How to Estimate Security – Problem Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (33) ◽  
pp. 217-240
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Pilarski
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Research Problem ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Security Level ◽  
Problem Analysis ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Security Problem ◽  
Descriptive Method

Background: The article presents a method of estimating the security level which indicates how probable it is for a phenomenon to occur. Objectives: The author attempts to answer the question: How do we estimate security? Decision makers usually need percentage showing the probability of an incident taking place in the future. This information is needed in the first place, later decision makers can use more descriptive information. Methods: The research problem concerns the assessment of security using the estimation method. Depicting security in numbers is difficult, thus the descriptive method is also usually applied. The estimation method facilitates the assessment. It is helpful since it is partly done by calculation and partly by guessing or approximation. Based on a case study analysing whether a terrorist attack may occur, the author also used tools such as averaging expert predictions, scenario analysis and risk analysis. Results: This article provides a view on forecasting security, which results in a method of estimating the level of security. Conclusions: The author presents an approach which allows to initially estimate the security level of the analyzed phenomenon in a relatively short period of time.

scholarly journals The influence of leadership in creating creativity and developing performance: تأثير القيادة في خلق الابداع و تطوير الأداء

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Mohamed Hassan Hafez
Keyword(s):  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Historical Narrative ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Administrative Leadership ◽  
Administrative Leaders ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Administrative Leader ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Descriptive Method

The research dealt with the influence of leadership in creating creativity and developing performance. Case study (Saudi Company for Hotels and Tourism Areas). The research relied on the following hypotheses: Administrative leadership plays a key role in the development of the performance of the employees of Saudi Hotels and Tourism Areas. There is a positive relationship between the ownership of the administrative leaders of the Saudi Company for Hotels and Touristic Areas of the personality and characteristics of the administrative leader and the ownership of managers. A statistically significant relationship between the manager's practices (the leader) and the impact of these practices on the loyalty of employees and their desire to work. The descriptive descriptive method and the historical narrative were used in preparing the study. The researcher treated the data obtained from the field study statistically using the SPSS. The study reached many conclusions, the most important of which is to prove the validity of the above hypotheses. The research also reached many recommendations that can be of benefit to the decision makers in the private and public sectors, the most important of which is: increasing the interest in the humanitarian aspect in dealing between presidents and subordinates. Study the conditions of employees in the Saudi Company for Hotels and Tourist Areas and work to solve the problems facing them. Work on improving the environment of the administrative environment in Saudi Hotels and Tourist Areas.

Theoretical, methodological and practical issues of choice models

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-37
Author(s):  
Bharat P. Bhatta
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Choice ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Choice Models ◽  
Discrete Choice Models ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Model Formulation ◽  
Random Utility Maximization ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Method Model

This paper analyzes and synthesizes the fundamentals of discrete choice models. This paper alsodiscusses the basic concept and theory underlying the econometrics of discrete choice, specific choicemodels, estimation method, model building and tests, and applications of discrete choice models. Thiswork highlights the relationship between economic theory and discrete choice models: how economictheory contributes to choice modeling and vice versa. Keywords: Discrete choice models; Random utility maximization; Decision makers; Utility function;Model formulation

Environment and atmosphere of night tourism based on the local wisdom: A case study of Berastagi

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Selly Veronica ◽  
Nurlisa Ginting ◽  
AmyMarisa
Keyword(s):  
Field Observation ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Innovative Strategy ◽  
Depth Interview ◽  
Social Environmental ◽  
Descriptive Method

Night tourism development comes up as an innovative strategy for tourism development in this current intense competition. There are four main elements in night tourism, namely economic, social, environmental, and night atmosphere. Berastagi is the most popular tourist destination in Karo Regency, Sumatera Utara, Indonesia, which already have night tourism destination but unfortunately undeveloped yet. Night tourism development in Berastagi must be with the local wisdom approach to maximize its benefit. Karonese as the majority ethnic of the local community in this area potential to be developed on its night tourism. This paper only analyzes the environmental and night atmosphere aspects in Berastagi’s night tourism, which based on local wisdom. Qualitative primary data from field observation and depth interview results have been analyzed by using the descriptive method. The study shows that involving local wisdom in developing the environment and night atmosphere can give the typical identity for the night tourism in Berastagi.Night Tourism

Peculiarities of family roles distribution in the marrige subsystem

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (152) ◽  
pp. 57-64
Author(s):  
O. O. Oliinyk ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Research Methods ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Married Couples ◽  
Research Problem ◽  
Psychological Climate ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Problem Analysis ◽  
Family Roles ◽  
Marital Relations ◽  
The Family

