scholarly journals Evaluation of thermally driven local winds in a deep Alpine valley in a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juerg Schmidli ◽  
Julian Quimbayo-Duarte
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Valley Wind ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wind Climatology ◽  
Thermally Driven ◽  
Rhone Valley ◽  
Alpine Valleys ◽  
Local Winds

<p>In fair weather conditions, thermally driven local winds are dominant feature of the atmospheric boundary layer over complex terrain. They may dominate the wind climatology in deep Alpine valleys resulting in a unique wind climatology for any given valley. The accurate forecasting of these local wind systems is challenging, as they are the result of complex and multi-scale interactions. Even more so, if the aim is the accurate forecasting of the winds from the near-surface to the free atmosphere, which can be considered a prerequisite for the accurate prediction of mountain weather.  This study investigates the skill of the COSMO model at 1.1 km grid spacing in simulating the thermally driven local winds in the Swiss Alps for a month-long period in September 2016. The study combines the evaluation of the surface winds in several Alpine valleys with a more detailed evaluation of the wind evolution throughout the depth of the valley atmosphere for a particular location in the Swiss Rhone valley, the town of Sion. The former is based on a comparison with observations from the operational measurement network of MeteoSwiss, while the latter uses data from a wind profiler stationed at Sion airport. It is found that the near-surface valley wind is generally well represented for the larger Alpine valleys, except for the Rhone valley at Sion. The reasons for the poor skill at Sion are investigated and shown to be attributable to several factors. One of which is a too strong cross-valley flow reaching down to the valley floor and displacing the daytime up-valley wind. A second factor is the particular local valley geometry. It is shown that an increase of the initial soil moisture and the use a finer horizontal grid spacing results in an improved simulation of the diurnal valley wind at Sion.</p>

Evaluation of thermally driven local winds in the Swiss Alps simulated by a high-resolution NWP model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juerg Schmidli ◽  
Abouzar Ghasemi
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Free Atmosphere ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wind Climatology ◽  
Thermally Driven ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
Alpine Valleys ◽  
Local Winds

<p>In fair weather conditions, thermally driven local winds often dominate the wind climatology in deep Alpine valleys resulting in a unique wind climatology for any given valley. The accurate forecasting of these local wind systems is challenging, as they are the result of complex and multi-scale interactions. Even more so, if the aim is an accurate forecast of the winds from the near-surface to the free atmosphere, which can be considered a prerequisite for the accurate prediction of mountain weather.  This study investigates the skill of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the most current version of the COSMO-DWD model,  at 1.1 km grid spacing in simulating the thermally driven local winds in the Swiss Alps for a month-long period in September 2016. The study combines the evaluation of the surface winds in several Alpine valleys with a more detailed evaluation of the wind evolution throughout the valley depth for a particular site in the Swiss Rhone valley. The former is based on a comparison with observations from the operational measurement network of MeteoSwiss, while the latter uses data from a wind profiler stationed at Sion airport.</p>

scholarly journals Wintertime Subkilometer Numerical Forecasts of Near-Surface Variables in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (2) ◽  
pp. 666-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Vionnet ◽  
Stéphane Bélair ◽  
Claude Girard ◽  
André Plante
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Rocky Mountains ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Canadian Rocky Mountains ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract Numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems operational at many national centers are nowadays used at the kilometer scale. The next generation of NWP models will provide forecasts at the subkilometer scale. Large impacts are expected in mountainous terrain characterized by highly variable orography. This study investigates the ability of the Canadian NWP system to provide an accurate forecast of near-surface variables at the subkilometer scale in the Canadian Rocky Mountains in wintertime when the region is fully covered by snow. Observations collected at valley and high-altitude stations are used to evaluate forecast accuracy at three different grid spacing (2.5, 1, and 0.25 km) over a period of 15 days. Decreasing grid spacing was found to improve temperature forecasts at high-altitude stations because of better orography representation. In contrast, no improvement is obtained at valley stations due to an inability of the model to fully capture at all resolutions the intensity of valley cold pools forming during nighttime. Errors in relative humidity reveal that the model tends to overestimate relative humidity at all resolutions, without improvement with decreasing grid spacing. Wind speed forecasts show large improvements with decreasing grid spacing for high-altitude stations exposed to or sheltered from wind. However, no systematic improvement with decreasing grid spacing is found for all stations, which is similar to previous studies. In addition, the model’s sensitivity at subkilometer grid spacing is investigated by evaluating the effects of (i) accounting for additional drag generated by subgrid orographic features, (ii) considering slope angle and aspect on surface radiation, and (iii) using high-resolution initialization for the surface fields.

