scholarly journals Assessing inflation in CR using artificial intelligence

2021 ◽  
Vol 129 ◽  
pp. 03034
Author(s):  
Marek Vochozka ◽  
Tomas Krulicky ◽  
Lenka Novotna
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Value Added ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Rate Development

Research background: Unemployment and inflation are among the basic macroeconomic indicators of the national economy. Both these phenomena are inextricably linked to market economy and have undisputable social and economic impacts on the population of the countries where these processes take place. The relationship between the inflation and unemployment can be expressed by means of Philips curve. Purpose: The objective of the research is to compile Philips’s curve for the years 2000-2021 and compare the resulting curve with the initial short-run Philips curve. Methods: The validity of the mutual relationship between unemployment and inflation is examined using the method of neural networks. The data on inflation and unemployment rate are available from the period of 31 January 2020 and 28 February 2021. The data on inflation were obtained from the database of the Czech Statistical Office; the data on unemployment, from the official websites of the Czech National Bank. Findings & Value added: During the period under review, unemployment rate and inflation fluctuated constantly. Currently, both variables have stabilized at around 3%. Compared the long-term trend, in the years 2008-2009, the inflation rate was higher than unemployment rate. The analysis performed shows that the actual Philips curve for the Czech Republic in the period under review does not copy the initial short-run Philips curve, which indicates that the prediction of inflation rate development cannot be based on the development of unemployment rate, and the development of inflation rate cannot be a basis for exact prediction of unemployment rate development.

scholarly journals Terrorism and Macroeconomy: A Review of The Eurasian Economies

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özge Korkmaz
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Export Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between terrorist incidents, inflation rate, unemployment rate, per capita GDP, export rate and import rate for Eurasian countries Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Belarus for the period 1994-2015. For this purpose, the Westerlund cointegration analysis and have been using the causality test introduced by Holtz-Eakin, Newey and Rosen. As a result of the analyzes, it is observed that there is a long-term relationship between the export rate and the terrorist incidents and the export rate is the reason for the terrorist incidents. At the same time, it has been found that there is no long-term interaction and causal link between all other variables and terrorist incidents considered in the study.

A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-92
Author(s):  
Sara Muhammadullah ◽  
Amena Urooj ◽  
Faridoon Khan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The study investigates the query of structural break or unit root considering four macroeconomic indicators; unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth, and inflation rate of Pakistan. The previous studies create ambiguity regarding the stationarity and non-stationarity of these variables. We employ Zivot & Andrews (1992) unit root test and Step Indicator Saturation (SIS) method for multiple break detection in mean. GDP growth and inflation rate are stationary at level whereas unit root tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of the unemployment rate and interest rate at level. However, Zivot and Andrew unit root test with a single endogenous break indicates that the unemployment rate and interest rate are stationary at level with a single endogenous break. On the other hand, the SIS method reveals that the series are stationary with multiple structural breaks. It is inferred that it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the unemployment rate and interest rate to attain stationarity. The results of this study confirmed that there exist multiple breaks in the macroeconomic variables considered in the context of Pakistan.

scholarly journals On the Determinants of Unemployment Rate in Nigeria: Evidence from Fully Modified OLS and Error Correction Model

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monday Osagie Adenomon ◽  
N. A. Okoro-Ugochukwu ◽  
C. A. Adenomon
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Determinants Of Unemployment

This study employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to investigate the long-run and short-run determinants of unemployment rate in Nigeria. To achieve this annual data on unemployment rate, inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and population growth from 1981 to 2016 was collected from Central Bank Statistical Bulletins and the World Bank website. The ADF test revealed that the macroeconomic variables are stationary at first difference while the Cointegration test revealed that the variables are cointegrated. Using unemployment rate as dependent variable, the FMOLS model revealed that exchange rate and population growth are positively significantly related to unemployment rate, interest rate and inflation rate were negatively related to unemployment rate but only interest rate was significant. The short run relationship revealed that the coefficient of the ecm(-1) is negative and statistically significant at 5% level indicating that the system corrects its previous period disequilibrium at the speed of 48.93% yearly. This study concludes that high exchange rate and population growth can lead to increase in unemployment rate in Nigeria while the government should develop the industrial sector and non-oil sector in order to generate employment and boost export in Nigeria.

Entrepreneurship in Tourism Sector in Central European Country: Hospitality Trends in the Czech Republic in 2007 - 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1351
Author(s):  
Ladislav MURA ◽  
Patrik KAJZAR
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Central European ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of occupancy in accommodation establishments in the Czech Republic at an average pace of real wage growth (%), GDP (%) and unemployment rate (%) in the period 2007-2016. The main sources of information utilized in contributions are based on tourism statistics and selected macroeconomic indicators obtained from the website of the Czech Statistical Office. The data was analysed using SAS software. The authors use regression analysis. It deals with dependence of the quantitative variable on one or more quantitative variables. The main results of this survey indicate an increase of  occupancy in collective acommodation establishements in the Czech Republic between 2007 - 2016, as well as a moderate increase was detected in  real wages and the GDP. While detecting an  increase of  occupancy in collective acommodation establishements in the Czech Republic, the fall of unemployment rate was recognized.