Changing the system of family values, views of the society on the significance and functioning of the family institution contribute to the transformation of marital role relationships in modern families. The already formed model of role interaction, the ability of spouses to define and clearly distribute family roles and to treat them responsibly is the important factors in building constructive marital relations and creating a favorable psychological climate in the family. Objective. The research deals with the analysis of the essence of the “family role” concept and the classification of family roles; experimental definition and analysis of the main types of family roles in marital relations. Methods. Theoretical research methods were used to solve the research problem: analysis of scientific psychological literature, generalization method, systematization of scientific information. To solve the second part of the set objective, the empirical research methods were used, such as: conversation, psychodiagnostic method “Distribution of roles in the family” by Yu.Ye. Alioshyna, L.Ya. Hofman, O.M. Dubrovska, and also the method of processing and quantitative and qualitative interpretation of results. The research was conducted during September-October 2020. The study involved 11 married couples (husband and wife) with different marital experience of 22 people aged 25 to 47 years (Kyiv). All the couples have children aged 1 to 20 years. The results of an empirical study of the peculiarities of family roles distribution showed that the roles of entertainment organizer (63.64 %), master (mistress), (72.73 % and 63.64 %), the family subculture organizer (54, 55 % and 45.45 %) women and men share almost equally; the roles of educator and “psychotherapist” is more typical for women (90.91 % and 81.82 %); The role of sexual partner and the partner responsible for material support is more often performed by men (90.91 % and 72.73 %). The prospects for further research are seen in the study of role interaction in the parental families of adolescents and young people as a prerequisite for their future family roles.

THE ROLE OF LOCAL SOCIAL INSTITUTION IN COMMUNITY EMPOWERMENT IN BANDUNG REGENCY, INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helly Ocktilia
Keyword(s):  
Leadership Style ◽  
Social Institution ◽  
Community Empowerment ◽  
Board Members ◽  
Supportive Leadership ◽  
Community Institutions ◽  
The Social ◽  
Descriptive Method

This study aims to gain a deeper understanding of the existence of the local social organization in conducting community empowerment. The experiment was conducted at Community Empowerment Institution (In Indonesia it is referred to as Lembaga Pemberdayaan Masyarakat/LPM). LPM Cibeunying as one of the local social institution in Bandung regency. Aspects reviewed in the study include the style of leadership, processes, and stages of community empowerment, as well as the LPM network. The research method used is a case study with the descriptive method and qualitative approach. Data collection was conducted against five informants consisting of the Chairman and LPM’s Board members, village officials, and community leaders. The results show that the dominant leadership style is participative, in addition to that, a supportive leadership style and directive leadership style are also used in certain situations. The empowerment process carried out per the stages of the empowerment process is identifying and assessing the potential of the region, problems, and opportunities-chances; arranging a participative activity plan; implementing the activity plan; and monitoring and evaluating the process and results of activities. The social networking of LPM leads to a social network of power in which LPM can influence the behavior of communities and community institutions in utilizing and managing community empowerment programs. From the research, it can be concluded that the model of community empowerment implemented by LPM Cibeunying Village is enabling, empowering, and protecting.

scholarly journals Investigation into the Cause of Iron-Related Clogging of Groundwater Bores Used for Viticulture in the Limestone Coast, South Australia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 683
Author(s):  
Birte Moser ◽  
Meruyert Beknazarova ◽  
Harriet Whiley ◽  
Thilini Piushani Keerthirathne ◽  
Nikki Harrington ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Clear Correlation ◽  
Problem Analysis ◽  
Persistent Problem ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Iron Manganese

Iron-related clogging of boreholes, pumps and dripper lines is a significant and costly problem for irrigators worldwide. The primary cause of iron-related clogging is still debated. Previous studies have described complex interactions between biological clogging and inorganic iron/manganese oxide precipitation. This case study examined groundwater bores used for viticulture irrigation in the Limestone Coast region, a highly productive wine growing area in the SE of South Australia. Iron clogging of bore screens, pumps and dripper systems has been a persistent problem in the region and the issue is perceived to be growing, with irrigators suggesting the widespread introduction of iron-related bacteria (IRB) through drilling equipment to be the root cause of the problem. Analysis of the groundwater microbiology and inorganic chemistry found no apparent correlation between the presence of IRB and the clogging status of wells. In fact, IRB proved to be widespread throughout the limestone aquifer. However, a clear correlation could be found between clogging affected bores and the redox potential of the groundwater with the most severely affected bores strongly oversaturated in respect to iron oxide minerals. Elevated dissolved concentrations of Fe(II) thereby tended to be found in deeper bores, which also were generally more recently drilled. Following decades of less than average rainfall, a tendency to deepen bores in response to widespread declines in water levels has been documented for the SE of South Australia. The gradually widening clogging problem in the region is postulated to be related to the changes in climate in the region, with irrigators increasingly driven to rely on deeper, anoxic iron-rich groundwater resources.

