scholarly journals Multivariate Analysis of Factors Affecting COVID-19 Case and Death Rate in U.S. Counties: The Significant Effects of Black Race and Temperature

Author(s):  
Adam Y. Li ◽  
Theodore C Hannah ◽  
John Durbin ◽  
Nickolas Dreher ◽  
Fiona M McAuley ◽  
...  

AbstractObjectivesCoronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly around the world, and many risk factors including patient demographics, social determinants of health, environmental variables, underlying health conditions, and adherence to social distancing have been hypothesized to affect case and death rates. However, little has been done to account for the potential confounding effects of these factors. Using a large multivariate analysis, this study illuminates modulators of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in U.S. counties while controlling for risk factors across multiple domains.MethodsData on COVID-19 and various risk factors in all U.S. counties was collected from publicly available data sources through April 14, 2020. Counties with at least 50 COVID-19 cases were included in case analyses and those with at least 10 deaths were included in mortality models. The 661 counties meeting inclusion criteria for number of cases were grouped into quartiles and comparisons of risk factors were made using t-tests between the highest and lowest quartiles. Similar comparisons for 217 counties were made for above average and below average deaths/100,000. Adjusted linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the independent effects of factors that significantly impacted cases and deaths.ResultsUnivariate analyses demonstrated numerous significant differences between cohorts for both cases and deaths. Risk factors associated with increased cases and/or deaths per 100,000 included increased GDP per capita, decreased social distancing, increased age, increased percent Black, decreased percent Hispanic, decreased percent Asian, decreased health, increased poverty, increased diabetes, increased coronary heart disease, increased physical inactivity, increased alcohol consumption, increased tobacco use, and decreased access to primary care. Multivariate regression analyses demonstrated Black race is a risk factor for worse COVID-19 outcome independent of comorbidities, poverty, access to health care, and other mitigating factors. Lower daily temperatures was also an independent risk factor in case load but not deaths.ConclusionsU.S. counties with a higher proportion of Black residents are associated with increased COVID-19 cases and deaths. However, the various suggested mechanisms, such as socioeconomic and healthcare predispositions, did not appear to drive the effect of race in our model. Counties with higher average daily temperatures are also associated with decreased COVID-19 cases but not deaths. Several theories are posited to explain these findings, including prevalence of vitamin D deficiency. Additional studies are needed to further understand these effects.

QJM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 114 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eman Mahmoud Fathy Barakat ◽  
Khalid Mahmoud AbdAlaziz ◽  
Mohamed Mahmoud Mahmoud El Tabbakh ◽  
Mohamed Kamal Alden Ali

Abstract Background Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver malignancy and is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. In the United States, HCC is the ninth leading cause of cancer deaths. Despite advances in prevention techniques, screening, and new technologies in both diagnosis and treatment, incidence and mortality continue to rise. Cirrhosis remains the most important risk factor for the development of HCC regardless of etiology. Hepatitis B and C are independent risk factors for the development of cirrhosis. Alcohol consumption remains an important additional risk factor in the United States as alcohol abuse is five times higher than hepatitis C. Diagnosis is confirmed without pathologic confirmation. Screening includes both radiologic tests, such as ultrasound, computerized tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging, and serological markers such as αfetoprotein at 6-month interval. Aim To compare characteristics and behavior of Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic HCV patients and HVB patients Patients and Methods The current study was conducted on patients with de HCC presented at HCC clinic, Tropical medicine department Ain Shams University Hospitals between December 2017 and D ecember 2018, aged (18-70 years old) . Results eline characteristics of study population shown in Table 1 at enrolment, including gender, Education status, co-morbidity, underlying presence or absence of cirrhosis, Child-Pugh class of patients infected with viral hepatitis, and alpha-fetoprotein levels. Male proportion observed to be predominant in both HCV (62%) and HBV (75.4%) infected HCC population. Overall prevalence of HCV and HBV in patients having HCC was 65.95% and 34.04%, respectively. Presence of underlying liver cirrhosis was more significantly associated with HCV seropositives as compared to HBV seropositive patients (p0.05). Table 2 shows comparison of means between HCV and HBV seropositive patients with HCC. In univariate analysis, mean age difference (11.6 years), and total bilirubin levels (-1.91mg/dl) were the only statistically significant observations noted among HCV-HCC group (p = 0.05) Conclusion Hepatocellular carcinoma is mainly caused by Hepatitis C and Hepatitis B viruses, but latter showed predominance, comparatively worldwide and correlated HBV directly as a cause of HCC rather than HCV whose relation with HCC is still unclear (Shepard et al., 2006; Di Bisceglie, 2009). Because of the geographical differences and risk factors, the epidemiological burden of HCV and HBV has been observed different in different areas of the world. In developing countries due to high burden of HCV infection as compared to HBV such as in Taiwan (HCV 17.0%, HBV 13.8%) (Kao et al., 2011), Guam (HCV 19.6%, HBV 18%) (Haddock et al., 2013), and Pakistan (HCV 4.8%, HBV 2.5%) (Rehman et al., 1996; Raza et al., 2007; Qureshi et al., 2010; Butt et al., 2012;) will possibly


