scholarly journals Cyclic variations in the dynamics of flu incidence in Azerbaijan, 1976–2000

2014 ◽  
Vol 143 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
B. D. DIMITROV ◽  
E. S. BABAYEV
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Cyclic Patterns ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Cyclic Variations ◽  
Cyclic Dynamics ◽  
Time Structures ◽  
Parametric Regression Models

SUMMARYMulticomponent cyclicity in influenza (flu) incidence had been observed in various countries (e.g. periods T = 1, 2–3, 5–6, 8·0, 10·6–11·3, 13, 18–19 years) and its close similarity with cycles in natural environmental phenomena as meteorological factors and heliogeophysical activity (HGA) suggested. This report aimed at verifying previous results on cyclic patterns of flu incidence by exploring whether flu annual cyclicity (seasonality) and trans-year (13 to <24 months) and/or multiannual (long-term, ⩾24 months) cycles might be present. For this purpose, a relatively long monthly flu incidence dataset consisting of absolute numbers of new cases from the Grand Baku area, Azerbaijan, for the years 1976–2000 (300 months) was analysed. The exploration of underlying chronomes or, time structures, was done by linear and nonlinear parametric regression models, autocorrelation, spectral analysis and periodogram regression analysis. We analysed temporal dynamics and described multicomponent cyclicity, determining its statistical significance. The analysis, considering the flu data specifically stratified in three distinct intervals (1976–1990, 1991–1995, 1996–2000), and also combinations thereof, indicated that the main cyclic pattern was a seasonal one, with a period of T = 12 months. Further, a number of multiannual cycles with periods T in the ranges of 26–36, 62–85 or 113–162 months were observed, i.e. average periods of 2·5, 6·1 and 11·5 years, respectively. Indeed, most of these cycles correspond to similar cyclic parameters of HGA and further analyses are warranted to investigate such relationships. In conclusion, our study revealed the presence of multicomponent cyclic dynamics in influenza incidence by using relatively long time-series of monthly data. The specific cyclic patterns of flu incidence in Azerbaijan allows further, more specific modelling and correlations with environmental factors of similar cyclicity, e.g. HGA, to be explored. These results might contribute more widely to a better understanding of influenza dynamics and its aetiology as well as to the derivation of more precise forecasted estimates for planning and prevention purposes.

scholarly journals Influence of treatment in multiple sclerosis dysability: an open, retrospective, non-randomized long-term analysis

2010 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 511-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lineu Cesar Werneck ◽  
Paulo José Lorenzoni ◽  
Vitor A Radünz ◽  
Marco A.T Utiumi ◽  
Cláudia Suemi Kamoi Kay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Disease Progression ◽  
Age Of Onset ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Disability Status ◽  
Therapeutic Procedures ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Final Score

The efficacies of immunosuppressive (IMS) and immunomodulatory (IMM) drugs for multiple sclerosis (MS) have been reported in several studies. These agents can reduce relapse rates and lesions observed by magnetic resonance imaging studies. However, the effect of these medications in disability progression over 4 years is rarely examined. OBJECTIVE: To study the disabilities associated with MS patients after a long time period and to analyze the therapeutic influence of different types of treatments in patient disease progression. METHOD: This is an open, uncontrolled, non-randomized, retrospective study of the disease progression using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and the Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) in 155 cases of MS, which were 76% female with a mean age of onset of 30.21±9.70. The follow-up period was 115.39±88.08 months (median 92, 3 to 447 months). These cases were submitted to the following 277 different therapeutic procedures: 62 without IMS or IMM therapy (SYT) (just corticosteroids), 53 with azathioprine (AZA), 53 interferon-β (IFNβ)-1b 250 µg (BET), 55 IFNβ-1a 22 µg (R22), 19 IFNβ-1a 30 µg (AVO), 15 IFNβ-1a 44 µg (R44), 15 glatiramer acetate (COP) 20 mg, and 5 cases with mitoxantrone (MIT). RESULTS: The median EDSS group was 2.00 (0 to 5.5, mean 1.89±1.52) at the onset of each treatment and 2.50 (0 to 9, mean 3.06±2.18) at the end. The median initial MSSS was 3.34 (0.25 to 9.50, mean 3.94±2.91) and the final medial was 3.90 (0.05 to 9.88, mean 4.02±2.78). The EDSS between initial and final score for the whole group had statistically significant progression, as well as for the sub-groups SYT, AZA, BET and R22. No statistically significance difference was found in the MSSS between initial and final scores in the whole group or treatment sub-groups. The variation between the initial and final EDSS and MSSS among the types of treatments found no statistical significance for any group. CONCLUSION: In this study series, no statistical difference was found in the long-term progression of disability among the IMS and IMM treated cases, nor in the cases treated only with corticosteroids.

scholarly journals Temporal dynamics of functional networks in long-term infant scalp EEG

