scholarly journals Coupled model simulations of boreal summer intraseasonal (30–50 day) variability, Part 1: Systematic errors and caution on use of metrics

2008 ◽  
Vol 31 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 345-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. R. Sperber ◽  
H. Annamalai
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Model Simulations

Implementation of an Urban Parameterization Scheme into the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (10) ◽  
pp. 2296-2311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Trusilova ◽  
Barbara Früh ◽  
Susanne Brienen ◽  
Andreas Walter ◽  
Valéry Masson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Scale Modelling

AbstractAs the nonhydrostatic regional model of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM) is increasingly employed for studying the effects of urbanization on the environment, the authors extend its surface-layer parameterization by the Town Energy Budget (TEB) parameterization using the “tile approach” for a single urban class. The new implementation COSMO-CLM+TEB is used for a 1-yr reanalysis-driven simulation over Europe at a spatial resolution of 0.11° (~12 km) and over the area of Berlin at a spatial resolution of 0.025° (~2.8 km) for evaluating the new coupled model. The results on the coarse spatial resolution of 0.11° show that the standard and the new models provide 2-m temperature and daily precipitation fields that differ only slightly by from −0.1 to +0.2 K per season and ±0.1 mm day−1, respectively, with very similar statistical distributions. This indicates only a negligibly small effect of the urban parameterization on the model's climatology. Therefore, it is suggested that an urban parameterization may be omitted in model simulations on this scale. On the spatial resolution of 0.025° the model COSMO-CLM+TEB is able to better represent the magnitude of the urban heat island in Berlin than the standard model COSMO-CLM. This finding shows the importance of using the parameterization for urban land in the model simulations on fine spatial scales. It is also suggested that models could benefit from resolving multiple urban land use classes to better simulate the spatial variability of urban temperatures for large metropolitan areas on spatial scales below ~3 km.

scholarly journals Tendency Bias Correction in Coupled and Uncoupled Global Climate Models with a Focus on Impacts over North America

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 639-661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Chang ◽  
S. D. Schubert ◽  
R. D. Koster ◽  
A. M. Molod ◽  
H. Wang
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Transient Wave

Abstract We revisit the bias correction problem in current climate models, taking advantage of state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis data and new data assimilation tools that simplify the estimation of short-term (6 hourly) atmospheric tendency errors. The focus is on the extent to which correcting biases in atmospheric tendencies improves the model’s climatology, variability, and ultimately forecast skill at subseasonal and seasonal time scales. Results are presented for the NASA GMAO GEOS model in both uncoupled (atmosphere only) and coupled (atmosphere–ocean) modes. For the uncoupled model, the focus is on correcting a stunted North Pacific jet and a dry bias over the central United States during boreal summer—long-standing errors that are indeed common to many current AGCMs. The results show that the tendency bias correction (TBC) eliminates the jet bias and substantially increases the precipitation over the Great Plains. These changes are accompanied by much improved (increased) storm-track activity throughout the northern midlatitudes. For the coupled model, the atmospheric TBCs produce substantial improvements in the simulated mean climate and its variability, including a much reduced SST warm bias, more realistic ENSO-related SST variability and teleconnections, and much improved subtropical jets and related submonthly transient wave activity. Despite these improvements, the improvement in subseasonal and seasonal forecast skill over North America is only modest at best. The reasons for this, which are presumably relevant to any forecast system, involve the competing influences of predictability loss with time and the time it takes for climate drift to first have a significant impact on forecast skill.

scholarly journals Discrepancies of surface temperature trends in the CMIP5 simulations and observations on the global and regional scales

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 6161-6178 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Zhao ◽  
J. Xu ◽  
A. M. Powell Jr.
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Cmip5 Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
North Polar

Abstract. Using the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model simulations and two observational datasets, the surface temperature trends and their discrepancies have been examined. The temporal-spatial characteristics for the surface temperature trends are discussed. Different from a constant estimated linear trend for the entire simulation period of 1850–2012, a dynamical trend using running linear least squares fitting with the moving 10 yr time windows are calculated. The results show that the CMIP5 model simulations are generally in good agreement with the observational measurements for the global scale warming, but the temperature trends depend on the temporal change and the regional differences. Generally, contrary to the small discrepancies on the global scale, the large discrepancies are observed in the south- and north-polar regions and other sub-regions.

