Scenarios of future Indian electricity demand accounting for space cooling and electric vehicle adoption

AbstractIndia is expected to witness rapid growth in electricity use over the next two decades. Here, we introduce a custom regression model to project electricity consumption in India over the coming decades, which includes a bottom-up estimate of electricity consumption for two major growth drivers, air conditioning, and vehicle electrification. The model projections are available at a customizable level of spatial aggregation at an hourly temporal resolution, which makes them useful as inputs to long-term electricity infrastructure planning studies. The approach is used to develop electricity consumption data sets spanning various technology adoption and growth scenarios up to the year 2050 in five-year increments. The aim of the data is to provide a range of scenarios for India’s demand growth given new technology adoption. With long-term hourly demand projections serving as an essential input for electricity infrastructure modeling, this data publication enables further work on energy efficiency, generation, and transmission expansion planning for a fast-growing and increasingly important region from a global climate mitigation perspective.

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A MULTI-MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE REGIONAL AND SECTORAL ROLES OF BIOENERGY IN NEAR- AND LONG-TERM CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007813400149 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 04 (04) ◽

pp. 1340014 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

KATHERINE CALVIN ◽

MARSHALL WISE ◽

DAVID KLEIN ◽

DAVID McCOLLUM ◽

MASSIMO TAVONI ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Climate ◽

Emissions Reduction ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Mixed Effect ◽

Regional Patterns ◽

Climate Policies ◽

Supply Potential ◽

Bioenergy Feedstocks ◽

Near Term

This paper examines the near- and the long-term contribution of regional and sectoral bioenergy use in response to both regionally diverse near-term policies and longer-term global climate change mitigation policies. The use of several models provides a source of heterogeneity in terms of incorporating uncertain assumptions about future socioeconomics and technology, as well as different paradigms for how different regions and major economies of the world may respond to climate policies. The results highlight the heterogeneity and versatility of bioenergy itself, with different types of resources and applications in several energy sectors. In large part due to this versatility, the contribution of bioenergy to climate mitigation is a robust response across all models. Regional differences in bioenergy consumption, however, highlight the importance of assumptions about trade in bioenergy feedstocks and the influence of energy and climate policies. When global trade in bioenergy is possible, regional patterns of bioenergy use follow global patterns. When trade is assumed not to be feasible, regions with high bioenergy supply potential tend to consume more bioenergy than other regions. Energy and climate policies, such as renewable energy targets, can incentivize bioenergy use, but specifics of the policies will dictate the degree to which this is true. For example, renewable final energy targets, which include electric and non-electric renewable sources, increase bioenergy use in all models, while electric-only renewable targets have a mixed effect on bioenergy use across models.

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ON THE REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE MITIGATION COSTS: THE IMPACT OF DELAYED COOPERATIVE ACTION

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007814400028 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 05 (01) ◽

pp. 1440002 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

TINO ABOUMAHBOUB ◽

GUNNAR LUDERER ◽

ELMAR KRIEGLER ◽

MARIAN LEIMBACH ◽

NICO BAUER ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Technological Development ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Distribution ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Cooperative Action ◽

Trade Effects ◽

Mitigation Costs ◽

Near Term ◽

The Impact

This paper analyzes the results of the climate-energy-economy model, Regionalized Model of Investment and Technological Development (REMIND), to assess the regional costs of climate-change mitigation for reaching the 2°C target with a medium to high likelihood. We assume that the global climate regime remains fragmented until 2020 after which a global mitigation target is adopted. We decompose the regional mitigation costs into (a) domestic and energy trade effects and (b) permit trade effects. Delaying cooperative action affects domestic costs by increasing the energy system's costs as a consequence of lock-in of carbon-intensive infrastructures. This is particularly true in developing countries with low near-term emissions reduction commitments. In a global cap-and-trade system, the effect of delayed action highly depends on whether or not the regions are over- or under-allocated with emissions allowances in the long term. Those with allowances exceeding their long-term emissions will likely benefit from the delay, while others suffer the consequences of higher long-term carbon prices.

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The Time Value of Carbon Storage

10.21203/rs.3.rs-966946/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Zack Parisa ◽

Eric Marland ◽

Brent Sohngen ◽

Gregg Marland ◽

Jennifer Jenkins

Keyword(s):

Carbon Storage ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Full Potential ◽

Short Term ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Early Action ◽

Natural Climate

Abstract Widespread concern about the risks of global climate change is increasingly focused on the urgent need for action (IPCC, 2018; IPCC, 2021), and natural climate solutions are a critical component of global strategies to achieve low temperature targets (e.g. Griscom et al. 2017, Roe et al. 2019). Yet to date, the full potential of natural systems to store carbon has not been leveraged because policy-makers have required long-term contracts to compensate for permanence concerns, and these long-term contracts substantially raise costs and limit deployment. In this paper, we lay out the rationale that our time preference for early action embedded in the Global Warming Potentials (GWP) leads to the conclusion that multiple tons of short-term storage of carbon in ecosystem stocks can be considered to have equal value – as measured by the social cost of carbon -- as 1 ton of carbon sequestered permanently. This equivalence can be used to quantify the value of short-term carbon storage, thereby removing one of the most significant barriers to participation in the carbon market and enabling the full climate mitigation potential of the land sector to be realized.

