METHODICAL ASPECTS OF DEVELOPING TOOLKIT MODELING AND INFORMATION SUPPORT FOR THE FORMATION OF FORECASTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (4) ◽  
pp. 102-109
Author(s):  
M.M. NIZAMUTDINOV ◽  

According to Rosstat for 2020, the population of Russia as a result of its natural movement decreased by 688.7 thousand people. If the birth rate in relation to 2019 decreased by 3.0%, then mortality increased by 17.9%. For many regions of the country (oddly enough, in the first place of its European part), the situation turned out to be even more difficult. At the same time, heterogeneous factors had an impact on each other - a change in the age structure of the population, the COVID-19 pandemic, a decrease in real income, etc. Under these conditions, the problem of obtaining accurate predictive assessments of the situation development in order to develop government policies to improve it is updated. Objectively necessary is the introduction of relevant information systems built on the basis of integrated economic and mathematical models. In this regard, the article discusses the development and application of modern tools for analyzing and predicting the development of territorial systems, including demographic aspects. It is indicated that a significant factor is the development of the social infrastructure of the territory. A system of criteria and indicators are proposed to assess the impact of its level of development on demographic processes. In particular, areas such as health care, education, culture and leisure, housing, trade and services are considered. An approach to the formation of integral indicators in various areas of life of society and an example of developing regression equations based on them is presented. It is noted that in different regions of the country, the degree of influence of the level of development of social infrastructure on demographic processes may differ significantly, which requires accounting within the framework of the model being formed. The possibility and need to build a decision support system based on the obtained model complex and is defined by such a toolkit in the strategic development management system of the region. The key stages of developing tools are described. The results obtained can be used as part of modeling changes in the demographic potential of regions in the context of the transformation of the territorial settlement system.

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Oreshnikov ◽  
Marsel Nizamutdinov

The current situation in the field of demographic development in Russia is characterized by a combination of many heterogeneous factors, the overwhelming majority of which are negative. Thus, the risk is posed by the aging of the population, changes in reproductive behavior, an increase in the demographic burden, a decrease in real incomes of a significant share of the population, etc. Socio-economic factors and living conditions of the population have a significant impact on demographic processes. The article examines the issues of assessing the impact of the level of development of social infrastructure on demographic processes in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. It is pointed out that the current situation is characterized by a high degree of differentiation in all key indicators of regional development, including the relationship between the parameters of demographic development and the development of the social infrastructure of the region. An approach to the grouping of regions, taking into account the interval estimation of each of the considered parameters, is proposed. This approach has been tested on three key parameters of population movement – fertility, mortality and migration. The obtained results of the grouping of regions were used in the formation of a set of regression equations describing the dependence of the values of the parameters of population movement on the level of development of social infrastructure and the group numbers assigned to the regions. In the course of the study, rating assessments of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation were obtained from the standpoint of the parameters under consideration and a mid-term forecast of changes in the population growth rate was formed. Thus, the authors have shown that social infrastructure, acting as a component of the general regional infrastructure, with which people directly interact and which, itself being a reflection of the development of the regional economy, directly affects the reproductive and migratory behavior of Russian citizens.


2011 ◽  
pp. 381-394
Author(s):  
Nada Raduski

In the article is going to presented the ethnic picture of the population of the Serbia and the ethnodemographic changes in period 1991-2002, caused by migration, natural movement, changed declaration on national affiliation, as well as some political and socio-economic factors. Ethnocentric migrations (voluntary and forced) primarily influenced on the change of ethnic structure of the Serbia, in the sense of creating nationally more homogeneous region, having in mind the national structure of refugee- population. On the other side, the emigration of some other nationalities which migrated to their mother countries due to political and economic reasons influenced on the ethnic structure, too. Spatial distribution of population according to nationality is an important aspect of demographic development conditioned primarily by ethnically differentiated natural growth and migrations, but also with the impact of numerous other factors. In Serbia is present an exceptional concentration and homogenization of population of certain nationalities. Due to specific territorial distribution and ethnic domination of relevant national minorities in border parts of the country, the question of their status and territorial-political organization gives special severity and significance to the minority question in Serbia. Having in mind that Serbia is a multiethnic and multiconfessional state, the protection of minorities rights and good inter-ethnic relations are necessary for peace, stability and democratic development of the Serbia and the Balkans region.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-242
Author(s):  
Leonid Rybakovsky ◽  
Vladimir Savinkov ◽  
Natalia Kozhevnikova

