determine what types of precipitation extremes and river flood events occur in the Alpine Region, based on their generating mechanisms (e.g., frontal convergence storms, convective storms, snow-melt floods, rain-on-snow floods, short and long rain floods, flash floods, ...)</li> <li>to determine the spatial and seasonal distribution of these event types (e.g., their dependence on elevation, geographical location, catchment size, ...) and how precipitation extremes relate to the floods they produce (e.g., the role of snow precipitation and accumulation)</li> <li>to determine whether the event type distribution is changing and will change in the future (e.g., due to climate change).  </li> </ol><p>To these aims, we will compile and analyze historical time series of precipitation and discharge in order to identify events in terms of intensity, duration, and spatial extent. We will use the ETCCDI indices as a measure of the precipitation distribution and hydrograph separation techniques for flow events, following the methodology of Tarasova et al. (2018). We will then characterize each event in terms of generation mechanisms. Furthermore, we will analyze the frequency and magnitude of the different event types in different locations and time of the year and determine whether clusters exist by applying automatic techniques (e.g. K-means clustering algorithm). Finally, we will correlate statistics of precipitation and flood event types with climate indices related to large scale atmospheric circulation, such as Atmospheric Blocking, NAO, etc. (Ciccarelli et al. 2008). Results will be then used for the projection of future storm and flood scenarios.</p><p>We will first apply the methodology in Piedmont by comparing the station-based time series with the NWIOI dataset (ARPA Piemonte) and reanalysis datasets by ECMWF (ERA5, ERA5-Land). We will use a rainfall-runoff model at the daily and sub-daily timescale, through calibration at the regional scale, useful for the simulation of soil saturation and snowpack. We expect to find a statistical correlation between the different datasets, but with changing statistical features over space and time within the single datasets. We aim to provide a detailed picture of the different types of events according to the spatial location and season. The results will be useful, from a scientific perspective, to better understand storm and flood regimes and their change in the Alpine Region, and, from a practical perspective, to better mitigate the risk associated with the occurrence of extreme events.      </p><p>Ciccarelli, N., Von Hardenberg, J., Provenzale, A., Ronchi, C., Vargiu, A., & Pelosini, R. (2008). Climate variability in north-western Italy during the second half of the 20th century. Global and Planetary Change, 63(2-3), 185-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.03.006</p><p>Tarasova, L., Basso, S., Zink, M., & Merz, R. (2018). Exploring controls on rainfall-runoff events: 1. Time series-based event separation and temporal dynamics of event runoff response in Germany. Water Resources Research, 54, 7711–7732. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022587</p>

scholarly journals The spatiotemporal patterns of surface soil moisture in Northeast China based on remote sensing products

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 708-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingming Zheng ◽  
Kai Zhao ◽  
Yanling Ding ◽  
Tao Jiang ◽  
Shiyi Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Surface Soil ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Surface Soil Moisture ◽  
The Past ◽  
Warming Rate

Northeast China (NEC) has become one of China's most obvious examples of climate change because of its rising warming rate of 0.35 °C/10 years. As the indicator of climate change, the dynamic of surface soil moisture (SSM) has not been assessed yet. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of SSM in NEC using a 32-year SSM product and found the following. (1) SSM displayed the characteristics of being dry in the west and wet in the east and decreased with time. (2) The seasonal difference was found for the temporal dynamics of SSM: it increased in summer and decreased in spring and autumn. (3) For all four regions studied, the temporal dynamics of SSM were similar to those of the whole of NEC, but with different rates of SSM change. Moreover, SSM in regions B and D had a lower spatial variance than the other two regions because of the stable spatial pattern of cropland. (4) The change rates for SSM were consistent with that observed for the warming rates, which indicated that SSM levels derived from remote sensing data will correlate with climate change. In summary, a wetter summer and a drier spring and autumn were observed in NEC over the past 30 years.

