scholarly journals COVID-19 in South Korea: epidemiological and spatiotemporal patterns of the spread and the role of aggressive diagnostic tests in the early phase

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1106-1116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Whanhee Lee ◽  
Seung-Sik Hwang ◽  
Insung Song ◽  
Chaerin Park ◽  
Honghyok Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Diagnostic Testing ◽  
Early Period ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Start Date ◽  
Time To Peak ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Background South Korea experienced the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in the early period; thus data from this country could provide significant implications for global mitigation strategies. This study reports how COVID-19 has spread in South Korea and examines the effects of rapid widespread diagnostic testing on the spread of the disease in the early epidemic phase. Methods We collected daily data on the number of confirmed cases, tests and deaths due to COVID-19 from 20 January to 13 April 2020. We estimated the spread pattern with a logistic growth model, calculated the daily reproduction number (Rt) and examined the fatality pattern of COVID-19. Results From the start date of the epidemic in Korea (18 February 2020), the time to peak and plateau were 15.2 and 25 days, respectively. The initial Rt was 3.9 [95% credible interval (CI) 3.7 to 4.2] and declined to <1 after 2 weeks. The initial epidemic doubling time was 3.8 days (3.4 to 4.2 days). The aggressive testing in the early days of the epidemic was associated with reduction in transmission speed of COVID-19. In addition, as of 13 April, the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Korea was 2.1%, suggesting a positive effect of the targeted treatment policy for severe patients and medical resources. Conclusions Our findings provide important information for establishing and revising action plans based on testing strategies and severe patient care systems, needed to address the unprecedented pandemic.

scholarly journals Delay-Adjusted Age-Specific COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates in a High Testing Setting: South Korea, February 2020 to February 2021

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 5053
Author(s):  
Eunha Shim
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
High Death Rate ◽  
High Death ◽  
Case Fatality Risk ◽  
Survival Interval

In South Korea, a country with a high coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) testing rate, a total of 87,324 COVID-19 cases, including 1562 deaths, have been recorded as of 23 February 2021. This study assessed the delay-adjusted COVID-19 case fatality risk (CFR), including data from the second and third waves. A statistical method was applied to the data from 20 February 2021 through 23 February 2021 to minimize bias in the crude CFR, accounting for the survival interval as the lag time between disease onset and death. The resulting overall delay-adjusted CFR was 1.97% (95% credible interval: 1.94–2.00%). The delay-adjusted CFR was highest among adults aged ≥80 years and 70–79 years (22.88% and 7.09%, respectively). The cumulative incidence rate was highest among individuals aged ≥80 years and 60–69 years. The cumulative mortality rate was highest among individuals aged ≥80 years and 70–79 years (47 and 12 per million, respectively). In South Korea, older adults are being disproportionately affected by COVID-19 with a high death rate, although the incidence rate among younger individuals is relatively high. Interventions to prevent COVID-19 should target older adults to minimize the number of deaths.

scholarly journals Understanding Epidemic Data and Statistics: A Case Study of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirhoshang Hoseinpour Dehkordi ◽  
Majid Alizadeh ◽  
Pegah Derakhshan ◽  
Peyman Babazadeh ◽  
Arash Jahandideh
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mild Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe 2019-Novel-Coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected 181 countries and out of about 1197405 confirmed cases (By April 5). Understanding the transmission dynamics of the infection in each country which affected on a daily basis and evaluating the effectiveness of control policies is critical for our further actions. To date, the statistics of COVID-19 reported cases show more than 80 percent of infected had a mild case of disease, while around 14 percent of infected experienced a severe one and about 5 percent are categorized as critical disease victims. Today’s report (2020-04-05; daily updates in the prepared website) shows the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in US, Spain, Italy, and Germany are 308850, 126168, 124632 and 96092; respectively. Calculating the total Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of Italy (2020-04-04), about 13.3% of confirmed cases passed away. Compared to South Korea’s rate of 1.8% (7 times lower than Italy) and China’s 4% (69% lower than Italy), the CFR of Italy is too high. There are some effective policies that yield significant changes in the trend of cases. The lockdown policy in China, Italy and Spain (the effect observed after some days), Shutdown of all non-essential companies in Hubei (the effect observed after 5 days), combined policy in South Korea and reducing working hours in Iran.