scholarly journals Loyalty Programmes of Selective Grocery Retailers in the Czech Republic

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 617-625
Author(s):  
Petra Solarová
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Target Groups ◽  
Similar Time ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Interesting Fact ◽  
Time Determination ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Relationship

This paper deals with long term loyalty programmes of selective grocery retailers who operate in the market within the Czech Republic. Only those loyalty programmes designed for the end customers are taken into account, so this study is concerned with the B2C area. A long term loyalty programmes last at least for one year, i.e. twelve months (this time determination is valid for purposes of this paper). The main aim of this paper is to identify the single elements and principles occurring in long term loyalty programmes and then to develop an illustrative model. The presented output is a model of long term loyalty programmes that captures the three following phases: the establishment, development (or building) and termination of the relationship. In addition, from the empirical research, an interesting fact has emerged: two of the analysed long term loyalty programmes were launched at a similar time. This could be explained through the tendency for companies to copy the successful activities insigated by their competitors. Furthermore, the next remarkable phenomenon is that one grocery chain runs two long term loyalty programmes at the same time and the target groups of these programmes overlap. A possible explanation could be that the chain is making efforts to interest as many as possible of its different customers.

scholarly journals Price Appreciation and Roughness Duality in Bitcoin: A Multifractal Analysis

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (17) ◽  
pp. 2088
Author(s):  
Cristiana Vaz ◽  
Rui Pascoal ◽  
Helder Sebastião
Keyword(s):  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Long Range Correlations ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Since its launch in 2009, bitcoin has thrived, attracting the attention of investors, regulators, academia, and the public in general. Its price dynamics, characterized by extreme volatility, severe jumps, and impressive long-term appreciation, suggest that bitcoin is a new digital asset. This study presents a comprehensive overview of the fractality of bitcoin in a high-frequency framework, namely by applying Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) and a Multifractal Regime Detecting Method (MRDM) to Bitstamp 1 min bitcoin returns from January 2013 to July 2020. The results suggest that bitcoin is multifractal, with smaller and larger fluctuations being persistent and anti-persistent, respectively. Multifractality comes from significant long-range correlations, which cast some doubts on the informational efficiency at this frequency, but mainly comes from fat-tails, which highlights the significant risks undertaken by investors in this market. Our most important result is that the degree and richness of multifractality is time-varying and increased after 2017, when volumes and prices experienced an explosive behaviour. This complexity puts into perspective the duality of bitcoin: while it is characterized by long-run attractiveness and increasing valuation, it also has a high short-run instability. Hence, this study provides some empirical evidence supporting the relationship between these two observable features.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA TAHUN 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-99
Author(s):  
Feby Kinanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables including the open unemployment rate, trade balance, inflation rate and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar on Indonesian economic growth by using the ECM error correction model approach to see the long-term and short-term relationships that influence macro variables on economic growth. , in the long term the open unemployment rate variable, the trade balance, the inflation rate have a negative effect while the exchange rate has a positive effect, while in the short term the open unemployment rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate have a negative effect while the trade balance has a positive effect.   Keywords: Economic Growth, Open Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, Inflation, Exchange Rate

scholarly journals A Multi – Speed Europe, and the Peripherality of Poland

e-Finanse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-44
Author(s):  
Mateusz Mierzejewski ◽  
Karolina Palimąka
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Polish Economy

AbstractIn recent years, research on the synchronization of business cycles in economies has been undertaken more than once. This is a desirable phenomenon especially for the European Union. The aim of the article is to verify selected macroeconomic indicators that characterize the economies of countries belonging to the European Union in relation to Poland, thus presenting convergence of dynamic cycles of changes in socio-economic sphere indicators: inflation rate, unemployment rate, short-term interest rates, and GDP. For this purpose, a cross-spectral analysis was used which allows us to show the occurring fluctuations of different lengths, as well as to compare the strength of the relation of changes between selected indicators. According to the conducted analyses, it was noted that the Polish economy (in the perspective of long-term changes) is a determinant of changes for highly developed countries.

scholarly journals Dynamic Analysis for Measuring the Impact of Remittance Inflows on Inflation: Evidence From Georgia

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 339
Author(s):  
Azer Dilanchiev ◽  
Aligul Aghayev ◽  
Md. Hasanur Rahman ◽  
Jannatul Ferdaus ◽  
Araz Baghirli
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Explanatory Variable ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Remittance plays a critical role for small economies like Georgia as an unusual means of financing. In policy-making decisions, an understanding of the essence of the relationship between the amount of money exchanged and inflation is important. The paper studies the impact of remittance inflows, using quarterly data spanning a period (2000-2018), on the inflation rate in Georgia. The paper revealed that all independent variables have an effect on the long-run inflation rate; long-run inflation is positively associated with the leading explanatory variable remittance, and no relation is found in the short-run between remittance and inflation. The paper found that inflation's adjustment level to its equilibrium is 12% annually.

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