Prediction model to delirium in hospitalized elderly people
Introduction: Delirium has a high prevalence in hospitalized elderly patients. This is due to low hospital detection and the absence of a screening instrument. Objective: evaluate predictive variables in the development of delirium in na in-hospital environment. Methods: Cross-sectional study. Data collection was carried out between 2015-2016, with a sample of 493 elderly people. The variables used were age, sex, the reason for hospitalization, Identification of Elderly at Risk (ISAR), delirium during hospitalization using the Confusion Assessment Method, frailty using the Edmonton Scale, the impact of comorbidities by the Charlson Index and hospital immobility. Predictive variables were identified through logistic regression. Results: 469 elderly people were taken. The presence of delirium during hospitalization was mostly observed between 80 and 89 years old (n = 12), female (n = 16), with the most common reasons for hospitalization due to fractures (n = 6) and accident brain vascular (n = 11), 79% chance of surviving in one year using the Charlson Index (n = 11) and with ISAR> 2 (n = 26). There are important associations for the development of delirium for patients who have a 98% chance of surviving in one year (p = 0.05) and with ISAR <2 (p = 0.027), with a 34% increased chance and 38%, respectively. Conclusion: It is observed that, by the results, the predictive variables of inhospital delirium are patients with a 98% chance of survival and with ISAR <2.