The need to predict changes in fracture toughness for materials where the tensile properties change through life, such as with irradiation, whilst accounting for geometric constraint effects, such as crack size, are clearly important. Currently one of the most likely approaches by which to develop such ability are through application of local approach models. These approaches appear to be sufficient in predicting lower shelf toughness under high constraint conditions, but may fail when attempting to predict toughness in the transition region or for low constraint geometries when using the same parameters, making predictions impossible. Cleavage toughness predictions in the transition regime that are then extended to low constraint conditions are here made with a stochastic, Monte Carlo implementation of the recently proposed James-Ford-Jivkov model. This implementation is based around the creation of individual initiators following the experimentally observed distribution for specific RPV steel, and determining if these initiators form voids or cause cleavage failure using the model’s improved criterion for particle failure. The model has shown to predict experimentally measured locations of cleavage initiators. Further, initial results from the Monte Carlo implementation of the model predicts the fracture toughness in a large part of the transition region, demonstrates an ability to predict the constraint shift and shows a level of scatter similar to that observed experimentally. All results presented, for a given material, are obtained without changes in the model parameters. This suggests that the model can be used predicatively for assessing toughness changes due to constraint- and temperature-driven plasticity changes.