The article discusses possible combinations of the impact on the dynamics of the population of migration growth (decline) and natural decline (increase). Variants of combinations with the corresponding values of natural and migration movements are shown using examples of the demographic dynamics of Russia. Reliable information about the migration movement of the population refers only to the time that began in the 50s. It is distributed over periods that differ in the nature of the impact of the reproductive and migration components on demographic dynamics. During these periods spanning seventy years, the country's population increased by almost 44 million. In the first 25 years, there was a migration decline, more than offset by natural population growth. Then migration, along with natural movement, acted as a component of population dynamics. Due to natural growth, the population increased to the 1951 level. by 33.8 million people. The migration component accounted for 10.6 million people. Their ratio was 3/4 to 1/4. It is shown that in the second half of the tenth years of the twenty-first century, Russia entered a difficult demographic time for it, aggravated by the fact that by now in the new abroad the migration potential oriented towards Russia has significantly decreased


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Dmytro Vasylkivskyi ◽  
Serhii Matiukh ◽  
Olha Matviiets ◽  
Ihor Lapshyn ◽  
Vitalina Babenko

The conflict in the Eastern part of Ukraine and the growing geopolitical tensions have had a significant impact on the economy and society of the country. As a result, it deepened the recession and diverged from the planned development indicators. In particular, this concerns international reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine and the country's budget deficit. Multilateral economic changes, exacerbated by the impact of hostilities in the Eastern part of the country have transformed the structure of socio-demographic processes in Ukraine. Armed confrontation causes a continuous deterioration of demographic and economic indicators of development not only of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but also has an impact on the whole country. This confrontation is also accompanied by the loss (destruction, theft, etc.) of public assets. The estimated cost of destroyed components of industrial, communal, social, transport, energy and other infrastructure are indicative due to the inability to inspect objects located within the territory controlled by terrorist groups. The conflict has also affected the investment attractiveness of the country, which accelerates the creation of a depressed nature of country’s development. Therefore, in the context of hostility in the Eastern Ukraine, it is important to understand and study its destabilizing impact, not only on domestic economic and demographic indicators, but also on the volume of foreign investment, which will allow us to understand the level of country’s involvement in the global investment space and the real impact of military action on the population and on international economic affairs of Ukraine. As a result of this scientific research, the population and GDP forecast have been conducted. It is worth noting that the forecast itself based on regression mathematical modelling which includes past data and can be accurate if current conditions are stable in the future.


Author(s):  
Вікторія Костянтинівна Макарович ◽  
Олена Олександрівна Григоревська ◽  
Наталія Степанівна Стойка

The purpose of the article is to develop theoretical provisions and develop guidelines for improving approaches to accounting for risks of exposure to COVID-19 and disclosure of information about them in the reporting of economic entities. In the process of research the methods of observation, comparison, analysis, synthesis, generalization were used. The study is based on the hypothesis that high-quality accounting and information support will increase the validity, efficiency and analytical information about the risks of COVID-19 and their impact on business activities in accordance with modern management requirements, strengthening the responsibility of performers, improving management accounting. The article summarizes the approaches to the impact of uncertainty and risk on the accounting and analytical system of enterprises, which are considered in scientific circles by domestic researchers. The risks of the enterprise’s activity that are relevant in the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic are highlighted: risks caused by restrictions by legislative and regulatory acts; risks due to the occurrence of obligations related to the production and sale of products, goods, works, services; risks of asset impairment; risks to the recognition and measurement of liabilities; risks of possible bankruptcy; investment risks. to identify risk and assess it, you can use the «triple method». It is established that the accounting and information support of risk management in the conditions of influence of COVID-19 includes: methodical support of risk accounting, analytical support, documentary support; display of information on risks in the reporting, which allowed developing a report on the risks of the impact of COVID-19 on the activities of the enterprise. The obtained results are the basis for bringing the system of accounting and analytical support to a qualitatively new level and will generate useful, truthful and relevant information for enterprise management in decision-making to minimize the impact of risks on business activities through COVID-19.


