Delirium Duration Predicts 1-Month And 6-Month Mortality In Septic Patients From an Acute Geriatrics Unit
Abstract Sepsis is highly prevalent in the older population compared to younger age groups. We showed that the SOFA score predicts the risk of death at 30 days in patients discharged from an acute geriatrics unit (AGU). We aim at comparing the ability of both delirium duration and SOFA to predict 1-month and 6-month mortality among septic patients. We performed an observational cohort study recruiting all patients consecutively admitted to San Gerardo hospital AGU (Italy) between March 2017 and January 2020, aged ≥70, who were diagnosed with sepsis according to 2016 Sepsis-3 criteria. All patients underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment, including delirium twice a day with the 4AT. Outcomes were 1- and 6-month mortality rates. From 3,326 hospitalized patients, 235 were included in the study (median age 84 years, 42% females). Delirium accounted for 71.9% (169 patients, median duration 3 days). One-month and 6-month mortality rates were 32.3% and 55.3%, respectively. Age, albumin, hemoglobin, and PCR levels were associated with mortality and included as covariates in our Base Model. We performed pairwise comparison between c-indexes of the Base Model vs. Base+delirium duration (days) vs. Base+SOFA. The increment of predictive performance of model including delirium duration was statistically significant (c-index: 0.67 vs. 0.75 when considering 1-month mortality; 0.70 vs. 0.75 for 6-month mortality). Base+delirium duration performed better than Base+SOFA, but the difference not significant. Delirium duration performs as well as SOFA score in predicting 1- and 6-month mortality, with practical implications for the management of these patients in the continuum of care.