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel J. Smith ◽  
Ehsan Alipourjeddi ◽  
Cristal Garner ◽  
Amy L. Maser ◽  
Daniel W. Shrey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Functional Connectivity ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Term Infant ◽  
Clustering Coefficient ◽  
Functional Networks ◽  
Principle Components Analysis ◽  
Long Time

AbstractHuman functional connectivity networks are modulated on time scales ranging from milliseconds to days. Rapid changes in connectivity over short time scales are a feature of healthy cognitive function, and variability over long time scales can impact the likelihood of seizure occurrence. However, relatively little is known about modulation of healthy functional networks over long time scales. To address this, we analyzed functional connectivity networks calculated from long-term EEG recordings from 19 healthy infants. Networks were subject-specific, as inter-subject correlations between weighted adjacency matrices were low. However, within individual subjects, both sleep and wake networks were stable over time, with stronger functional connectivity during sleep than wakefulness. This enabled automatic separation of wakefulness and sleep states via principle components analysis of the functional network time series, with median classification accuracy of 91%. Lastly, we found that network strength, degree, clustering coefficient, and path length significantly varied with time of day, when measured in both wakefulness and sleep. Together, these results suggest that modulation of healthy functional networks occurs over long timescales and is robust and repeatable. Accounting for such temporal periodicities may improve the physiological interpretation and use of functional connectivity analysis to investigate brain function in health and disease.

scholarly journals An Assessment of House Loans Cointegration with Macro Variables in Selected Euro Zone Countries

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-58
Author(s):  
Kazys Kupčinskas ◽  
Arvydas Paškevičius
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Relationship

This paper performs an empirical study on house loans, interest rates, unemployment, and house rent prices relationship in Germany, France, Spain and Italy from the year 2003 to 2018. We look for the cointegration and causality relationship between the house loans and macro variables with the help of the Vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality methods. We investigate whether variables with monthly data explain better the relationship and causal effects between the variables. We find a long term cointegrating relationship between the real house loans and interest rates, unemployment and house rent prices for France, Spain, and Italy, but not for Germany. On average the equilibrium in house loan development is reached from 4 to 8 years, meaning that long term equilibrium exists, but the variables reach it in a rather long time period. The ECB deposit facility rate included as an exogenous variable in four countries gained no significant power in explaining the short term changes of house loans in any of the country. We reveal a complex interaction between the bank’s credits and unemployment, interest rates, house rental prices in the paper. 

scholarly journals Fractal measures of spatial pattern as a heuristic for return rate in vegetative systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 150519 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Irvine ◽  
E. L. Jackson ◽  
E. J. Kenyon ◽  
K. J. Cook ◽  
M. J. Keeling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Return Rate ◽  
Long Term Study ◽  
Fractal Measures ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Predictive Relationship

Measurement of population persistence is a long-standing problem in ecology; in particular, whether it is possible to gain insights into persistence without long time-series. Fractal measurements of spatial patterns, such as the Korcak exponent or boundary dimension, have been proposed as indicators of the persistence of underlying dynamics. Here we explore under what conditions a predictive relationship between fractal measures and persistence exists. We combine theoretical arguments with an aerial snapshot and time series from a long-term study of seagrass. For this form of vegetative growth, we find that the expected relationship between the Korcak exponent and persistence is evident at survey sites where the population return rate can be measured. This highlights a limitation of the use of power-law patch-size distributions and other indicators based on spatial snapshots. Moreover, our numeric simulations show that for a single species and a range of environmental conditions that the Korcak–persistence relationship provides a link between temporal dynamics and spatial pattern; however, this relationship is specific to demographic factors, so we cannot use this methodology to compare between species.

Long-term Cyclic Variations of Prominences, Green and Red Coronae over Solar Cycles

2000 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 201-204
Author(s):  
Vojtech Rušin ◽  
Milan Minarovjech ◽  
Milan Rybanský
Keyword(s):  
Emission Lines ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Green Line ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
The South ◽  
Coronal Emission ◽  
Local Maxima ◽  
The North ◽  
Cyclic Variations

AbstractLong-term cyclic variations in the distribution of prominences and intensities of green (530.3 nm) and red (637.4 nm) coronal emission lines over solar cycles 18–23 are presented. Polar prominence branches will reach the poles at different epochs in cycle 23: the north branch at the beginning in 2002 and the south branch a year later (2003), respectively. The local maxima of intensities in the green line show both poleward- and equatorward-migrating branches. The poleward branches will reach the poles around cycle maxima like prominences, while the equatorward branches show a duration of 18 years and will end in cycle minima (2007). The red corona shows mostly equatorward branches. The possibility that these branches begin to develop at high latitudes in the preceding cycles cannot be excluded.