scholarly journals Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over mainland Southeast Asia by CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Supharatid ◽  
J. Nafung ◽  
T. Aribarg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Five mainland SEA countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand) are threatened by climate change. Here, the latest 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is employed to examine future climate change in this region under two SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble (MME) projects a warming (wetting) over Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand by 1.88–3.89, 2.04–4.22, 1.88–4.09, 2.03–4.25, and 1.90–3.96 °C (8.76–20.47, 12.69–21.10, 9.54–21.10, 13.47–22.12, and 7.03–15.17%) in the 21st century with larger values found under SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. The MME model displays approximately triple the current rainfall during the boreal summer. Overall, there are robust increases in rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon (3.41–3.44, 8.44–9.53, and 10.89–17.59%) and the Northeast Monsoon (−2.58 to 0.78, −0.43 to 2.81, and 2.32 to 5.45%). The effectiveness of anticipated climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under SSP2-4.5 results in slowing down the warming trends and decreasing precipitation trends after 2050. All these findings imply that member countries of mainland SEA need to prepare for appropriate adaptation measures in response to the changing climate.

Forced modulations of Sahel rainfall at decadal timescale over the 20th Century.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cassien Diabe Ndiaye ◽  
Juliette Mignot ◽  
Elsa Mohino
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Rainfall Regime ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Sahel Precipitation

<p>The semiarid region of the Sahel was marked during the 20<sup>th</sup> Century by significant modulations of its rainfall regime. Part of these modulations has been associated with the internal variability of the climate system, mediated by changes in oceanic sea surface temperature (SST). We show here that the external forcings, and in particular anthropogenic aerosols, might have played a role more important than previously thought in setting these variations. The study is based on the recent simulations performed for CMIP6 with the IPSL-CM6A-LR coupled model. As in most coupled models, the maximum precipitation is limited to the southern Sahel during boreal summer in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model. A novel definition of the Sahel precipitation region is proposed in order to take this bias into account. Our results show that external forcings induce decadal modulations of Sahel precipitation that correlate significantly at 0.6 with the observed precipitations and that the anthropogenic aerosols explain more than 70% of these modulations. These results confirm recent results of CMIP6 highlighting an important role of aerosol forcing for the decadal climate in and around the North Atlantic ocean.</p>

Organic and inorganic bromine measurements around the extratropical tropopause and lowermost stratosphere (Ex-LMS): Insights into transport pathways and total bromine 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meike Rotermund ◽  
Vera Bense ◽  
Martyn Chipperfield ◽  
Andreas Engel ◽  
Jens-Uwe Grooß ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Air Mass ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Extratropical Tropopause ◽  
Background Air ◽  
Middle Stratosphere

<p>We report on measurements of total bromine (Br<sup>tot</sup>) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) taken from the German High Altitude and LOng range research aircraft (HALO) over the North Atlantic, Norwegian Sea and north-western Europe in September/ October 2017 during the WISE (Wave-driven ISentropic Exchange) research campaign. Br<sup>tot</sup> is calculated from measured total organic bromine (Br<sup>org</sup>) (i.e., the sum of bromine contained in CH<sub>3</sub>Br, the halons and the major very short-lived brominated substances) added to inorganic bromine (Br<sub>y</sub><sup>inorg</sup>), evaluated from measured BrO and photochemical modelling. Combining these data, the weighted mean [Br<sup>tot</sup>] is 19.2 ± 1.2 ppt in the extratropical lower stratosphere (Ex-LS) of the northern hemisphere. The inferred average Br<sup>tot</sup> for the Ex-LS is slightly smaller than expected for the middle stratosphere in 2016 (~19.6 ppt (ranging from 19-20 ppt) as reported by the WMO/UNEP Assessment (2018)). However, it reflects the expected variability in Br<sup>tot</sup> in the Ex-LS due to influxes of shorter lived brominated source and product gases from different regions of entry. A closer look into Br<sup>org</sup> and Br<sub>y</sub><sup>inorg</sup> as well as simultaneously measured transport tracers (CO, N<sub>2</sub>O, ...) and an air mass lag-time tracer (SF<sub>6</sub>), suggests that a filament of air with elevated Br<sup>tot</sup> protruded into the extratropical lowermost stratosphere (Ex-LMS) from 350-385 K and between equivalent latitudes of 55-80˚N (high bromine filament – HBrF). Lagrangian transport modelling shows the multi-pathway contributions to Ex-LMS bromine. According to CLaMS air mass origin simulations, contributions to the HBrF consist of predominantly isentropic transport from the tropical troposphere (also with elevated [Br<sup>tot</sup>] = 21.6 ± 0.7 ppt) as well as a smaller contribution from an exchange across the extratropical tropopause which are mixed into the stratospheric background air. In contrast, the surrounding LS above and below the HBrF has less tropical tropospheric air, but instead additional stratospheric background air. Of the tropical tropospheric air in the HBrF, the majority is from the outflow of the Asian monsoon anticyclone and the adjacent tropical regions, which greatly influences concentrations of trace gases transported into the Ex-LMS in boreal summer and fall. The resulting increase of Br<sup>tot</sup> in the Ex-LMS and its consequences for ozone is investigated through the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT model simulations. However, more extensive monitoring of total stratospheric bromine in more aged air (i.e., in the middle stratosphere) as well as globally and seasonally is required in addition to model simulations to fully understand its impact on Ex-LMS ozone and the radiative forcing of climate.</p>

