A Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered Susceptible (SEIRS) Model for the Transmission of Tuberculosis

In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model was proposed and analyzed to understand the dynamics of tuberculosis based on the SEIRS model. The disease-free equilibrium, the endemic equilibrium, and their stabilities were examined. The R0 (basic reproduction number) was derived using the Next Generation Matrix method and its sensitivity analysis showed that the birth rate and infectious rate were the most sensitive parameters of R0. The behaviour of exposed individuals at the latent period with varied treatment rates were examined through numerical simulation. From the analysis carried out, the effect of variations of the treatments of latent TB shows that it affects the disease burden. This implies that testing and treatment of latent TB are important in preventing it from becoming infectious. The re-infection rate was examined to see the effect it had both on the recovered and susceptible populations. The study concludes by recommending the extension of the model to an age structured model with co-infection with another respiratory infectious disease like COVID-19. Keywords: Epidemiology; Latent TB treatment; Basic Reproduction Number; sensitivity analysis; numerical simulation

Epidemiological profile study of COVID-19 in West African countries: Nigeria, Senegal, Mauritania, Cape Verde and Mali

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic was first reported in West Africa on 27 February 2020 in Nigeria. It subsequently spread to other countries in the region. The objective of this study is to analyze the epidemiological profile of COVID-19 in West Africa from the first reported case to 31 January 2021. Method: We publicly used available data from reliable sources and from the COVID-19R package. We used epidemic curves to describe the trends in the daily evolution of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in West Africa and specifically in the five countries. The reproduction rate and evolution rates were calculated from these trends. Results: As of 31 January 2021, West Africa had 342,938 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 4,496 deaths. Nigeria had 131,242 cases with 1,586 deaths. Senegal had 26,523 cases with 628 deaths. The case-fatality rate in Mali was 4.08% and the attack rate in Cape Verde was 2587 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. In Nigeria, Senegal, Mauritania and Mali, the epidemic curves supported by the evolution rates showed an increase in confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 during December 2020 and January 2021 compared to the last two months. The effective reproduction rates (Re) inferred a slowdown in virus transmission (Re < 1) in these countries except for Senegal. Conclusion: The results showed that COVID-19 was still circulating in some West African countries in late 2020 and early 2021. By improving the health system and with context-specific public health interventions and vaccination, these countries should effectively control COVID-19. Keywords: Epidemiology, COVID-19, West Africa, Countries

Epistemology of Basic Concepts of Spiritual and Physical Thaharah: Analysis of The Benefits of Ablution Spiritually and Physically

This article aims to explain the purpose of purification in various forms. Purification outwardly and inwardly will be obtained when following the rules given by the Qur'an and Hadith. Purification (thaharah) is one of the legal conditions in performing Salat. When we start performing an act of worship such as Salat, many of us are not right or wrong when taking ablution or sometimes after removing many unclean impurities. I did a literature study with a descriptive analysis approach and found that three ways can be pure: bathing, ablution, and tayammum. The tools used for bathing and ablution are water and for tayammum using soil (dust). As we know, Tayammum can only be done when there is no water and in a state of pain. Purification also removes not only the contaminated feces but also the inner. In purifying, using absolute water or using soil (dust) must meet certain conditions. By doing purification according to the provisions of Rasulullah, then we will get external and internal purity. Keywords: Epidemiology, Concept, Spiritual, Physical, Thaharah

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Singapore Experience. A Review of the First Eight Months

As of 27 October 2020, there have been 57,980 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Singapore, with 28 fatalities. To summarise the Singapore experience in managing and containing COVID-19 based on available published data and from relevant sources, a review of literature using research databases such as PubMed and OVID Medline, along with non-peer-reviewed articles and other sources, was conducted with the search terms ‘COVID-19’ and ‘Singapore’. Research conducted in Singapore has provided insight into the clinical manifestations and period of infectivity of COVID-19, demonstrated evidence of pre-symptomatic transmission, linked infection clusters using serological tools, and highlighted aspects of hospital-based environmental contamination. It has also provided guidance for diagnostic testing and has described immune and virologic correlates with disease severity. Evidence of effectiveness of containment measures such as early border control, rigorous contact training, and calibrated social distancing measures have also been demonstrated. Singapore’s multipronged strategy has been largely successful at containing COVID-19 and minimising fatalities, but the risk of re-emergence is high. Keywords: Epidemiology, management, prevention, transmission

