scholarly journals Estimating the impact of physical distancing measures in containing COVID-19: an empirical analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wee Chian Koh ◽  
Lin Naing ◽  
Justin Wong
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Epidemic Modelling ◽  
Working From Home ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

AbstractBackgroundEpidemic modelling studies predict that physical distancing is critical in containing COVID-19. However, few empirical studies have validated this finding. Our study evaluates the effectiveness of different physical distancing measures in controlling viral transmission.MethodsWe identified three distinct physical distancing measures with varying intensity and implemented at different times—international travel controls, restrictions on mass gatherings, and lockdown-type measures—based on the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. We also estimated the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) for 142 countries and tracked Rt temporally for two weeks following the 100th reported case in each country. We regressed Rt on the physical distancing measures and other control variables (income, population density, age structure, and temperature) and performed several robustness checks to validate our findings.FindingsComplete travel bans and all forms of lockdown-type measures have been effective in reducing average Rt over the 14 days following the 100th case. Recommended stay-at-home advisories and partial lockdowns are as effective as complete lockdowns in outbreak control. However, these measures have to be implemented early to be effective. Lockdown-type measures should be instituted two weeks before the 100th case and travel bans about a week before detection of the first case.InterpretationA combination of physical distancing measures, if implemented early, can be effective in containing COVID-19—tight border controls to limit importation of cases, encouraging physical distancing, moderately stringent measures such as working from home, and a full lockdown in the case of a probable uncontrolled outbreak.Research in contextEvidence before this studyEvidence on the impact of physical distancing measures on containing COVID-19 has primarily relied on epidemic modelling studies. As cases accumulate worldwide, it has become possible to use empirical data to validate the model-based findings. The few empirical studies that analyze global case data find that lockdowns and international travel restrictions are important, but have not explored, beyond these broad findings, the intensity and timeliness of the various measures to inform policymaking.Added value of this studyWe assessed, at a normalized stage of the epidemic curve, how the intensity and implementation timing of various physical distancing measures in 142 countries affect viral transmission, measured by the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). Other similar empirical studies treat the measures as binary variables, do not address the potential confounding effect of increased caseload on transmission, and do not use Rt as the primary metric.Implications of all the available evidenceOur results support the findings in modelling studies, and subsequent empirical studies, that physical distancing measures can limit disease spread. We found that full border control and complete lockdowns are effective, but less stringent measures such as stay-at-home recommendations and working from home are as effective. As such, the framing of lockdown measures as a binary approach may be counterproductive. Overall, these measures are only effective if they are implemented early.

scholarly journals Impact of physical distancing policy on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 globally: Perspective from government’s response and residents’ compliance

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0255873
Author(s):  
Ping-Chen Chung ◽  
Ta-Chien Chan
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
International Travel ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Lag Effects ◽  
Local Transmission ◽  
At Home

Background COVID-19 was declared a public health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO) in January 2020. Various physical distancing interventions were introduced to flatten the epidemic curve and reduce the disease burden. We evaluated the impacts of policy stringency and residents’ compliance on time-varying reproduction number in 17 countries. Methods Data were from WHO reports of local transmission (February 28 to April 8, 2020) in Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, the UK, US and Vietnam. Earlier local transmission data where available from press releases were added for Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan starting January 28, 2020. COVID-19 policy responses were from the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker with 17 indicators. Changes in people’s behaviors were from Google’s COVID-19 community mobility reports and Apple Maps’ mobility trends reports. We estimated the daily time-varying reproduction number (Rt) by country. 0-, 7- and 14-day lagged effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions and changes in human mobility on Rt were estimated by linear mixed-effects models. Results Rt initially surged rapidly, then declined gradually depending on policy stringency. The highest mean policy stringency scores were for Italy (69.97) and South Korea (61.00). Variations in stringency scores were higher in Europe, the US and Australia than in Asia. The human mobility reduction was greater in countries with strict policies (median stringency score > = 50). In terms of immediate (0-day lag) effects, Rt reductions were found for workplace-closure, limited-gathering, and stay-at-home policies. At a 7-day lag, Rt reductions were found for workplace closure, restrictions on gatherings, stay-at-home requirements, international travel controls, contact tracing and reducing walking around. At a 14-day lag, Rt reductions were found for restrictions on gatherings, less visiting and staying in parks, and reduced walking around. Conclusion The findings show physical distancing policies and residents’ compliance can slow transmission, with the lag-to-effect time varying by policy.