Enhancing the power generation of Rhodopseudomonas palustris-based MFC

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 1261-1268
Author(s):  
Shu Otani ◽  
Dang-Trang Nguyen ◽  
Kozo Taguchi
Keyword(s):  
Activated Carbon ◽  
Rhodopseudomonas Palustris ◽  
Ozone Treatment ◽  
Maximum Power Density ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Carbon Sheet ◽  
Uv Ozone

In this study, a portable and disposable paper-based microbial fuel cell (MFC) was fabricated. The MFC was powered by Rhodopseudomonas palustris bacteria (R. palustris). An activated carbon sheet-based anode pre-loaded organic matter (starch) and R. palustris was used. By using starch in the anode, R. palustris-loaded on the anode could be preserved for a long time in dry conditions. The MFC could generate electricity on-demand activated by adding water to the anode. The activated carbon sheet anode was treated by UV-ozone treatment to remove impurities and to improve its hydrophilicity before being loaded with R. palustris. The developed MFC could generate the maximum power density of 0.9 μW/cm2 and could be preserved for long-term usage with little performance degradation (10% after four weeks).

Selective statistical estimates of multi-year monthly concentrations of biogenous pollution of small rivers of the Northwest zone of the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
pp. 9-13
Author(s):  
Sergey Kovalenko
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Processing ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Statistical Estimates ◽  
Scientific Task ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Agricultural Areas

The management of surface watercourses is an urgent scientific task. The article presents the results of statistical processing of long-term monthly data of field observations of hydrological and hydrochemical parameters along the Upper Yerga small river in the Vologda region. Sampling estimates of statistical parameters are obtained, autocorrelation and correlation analyzes are performed. The limiting periods from the point of view of pollution for water receivers receiving wastewater from drained agricultural areas are identified.

Charlemagne’s Health in ‘Old Age’: Did It Affect Carolingian Military Strategy?

Mediaevistik ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-53
Author(s):  
Bernard S. Bachrach
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
The Political ◽  
Military Strategy ◽  
The West ◽  
Long Time

During the first thirty-three years of his reign as king of the Franks, i.e., prior to his coronation as emperor on Christmas day 800, Charlemagne, scholars generally agree, pursued a successful long-term offensive and expansionist strategy. This strategy was aimed at conquering large swaths of erstwhile imperial territory in the west and bringing under Carolingian rule a wide variety of peoples, who either themselves or their regional predecessors previously had not been subject to Frankish regnum.1 For a very long time, scholars took the position that Charlemagne continued to pursue this expansionist strategy throughout the imperial years, i.e., from his coronation on Christmas Day 800 until his final illness in later January 814. For example, Louis Halphen observed: “comme empereur, Charles poursuit, sans plus, l’oeuvre entamée avant l’an 800.”2 F. L. Ganshof, who also wrote several studies treating Charlemagne’s army, was in lock step with Halphen and observed: “As emperor, Charlemagne pursued the political and military course he had been following before 25 December 800.”3

The Spread of Pollutants from Harbour Sludge Depots

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 623-633
Author(s):  
M Loxham ◽  
F Weststrate
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Molecular Diffusion ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Parameter Analysis ◽  
Migration Patterns ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Dilution Effects ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Harbour Sludge

It is generally agreed that both the landfill option, or the civil techniques option for the final disposal of contaminated harbour sludge involves the isolation of the sludge from the environment. For short time scales, engineered barriers such as a bentonite screen, plastic sheets, pumping strategies etc. can be used. However for long time scales the effectiveness of such measures cannot be counted upon. It is thus necessary to be able to predict the long term environmenttal spread of contaminants from a mature landfill. A model is presented that considers diffusion and adsorption in the landfill site and convection and adsorption in the underlaying aquifer. From a parameter analysis starting form practical values it is shown that the adsorption behaviour and the molecular diffusion coefficient of the sludge, are the key parameters involved in the near field. The dilution effects of the far field migration patterns are also illustrated.

The Many Faces of Socioeconomic Change

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Toye
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Adam Smith ◽  
First Century ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Face ◽  
Scientific Expertise ◽  
The Many ◽  
Century Development

This book provides a survey of different ways in which economic sociocultural and political aspects of human progress have been studied since the time of Adam Smith. Inevitably, over such a long time span, it has been necessary to concentrate on highlighting the most significant contributions, rather than attempting an exhaustive treatment. The aim has been to bring into focus an outline of the main long-term changes in the way that socioeconomic development has been envisaged. The argument presented is that the idea of socioeconomic development emerged with the creation of grand evolutionary sequences of social progress that were the products of Enlightenment and mid-Victorian thinkers. By the middle of the twentieth century, when interest in the accelerating development gave the topic a new impetus, its scope narrowed to a set of economically based strategies. After 1960, however, faith in such strategies began to wane, in the face of indifferent results and general faltering of confidence in economists’ boasts of scientific expertise. In the twenty-first century, development research is being pursued using a research method that generates disconnected results. As a result, it seems unlikely that any grand narrative will be created in the future and that neo-liberalism will be the last of this particular kind of socioeconomic theory.

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