2019 ◽  
pp. 43-53
Author(s):  
Nazariy N. Popadynets ◽  
Yuliya V. Zhuravel ◽  
Olena V. Panukhnyk

Abstract. The purpose of the research is to determine government measures to form a mechanism toensure the formation of the quality of education in higher education institutions. Methods. In the course ofthe research, general scientific methods and approaches, a systematic approach, general logical researchmethods (analysis, synthesis, generalization, comparison) were used. Results. The article discusses key studies of the development of education in the country; in particular, attention paid to the processes of stateregulation of the activities of higher education institutions. On the basis of theoretical and methodologicalanalysis, a general scheme of the mechanism of state regulation of higher education is proposed, which consists of subject-objective, target, instrumental and information-analytical components. It was determined thatthe stimulation of educational institutions to continuously improve the quality and availability of educationalservices in accordance with the future needs of the labor market and the economy, the production of newservices occurs through partial regulation of these processes by the state. It has been proved that comprehensive legal, organizational, resource, information support for the development of the economy, employmentand social infrastructure capable of realizing the rights of education and development of the population, aswell as meeting the needs of various industries in qualified personnel, stimulating the demographic reproduction of the population directly depends on the quality of education in country, which is the basis for theformation of professional skills of each specialist. Practical meaning. Based on the analysis of the scientificworks of domestic scientists, as well as the practice of one of the universities, a system of indicators and keymeasures of the external system for ensuring the quality of education have been determined. Most educationalinstitutions in the country can use it by implementing in their practice those indicators to which this or thatinstitution responds. Prospects for further research. The results obtained determine the need for further assessment of the impact of other indicators for the implementation of a comprehensive assessment of theinternal and external system of education quality, which will help unify those indicators that will be mosteffective for a particular educational institution.


Author(s):  
R.T. Elemanova

The article is the first part of the study, which examines the issues related to the study of the history of population and historical demography of Kyrgyzstan. The emphasis is made on the issues of historiography on the basis of scientific literature on the problems of history and demography of Kyrgyzstan in the 20th — 21st centuries. The analysis and assessment of the main demographic indicators of the population of Kyrgyzstan in the Soviet and post-Soviet periods is considered, the process of change in demographic policy, as well as its impact on the socio-economic situation in the republic, are analyzed. It is concluded that the historiography of the historical demography of Kyrgyzstan is based on macro approaches to the study of demography processes, which was typical for Soviet historical science as a whole. The main problems of studying the history of the population of Kyrgyzstan, to which researchers were addressed, were the population census, changes in the number and distribution of the Kyrgyz, the impact of the 1916 uprising. on the demographic development of the Kyrgyz people, the settlement of nomads on the land, socio-cultural changes in Kyrgyzstan and their impact on the change of demographic characteristics. Much attention was also paid to public policy in the field of governance and influence on demographic processes.


2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (17) ◽  
pp. 5-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Antipova ◽  
Liudmila Fakeyeva

Demographic processes in rural areas of Belarus: geographical structure and spatial dynamics The study presents the spatiotemporal regularities and shifts in geo-demographic development of rural areas of Belarus at the multiscale level. Trends in rural population size dynamics for the period of 1959-2009 are detected and characterised. In accordance with the trends in the dynamics of the rural population of Belarus spatial regularities were identified. The geo-demographic territory of Belarus is typified on character of demographic dynamics and natural movement processes of rural population. We have identified three types of districts by the nature of the rural population dynamics for the period of 1970-2009: stable, growing and shrinking; and three types of natural population movement dynamics for the same period in accordance with spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the rural depopulation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 966-991
Author(s):  
E.V. Molchanova

Subject. This article explores the medical and demographic processes in the Republic of Karelia. Objectives. The article aims to assess the impact of various factors on regional medical and demographic processes in the context of socio-economic transformation and digital healthcare development. Methods. For the study, I used a comparative analysis and economic and mathematical methods. Results. The article reveals demographic features of population resettlement in the Republic of Karelia and patterns of medical and demographic processes in the municipalities of the region. It describes the relationship between socio-economic and medical and demographic indicators, and identifies the benefits and possible risk of introducing modern technologies into real clinical practice. Conclusions. There are certain man-environment relationships that affect the public health. These relationships need to be taken into account when forming demographic development programmes.


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