scholarly journals Cyclonic and anticyclonic contributions to atmospheric energetics

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoru Okajima ◽  
Hisashi Nakamura ◽  
Yohai Kaspi
Keyword(s):  
Storm Track ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Weather Variability ◽  
Jet Streams ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
Track Dynamics ◽  
New Findings ◽  
Atmospheric Energetics ◽  
Thermally Driven

AbstractMigratory cyclones and anticyclones account for most of the day-to-day weather variability in the extratropics. These transient eddies act to maintain the midlatitude jet streams by systematically transporting westerly momentum and heat. Yet, little is known about the separate contributions of cyclones and anticyclones to their interaction with the westerlies. Here, using a novel methodology for identifying cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices based on curvature, we quantify their separate contributions to atmospheric energetics and their feedback on the westerly jet streams as represented in Eulerian statistics. We show that climatological westerly acceleration by cyclonic vortices acts to dominantly reinforce the wintertime eddy-driven near-surface westerlies and associated cyclonic shear. Though less baroclinic and energetic, anticyclones still play an important role in transporting westerly momentum toward midlatitudes from the upper-tropospheric thermally driven jet core and carrying eddy energy downstream. These new findings have uncovered essential characteristics of atmospheric energetics, storm track dynamics and eddy-mean flow interaction.

scholarly journals On the Use of Rotary-Wing Aircraft to Sample Near-Surface Thermodynamic Fields: Results from Recent Field Campaigns

Sensors ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Temple Lee ◽  
Michael Buban ◽  
Edward Dumas ◽  
C. Baker
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Chemical Properties ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft Systems ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Field Campaigns ◽  
High Level ◽  
Rotary Wing

Rotary-wing small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) are increasingly being used for sampling thermodynamic and chemical properties of the Earth’s atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) because of their ability to measure at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Therefore, they have the potential to be used for long-term quasi-continuous monitoring of the ABL, which is critical for improving ABL parameterizations and improving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models through data assimilation. Before rotary-wing aircraft can be used for these purposes, however, their performance and the sensors used therein must be adequately characterized. In the present study, we describe recent calibration and validation procedures for thermodynamic sensors used on two rotary-wing aircraft: A DJI S-1000 and MD4-1000. These evaluations indicated a high level of confidence in the on-board measurements. We then used these measurements to characterize the spatiotemporal variability of near-surface (up to 300-m AGL) temperature and moisture fields as a component of two recent field campaigns: The Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment in the Southeast U.S. (VORTEX-SE) in Alabama, and the Land Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE) in northern Oklahoma.

scholarly journals Distributed snow and rock temperature modelling in steep rock walls using Alpine3D

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 585-607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Haberkorn ◽  
Nander Wever ◽  
Martin Hoelzle ◽  
Marcia Phillips ◽  
Robert Kenner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Rock ◽  
Depth Data ◽  
Rock Temperature