Author(s):  
Susanti Dwi Ariani ◽  
Dodik Tugasworo ◽  
Maria Imakulata Widiastuti Samekto

RISK FACTORS OF STROKE IN STAGE V CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE WHO UNDERWENT HEMODIALYSISABSTRACTIntroduction: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease are associated with a significantly in- creased risk of stroke. Incidence and mortality of stroke in CKD patients is higher rather than among the general popula- tion. Stroke in hemodialysis patients is also associated with high mortality.Aims: To analyze risk factors that have a relationship with the occurrence of stroke in patients with stage V CKD who underwent hemodialysis in Dr. Kariadi Hospital, Semarang.Method: A case control with retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with stage V CKD undergoing hemo- dialysis in Dr. Kariadi Hospital, Semarang, from March 2016 to August 2017. Subject was divided into case group, who experienced stroke, and control group, who did not experience stroke. Bivariate analysis was performed with Chi-square test, multivariate analysis with logistic regression test and rasio Odds.Results: There were 140 subjects with stage V CKD, 70 subjects in each groups. In case group, 85.7% experienced ischemic stroke while the rest hemorrhagic stroke. The duration of hemodialysis was related to the incidence of stroke. In multivariate analysis, patients with diabetes mellitus were more likely to have a stroke by 0.14 times compared to patients who did not have diabetes mellitus, and patients who underwent hemodialysis >12 months, were more likely to have a stroke 4.05 times greater than patients who underwent hemodialysis <12 months.Discussion: There is a relationship between diabetes mellitus and duration of hemodialysis with the occurrence of ischemic stroke, in stage V CKD patients who underwent hemodialysis.Keywords: Chronic kidney disease, hemodialysis, strokeABSTRAKPendahuluan: Penyakit ginjal kronik (PGK) dan penyakit ginjal stadium akhir terkait dengan peningkatan risiko yang signifikan dari stroke. Insiden dan mortalitas stroke pada pasien PGK lebih tinggi dibandingkan populasi umum. Stroke pada pasien dialisis juga dihubungkan dengan mortalitas yang tinggi.Tujuan: Untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor risiko yang memengaruhi terjadinya stroke pada pasien dengan PGK stadium V yang menjalani hemodialisis (HD) di RSUP Dr. Kariadi, Semarang.Metode: Penelitian kasus kontrol dengan pendekatan kohort retrospektif terhadap pasien penyakit ginjal kronik stadium V yang menjalani HD di RSUP Dr. Kariadi, Semarang dari bulan Maret 2016 hingga Agustus 2017. Subjek dibagi ke dalam kelompok kasus, yaitu yang mengalami stroke dan kelompok kontrol yang tidak mengalami stroke. Dilakukan analisis bivariat dengan uji Chi-square dan analisis multivariat dengan uji regresi logistik serta rasio Odds.Hasil: Didapatkan 140 subjek dengan PGK stadium V yang masing-masing kelompok terdiri dari 70 orang. Pada kelompok kasus, sebanyak 85,7% adalah stroke iskemik dan sisanya stroke hemoragik. Lama HD berhubungan dengan kejadian stroke. Pada uji multivariat, subjek yang menderita diabetes melitus (DM) berisiko mengalami stroke sebesar 0,14 kali dibandingkan yang tidak DM dan subjek yang menjalani HD >12 bulan berisiko mengalami stroke 4,05 kali lebih besar dibandingkan yang menjalani HD <12 bulan.Diskusi: Terdapat pengaruh faktor risiko DM dan lama hemodialisis terhadap kejadian stroke iskemik pada pasien PGK stadium V yang menjalani HD.Kata kunci: Hemodialisis, penyakit ginjal kronik, stroke


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Sato ◽  
Kengo Murata ◽  
Miake Yamamoto ◽  
Tsukasa Ishiwata ◽  
Miyako Kitazono-Saitoh ◽  
...  