scholarly journals Integrated Impact Assessment for Sustainable Hydropower Planning in the Vjosa Catchment (Greece, Albania)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1514
Author(s):  
Rebecca Peters ◽  
Jürgen Berlekamp ◽  
Ana Lucía ◽  
Vittoria Stefani ◽  
Klement Tockner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Hydropower Plants ◽  
Hydropower Planning

Mitigating climate change, while human population and economy are growing globally, requires a bold shift to renewable energy sources. Among renewables, hydropower is currently the most economic and efficient technique. However, due to a lack of impact assessments at the catchment scale in the planning process, the construction of hydropower plants (HPP) may have unexpected ecological, socioeconomic, and political ramifications in the short and in the long term. The Vjosa River, draining parts of Northern Greece and Albania, is one of the few predominantly free-flowing rivers left in Europe; at the same time its catchment is identified an important resource for future hydropower development. While current hydropower plants are located along tributaries, planned HPP would highly impact the free-flowing main stem. Taking the Vjosa catchment as a case study, the aim of this study was to develop a transferable impact assessment that ranks potential hydropower sites according to their projected impacts on a catchment scale. Therefore, we integrated established ecological, social, and economic indicators for all HPP planned in the river catchment, while considering their capacity, and developed a ranking method based on impact categories. For the Vjosa catchment, ten hydropower sites were ranked as very harmful to the environment as well as to society. A sensitivity analysis revealed that this ranking is dependent upon the selection of indicators. Small HPP showed higher cumulative impacts than large HPP, when normalized to capacity. This study empowers decision-makers to compare both the ranked impacts and the generated energy of planned dam projects at the catchment scale.

scholarly journals Boundaries Between Research Ethics and Ethical Research Use in Artificial Intelligence Health Research

2021 ◽  
pp. 155626462110027
Author(s):  
Gabrielle Samuel ◽  
Jenn Chubb ◽  
Gemma Derrick
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Health Research ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Societal Impact ◽  
The Past ◽  
Research And Innovation ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Responsible Research ◽  
Past Half

The governance of ethically acceptable research in higher education institutions has been under scrutiny over the past half a century. Concomitantly, recently, decision makers have required researchers to acknowledge the societal impact of their research, as well as anticipate and respond to ethical dimensions of this societal impact through responsible research and innovation principles. Using artificial intelligence population health research in the United Kingdom and Canada as a case study, we combine a mapping study of journal publications with 18 interviews with researchers to explore how the ethical dimensions associated with this societal impact are incorporated into research agendas. Researchers separated the ethical responsibility of their research with its societal impact. We discuss the implications for both researchers and actors across the Ethics Ecosystem.

Do different types of organizational trust matter to employees’ commitment? A case study from Oman

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Moaz Gharib ◽  
Kamaal Allil ◽  
Omar Durrah ◽  
Mohammed Alsatouf
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Employee Commitment ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Design Strategies ◽  
Food Sector ◽  
Final Sample ◽  
Organisational Trust ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Practical Implications

PURPOSE: Trust is vital to all positive relationships. This empirical study explores the effect of three facets of organisational trust (trust in supervisors, in co-workers and in the organisation) on employee commitment in Salalah Mills Co. in the food industry in the Sultanate of Oman. METHODOLOGY: Data were collected via an online survey sent to all employees working in Salalah Mills Co., Oman. The final sample consisting of 102 responses with a response rate of 54 percent were analysed using multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: The findings revealed that two facets of organisational trust (trust in co-workers and trust in supervisors) were found to have a significant positive effect on employee commitment, while trust in the organisation was found to have no significant effect. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Trust in supervisors and trust in co-workers directly affect employee commitment. Therefore, managers should consider promoting both of these forms of trust to enhance employee commitment. VALUE: Although previous studies have examined the link between organisational trust and employee commitment, a focus on Oman and the food sector has been particularly rare, so this study offers new insights. The findings will help decision-makers on design strategies and policies to improve employee commitment through trust.

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