INCIDÊNCIA DE ÓBITOS POR MENINGITE NO BRASIL E NO TOCANTINS ENTRE 2010 E 2015

Introdução: A meningite é caracterizada pela inflamação das meninges, possuindo diversos fatores causais, infecciosos ou não. A etiologia viral é a mais incidente, entretanto a mais importante do ponto de vista de mortalidade é a bacteriana. Embora a região Norte do Brasil seja considerada zona endêmica de doenças infectocontagiosas, poucos são os estudos publicados que abordam fatores envolvidos na disseminação populacional desses agravos. O objetivo desse trabalho foi o estabelecimento e comparação dos coeficientes de incidência (CI) de óbitos pela doença no Brasil e Tocantins entre 2010 e 2015. Material e Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo epidemiológico e transversal realizado com dados obtidos do total de notificações no SINAN, entre os períodos de 2010 a 2015. Resultados: Em 2010, no Brasil, houve 3003 casos relatados de doença meningocócica, com CI de 617 óbitos/100.000 habitantes. Já em 2015, o CI foi de 243 óbitos/100.000 habitantes. No Tocantins, em 2010, houve 62 óbitos da doença meningocócica, em 2011, 63 óbitos, em 2012, 73 óbitos, em 2013, 74 óbitos, em 2014, 71 óbitos e em 2015, 33 óbitos. Resultando, nos respectivos CI: 4,4; 4,4; 5,0; 5,0; 4,7 e 2,2 óbitos/100.000 habitantes. Discussão: Os achados apontam para uma superioridade proporcional do Brasil em relação ao Tocantins no número de casos, assim como de óbitos. Isso pode ser em detrimento, tanto de no Brasil haver regiões endêmicas e, portanto, com maior taxa de detecção, como por subnotificação no caso do Tocantins, que é um fator recorrente nos estados da região Norte do Brasil. Conclusão: o CI de óbitos por meningite no Tocantins é inferior ao do Brasil e esse CI se manteve estável no recorte temporal analisado. Este estudo sugere a importância de relatos de casos na região, além do protagonismo da eficiência dos sistemas de detecção e notificação para o planejamento do serviço assistencial. Palavras-chave: Epidemiologia; Infecções Meningocócicas; Infectologia; Medicina Tropical; Meningite. ABSTRACT Introduction: Meningitis is characterized by the inflammation of the meninges, having several causal factors, infectious or not. The viral etiology is the most frequent, however the most important from the point of view of mortality is bacterial. Although the northern region of Brazil is considered an endemic area of infectious diseases, few published studies address factors involved in the dissemination of these diseases. The objective of this study was the establishment and comparison of the incidence coefficients (IC) of deaths by the disease in Brazil and Tocantins between 2010 and 2015. Material and Methods: This is an epidemiological and cross-sectional study with data obtained from total notifications in SINAN between 2010 and 2015. Results: In 2010, in Brazil, there were 3003 reported cases of meningococcal disease, with a IC of 617 deaths / 100,000 inhabitants. By 2015, the IC was 243 deaths / 100,000 inhabitants. In Tocantins, in 2010, there were 62 deaths from meningococcal disease in 2011, 63 deaths in 2012, 73 deaths in 2013, 74 deaths in 2014, 71 deaths and in 2015, 33 deaths. Resulting, in the respective ICs: 4.4; 4.4; 5.0; 5.0; 4.7 and 2.2 deaths / 100,000 inhabitants. Discussion: The findings point to a proportional superiority of Brazil in relation to Tocantins in the number of cases, as well as deaths. This may be detrimental to the fact that in Brazil there are endemic regions and, therefore, with a higher rate of detection, as by underreporting in the case of Tocantins, which is a recurring factor in the northern Brazilian states. Conclusion: The IC of meningitis deaths in Tocantins is lower than in Brazil and this IC remained stable in the temporal cut analyzed. This study suggests the importance of case reports in the region, as well as the role of the detection and notification systems for the planning of care services. Keywords: Epidemiology; Infectious Disease Medicine; Meningitis; Meningococcal Infections; Tropical Medicine.

Epidemiological Aspects Of Microcephal Cases And Central Nervous System Changes In Newborn

Objective: To describe the epidemiological situation of cases of microcephaly and / or Central Nervous System changes in newborns in the Northeast region of Brazil. Methods: Epidemiological, descriptive study with secondary data. Epidemiological data were collected in the Notifiable Diseases Information System, with cumulative data from the years 2015 and 2016. They were processed in the statistical software SPSS - version 21 and analyzed from the descriptive statistics. Results: It was evidenced that, in the Northeast region, 6,481 cases of microcephaly and / or central nervous system disorders were reported. Of these, the states of Pernambuco and Bahia stand out with a higher percentage of reported and confirmed cases. About the reported deaths, the states of Pernambuco, Ceará and Bahia prevailed. Of the cases of deaths confirmed, the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba. Conclusion: it is imperative to carry out an ongoing population awareness campaign on the prevention of ZIKAV and how important it is to follow up the pregnant woman during prenatal care. In addition to the constant updating of health professionals regarding microcephaly and the creation of more services to support the NB and their families. Therefore, it is suggested to carry out more studies to understand the reason for the increase in reported cases of microcephaly, being possible to draw up specific strategies for each locality in order to reduce the cases of this disease. Keywords: Epidemiology; Microcephaly; Central Nervous System; Children.

