Methodology for Assessment of Economic and Environmental Losses in High Threat Objects

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Mihails Urbans
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Doctoral Thesis ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Operational Life ◽  
Efficiency Theory ◽  
Risk Scenario

The Doctoral Thesis is dedicated to the development of methodology for assessing economic and environmental losses in high-risk objects. Effective assessment methods increase the safety levels and help prepare for potential accidents involving uncontrolled release of a large energy stock and predict the extent of potential loss in the event of an emergency. As part of this paper, modelling of the hazards causing accidents and compiling global emergency statistics has been carried out. The author has developed a useful, innovative methodology for the calculation of environmental and economic losses, so that all stakeholders, without investing large time resources, can obtain reliable and reasonable results. The current risk assessment methods have been summarised in the paper, and their shortcomings and benefits have been evaluated. The correlation between the depreciation of objects and the increase in the frequency of emergency situations have been analysed in the paper, as well as the proposals for reducing risks during the operational life of the site have been developed and the proposed methodology for assessing losses caused by a potential accident has been offered. The hazard assessment methodology proposed by the author is based on a probit function model that so far has been used very rarely in Latvia. As part of the Doctoral Thesis, the probit model constants have been tested using different scenarios for possible accidents in the calculation. The methodology algorithm developed by the author is innovative and consists of 6 core blocks: identification of the risk scenario; parameters depending on the surroundings and external meteorological conditions of the high-risk object (HRO); possible risk scenarios and modelling of their probability; identification of negative environmental effects; calculation of probability using the probit model and the assessment of economic and environmental losses. The executing algorithm of the proposed core blocks is closely linked to the efficiency theory as a sequence of operations and the adoption of effective management decisions, based on the procedure carried out, where different types of data are collected. Using the proposed methodology developed by the author, it is possible to establish the level of risk at the objects concerned and to foresee potential economic and environmental losses in the event of an accident. The proposed methodology can be used both at the design stage of the installation and in the existing high-risk objects. This paper provides a detailed example of the calculation that can be used as a sample.

scholarly journals Material Origins of Accelerated Operational Wear of RD-33 Engine Blades

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Kozakiewicz ◽  
Stanislaw Jóźwiak ◽  
Przemysław Jóźwiak ◽  
Stanisław Kachel
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Construction Material ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Strength Analysis ◽  
Jet Engine ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Low Pressure Turbine ◽  
Propulsion Unit ◽  
Selection Of

The structural and strength analysis of the material used to construct such an important engine element as the turbine is of great significance, both at the design stage as well as during tests and expertises related to emergency situations. Bearing in mind the conditions above mentioned, the paper presents the results of research on the chemical composition, morphology and phased structure of the metallic construction material used to produce the blades of the high and low pressure turbine of the RD-33 jet engine, which is the propulsion unit of the MiG-29 aircraft. The data obtained as a result of the material tests of the blades allowed, on the basis of the analysis of chemical composition and phased structure, to determine the grade of the alloy used to construct the tested elements of the jet engine turbine. The structural stability of the material was found to be lower in comparison with engine operating conditions, which manifested itself as a clear decrease in the resistance properties of the blade material. The results obtained can be used as a basis for analyzing the life span of an object or a selection of material replacements, which enable to produce the analyzed engine element.

scholarly journals VALIDATION OF RISK INDICATORS IN ASSESSING THE SAFETY OF ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT BOILER HOUSE IN THUNDERSTORM

Fire Safety ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 24-31
Author(s):  
Yu. Rudyk ◽  
O. Nazarovets ◽  
I. Golovatchuk ◽  
N. Beznos
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Electrical Equipment ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Lightning Protection ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Boiler Environment