AbstractThe bronchoscopy, though usually safe, is occasionally associated with complications, such as pneumonia. However, the use of prophylactic antibiotics is not recommended by the guidelines of the British Thoracic Society. Thus far there are few reports of the risk factors for post-bronchoscopy pneumonia; the purpose of this study was to evaluate these risk factors. We retrospectively collected data on patients in whom post-bronchoscopy pneumonia developed from the medical records of 2,265 patients who received 2666 diagnostic bronchoscopies at our institution between April 2006 and November 2011. Twice as many patients were enrolled in the control group as in the pneumonia group. The patients were matched for age and sex. In total, 37 patients (1.4%) had post-bronchoscopy pneumonia. Univariate analysis showed that a significantly larger proportion of patients in the pneumonia group had tracheobronchial stenosis (75.7% vs 18.9%, p < 0.01) and a final diagnosis of primary lung cancer (75.7% vs 43.2%, p < 0.01) than in the control group. The pneumonia group tended to have more patients with a history of smoking (83.8% vs 67.1%, p = 0.06) or bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) (4.3% vs 14.9%, p = 0.14) than the control group. In multivariate analysis, we found that tracheobronchial stenosis remained an independent risk factor for post-bronchoscopy pneumonia (odds ratio: 7.8, 95%CI: 2.5–24.2). In conclusion, tracheobronchial stenosis was identified as an independent risk factor for post-bronchoscopy pneumonia by multivariate analysis in this age- and sex- matched case control study.


Blood ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (21) ◽  
pp. 705-705
Author(s):  
Yu Wang ◽  
Xiao Jun Huang

Abstract Background many aspects should be considered when selecting an ideal donor. The progress made in haploidentical HSCT in recent years offers almost unlimited donor and availabilities of more than one donor at many occasions. To date, there have been no studies to answer the question of apart from HLA disparity, whether one donor should be preferred over another among various haploidentical donors available. The goal of the current study was to attempt to answer the question by analyzing the data on haploidentical HSCT without in-vitro T cell depletion modality. Methods Consecutive patients with leukemia or MDS who received HSCT from 3-5 of 6 HLA loci-matched family donors excluding collateral relatives between May 2002 and December 2010 were enrolled in this study (n=749). The stem cell source was G-CSF mobilized BM combined with PB. The conditioning regimen was modified BUCY plus ATG with 10mg/kg in total dosage. Patients receiving prophylactic DLI for prevention of leukemia relapse were excluded. Donor-recipient risk factors relevant to selection of optimal donor for haploidentical HCT were analyzed. Results (1)donor sex: male donor had lower incidence of both grade 2-4 (39% vs. 46%, p=.07) and grade 3-4 acute GVHD (aGVHD) (11% vs. 17%, p=.04), lower rate of NRM (16% vs. 24%, p=.006) and higher probabilities of OS (70% vs. 62%, p=.02) and LFS (67% vs. 60%, p=.03), compared with female donor. In multivariate analysis, donor sex was still a risk factor for GVHD, NRM and survival. However, if mother donor was excluded, all the difference became no longer significant. (2) Donor age: donor younger than 30 years old had lower incidence of both grade 2-4 (25% vs. 48%, p<.0001) and grade 3-4 aGVHD (5% vs. 16%, p=.0005), lower rate of NRM (12% vs. 22%, p=.007) and higher probabilities of OS (78% vs. 64%, p=.001) and LFS (76% vs. 64%, p=.002), compared with donor older than 30 years old. In multivariate analysis, donor age was a more prominent risk factor for GVHD, NRM and survival compared with donor sex. And if mother donor was excluded, all the difference remained significant both in univariate and multivariate analysis. (3)The rate of GVHD was not associated with the extent of HLA disparity or any individual allele disparity. (4) comparison between mother and father: father donor had lower incidence of both grade 2-4 (45% vs. 56%, p=.03) and grade 3-4 aGVHD (13% vs. 22%, p=.007), lower rate of NRM (14% vs. 26%, p=.003) and higher probabilities of OS (70% vs. 57%, p=.007) and LFS (67% vs. 57%, p=.03), compared with mother donor. In multivariate analysis, mother donor was still a risk factor for GVHD, NRM and survival. (5) comparison between offspring and sibling: offspring donor had significant lower incidence of grade 2-4 aGVHD (16% vs. 37%, p=.002), lower NRM and higher survival, although not reaching statistical significance, compared with sibling donor. In multivariate analysis, sibling donor was still a risk factor for GVHD. (6) comparison among sibling and father donors: donor older than 30 years old was the most important risk factor affecting GVHD, NRM and survival while the rates between father and sibling donor were comparable. Conclusions Not abiding by the rule of HLA disparity, this study was the first one to confirm that significant different outcomes were achieved among various haploidentical donors and proved once again that haploidentical HSCT overcame HLA barriers. Instead of HLA disparity, donor age and the family relationship were important risk factors under our treatment modality. The underlying mechanisms of crossing human leukocyte antigen barriers need further investigation and to be validated by other treatment modalities. Figure impact of donor age and family relationship on GVHD This work was partly supported by The Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 81230013), Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission (No.Z121107002812033) and Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission(No. Z121107002612035). Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 10032-10032
Author(s):  
M. S. Cairo ◽  
R. Sposto ◽  
M. Gerrard ◽  
I. Waxman ◽  
S. Goldman ◽  
...  