Headaches and the quality of life in adolescents

Headache is a common problem in the general population and, in particular, in children and adolescents and may negatively influence the quality of life of young. Thus, this study aimed to analyze, through a systematic review, the epidemiology of headache and association with the quality of life of adolescents. Initially, a search was conducted in the databases PubMed, Lilacs and Scielo using the keywords "epidemiology", "headache", "quality of life", "adolescents". Data were analyzed by two researchers independently. Were selected, after applying the inclusion criteria, 10 articles. Was observed that headache can cause a substantial impact on physical and mental health of adolescents, mainly among females. There is a shortage of longitudinal research and studies involving children with headache. In addition, the headache was related to emotional disturbances, depression, anxiety and difficulties of interaction related to family and school, which may cause a departure from the everyday activities and consequently decrease the quality of life of those suffering from headache.

Perfil Epidemiológico de Pacientes Renais Crônicos em Tratamento Conservador em um Hospital Escola do Sul de Minas/ Epidemiological Profile of Chronic Renal Failure Patients on Conservative Treatment in a Hospital in Southern School of Minas

Objetivo: Determinar o perfil epidemiológico dos pacientes com Doença Renal Crônica em tratamento conservador no ambulatório do Hospital Escola de Itajubá. Materiais e Métodos: Estudo descritivo, de corte transversal, de abordagem quantitativa. Realizado com 171 pacientes atendidos em tratamento conservador no ambulatório de nefrologia no período de janeiro de 2012 a dezembro de 2013. A coleta objetivou caracterizar idade, sexo, raça, estado civil e procedência. Também foram avaliados dados do primeiro atendimento como: valores de ureia e creatinina, o grau de DRC, a etiologia e o número de retorno. Resultados: Dos doentes renais crônicos avaliados, 50,3% eram do sexo masculino, 88% da raça branca, 54,4% casados e a maioria (70,8%) possuía faixa etária prevalente >60 anos. A maioria dos atendidos, 98,5% pertence a microrregião de referência. Quanto a dados de primeira consulta, o diabetes mellitus foi a principal etiologia (38%). Os valores de ureia e creatinina acima da referência preconizada foi observado na maioria dos pacientes e o grau III de DRC em 31% dos casos. O número médio de retornos após a primeira consulta foi de três retornos em 25,13% dos pacientes. Conclusão: A pesquisa permitiu o conhecimento do perfil epidemiológico dos portadores de DRC em tratamento conservador. Os achados reforçam a necessidade de implementação de políticas voltadas para promoção e prevenção à saúde com divulgação de mais programas de controle para minimizar o surgimento de novos casos da DRC. Palavras-chave: Epidemiologia. Doença Renal Crônica. Tratamento. ABSTRACT.Objective: Determine the epidemiological profile of patients with Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) on conservative treatment at the Hospital Escola de Itajubá. Materials and Methods: A retrospective, descriptive, cross-sectional study of quantitative approach. It was conducted with 171 patients who were treated in conservative treatment at the nephrology clinic from January 2012 to December 2013. The collection aimed to characterize age, sex, race, marital status and origin. We also evaluated data from the first service as: urea and creatinine values, the degree of CKD the etiology and the number of return. Results: Among the chronic renal patients evaluated, 50.3% were male, 88% Caucasian, 54.4% were married and the majority (70.8%) was the most prevalent age group> 60 years. Most of the patients 98.5% belong to micro region of reference. As the first appointment data, diabetes mellitus was the major cause (38%). The urea and creatinine values above the recommended reference was observed in the majority of patients and the DRC grade III in 31% of cases. The average number of returns after the fisrt visit was three return in 25.13% of patients. Conclusion: The research gave us the knowledge of the epidemiological profile of patients with CKD on dialysis. The findings reinforce the need to implement policies for health promotion and prevention with more disclosure of control programs to minimize the appearance of new cases of CKD. Keywords: Epidemiology. Chronic Kidney Disease.Treatment.