Introduction. Today requires the introduction and arrangement of modern enterprises automation of the technological process using various electronic and electrical equipment. The breakdown of one sensor leads to a stoppage of the technical process and thousands of losses. This equipment is sensitive to impulse overvoltages that occur for various reasons, as well as when hit by lightning. There is a misconception that the danger of lightning arises only when struck directly, forgetting about the socalled secondary phenomena, namely electromagnetic and electrostatic pulses. Pulse overvoltage is a short-term increase in voltage above the allowable value. Lightning protection systems are designed and designed to protect objects from dangerous lightning.Purpose. Given the automation of the process and the saturation of boilers with electronic and electrical equipment, there is a high risk of lightning and high potentials, which can lead to large-scale accidents. The purpose of this article is to validate the risk indicators for the boiler environment that occur during a thunderstorm.Methods. The use of various methods of calculation, assessment and ordering of risks during the design and layout of the system allows to implementation system lightning protection of buildings, equipment and people. General principles of risk assessment for the boiler environment must take into account: risk and determine the need for protection; the contribution of various risk components to the overall risk; the effect of various protection measures to reduce risk; selection of protection measures taking into account their economic efficiency.Results. Neglecting the high risk of a dangerous event leads to excessive damage and m irreparable losses, with which a person or community will not be able to achieve sustainable development. Therefore, it is a comprehensive, systematic approach to achieving safety, starting from the assessment stage, should take into account both the characteristics of the hazard, including a fire in the relevant facilities, and personal, the individual risk of death or injury. Lightning is an unpredictable natural event, no one in the world fully understands the mechanism of lightning and it is impossible to provide 100% protection under any circumstances under any standardization. For this purpose, the following calculations are given: loss of human life, including injuries; loss of the ability to provide public services; losses of cultural heritage and economic value of the building (structure) and economic losses required for the installation and operation of the system. Based on the obtained data, it is seen how the reduction of each risk is achieved depending on the proposed solution and the economic effect in general.Conclusion. Statistics on deaths and injuries from lightning hazards, losses from damage to property, buildings and struc-tures confirm that in risk assessment, which is standardized in DSTU EN 62305-2, it is necessary to introduce a methodology that would meet the conditions of Ukraine. The arrangement of the lightning protection system depends on the risk assessment, the reaction of the owner, the influence of control bodies. Therefore, it is important to decide on fire protection measures in lightning risk assessment procedures, but it can also be taken regardless of the results of the risk assessment where there is a desire to avoid unacceptable risk. Equipment that is often associated with two different services, e.g. power lines and data lines suffer a lot of surge damage. This case is not covered by the RX risk component. However, appropriate protection measures can be selected and established (see IEC 62305-4).

Analysis of the development of drifting ice formations impact on marine facilities assessment methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 119-130
Author(s):  
I. G. Silina ◽  
V. A. Ivanov ◽  
T. G. Ponomareva ◽  
S. V. Yakubovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Methods ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Offshore Pipelines ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
High Resource ◽  
Significant Loading ◽  
Ice Loads ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Active Exploration ◽  
Cost Of Construction

The high resource potential of the Arctic determines the active exploration and development of these territories, in particular the Arctic continental shelf. The development of offshore fields is directly related to the issues of marine communications construction and operation in freezing waters. They are associated with minimization of environmental risks, reducing the cost of construction work, and ensuring reliable operation of underwater systems. The ice loads, especially, loads from ice gouging are considered one of the most significant loading conditions for such systems. Deformations of the soil around the pipeline during gouging may cause unacceptable deformations as a result of bending, which may lead to emergency situations. The article discusses the main features of ice gouging and the development of research and assessment methods for ice gouging impact on offshore pipelines. The article also provides the analysis of the research methods, their applications and limitations, and points out further research directions.

scholarly journals Estimasi potensi kerugian ekonomi akibat wasting pada balita di indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-132
Author(s):  
Brigitte Sarah Renyoet ◽  
Hildagardis Meliyani Erista Nai
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Potential ◽  
Children Under Five ◽  
Under Five ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Processing Data

Background: Wasting cases for children under five are currently increasing, the high risk of malnutrition continues to increase so that it has an effect on increasing the prevalence of nutritional problems which results in decreased productivity.Objectives: To estimate the economic potential lost due to wasting in children under five.Methods: Descriptive research, by processing data from various related agencies which are all in the form of secondary data. Calculate using the Konig (1995) formula and a correction factor from Horton's (1999) study. The research activities are carried out starting July 2018 until September 2018.Results: Nationally based on the prevalence of wasting in children under five in 2013 amounting to IDR 1.042 billion - IDR 4.687 billion or 0.01% - 0.06% of the total GDP of Indonesia.Conclusion: The prevalence of high wasting problems can increase the potential for economic losses and affect the economy of a country especially in developing countries and one of them is Indonesia.