scholarly journals Lessons from South Korea Regarding the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Outbreak

Healthcare ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Cheol Chang ◽  
Jong Hyun Baek ◽  
Donghwi Park
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Diagnostic Testing ◽  
Medical Community ◽  
Online Newspapers ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Rapid Transmission ◽  
The Government ◽  
Testing Patient ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

South Korea has experienced difficulty in controlling the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early stages of the outbreak. South Korea remains passionately determined to protect Koreans against COVID-19 and through trial and error hopes to improve the strategies used to limit the outbreak. Here, we review how COVID-19 spread and what prevention strategies were implemented during the early stages of the outbreak in South Korea. We investigated online newspapers published in South Korea from 21 January 2020 to 20 March 2020, and reviewed academic medical articles related to COVID-19. Additionally, we acquired data on COVID-19 cases through the official website for COVID-19 in South Korea. To date, numerous measures have been applied by the government and the medical community during the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak including the reporting of methods for diagnostic testing, patient classification, the introduction of drive-through screening centers, COVID-19 preventive measures, implementation of government policies for the shortage of face masks, and entry restrictions. Here, we present data from the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak and measures to prevent its spread in South Korea. We believe that sharing the experience of South Korea during the COVID-19 outbreak can help other countries to implement strategies to prevent its rapid transmission.

scholarly journals The Epidemiology, Transmissions and Risk Factors of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-43
Author(s):  
Roberto Badaró ◽  
Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado ◽  
Milena Soares ◽  
Luciana Knop
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Clinical Investigation ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Medical Subject Headings ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The outbreak of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and associated COVID-19 disease in late December 2019 has led to a global pandemic, spreading very quickly and causing a more than 500,000 deaths in less than six monhs of the ourbreak. The incidence differs by country and depends on many agents, such as population density, demography, the amount of testing people and reporting, and actions of mitigation strategies, provisions of sanitary and education of the society. In this article, we presented the current studies about the epidemiology of COVID-19, including the transmission routes of the SARS-CoV-2, the incubation period, the reproduction number (R0), the case fatality risks (CFR), comorbidities and measures prevention against COVID-19. We searched the articles in the main database (PubMed/Medline, Elsevier Science Direct, Scopus, Isi Web of Science, Embase, Exerpta Medica, UptoDate, Lilacs, Novel Coronavirus Resource Directory from Elsevier), in the high-impact international scientific Journals (Scimago Journal and Country Rank - SJR - and Journal Citation Reports - JCR), such as The Lancet, Science, Nature, The New England Journal of Medicine, Physiological Reviews, Journal of the American Medical Association, Plos One, Journal of Clinical Investigation, and in the data from Center for Disease Control (CDC), National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and World Health Organization (WHO). We prior selected meta-analysis, systematic reviews, article reviews and original articles in this order. We reviewed 235 articles and used 131 from March to June 2020, using the terms coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, novel coronavirus, Wuhan coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome, 2019-nCoV, 2019 novel coronavirus, n-CoV-2, covid, n-Sars-2, COVID-19, corona virus, coronaviruses, epodemiology of COVID-19, risk factors, viral spreading, transmissions, routes, animals incubation, period, RO, CFR, comorbidities, prevention, with the tools MeSH (Medical Subject Headings), AND, OR, and characters [,“,; /., to ensure the best review topics. We concluded that the epidemiological data is very important to know the transmission risks rate, purpose public political policies of mitigating the disease, protect the vulnerable population. Also, it is important reconsider the legislation about wild animals, the potential intermediate host(s) of various viruses, as well as the conditions of live for animals for human comsuption to prevent future outbreaks.

scholarly journals 458. Molecular SARS-CoV-2 Testing During the COVID-19 Outbreak: Experiences of a Hospital in Southeast Michigan, USA

