PREDICTABILITY OF TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT

2017 ◽  
Vol 72 (0) ◽  
pp. 7-18
Author(s):  
Jan Burnewicz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Freight Transport ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Transport Capacity ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
The Past ◽  
Freight Traffic ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Intuitive Method

This article is a generalization of the author’s experience gathered when preparing transport development forecasts in Poland over the past quarter of a century. These forecasts have proved to be less accurate when prepared using only quantitative and strictly mathematical methods, and more accurate when the change indicators have been estimated using the expert (intuitive) method. The problem of inaccuracy of economic and transport forecasts can be explained by the notion of predictability, which makes it possible to divide phenomena into those that are more difficult or easier to predict and to identify phenomena that are not predictable at all. The existence of unpredictable phenomena has its source in influencing the reality of systemic determinants and random factors that have no bearing on the timeline. Predicting the need for transport requires the use of different methods for freight transport and different methods for the transport and mobility of people. The source of changes in the volume of the transport demand are predominantly fluctuations in the intensity of production and consumption, and changes in the need to cover space and, to a lesser extent, this source is the generation of new demand through the additional supply of services and transport capacity. Owing to the increasingly comprehensive statistics from past periods it is possible to establish that the correlation between the GDP and freight traffic is much weaker than previously thought. The demand for transport and mobility of people is less dependent on economic activity, and more dependent on demographic changes, the lifestyle of the population and the preferences in choosing the means of transport.

Real Bills, The Gold Standard, and Central Bank Policy

1976 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 503-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Craig West
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Real World ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Gold Standard ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
International Exchange ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Past

Students of the origins and accomplishments of government regulation of economic activity have open suspected that the laws on which regulation is based were addressed to problems and conditions of the past that no longer prevailed, or — what is worse — assumptions about the “real world” that are highly unrealistic. This is Professor West's main conclusion about the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, especially as regards its discount rate and international exchange policies.

Moral economy: What’s in a name

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
James G Carrier
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Moral Economy ◽  
Moral Value ◽  
The Past ◽  
Empty Symbol ◽  
The Social ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Moral Economic

The idea of moral economy has been increasingly popular in the social sciences over the past decade, given a confusing variety of meanings and sometimes invoked as an empty symbol. This paper begins by describing this state of affairs and some of its undesirable corollaries, which include unthinking invocations of the moral and simplistic views of some sorts of economic activity. Then, referring especially to the work of EP Thompson and James C Scott, this paper proposes a more precise definition of moral economy that roots moral economic activity in the mutual obligations that arise when people transact with each other over the course of time. It thus distinguishes between the moral values that are the context of economic activity and those that arise from the activity itself. The solution that the paper proposes to the confused state of ‘moral economy’ can, therefore, be seen as terminological, as the sub-title suggests, but it is intended to have the substantive benefits of a better approach to economic activity and circulation and a more explicit and thoughtful attention to moral value.

Economic complexity and embedding of regional economies’ structures

2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Mikhail Afanasiev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Economic Complexity ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Strong Sector

 The research focuses on the development of localized specialization and economic diversification theories. Our task is forecasting of the emergence of new strong sectors in the region. On the basis of probabilistic and statistical modeling the model which allows estimating the probability of appearing a new strong sector in the region taking into account characteristics of economic structure is constructed. The possibility of building such a model is based on the assumption that the emergence and development of sectors is largely determined by the evolution of past economic activity. The model uses the indicators of embedding structures of the strong sectors in the regional economies is introduced by the authors. These indicators are based on the probabilistic interpretation and properties of the elements of the matrix, by which economic complexity is estimated following the traditional approach. The probability of originating a strong sector in the structure for each region is estimated. Based on sorting the sectors according to the value of these probabilities and assessments of their potential contribution to socio-economic development expert assessment of the feasibility of developing a new strong sector in the region can be made. The results show that sectors’ introduction and generation in the regional economy is largely due to the evolution of the past economic activity.    