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On Climate Change Risks of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development in Russia

Russian Economic Journal ◽

10.33983/0130-9757-2019-5-79-95 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 79-95

Author(s):

N.E. Terentiev

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Economic Development ◽

Technological Innovation ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate Risk ◽

Climate Change Risks ◽

Socio Economic Development ◽

Management Policies

Based on the latest data, paper investigates the dynamics of global climate change and its impact on economic growth in the long-term. The notion of climate risk is considered. The main directions of climate risk management policies are analyzed aimed, first, at reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through technological innovation and structural economic shifts; secondly, at adaptation of population, territories and economic complexes to the irreparable effects of climate change. The problem of taking into account the phenomenon of climate change in the state economic policy is put in the context of the most urgent tasks of intensification of long-term socio-economic development and parrying strategic challenges to the development of Russia.

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Lime kiln conversion from coke to natural gas operation – an option in direction of sustainable energy

Sugar Industry ◽

10.36961/si24555 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 431-434

Author(s):

Oliver Arndt

Keyword(s):

Natural Gas ◽

New Technology ◽

Exhaust Gas ◽

Gas Temperature ◽

Gaseous Fuels ◽

Lime Kiln ◽

Lime Kilns ◽

Co2 Balance ◽

Exhaust Gas Temperature

This paper deals with the conversion of coke fired lime kilns to gas and the conclusions drawn from the completed projects. The paper presents (1) the decision process associated with the adoption of the new technology, (2) the necessary steps of the conversion, (3) the experiences and issues which occurred during the first campaign, (4) the impacts on the beet sugar factory (i.e. on the CO2 balance and exhaust gas temperature), (5) the long term impressions and capabilities of several campaigns of operation, (6) the details of available technologies and (7) additional benefits that would justify a conversion from coke to natural gas operation on existing lime kilns. (8) Forecast view to develop systems usable for alternative gaseous fuels (e.g. biogas).

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Brain Health: Attitudes towards Technology Adoption in Older Adults

Healthcare ◽

10.3390/healthcare9010023 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 23

Author(s):

Nadir G. Abdelrahman ◽

Raza Haque ◽

Molly E. Polverento ◽

Andrea Wendling ◽

Courtney M. Goetz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Technology Adoption ◽

Physical Health ◽

Social Engagement ◽

Information Technologies ◽

New Technology ◽

Handheld Devices ◽

Brain Health ◽

Use Of Technology ◽

Health Related

(1) Background: There is increasing scholarly support for the notion that properly implemented and used, technology can be of substantial benefit for older adults. Use of technology has been associated with improved self-rating of health and fewer chronic conditions. Use of technology such as handheld devices by older adults has the potential to improve engagement and promote cognitive and physical health. However, although, literature suggests some willingness by older adults to use technology, simultaneously there are reports of a more cautious attitude to its adoption. Our objective was to determine the opinions towards information technologies, with special reference to brain health, in healthy older adults either fully retired or still working in some capacity including older adult workers and retired adults living in an independent elderly living community. We were especially interested in further our understanding of factors that may play a role in technology adoption and its relevance to addressing health related issues in this population; (2) Methods: Two focus groups were conducted in an inner-city community. Participants were older adults with an interest in their general health and prevention of cognitive decline. They were asked to discuss their perceptions of and preferences for the use of technology. Transcripts were coded for thematic analysis; (3) Results: Seven common themes emerged from the focus group interviews: physical health, cognitive health, social engagement, organizing information, desire to learn new technology, advancing technology, and privacy/security; and (4) Conclusions: This study suggests that in order to promote the use of technology in older adults, one needs to consider wider contextual issues, not only device design per se, but the older adult’s rationale for using technology and their socio-ecological context.

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Agroforestry to Achieve Global Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Targets: Are South Asian Countries Sufficiently Prepared?