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S296-S297
Author(s):  
Trini A Mathew ◽  
Jonathan Hopkins ◽  
Diane Kamerer ◽  
Shagufta N Ali ◽  
Daniel Ortiz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Features ◽  
Diagnostic Testing ◽  
Beaumont Hospital ◽  
High Capacity ◽  
Turnaround Time ◽  
Molecular Diagnostic ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Repeat Testing ◽  
Asymptomatic Patients ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Background The novel Coronavirus SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) outbreak was complicated by the lack of diagnostic testing kits. In early March 2020, leadership at Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak Michigan (Beaumont) identified the need to develop high capacity testing modalities with appropriate sensitivity and specificity and rapid turnaround time. We describe the molecular diagnostic testing experience since initial rollout on March 16, 2020 at Beaumont, and results of repeat testing during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in MI. Methods Beaumont is an 1100 bed hospital in Southeast MI. In March, testing was initially performed with the EUA Luminex NxTAG CoV Extended Panel until March 28, 2020 when testing was converted to the EUA Cepheid Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2 for quicker turnaround times. Each assay was validated with a combination of patient samples and contrived specimens. Results During the initial week of testing there was > 20 % specimen positivity. As the prevalence grew the positivity rate reached 68% by the end of March (Figure 1). Many state and hospital initiatives were implemented during the outbreak, including social distancing and screening of asymptomatic patients to increase case-finding and prevent transmission. We also adopted a process for clinical review of symptomatic patients who initially tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 by a group of infectious disease physicians (Figure 2). This process was expanded to include other trained clinicians who were redeployed from other departments in the hospital. Repeat testing was performed to allow consideration of discontinuation of isolation precautions. During the surge of community cases from March 16 to April 30, 2020, we identified patients with negative PCR tests who subsequently had repeat testing based on clinical evaluation, with 7.1% (39/551) returning positive for SARS- CoV2. Of the patients who expired due to COVID-19 during this period, 4.3% (9/206) initially tested negative before ultimately testing positive. Figure 1 BH RO testing Epicurve Figure 2: Screening tool for repeat COVID19 testing and precautions Conclusion Many state and hospital initiatives helped us flatten the curve for COVID-19. Our hospital testing experience indicate that repeat testing may be warranted for those patients with clinical features suggestive of COVID-19. We will further analyze these cases and clinical features that prompted repeat testing. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals COVID-19 in conflict border regions: a case of South Kordofan, Sudan

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Quraish Sserwanja ◽  
Mohammed Bashir Adam ◽  
Joseph Kawuki ◽  
Emmanuel Olal
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mechanical Ventilators ◽  
Governmental Organizations ◽  
Non Governmental Organizations ◽  
Bed Capacity ◽  
Displaced People ◽  
Set Up ◽  
One Year ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
South Kordofan

AbstractThe novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in Sudan on 13 March 2020. Since then, Sudan has experienced one of the highest rates of COVID-19 spread and fatalities in Africa. One year later, as per 22 March 2021, Sudan had registered 29,661 confirmed cases and 2,028 deaths with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 6.8 %. By 12 December 2020, of the 18 states in Sudan, South Kordofan had the fifth highest CFR of 17.4 %, only surpassed by the other conflict affected North (57.5 %), Central (50.0 %) and East (31.8 %) Darfur States. By late March 2021, just three months from December 2020, the number of cases in South Kordofan increased by 100 %, but with a significant decline in the CFR from 17.4 to 8.5 %. South Kordofan is home to over 200,000 poor and displaced people from years of destructive civil unrests. To date, several localities such as the Nubba mountains region remain under rebel control and are not accessible. South Kordofan State Ministry of Health in collaboration with the federal government and non-governmental organizations set up four isolation centres with 40 total bed capacity, but with only two mechanical ventilators and no testing centre. There is still need for further multi-sectoral coalition and equitable allocation of resources to strengthen the health systems of rural and conflict affected regions. This article aims at providing insight into the current state of COVID-19 in South Kordofan amidst the second wave to address the dearth of COVID-19 information in rural and conflict affected regions.

scholarly journals 494. COVID-19 Outbreak: A Tale of Two Psych Units

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S313-S314
Author(s):  
Marilou Corpuz ◽  
Ruchika Jain ◽  
Gregory Weston ◽  
Priya Nori ◽  
Priya Nori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infection Control ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Early Period ◽  
Index Patient ◽  
Structural Aspect ◽  
Practice Change ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Inpatient Psychiatry ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Infection Control And Prevention