10032 Background: We recently reported the results in C & A with low risk (group A), intermediate risk (group B) and high risk (group C) mature B-NHL treated on FAB/LMB 96 (Gerrard et al, Br J Haematol, 2008; Patte et al, Blood, 2007; Cairo et al, Blood, 2007, respectively). Adolescent age (15–21 yrs) has historically been considered to be an independent risk factor for poor outcome in subsets of mature B-NHL (Hochberg/Cairo et al, Br J Haematol, 2008; Burkhardt et al, Br J Haematol 2005; Cairo et al, Br J Haematol, 2003). Methods: We analyzed the EFS of all pts treated on FAB/LMB 96 and the following risk factors were significant in a univariate and Cox multivariate analysis: age (<15 vs ≥15 yrs), stage I/II vs III/IV, primary sites, LDH <2 vs ≥2 NL and histology (DLBCL vs BL/BLL). Results: 1111 pts (15%, 15–21 years) were treated with group A (N = 132), group B (N = 744), and group C (N = 235) therapy. Five year EFS (CI95) for all, A, B, C pts was 86% (84%,88%), 98% (93%, 100%), 87%% (84%, 89%), and 79%% (73%,84%), respectively. Age (≥15 yrs), LDH ≥2NL, stage III/IV, and BM+/CNS+ and histology were significant univariate risk factors for decreased EFS (P<0.045, <0.0001, <0.0001, <0.0001, and <0.0001 respectively). Multivariate analysis demonstrated age ≥15 yrs and DLBCL histology were no longer independent significant risk factors (p = .82 and 0.08, respectively), but LDH (RR 2.0, p = .001), stage III/IV (RR 3.8, p<0.001), and primary sites including PMBL (RR 4.0, p<.001) and BM+/CNS+ (RR 2.8, p<0.001) were independent significant risk factors for poorer outcome. Conclusions: With the use of modern short but intense FAB-LMB 96 therapy, adolescent age is no longer a poor risk factor in children with mature B-NHL. The independent risk factors identified in this study (stage, LDH, primary site) for decreased EFS in C & A mature B-NHL will form the basis of the next risk adapted international pediatric mature B-NHL trial. No significant financial relationships to disclose.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 19-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hayato Omori ◽  
Yuichiro Miki ◽  
Wataru Takagi ◽  
Fumiko Hirata ◽  
Taichi Tatsubayashi ◽  
...  