scholarly journals COVID-19 prevalence and predictors in United States adults during peak stay-at-home orders

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0245586
Author(s):  
Robert Morlock ◽  
Amy Morlock ◽  
Martha Downen ◽  
Sonali N. Shah
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Severity ◽  
Early Recognition ◽  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Total Sample ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Background Early recognition of COVID-19 cases is essential for effective public health measures aimed at isolation of individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS–COV-2). The objective of this study was to describe characteristics, self-reported symptoms, and predictors of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection in a community-based sample. Methods and findings This was a cross-sectional nationwide survey of adults in the US conducted between April 24 through May 13, 2020. The survey targeted a representative sample of approximately 5,000 respondents. The rate of COVID-19 cases and testing, most frequently reported symptoms, symptom severity, treatment received, impact of COVID-19 on mental and physical health, and factors predictive of testing positive were assessed. Most of the 5,203 participants (85.6%) reported no COVID-19-like symptoms. Of the 747 (14.5%) participants reporting COVID-19-like symptoms, 367 (49.1%) obtained a diagnostic test. Eighty-nine participants (24.3%) reported a positive COVID-19 test result, representing 1.7% of the total sample. For those testing positive, the most common symptoms were dry cough, fever, and shortness of breath/difficulty breathing. Those who tested positive were more likely to report greater symptom severity versus those who tested negative. Severe dry cough, new loss of taste or smell, trouble waking up, living with someone experiencing symptoms, recent international travel, respiratory issues, and reporting ethnicity of Black or African American were predictive of testing positive. Conclusions This study assessed the impact of COVID-19 using community-level self-reported data across the US during the peak of most stay at home’ orders. Self-reported symptoms and risk factors identified in this study are consistent with the clinical profile emerging for COVID-19. In the absence of widespread testing, this study demonstrates the utility of a representative US community-based sample to provide direct-reported symptoms and outcomes to quickly identify high-risk individuals who are likely to test positive and should consider taking greater precautions.

scholarly journals The Impact of Telework and Closure of Educational and Childcare Facilities on Working People During COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 202-214
Author(s):  
Michèle Rieth ◽  
Vera Hagemann
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Conservation Of Resources ◽  
Loss Of Control ◽  
Home Office ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Working From Home ◽  
Working People ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Abstract. This study examines the impact of telework and closure of educational and childcare facilities on working people during COVID-19. We compare telework versus nontelework conditions and people with and without stay-at-home children. Data from 465 working people in Germany were collected via an online survey. People who do not work from home experience more stress, more negative and less positive affect, less life satisfaction and trust in government, and less loss of control over career success than those working from home. Concerning the conservation of resources theory, working from home can thus be seen as a resource gain, representing, in accordance with the self-regulation theory, a way to deal with pandemic threats. However, home office only seems to be beneficial if working conditions at home are supportive; otherwise, it is experienced as a resource threat or loss, especially with stay-at-home children.

scholarly journals The impact of behavioral interventions on co-infection dynamics: an exploration of the effects of home isolation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana M Hendrickx ◽  
Steven Abrams ◽  
Niel Hens
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Behavioral Changes ◽  
The Other ◽  
Final Size ◽  
Joint Dynamics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Staying At Home ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters ◽  
At Home

AbstractBehavioral changes due to the development of symptoms have been studied in mono-infections. However, in reality, multiple infections are circulating within the same time period and behavioral changes resulting from contraction of one of the diseases affect the dynamics of the other.The present study aims at assessing the effect of home isolation on the joint dynamics of two infectious diseases, including co-infection, assuming that the two diseases do not confer cross-immunity. We use an age- and time- structured co-infection model based on partial differential equations. Social contact matrices, describing different mixing patterns of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals are incorporated into the calculation of the age- and time-specific marginal forces of infection.Two scenarios are simulated, assuming that one of the diseases has more severe symptoms than the other. In the first scenario, people stay only at home when having symptoms of the most severe disease. In the second scenario, twice as many people stay at home when having symptoms of the most severe disease than when having symptoms of the other disease.The results show that the impact of home isolation on the joint dynamics of two infectious diseases depends on the epidemiological parameters and properties of the diseases (e.g., basic reproduction number, symptom severity). In case both diseases have a low to moderate basic reproduction number, and there is no home isolation for the less severe disease, the final size of the less severe disease increases with the proportion of symptomatic cases of the most severe disease staying at home, after an initial decrease. When twice as many people stay at home when having symptoms of the most severe disease than when having symptoms of the other disease, increasing the proportion staying at home always reduces the final size of both diseases, and the number of co-infections.In conclusion, when providing advise if people should stay at home in the context of two or more co-circulating diseases, one has to take into account epidemiological parameters and symptom severity.