Abstract Background COVID infections in inpatient psychiatry units present unique challenges during the pandemic, including behavioral characteristics of the patients, structural aspect of the unit, type of therapy for the patients. We present COVID outbreaks in psychiatry units in two hospitals in our medical center in Bronx, NY, and describe our mitigation strategies. Methods Hosp A: In the early period of the pandemic in NY, 2 patients in the inpatient psychiatry unit tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 PCR. The unit was temporarily closed to new admissions. Hosp B: On 4/1, one of the patients in a 22 bed Psych unit, admitted since 3/10/20, developed fever, cough and tested positive for COVID-19 PCR. Two of her close contacts tested positive for SARS-COV-2 PCR. Results Hospital A: In total, 5 of the 29 patients (17.2%) in the unit were SARS-CoV-2 positive, all of whom were asymptomatic. Hospital B: Testing of the remaining patients showed positive PCR in 10/14. PCR tests of healthcare workers (HCW) were positive in 13/46. Except for the index patient, all the patients were asymptomatic but 32/46 HCW reported symptoms. One negative patient subsequently turned positive. Infection control and prevention strategies instituted in both hospitals were the same with subtle differences due to dissimilar burden of infection and structure of the units. Table 1 shows the timing of the outbreak and the rapid institution of preventive measures in each of the hospitals. There was still difficulty with patients regarding adherence. Some of the patients refused to stay in isolation and would roam. Compliance with masking and hand hygiene was problematic. Communication was of paramount importance. Multiple meetings were held between the Psychiatry staff, Infection Control and Prevention team, executive leadership of the hospital. Environmental Services and Engineering were also involved. Communications with the NY State Department of Health occurred frequently. Conclusion Strategies for management of COVID-19 patients in inpatient psychiatric units depends on the density of infected patients in the hospital and in the community. The implementation of practice change may need to be rapidly adjusted depending on the situation and available resources. Contingency plans should be formulated early on. Disclosures Gregory Weston, MD MSCR, Allergan (Grant/Research Support)

scholarly journals Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Almeida ◽  
T. N. Vilches ◽  
C. P. Ferreira ◽  
C. M. C. B. Fortaleza
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Control Disease ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Public Health Strategies

AbstractIn 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.

scholarly journals A Statistical Comparison of Novel Coronavirus Cases between the Philippines and South Korea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kianna Denise C. Villapando ◽  
Maria Angelica D. Bare ◽  
Francee Mae. F. Castro ◽  
Angelo Luis S. Doctora ◽  
William Davin D. Perez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Statistical Comparison ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

scholarly journals Geographic and demographic heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing in Illinois, USA, March to December 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias M. Holden ◽  
Reese A. K. Richardson ◽  
Philip Arevalo ◽  
Wayne A. Duffus ◽  
Manuela Runge ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diagnostic Testing ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Test Volume ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Demographic Heterogeneity ◽  
Large Expansion ◽  
Matched Case ◽  
Geographic Regions ◽  
Hispanic White

Abstract Background Availability of SARS-CoV-2 testing in the United States (U.S.) has fluctuated through the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, including in the U.S. state of Illinois. Despite substantial ramp-up in test volume, access to SARS-CoV-2 testing remains limited, heterogeneous, and insufficient to control spread. Methods We compared SARS-CoV-2 testing rates across geographic regions, over time, and by demographic characteristics (i.e., age and racial/ethnic groups) in Illinois during March through December 2020. We compared age-matched case fatality ratios and infection fatality ratios through time to estimate the fraction of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have been detected through diagnostic testing. Results By the end of 2020, initial geographic differences in testing rates had closed substantially. Case fatality ratios were higher in non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic/Latino populations in Illinois relative to non-Hispanic White populations, suggesting that tests were insufficient to accurately capture the true burden of COVID-19 disease in the minority populations during the initial epidemic wave. While testing disparities decreased during 2020, Hispanic/Latino populations consistently remained the least tested at 1.87 tests per 1000 population per day compared with 2.58 and 2.87 for non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White populations, respectively, at the end of 2020. Despite a large expansion in testing since the beginning of the first wave of the epidemic, we estimated that over half (50–80%) of all SARS-CoV-2 infections were not detected by diagnostic testing and continued to evade surveillance. Conclusions Systematic methods for identifying relatively under-tested geographic regions and demographic groups may enable policymakers to regularly monitor and evaluate the shifting landscape of diagnostic testing, allowing officials to prioritize allocation of testing resources to reduce disparities in COVID-19 burden and eventually reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

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