Abstract. In this study we modelled the influence of the spatially and temporally heterogeneous snow cover on the surface energy balance and thus on rock temperatures in two rugged, steep rock walls on the Gemsstock ridge in the central Swiss Alps. The heterogeneous snow depth distribution in the rock walls was introduced to the distributed, process-based energy balance model Alpine3D with a precipitation scaling method based on snow depth data measured by terrestrial laser scanning. The influence of the snow cover on rock temperatures was investigated by comparing a snow-covered model scenario (precipitation input provided by precipitation scaling) with a snow-free (zero precipitation input) one. Model uncertainties are discussed and evaluated at both the point and spatial scales against 22 near-surface rock temperature measurements and high-resolution snow depth data from winter terrestrial laser scans.In the rough rock walls, the heterogeneously distributed snow cover was moderately well reproduced by Alpine3D with mean absolute errors ranging between 0.31 and 0.81 m. However, snow cover duration was reproduced well and, consequently, near-surface rock temperatures were modelled convincingly. Uncertainties in rock temperature modelling were found to be around 1.6 °C. Errors in snow cover modelling and hence in rock temperature simulations are explained by inadequate snow settlement due to linear precipitation scaling, missing lateral heat fluxes in the rock, and by errors caused by interpolation of shortwave radiation, wind and air temperature into the rock walls.Mean annual near-surface rock temperature increases were both measured and modelled in the steep rock walls as a consequence of a thick, long-lasting snow cover. Rock temperatures were 1.3–2.5 °C higher in the shaded and sunny rock walls, while comparing snow-covered to snow-free simulations. This helps to assess the potential error made in ground temperature modelling when neglecting snow in steep bedrock.

scholarly journals High-resolution fully-coupled atmospheric–hydrological modeling: a cross-compartment regional water and energy cycle evaluation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Fersch ◽  
Alfonso Senatore ◽  
Bianca Adler ◽  
Joël Arnault ◽  
Matthias Mauder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ground Heat Flux ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
Regional Water

<p>The land surface and the atmospheric boundary layer are closely intertwined with respect to the exchange of water, trace gases and energy. Nonlinear feedback and scale dependent mechanisms are obvious by observations and theories. Modeling instead is often narrowed to single compartments of the terrestrial system or bound to traditional viewpoints of definite scientific disciplines. Coupled terrestrial hydrometeorological modeling systems attempt to overcome these limitations to achieve a better integration of the processes relevant for regional climate studies and local area weather prediction. We examine the ability of the hydrologically enhanced version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-Hydro) to reproduce the regional water cycle by means of a two-way coupled approach and assess the impact of hydrological coupling with respect to a traditional regional atmospheric model setting. It includes the observation-based calibration of the hydrological model component (offline WRF-Hydro) and a comparison of the classic WRF and the fully coupled WRF-Hydro models both with identical calibrated parameter settings for the land surface model (Noah-MP). The simulations are evaluated based on extensive observations at the pre-Alpine Terrestrial Environmental Observatory (TERENO Pre-Alpine) for the Ammer (600 km²) and Rott (55 km²) river catchments in southern Germany, covering a five month period (Jun–Oct 2016).</p><p>The sensitivity of 7 land surface parameters is tested using the <em>Latin-Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time</em> (LH-OAT) method and 6 sensitive parameters are subsequently optimized for 6 different subcatchments, using the Model-Independent <em>Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis software</em> (PEST).</p><p>The calibration of the offline WRF-Hydro leads to Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.56 and 0.64 and volumetric efficiencies between 0.46 and 0.81 for the six subcatchments. The comparison of classic WRF and fully coupled WRF-Hydro shows only tiny alterations for radiation and precipitation but considerable changes for moisture- and energy fluxes. By comparison with TERENO Pre-Alpine observations, the fully coupled model slightly outperforms the classic WRF with respect to evapotranspiration, sensible and ground heat flux, near surface mixing ratio, temperature, and boundary layer profiles of air temperature. The subcatchment-based water budgets show uniformly directed variations for evapotranspiration, infiltration excess and percolation whereas soil moisture and precipitation change randomly.</p>

scholarly journals Flash-flood early warning using weather radar data: from nowcasting to forecasting

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1289-1331 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Liechti ◽  
L. Panziera ◽  
U. Germann ◽  
M. Zappa
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Orographic Rainfall ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract. This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel probabilistic radar-based forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the Southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecast for the same catchments. The first probabilistic radar-based forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second probabilistic forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialized with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. We found a clear preference for the probabilistic approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA rather than by a persistent radar QPE for lead times up to eight hours and for all discharge thresholds analysed. The best results were, however, obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain, which was also remarkably skilful even with the highest thresholds. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

scholarly journals Wind plants can impact long-term local atmospheric conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Bodini ◽  
Julie K. Lundquist ◽  
Patrick Moriarty
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Direct Observations ◽  
Stable Conditions ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Central United States