scholarly journals The impact of Musharakah financing on the monetary policy in the Islamic economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Hatem Adela
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to formulating the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, using the development of the conventional economics, theoretical and mathematical methods. Design/methodology/approach The study based on the inductive and mathematical methods to contribute to economic theory within the methodological framework for Islamic Economics, by using the return rate of Musharakah rather than the interest rate in influence the economic activity and monetary policy. Findings Via replacement, the concept of the interest rate by the return rates of Musharakah. It concludes that the central bank can control the monetary policy, economic activity and the efficient allocation of resources by using the return rates of Musharakah through the framework of Islamic economy. Practical/implications The study is a contribution to formulate the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, where it investigates the impact of return rates of Musharakah on the money market and monetary policy, by the mathematical methods used in the conventional economy. Also, the study illustrates the importance of further studies that examine the methodological framework for Islamic Economics. Originality/value The study aims to contribute to formulating the Islamic economic theory, through the return rate of Musharakah financing instead of the interest rate, and its effectiveness of the monetary policy. As well as reformulating the concepts of the investment function, the present value and the marginal efficiency rate of investment according to the Islamic economy approach.

scholarly journals FORECAST OF THE REFORMATION OF THE KRASNOYARSK RESERVOIR COASTAL ZONE IN THE KURTAK VILLAGE

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-278
Author(s):  
G.Yu. Yamskikh ◽  
A.V. Kozhukhovsky ◽  
K.V. Marusin ◽  
E.A. Fedorova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Similar Type ◽  
Coastal Processes ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Reformation ◽  
Long Term Monitoring ◽  
Verification Of Models ◽  
The Village ◽  
Term Monitoring

The article presents the analysis and prediction of coastal processes at the site of the Krasnoyarsk reservoir in the village of Kurtak where there are the most intensive processes of coastal reshaping. Over the past 50 years, the coast has receded here by an average of 350 m and continues to actively collapse at a speed of 3-5 m per year. Despite the fact that the intensity of coastal processes in this area has significantly decreased (mainly due to the general decrease in the level of the Krasnoyarsk reservoir), the rate of retreat of the shore is still high. However, it can be concluded that for the researched area the coastal reshaping does not pose a real threat to economic activity in the next 30 years. The article tested various methods of forecasting coastal processes, selected the most appropriate for the shores of a similar type. Verification of models was carried out on the basis of data of long-term monitoring of the site under consideration, which gave the chance to compare results of forecasts on different techniques to real retreat of the coast on this site.

scholarly journals Lessons on the Economics of Pandemics from Recent Research

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Sewon Hur ◽  
Michael Jenuwine
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Government Intervention ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Past ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Economic Studies

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a dual public health and economic crisis. Many economic studies in the past few months have explored the relationship between the spread of disease and economic activity, the role for government intervention in the crisis, and the effectiveness of testing and containment policies. This Commentary summarizes the methods and findings of a number of these studies. The economic research conducted to date shows that adequate testing and selective containment measures can be effective in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, and in the absence of adequate testing capabilities, optimal interventions involve social distancing and other lockdown measures.

scholarly journals Trans-regional rice supply paradigm reveals unsustainable water use in China

Water Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Wu ◽  
Min Wang ◽  
Kirti Avishek
Keyword(s):  
Water Use ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Southwest China ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Consumption Pattern ◽  
Sustainable Food ◽  
The Past ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Global Population

Abstract Rice is an important staple food for more than half of the global population and one of the largest water consumers on earth. Improving the efficiency of water embedded in rice production and supply could have great implications for food and water security. This study starts from Yunnan, a traditional rice producing and consuming province in southwest China, and analyses its rice supply structure and dynamics, together with embedded water footprints (WFs) of three other regions: Northeast China, South and Southwest China and Southeast Asia. The results show that Yunnan has been under through drastic food change in the past decades, leading to increasing production and supply gap. Yunnan is found to have the least WF (778.2 m3/t) for rice production across the study regions, while Northeast China consumes the highest blue WF (364.6 m3/t) and blue to total WF ratio (97.7%). The study indicates that Northeast China is at risk of groundwater deficit due to rice production and export and the current rice production and consumption pattern is inefficient. The study suggests that policies for groundwater extraction, water resource price and international trade need to be in place to ensure sustainable food supply and water use at regional and national levels.