Land-surface feedbacks on temperature and precipitation in CMIP6-LS3MIP projections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franco Catalano ◽  
Andrea Alessandri ◽  
Wilhelm May ◽  
Thomas Reerink
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Moisture Change ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Systematic Biases ◽  
The Impact

<p align="justify"><span>The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) aims at diagnosing systematic biases in the land models of CMIP6 Earth System Models and assessing the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on climate change. Two components of experiments have been designed: the first is devoted to the assessment of the systematic land biases in offline mode (LMIP) while the second component is dedicated to the analysis of the land feedbacks in coupled mode (LFMIP). Here we focus on the LFMIP experiments. In the LFMIP protocol (van den Hurk et al. 2016), which builds upon the GLACE-CMIP configuration, two sets of climate-sensitivity projections have been carried out in amip mode: in the first set (amip-lfmip-pdLC) the land feedbacks to climate change have been disabled by prescribing the soil-moisture states from a climatology derived from “present climate conditions” (1980-2014) while in the second set (amip-lfmip-rmLC) 30-year running mean of land-surface state from the corresponding ScenarioMIP experiment (O’Neill et al., 2016) is prescribed. The two sensitivity simulations span the period 1980-2100 with sea surface temperature and sea-ice conditions prescribed from the first member of historical and ScenarioMIP experiments. Two different scenarios are considered: SSP1-2.6 (f1) and SSP5-8.5 (f2).</span></p><p align="justify"><span>In this analysis, we focus on the differences between amip-lfmip-rmLC and amip-lfmip-pdLC at the end of the 21st Century (2071–2100) in order to isolate the impact of the soil moisture changes on surface climate change. The (2071-2100) minus (1985-2014) temperature change is positive everywhere over land and the climate change signal of precipitation displays a clear intensification of the hydrological cycle in the Northern Hemisphere. Warming and hydrological cycle intensification are larger in SSP5-8.5 scenario. Results show large differences in the feedbacks between wet, transition and semi-arid climates. In particular, over the regions with negative soil moisture change, the 2m-temperature increases significantly while the cooling signal is not significant over all the regions getting wetter. In agreement with Catalano et al. (2016), the larger effects on precipitation due to soil moisture forcing occur mostly over transition zones between dry and wet climates, where evaporation is highly sensitive to soil moisture. The sensitivity of both 2m-temperature and precipitation to soil moisture change is much stronger in the SSP5-8.5 scenario.</span></p>

Modelling climate change impacts on glaciers and water resources in China  using OGGM and FUSE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Goldberg ◽  
Louis Kinnear ◽  
Florian Kobierska-Baffie ◽  
Nans Addor ◽  
Helen He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
21St Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Mountainous Regions

<p>Hundreds of millions of people depend strongly on hydrological inputs in the mountainous regions of China and central Asia. Glacier runoff is a major contributor to this hydrological forcing, yet many glaciers in the region have undergone mass loss in recent years and this mass loss is expected to continue or increase in response to climatological change. As such it is important to assess the large-scale response of High Mountain Asia glaciers to climate change , and its effects on hydrology. We present here preliminary modelling investigations of glacier change and hydrological impacts in response to high-resolution climate model projections over the 21st century as a component of the project SWARM (Impacts Assessment to Support WAter Resources Management and Climate Change Adaptation for China). Our model chain consists of i) Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), which allows for high-resolution glacier flowline modelling of multiple glaciers, and ii) the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) a modular framework for snow and hydrology modelling, which we used to assemble and run three hydrological models over the whole of China. Both FUSE and OGGM are forced by an ensemble of bias-corrected CORDEX-East Asia regional climate models (in turn forced by CMIP5 general circulation models), and outputs of OGGM are provided to FUSE. We discuss our application of OGGM to 80,000 glaciers in Chinese river catchments; our efforts to calibrate the mass balance model using an expanded set of geodetic mass balance constraints; and finally the projections of glacier, snow and streamflow changes in the 21st century. In particular, we discuss the robustness and uncertainties in the projections as sampled by our multi-model ensemble.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change and Vegetation Restoration on the Hydrological Cycle over the Loess Plateau, China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang ◽  
Kang ◽  
Bu ◽  
Chen ◽  
Gao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Deep Soil ◽  
The Impact