Damage Assessment of Service Industry Caused by Songhuajiang River Pollution Incident

2012 ◽  
Vol 518-523 ◽  
pp. 1128-1132
Author(s):  
Yu Hou ◽  
Tian Zhu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Service Industry ◽  
River Pollution ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Economic Losses

Taking Songhuajiang River pollution accident as an example, the paper analyzes all aspects of damage for service industry and proposes the damage assessment methods. The economic losses are estimated finally.

Treatment of Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) by American Hematology-Oncology Providers (AHOP's): Changes in 1st-Line Treatment Preferences Over Time in Relation to Cytogenetics & Survival Data From Randomized Studies (2006–2010),

Blood ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. 3816-3816
Author(s):  
James M. Foran ◽  
Michael G. Heckman ◽  
Michael E. Williams ◽  
Joanne Willey ◽  
Mark R. Green
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Survival Data ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Treatment Preferences ◽  
Line Treatment ◽  
Business Relationship ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Risk Scenario ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Abstract 3816 Background: The hypomethylating agent (HMA) azacitidine (AZA) significantly improves survival compared to conventional care regimens for patients (pts) with “higher risk” MDS (including both Int-2 & High-Risk according to IPSS) (Lancet Oncol 10:223, 2009 – first presented Dec 2007); a more recent trial of the HMA decitabine (DEC) vs. best supportive care in pts with similar IPSS failed to show a significant survival advantage (JCO 29:1987, 2011 – first presented Dec 2008). Since 2006 the immunomodulatory drug lenalidomide (LEN) has been FDA-approved for treatment of anemia in lower-risk MDS pts & deletion of chromosome 5q (Del5q). However, no phase III survival data have been presented with LEN in patients with higher risk MDS, nor is it an expert consensus 1st-line treatment recommendation in higher risk setting (NCCN Guidelines 2011). We sought to evaluate the change in 1st-line treatment preference with these 3 approved agents for higher risk MDS among AHOP's from 2006–2010 in relation to pertinent survival data as it became available. Methods: Between 2006–10 we studied time dependent prescribing preferences of n=1960 AHOP's in a prospective annual research series. Approx. 330–450 individual AHOP's participated in any given year. AHOP demographic data was available from 2007–10 (n=1510); they were predominantly male (77%), working in Community setting (79% vs. 21% Academic), & in small group practice (≤5 providers −59%, including 18% “solo practice”). All regions were represented (NE 23%; SE 22%; Central 19%; SW 13%; West 23%). Most (57%) were >10yrs out from training, and only 18% were <5yrs out from training. A total sample was studied using an extensively tested, live, case-based, market research vehicle to anonymously acquire data. AHOP's were presented with a scenario of an older pt with higher risk MDS (High-Risk 2006–09; Int-2 in 2010) & specific cytogenetic abnormalities, then indicated their preferred treatment from up to 10 relevant available/emerging 1st-line therapeutic options. In each, the scenario was of a pt age 63 yrs (2006–08) or 68–70 yrs (2009–10); with symptomatic anemia & pancytopenia; no response to darbepoietin; with RAEB-2 - excess Bone Marrow blasts 11% (2006–09) to 16% (2010); complex (2006–09) or normal cytogenetics (2010); and both without and then with Del5q in same scenario (2008–10). The distribution of treatment choices was compared over time & according to Del5q status using a chi-square test. Results are shown in Table below. In NON-Del5q scenario, a clear & significant shift toward greater AZA preference by almost 2-fold (from 40% to 78%) was apparent after 2007 (P<0.0001). For same scenario With Del5q (2008–2010), treatment preferences changed significantly over time (P<0.0001), with lower 1st-line AZA and greater DEC & LEN preference (the latter >40% after 2008). In addition, a marked and significant increase in 1st-line LEN preference was observed when AHOP's were presented with the same higher-risk scenario each yr but With-Del5q vs. NON-Del5q (p<0.0001). For “Non Del 5q” vs. “With Del 5q” scenarios, p-values result from a chi-square test, testing for any difference in the distribution of treatment choices over time. *(p<0.0001) - LEN With-Del5q vs. NON-Del5q in higher-risk scenario each year, 2008–2010. Conclusions: Significant changes in 1st-line treatment preferences of AHOPs for pts with higher-risk MDS are apparent in the findings from 2008–10, the time frame following the availability of randomized phase III data demonstrating a survival advantage for AZA therapy. When the presence of a Del5q abnormality is added to the same higher-risk scenario, treatment preferences change dramatically with a significantly increased preference for LEN (despite no available ph III survival data supporting this approach) and for DEC (despite a “negative” ph III trial). These findings suggest important educational gaps concerning the available phase III survival data supporting first line prescribing preferences for patients with higher risk MDS. Efforts to address this gap via evidence-based approaches are warranted. Disclosures: Foran: Celgene: Honoraria; Xcenda: Honoraria. Williams:Xcenda: Honoraria; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Independent DSMB member, Research Funding. Willey:Xcenda: Employment; Celgene: Business relationship; Eisai: Business relationship. Green:Xcenda: Employment; Celgene: Business relationship; independent DSMB; Eisai: Business relationship.