scholarly journals The Methodology of Assessing the Criminogenity of Administrative Territorial Units

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 351-366
Author(s):  
Ainagul Karipova ◽  
Kuanysh Baltabaev ◽  
Yerbol Omarov ◽  
Talgat Makhanov
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Statistical Information ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
Spectral Scale ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Legal Statistics

The authors study the issues of applying mathematical methods to the assessment of the criminogenic levels in administrative-territorial units of the Republic of Kazakhstan. They have analyzed a considerable volume of statistical information for the past 20 years and, as a result, have identified the highest and the lowest number of registered crimes. Several indices were used to develop an index of criminogenity (ranging) of regions: crime level, graveness of crimes, size of population in a certain area. They recommend to define the public danger of crimes as a numerical value expressed in abstract units - points - based on the average sanctions, an average punishment imposed by a court and an average rating assigned by experts (researchers, practical specialists). The authors have studied modern Kazakh and foreign publications on the use of mathematical methods in criminology. The results of assessment according to three methods of ranging - legislative (legal), court, and expert - are presented in the tables. There is a correlation between legislative (legal) and court assessments. Calculations were used to determine the criminal status of some territorial units, which makes it possible to compare the number of crimes and the degree of their public danger for the population in the over-16 age group. In order to analyze the administrative-territorial units of the same type, the cities have been grouped according to the size of population. The presented methodology is reflected in the spectral scale on the «Map of Criminal Infringements» of the Committee for Legal Statistics and Special Records of the Prosecutor Generals Office for the Republic of Kazakhstan; it takes into account the distribution of cities into four groups which, in the end, will make it possible to obtain a maximally objective assessment of the criminal situation and to take preventive measures.

scholarly journals The Main Trends in the Development of Production and Consumption of Fish Products in the Sakhalin Region

REGIONOLOGY ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-110
Author(s):  
Dmitry A. Pitilyak ◽  
Irina E. Karyakina ◽  
Diana A. Zakharchenko
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Statistical Information ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Consumer Market ◽  
Fish Products ◽  
The Past ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Total Diet

Introduction. The study is of relevance as there has been a decrease in catch over the past few years in the Sakhalin Region. This decline must be assessed in terms of its impact on the economic performance of enterprises and household budgets in the region. The objective of this study is to analyze and evaluate the trends in the development of production and consumption of fish products in the Sakhalin Region. Materials and Methods. The study has analyzed data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System on the production and consumption of fish products in the Sakhalin Region. The graphical and comparative methods have been used, which made it possible to compare the dynamics of production and consumption of fish products as well as to show that the transfer of production trends to the consumer market has a disproportionately marginal impact. Results. The contradictory results of the development of the industry have been revealed: while there has been a decrease in the number of organizations operating in the industry, the number of personnel involved in processing, the volume of production and sales of canned fish, there has been an increase in the profitability of sales and prices for delicious seafood. The negative fact is that consumption of fish products has reduced in the Sakhalin Region, fish products ranking only 7th (by mass) in the total diet. The identified imbalances and negative trends in the production of fish products have also indirectly transferred to the sphere of consumption. Discussion and Conclusion. In the Sakhalin Region, one of the leading fishing regions in Russia, the conditions for satisfying the corresponding demand have not been fully created, especially in terms of affordable prices for fish products in the market that do not overcome the inertia of slowly growing incomes. The scientific and practical significance of the research materials consists in the comprehensive nature of the study on the processes of production and consumption of fish products.

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