AbstractLong-term weather and climate observatories can be affected by the changing environments in their vicinity, such as the growth of urban areas or changing vegetation. Wind plants can also impact local atmospheric conditions through their wakes, characterized by reduced wind speed and increased turbulence. We explore the extent to which the wind plants near an atmospheric measurement site in the central United States have affected their long-term measurements. Both direct observations and mesoscale numerical weather prediction simulations demonstrate how the wind plants induce a wind deficit aloft, especially in stable conditions, and a wind speed acceleration near the surface, which extend $$\sim 30$$ ∼ 30  km downwind of the wind plant. Turbulence kinetic energy is significantly enhanced within the wind plant wake in stable conditions, with near-surface observations seeing an increase of more than 30% a few kilometers downwind of the plants.

scholarly journals Effect of the uncertainty in meteorology on air quality model predictions

Időjárás ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 125 (4) ◽  
pp. 625-646
Author(s):  
Zita Ferenczi ◽  
Emese Homolya ◽  
Krisztina Lázár ◽  
Anita Tóth
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Model System ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Impact

An operational air quality forecasting model system has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for the area of Hungary and three big cites of the country (Budapest, Miskolc, and Pécs). The core of the model system is the CHIMERE off-line chemical transport model. The AROME numerical weather prediction model provides the gridded meteorological inputs for the chemical model calculations. The horizontal resolution of the AROME meteorological fields is consistent with the CHIMERE horizontal resolution. The individual forecasted concentrations for the following 2 days are displayed on a public website of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. It is essential to have a quantitative understanding of the uncertainty in model output arising from uncertainties in the input meteorological fields. The main aim of this research is to probe the response of an air quality model to its uncertain meteorological inputs. Ensembles are one method to explore how uncertainty in meteorology affects air pollution concentrations. During the past decades, meteorological ensemble modeling has received extensive research and operational interest because of its ability to better characterize forecast uncertainty. One such ensemble forecast system is the one of the AROME model, which has an 11-member ensemble where each member is perturbed by initial and lateral boundary conditions. In this work we focus on wintertime particulate matter concentrations, since this pollutant is extremely sensitive to near-surface mixing processes. Selecting a number of extreme air pollution situations we will show what the impact of the meteorological uncertainty is on the simulated concentration fields using AROME ensemble members.

scholarly journals Evaluation of a Regional Reanalysis and ERA-Interim over East Asia Using In Situ Observations during 2013–14

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (10) ◽  
pp. 2821-2844 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eun-Gyeong Yang ◽  
Hyun Mee Kim
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Regional Reanalysis

AbstractIn this study, the East Asia Regional Reanalysis (EARR) is developed for the period 2013–14 and characteristics of the EARR are examined in comparison with ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis. The EARR is based on the Unified Model with 12-km horizontal resolution, which has been an operational numerical weather prediction model at the Korea Meteorological Administration since being adopted from the Met Office in 2011. Relative to the ERA-I, in terms of skill scores, the EARR performance for wind, temperature, relative humidity, and geopotential height improves except for mean sea level pressure, the lower-troposphere geopotential height, and the upper-air relative humidity. In a similar way, RMSEs of the EARR are smaller than those of ERA-I for wind, temperature, and relative humidity, except for the upper-air meridional wind and the upper-air relative humidity in January. With respect to the near-surface variables, the triple collocation analysis and the correlation coefficients confirm that EARR provides a much improved representation when compared with ERA-I. In addition, EARR reproduces the finescale features of near-surface variables in greater detail than ERA-I does, and the kinetic energy (KE) spectra of EARR agree more with the canonical atmospheric KE spectra than do the ERA-I KE spectra. On the basis of the fractions skill score, the near-surface wind of EARR is statistically significantly better simulated than that of ERA-I for all thresholds, except for the higher threshold at smaller spatial scales. Therefore, although special care needs to be taken when using the upper-air relative humidity from EARR, the near-surface variables of the EARR that were developed are found to be more accurate than those of ERA-I.

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