19 Background: Peritoneal recurrence is often observed in gastric cancer patients without serosal invasion. It is difficult for pathologists to evaluate whether tumor cells penetrate serosa or not, because the subserosa layer is very thin. We evaluated the incidence and risk factors of peritoneal recurrence in serosa -negative gastric cancer patients to clarify the mechanism of peritoneal recurrence in these patients. Methods: A total of 1,745 gastric cancer patients underwent R0 resection from 2002 to 2009 were enrolled. The incidence of peritoneal recurrence according to tumor depth was analyzed. In serosa-nagative patients, the univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the risk factors for peritoneal recurrence. Results: Peritoneal recurrence was observed in 64 (3.7 %) out of 1,745 patients. The incidence of peritoneal recurrence according to depth of tumor invasion was in 0 / 466 in T1a, 5 / 567 (0.88 %) in T1b, 4 / 187 (2.1 %) in T2, 31 / 360 (7.9 %) in T3, 20 / 108 (15.9 %) in T4a, and 4 / 12 (25 %) in T4b, respectively (p<0.001). As for the risk factor for peritoneal recurrence in T3 patients, histologically undifferentiated type, negative lymphatic invasion, scirrhous type, invasive infiltrating growth pattern were the significant factors identified by univariate analysis. Only the invasive infiltrating growth pattern (OR3.44 p0.038) was selected as significant independent risk factor for peritoneal recurrence by multivariate analysis. In T1b / T2 patients, massive lymph node metastasis (N3a, 3b), scirrhous type were the significant factor for peritoneal recurrence by univariate analysis. Only massive lymph node metastasis (OR25.1 p<0.001) was selected as the significant independent risk factor by multivariate analysis. Conclusions: The incidence of peritoneal recurrence increases in proportion to the tumor depth. Invasive infiltrating growth pattern was selected as an independent risk factor for peritoneal recurrence in T3 patients, while it was massive lymph node metastasis in T1b / T2 patients. The results suggest the possibility that microscopic serosal invasion in T3 tumor and lymphatic progression in T1b / T2 tumor may contribute to peritoneal recurrence in gastric cancer.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Po-Han Chen ◽  
Chun-Fang Tung ◽  
Yen-Chung Peng ◽  
Hong-Zen Yeh ◽  
Chi-Sen Chang ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundWe investigated whether duodenal major papilla morphology could be a risk factor for failure of selective biliary cannulation (SBC) and post endoscopic retrograde cholangiography and pancreatography (ERCP) complications.MethodsA prospectively recorded database was reviewed retrospectively. Patients were included if they received therapeutic ERCP and had naïve major duodenal papilla. We used Haraldsson’s classification for papilla morphology, as follows: Regular (Type 1), Small (Type 2), Protruding or Pendulous (Type 3) and Creased or Ridged (Type 4). Risk factors for failing SBC and post-ERCP complications were analyzed by multivariate analysis.ResultsA total of 286 cases were included. Age, gender, indications and therapeutic procedures were not different among the four types of papillae. The failure rates of SBC with Type 3 papilla and Type 4 papilla were 11.11% and 6.25%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, Type 2 papilla (odd ratio 7.18, p= 0.045) and Type 3 papilla (odd ratio 7.44, p= 0.016) were associated with greater SBC failure compared with Type 1 papilla. Malignant obstruction compared to stone (odds ratio 4.45, p=0.014) and age (odd ratio=1.06, p=0.010) were also risk factors for cannulation failure. Type 2 papilla was correlated with a higher rate of post-ERCP pancreatitis (20%, p=0.020) compared to the other types of papilla However, papilla morphology was not a significant risk factor for any complications in the multivariate analysis.ConclusionSmall papilla and protruding or pendulous papilla are more difficult to cannulate compared to regular papilla. Small papilla is associated with a higher rate of post-ERCP pancreatitis.


Author(s):  
Akbar N D Saputra ◽  
Agustria Z Shaleh ◽  
Patiyus Agustiansyah ◽  
Theodorus Theodorus