Seroprevalence of brucellosis in bovines of Chhattisgarh, India

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lata Jain ◽  
Vinay Kumar ◽  
Sameer Chaturvedi ◽  
Goutam Roy ◽  
Sukhadeo B. Barbuddhe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Dairy Industry ◽  
Zoonotic Disease ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Serum Samples ◽  
Factors Associated

Brucellosis is an important zoonotic disease causing reproductive problems and abortions in bovines leading to huge economic losses to the dairy industry. Seroepidemiology and risk factors associated with brucellosis were investigated in cattle and buffaloes of Chhattisgarh, India. A total of 374 serum samples from bovines were collected randomly from 94 villages of six districts of Chhattisgarh state with different attributes and were screened by i-ELISA for the detection of antibodies. The overall true seroprevalence for brucellosis was observed to be 14.17%. Brucellosis was significantly more prevalent in animals of organized farms, cross bred, age above 7 years, clinically ailing ones particularly cases of abortion and repeat breeding compared to apparently health animals. The finding represented a major impact on animal health and productivity as well as a high risk to the human population.

Prospective System Assessments Used to Enhance Patient Safety: Case Studies From a Collaboration of Engineers and Hospitals in Southwest Washington State

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garill A. Coles
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Patient Care ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Healthcare Industry ◽  
System Assessment ◽  
Southwest Washington

It is no secret that healthcare, in general, has become an increasingly complicated mixture of technical systems, complex processes and intricate skilled human interactions. Patient care processes have followed this same trend. The healthcare industry, itself, has acknowledged that it is fraught with high-risk and error prone processes and cite medication management systems, invasive procedures and diagnostic methods. Complexity represents opportunity for unanticipated events, process failures and undesirable outcomes. Traditionally when a patient care process fails, accountability was focused on the individual clinician error. However, increasing, healthcare is following the lead of other high-risk industries (e.g. chemical, aerospace, nuclear, etc.) that give attention to the characteristics the overall system that contribute to the failure. The focus has shifted to identification of systemic weaknesses and vulnerabilities. Increasing the healthcare industry is using prospective system assessment methods to evaluate the high-risk systems and processes. This paper describes results of collaboration between engineers and community hospitals in Southwest Washington State between 2002 and 2007 in applying prospective system assessment methods to a range of the high-risk healthcare systems and processes. The methods used are Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis and Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The two case studies presented are: 1) an interhospital FMEA on patient transfer and 2) a risk assessment of mental health patients who present themselves in a hospital Emergency Department.

scholarly journals Seroprevalence of human Brucellosis and associated risk factors among high risk occupations in Mbeya Region of Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederick D. Sagamiko ◽  
John B. Muma ◽  
Esron D. Karimuribo ◽  
Alfred A. Mwanza ◽  
Ruth L. Mfune ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay ◽  
Human Brucellosis ◽  
Associated Risk Factors ◽  
Abattoir Workers