Analysis of the ENSO Cycle in the NCEP Coupled Forecast Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1265-1284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qin Zhang ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Yan Xue ◽  
Wanqiu Wang ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Thermocline Feedback

Abstract Simulations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled model are analyzed to document and understand the behavior of the evolution of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The analysis is of importance for two reasons: 1) the coupled model used in this study is also used operationally to provide model-based forecast guidance on a seasonal time scale, and therefore, an understanding of the ENSO mechanism in this particular coupled system could also lead to an understanding of possible biases in SST predictions; and 2) multiple theories for ENSO evolution have been proposed, and coupled model simulations are a useful test bed for understanding the relative importance of different ENSO mechanisms. The analyses of coupled model simulations show that during the ENSO evolution the net surface heat flux acts as a damping mechanism for the mixed-layer temperature anomalies, and positive contribution from the advection terms to the ENSO evolution is dominated by the linear advective processes. The subsurface temperature–SST feedback, referred to as thermocline feedback in some theoretical literature, is found to be the primary positive feedback, whereas the advective feedback by anomalous zonal currents and the thermocline feedback are the primary sources responsible for the ENSO phase transition in the model simulation. The basic mechanisms for the model-simulated ENSO cycle are thus, to a large extent, consistent with those highlighted in the recharge oscillator. The atmospheric anticyclone (cyclone) over the western equatorial northern Pacific accompanied by a warm (cold) phase of the ENSO, as well as the oceanic Rossby waves outside of 15°S–15°N and the equatorial higher-order baroclinic modes, all appear to play minor roles in the model ENSO cycles.

scholarly journals Intercomparison of temperature trends in IPCC CMIP5 simulations with observations, reanalyses and CMIP3 models

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1705-1714 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Xu ◽  
L. Zhao ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Temperature Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. On the basis of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the climate model simulations covering 1979 through 2005, the temperature trends and their uncertainties have been examined to note the similarities or differences compared to the radiosonde observations, reanalyses and the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) simulations. The results show noticeable discrepancies for the estimated temperature trends in the four data groups (radiosonde, reanalysis, CMIP3 and CMIP5), although similarities can be observed. Compared to the CMIP3 model simulations, the simulations in some of the CMIP5 models were improved. The CMIP5 models displayed a negative temperature trend in the stratosphere closer to the strong negative trend seen in the observations. However, the positive tropospheric trend in the tropics is overestimated by the CMIP5 models relative to CMIP3 models. While some of the models produce temperature trend patterns more highly correlated with the observed patterns in CMIP5, the other models (such as CCSM4 and IPSL_CM5A-LR) exhibit the reverse tendency. The CMIP5 temperature trend uncertainty was significantly reduced in most areas, especially in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere, compared to the CMIP3 simulations. Similar to the CMIP3, the CMIP5 simulations overestimated the tropospheric warming in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and underestimated the stratospheric cooling. The crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling occurred near 100 hPa in the tropics, which is higher than in the radiosonde and reanalysis data. The result is likely related to the overestimation of convective activity over the tropical areas in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Generally, for the temperature trend estimates associated with the numerical models including the reanalyses and global climate models, the uncertainty in the stratosphere is much larger than that in the troposphere, and the uncertainty in the Antarctic is the largest. In addition, note that the reanalyses show the largest uncertainty in the lower tropical stratosphere, and the CMIP3 simulations show the largest uncertainty in both the south and north polar regions.

scholarly journals IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

2008 ◽  
Vol 33 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 893-916 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo J. Bombardi ◽  
Leila M. V. Carvalho
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The South ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Monsoon System ◽  
Global Coupled Model
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