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12030303 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 303

Author(s):

Shalini Dhyani ◽

Indu K Murthy ◽

Rakesh Kadaverugu ◽

Rajarshi Dasgupta ◽

Manoj Kumar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

South Asia ◽

South Asian ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Global Climate ◽

Well Being ◽

Agroforestry Systems ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Asian Countries ◽

Implementation Phase ◽

Adaptation And Mitigation

Traditional agroforestry systems across South Asia have historically supported millions of smallholding farmers. Since, 2007 agroforestry has received attention in global climate discussions for its carbon sink potential. Agroforestry plays a defining role in offsetting greenhouse gases, providing sustainable livelihoods, localizing Sustainable Development Goals and achieving biodiversity targets. The review explores evidence of agroforestry systems for human well-being along with its climate adaptation and mitigation potential for South Asia. In particular, we explore key enabling and constraining conditions for mainstreaming agroforestry systems to use them to fulfill global climate mitigation targets. Nationally determined contributions submitted by South Asian countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change acknowledge agroforestry systems. In 2016, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation’s Resolution on Agroforestry brought consensus on developing national agroforestry policies by all regional countries and became a strong enabling condition to ensure effectiveness of using agroforestry for climate targets. Lack of uniform methodologies for creation of databases to monitor tree and soil carbon stocks was found to be a key limitation for the purpose. Water scarcity, lack of interactive governance, rights of farmers and ownership issues along with insufficient financial support to rural farmers for agroforestry were other constraining conditions that should be appropriately addressed by the regional countries to develop their preparedness for achieving national climate ambitions. Our review indicates the need to shift from planning to the implementation phase following strong examples shared from India and Nepal, including carbon neutrality scenarios, incentives and sustainable local livelihood to enhance preparedness.

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Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ◽

10.1038/s41612-021-00190-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Mateusz Taszarek ◽

John T. Allen ◽

Mattia Marchio ◽

Harold E. Brooks

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Convective Available Potential Energy ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Convective Precipitation ◽

The Past ◽

The Tropics ◽

Rawinsonde Data

AbstractGlobally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.

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Technological Change and the International System

World Politics ◽

10.1017/s0043887121000010 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 73 (3) ◽

pp. 545-589 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Helen V. Milner ◽

Sondre Ulvund Solstad

Keyword(s):

Technology Adoption ◽

Technological Change ◽

Technology Use ◽

New Technologies ◽

Causal Effect ◽

International System ◽

New Technology ◽

World Politics ◽

Adoption Of Technology ◽

Adoption Of New Technology

ABSTRACTDo world politics affect the adoption of new technology? States overwhelmingly rely on technology invented abroad, and their differential intensity of technology use accounts for many of their differences in economic development. Much of the literature on technology adoption focuses on domestic conditions. The authors argue instead that the structure of the international system is critical because it affects the level of competition among states, which in turn affects leaders’ willingness to enact policies that speed technology adoption. Countries adopt new technology as they seek to avoid being vulnerable to attack or coercion by other countries. By systematically examining states’ adoption of technology over the past two hundred years, the authors find that countries adopt new technologies faster when the international system is less concentrated, that changes in systemic concentration have a temporally causal effect on technology adoption, and that government policies to promote technology adoption are related to concerns about rising international competition. A competitive international system is an important incentive for technological change and may underlie global technology waves.

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Meridional changes in the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre during Heinrich Stadials

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-88817-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Tainã M. L. Pinho ◽

Cristiano M. Chiessi ◽

Rodrigo C. Portilho-Ramos ◽

Marília C. Campos ◽

Stefano Crivellari ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Climate ◽

South Atlantic ◽

Subtropical Gyre ◽

Climate System ◽

The South ◽

Foraminiferal Species ◽

Ocean Gyres ◽

Long Term Monitoring ◽

Term Monitoring

AbstractSubtropical ocean gyres play a key role in modulating the global climate system redistributing energy between low and high latitudes. A poleward displacement of the subtropical gyres has been observed over the last decades, but the lack of long-term monitoring data hinders an in-depth understanding of their dynamics. Paleoceanographic records offer the opportunity to identify meridional changes in the subtropical gyres and investigate their consequences to the climate system. Here we use the abundance of planktonic foraminiferal species Globorotalia truncatulinodes from a sediment core collected at the northernmost boundary of the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (SASG) together with a previously published record of the same species from the southernmost boundary of the SASG to reconstruct meridional fluctuations of the SASG over last ca. 70 kyr. Our findings indicate southward displacements of the SASG during Heinrich Stadials (HS) 6-4 and HS1, and a contraction of the SASG during HS3 and HS2. During HS6-4 and HS1, the SASG southward displacements likely boosted the transfer of heat to the Southern Ocean, ultimately strengthening deep-water upwelling and CO2 release to the atmosphere. We hypothesize that the ongoing SASG poleward displacement may further increase oceanic CO2 release.

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