Abstract Objective: to determine risk factors inhydatidiform mole patients who will develop into Gestational Trophoblast Neoplasm (GTN) in Dr.Mohammad Hoesin Hospital Palembang Method: An observational analytical study with case control design was conducted in Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology in Dr. Mohammad Hoesin Hospital Palembang / Faculty of Medicine Sriwijaya University Palembang from January 2017 to August 2017. The frequency and distribution of data are described in tables. Bivariate analysis was done to determine correlation between independent variable and dependent variable using Chi Square/Fisher Exact test and multivariate analysis  was used to know which independent variable has the biggest influence to the occurrence of Gestational TrophoblastNeoplasm (GTN) post evacuation of hydatidiform mole. Data analysis was done using SPSS version 21.0. Results: There were 45 patients who fulfilled inclusion criteria with control group and case group ratio 1 : 2 (15 cases and 30 controls). Statistical analysis showed a significant correlation between patient age, pre-evacuation β HCG level, parity, and histopathologic appearance with occurrence of Gestational Trophoblast Neoplasm (GTN) after evacuation of hydatidiform mole (p <0,05). From multivariate analysis, it was found that pre-evacuation β HCG levels ≥ 134,182.5 mIU/ml was a risk factor of Gestational Trophoblast Neoplasm (OR = 77.008, p value = 0.004). Conclusion: Pre-evacuation β HCG levels ≥ 134,182.5 mIU / ml is a risk factor for the occurrence of Gestational Trophoblast Neoplasm (GTN). Keywords: Hydatidiform mole, GTN, age, pre-evacuation β HCG level, parity, uterine size, blood type, hysthopathology feature


2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-234
Author(s):  
Eugène Ndirahisha ◽  
Patrice Barasukana ◽  
Joseph Nyandwi ◽  
Sébastien Manirakiza ◽  
Rhamadhan Nyandwi ◽  
...  

Relevance . Noncommunicable diseases are a serious public health problem due to their high incidence and mortality rate. Globally, noncommunicable diseases cause 41 million deaths every year, accounting for 71% of the total number of deaths. Cardiovascular diseases, accounting for 44% of all noncommunicable diseases, are the leading causes of death. Early identification of the main risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and treatment of associated diseases are a prerequisite for maintaining the health of the population. Objective: To identify the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease in patients living in rural areas of the mountainous region and attending the Mabayi District Hospital in Burundi. Patients and Methods . An open-label retrospective study conducted at the Mabayi District Hospital in Burundi from January 2014 to December 2017. The study included patients whose medical examination revealed at least one risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. The study was approved by the ethics committee of the Kamenge University Hospital and the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Burundi. Data analysis was carried out using Microsoft Word 2007 and Epi-Info TM 7.2.1.0 software. Results and Discussion . Among the 20 297 examined patients, the average age was 50 16.7 years, the extreme values were 14 and 101 years. Male patients accounted for 51.1%. 903 patients (4.5%) had at least one risk factor. The main risk factors were high blood pressure (52.6%), diabetes (42.0%) and alcohol abuse (27.4%). Conclusion . Residents of rural areas of the mountainous region of Burundi have a high frequency of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, which must be taken into account when organizing medical and preventive measures to prevent cardiovascular diseases.


Author(s):  
Mitsuhiro Kinoshita ◽  
Shoichiro Takao ◽  
Junichiro Hiraoka ◽  
Katsuya Takechi ◽  
Yoko Akagawa ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose To evaluate the risk factors for unsuccessful removal of a central venous access port (CV port) implanted in the forearm of adult oncologic patients. Materials and methods This study included 97 adult oncologic patients (51 males, 46 females; age range, 30–88 years; mean age, 63.7 years) in whom removal of a CV port implanted in the forearm was attempted at our hospital between January 2015 and May 2021. Gender, age at removal, body mass index, and diagnosis were examined as patient characteristics; and indwelling period, indwelling side, and indication for removal were examined as factors associated with removal of a CV port. These variables were compared between successful and unsuccessful cases using univariate analysis. Then, multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for unsuccessful removal of a CV port using variables with a significant difference in the univariate analysis. A receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve was drawn for significant risk factors in the multivariate analysis and the Youden index was used to determine the optimum cut-off value for predicting unsuccessful removal of a CV port. Results Removal of CV ports was successful in 79 cases (81.4%), but unsuccessful in 18 cases (18.6%) due to fixation of the catheter to the vessel wall. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the indwelling period (odds ratio 1.048; 95% confidence interval 1.026–1.070; P < 0.0001) was a significant independent risk factor for unsuccessful removal of a CV port. ROC analysis showed that the cut-off value for successful removal was 41 months, and 54% of cases with an indwelling period > 60 months had unsuccessful removal. Conclusion The indwelling period is an independent risk factor for unsuccessful removal of a CV port implanted in the forearm of adult oncologic patients, with a cut-off of 41 months.


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