In recent decades, both observation and simulation data have demonstrated an obvious decrease in runoff and soil moisture, with increasing evapotranspiration, over the Loess Plateau. In this study, we employed a Variable Infiltration Capacity model coupled with scenario simulation to explore the impact of change in climate and land cover on four hydrological variables (HVs) over the Loess Plateau, i.e., evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (Runoff), shallow soil moisture (SM1), and deep soil moisture (SM2). Results showed precipitation, rather than temperature, had the closest relationship with the four HVs, with r ranging from 0.76 to 0.97 (p < 0.01), and this was therefore presumed to be the dominant climate-based driving factor in the variation of hydrological regimes. Vegetation conversion, from cropland and grassland to woodland, significantly reduced runoff and increased soil moisture consumption, to sustain an increased ET, and, assuming that the reduction of SM2 is entirely evaporated, we can attribute 71.28% ± 18.64%, 65.89% ± 24.14% of the ET increase to the water loss of SM2 in the two conversion modes, respectively. The variation in HVs, induced by land cover change, were higher than the expected climate change with respect to SM1, while different factors were selected to determine HVs variation in six catchments, due to differences in the mode and intensity of vegetation conversion, and the degree of climate change. Our findings are critical for understanding and quantifying the impact of climate change and vegetation conversions, and provide a further basis for the design of water resources and land-use management strategies with respect to climate change, especially in the water-limited Loess Plateau.

Comparison and validation of the Pyrenean hydrological cycle simulated by different modeling approaches using in-situ and remote sensing data.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pere Quintana-Seguí ◽  
Yvan Caballero ◽  
Roxelane Cakir ◽  
Benoît Dewandel ◽  
Youen Grusson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Mediterranean

&lt;p&gt;In the Mediterranean, mountainous areas are an important source of water resources. Not only do mountains generate most of runoff, but they also store water in soils, as groundwater in aquifers and as snowpack which melts in spring where it can be diverted and used for agriculture. However, climate change and local anthropic processes are changing the behaviour of the Mediterranean mountainous basins, which is adding uncertainty to water management in an area where water management is already difficult. This is the case of the Pyrenees range between France, Spain and Andorra.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hydrological modelling is a valuable tool in order to quantify the continental water cycle and, hence, the water resources as green and blue water. It helps&amp;#160; understanding the underlying processes, simulating variables that are difficult or impossible to observe (e.g. soil moisture, snowpack, or land evaporation), and performing experiments impossible to conduct in the real-world (e.g.: fix the land use in order to assess the impacts of climate change only). However, all that valuable contributions are subjected to model uncertainty,&amp;#160; an issue that should not be neglected and carefully assessed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The PIRAGUA project aims at assessing the water resources of the Pyrenees in the past and in the future. To this aim, different models are being deployed and compared with past dataset in a first step (period September 1979 to August 2014). At the scale of the whole Pyrenees, we use the physical-based and semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and the fully distributed, physically-based, hydrological chain SASER (based on the SURFEX LSM). Furthermore, potential groundwater recharge is also evaluated using a simple water balance approach (RECHARGE). In some selected river basins, including karst systems, the GIS-BALAN hydrogeological model has also been applied. The agreement and disagreement of the models with the observations (when available), and between them, will allow a the detection and quantification of the main sources of uncertainty.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this study, we have first validated the simulated streamflow at a selection of non-influenced gauging stations. Not only have we used the usual scores (i.e. KGE), but we have also validated the model temporal trends, comparing them to the observed ones. This will allow attributing (assess the link with climate change) trend changes in influenced stations, where models simulate the natural flow and observations also include human processes. KGE comparisons shown that the models are able to correctly simulate daily streamflow on most natural sub-basins. Then, the main fluxes (evaporation, drainage and runoff) and stocks (soil moisture and snowpack) of the models have been compared at the sub-basin scale, showing the rate of agreement between them. Finally, some variables have been compared to remote sensing products (evaporation, soil moisture and snow cover), in order to expand the validation to other relevant variables.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in a Typical River Catchment of the Loess Plateau, China

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1553-1561 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Q. Wang ◽  
J. Y. Zhang ◽  
Y. Q. Xuan ◽  
J. F. Liu ◽  
J. L. Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Regional Water

Abstract Global warming will have direct impacts on regional water resources by accelerating the hydrological cycle. Hydrological simulation is an important approach to studying climate change impacts. In this paper, a snowmelt-based water balance model (SWBM) was used to simulate the effect of climate change on runoff in the Kuye River catchment of the Loess Plateau, China. Results indicated that the SWBM is suitable for simulating monthly discharge into arid catchments. The response of runoff in the Kuye River catchment to climate change is nonlinear, and runoff is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than to changes in temperature. The projections indicated that the Kuye River catchment would undergo more flooding in the 2020s, and global warming would probably shorten the main flood season in the catchment, with greater discharge occurring in August. Although projected changes in annual runoff are uncertain, the possibilities of regional water shortages and regional flooding are essential issues that need to be fully considered.

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