AbstractBackgroundBrucellosis is an infectious zoonotic disease that affects humans, livestock and wildlife.MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted in Mbeya region between November 2015 and January 2016 to investigate the seroprevalence of human brucellosis and identify associated risk factors among individuals in risky occupations in Mbeya Region. A total of 425 humans from six occupational categories were serially tested for Brucella antibodies using the Rose Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) and competitive Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (c-ELISA), for screening and confirmation, respectively. A questionnaire survey was administered to participants collect epidemiological data.ResultsThe overall seroprevalence among the high risk occupational individuals was 1.41% (95% CI: 0.01-0.03). Seroprevalence among the different occupations were as follows: shepherds 1.33% (95% CI: 0.14-0.22); butcher men 5.26% (95% CI: 0.10-0.17) and abattoir workers 1.08% (95% CI: 0.39-0.49). Seroprevalence was noted to vary according to occupation type, milk consumption behaviour, age and sex. Butcher men recorded the highest seroprevalence (5.0%) while individuals who consumed unboiled milk had a higher seroprevalence (1.56%) compared to those who drunk boiled milk. High seropositivity (2.25%) was observed among the age group of 1-10 years while male individuals had a higher seroprevalence (1.41%) than females (0%). Butcher men were at higher risk of exposure compared to other professions.ConclusionOur findings show the presence of brucellosis in occupationally exposed individuals in Mbeya region. There is need to sensitize the exposed individuals in order to reduce the risk of acquiring Brucella infections from animals and animal products This also calls for public health awareness about the disease, and implementation of control measures that will prevent further spread of brucellosis within and outside the study area..Author summaryBrucellosis is a bacterial zoonosis that has evolved to establish itself as an occupational and food-borne disease Worldwide. It is responsible for huge economic losses incurred by livestock keepers and poses a public health risk to humans in most developing countries. In Tanzania, which has the 3rd highest cattle population in Africa, many studies that have been done show that brucellosis exists in livestock, especially in cattle and wildlife. However, very few studies have reported on human brucellosis. The disease has been reported to occur in humans who have direct exposure to cattle or cattle products like livestock farmers, abattoir workers, veterinarians, shepherds and farm workers in many developing countries. A few studies in Tanzania have reported seroprevalences among these high-risk occupations; however, the disease has not been fully described in Mbeya region. This study was therefore aimed at filling these information gaps and contributing to the existing body of knowledge.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Technology-Enhanced Teaching and Assessment Methods of Undergraduate Preclinical Dental skills: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Clinical Trials

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khaled Khalaf ◽  
Mohamed El-Kishawi ◽  
Shahd Mustafa ◽  
Sausan Al Kawas
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Clinical Trials ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Dental Students ◽  
Risk Of Bias ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
Controlled Clinical Trials ◽  
Randomized Controlled Clinical Trials ◽  
Randomized Controlled

Abstract Background: To investigate the effectiveness of technology-enhanced teaching and assessment methods of undergraduate preclinical skills in comparison to conventional methods. Methods: A comprehensive search strategy was implemented using both manual and electronic search methods, including PubMed, Wiley, ScienceDirect, SCOPUS, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. The search and selection of articles that met the inclusion criteria were carried out in duplicates. A Cochrane data extraction form for RCTs was used to extract the relevant information from all included articles. Risk of bias of all included articles was assessed independently by two authors using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Results: A total of 19 randomized controlled clinical trials met the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. The majority of the studies included in this review have a high risk of bias mainly due to incomplete data, lack of blinding of the examiners, and due to other biases, such as small sample sizes, not accounting for additional hours of training, and the lack of calibration of examiners grading the preparations. Conflicting results were reported in the included studies with regards to whether there were differences between the intervention and control groups in the outcome measure of quality of students’ performance. A meta-analysis could not be done for this study due to the heterogeneity among the included studies.Conclusions: Technology-enhanced teaching and assessment tools used in preclinical skills training of undergraduate dental students have the potential to improve students’ performance. However, due to the conflicting outcomes reported in the 19 studies included in this systematic review and their high risk of bias, better quality studies are required to find a definitive answer to the research question of this systematic review.

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