scholarly journals Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 using national and subnational case counts

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Abbott ◽  
Joel Hellewell ◽  
Robin N. Thompson ◽  
Katharine Sherratt ◽  
Hamish P. Gibbs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
The Impact

Background: Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating the impact of changes in policy. Methods: We use case and death notification data to generate daily estimates of the time-varying reproduction number globally, regionally, nationally, and subnationally over a 12-week rolling window. Our modelling framework, based on open source tooling, accounts for uncertainty in reporting delays, so that the reproduction number is estimated based on underlying latent infections. Results: Estimates of the reproduction number, trajectories of infections, and forecasts are displayed on a dedicated website as both maps and time series, and made available to download in tabular form. Conclusions:  This decision-support tool can be used to assess changes in virus transmission both globally, regionally, nationally, and subnationally. This allows public health officials and policymakers to track the progress of the outbreak in near real-time using an epidemiologically valid measure. As well as providing regular updates on our website, we also provide an open source tool-set so that our approach can be used directly by researchers and policymakers on confidential data-sets. We hope that our tool will be used to support decisions in countries worldwide throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
◽  
Christian Morgenstern ◽  
James Kelly ◽  
Rachel Lowe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
International Travel ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Temporal Association ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Temporal Clustering ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are used to reduce transmission of SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of specific NPIs has been inconsistent. We assessed the effectiveness of NPIs around internal containment and closure, international travel restrictions, economic measures, and health system actions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 130 countries and territories. Methods We used panel (longitudinal) regression to estimate the effectiveness of 13 categories of NPIs in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using data from January to June 2020. First, we examined the temporal association between NPIs using hierarchical cluster analyses. We then regressed the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 against different NPIs. We examined different model specifications to account for the temporal lag between NPIs and changes in Rt, levels of NPI intensity, time-varying changes in NPI effect, and variable selection criteria. Results were interpreted taking into account both the range of model specifications and temporal clustering of NPIs. Results There was strong evidence for an association between two NPIs (school closure, internal movement restrictions) and reduced Rt. Another three NPIs (workplace closure, income support, and debt/contract relief) had strong evidence of effectiveness when ignoring their level of intensity, while two NPIs (public events cancellation, restriction on gatherings) had strong evidence of their effectiveness only when evaluating their implementation at maximum capacity (e.g. restrictions on 1000+ people gathering were not effective, restrictions on < 10 people gathering were). Evidence about the effectiveness of the remaining NPIs (stay-at-home requirements, public information campaigns, public transport closure, international travel controls, testing, contact tracing) was inconsistent and inconclusive. We found temporal clustering between many of the NPIs. Effect sizes varied depending on whether or not we included data after peak NPI intensity. Conclusion Understanding the impact that specific NPIs have had on SARS-CoV-2 transmission is complicated by temporal clustering, time-dependent variation in effects, and differences in NPI intensity. However, the effectiveness of school closure and internal movement restrictions appears robust across different model specifications, with some evidence that other NPIs may also be effective under particular conditions. This provides empirical evidence for the potential effectiveness of many, although not all, actions policy-makers are taking to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Swapnil Mishra ◽  
James A. Scott ◽  
Daniel J. Laydon ◽  
Seth Flaxman ◽  
Axel Gandy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Counterfactual Approach

AbstractThe UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mortality in each country, using a counterfactual assessment: what would the impact have been, had each country adopted the others’ policies? Using a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model without prior assumptions on the mechanism or effectiveness of interventions, we estimate the time-varying reproduction number for the UK, Sweden and Denmark from daily mortality data. We use two approaches to evaluate counterfactuals which transpose the transmission profile from one country onto another, in each country’s first wave from 13th March (when stringent interventions began) until 1st July 2020. UK mortality would have approximately doubled had Swedish policy been adopted, while Swedish mortality would have more than halved had Sweden adopted UK or Danish strategies. Danish policies were most effective, although differences between the UK and Denmark were significant for one counterfactual approach only. Our analysis shows that small changes in the timing or effectiveness of interventions have disproportionately large effects on total mortality within a rapidly growing epidemic.

scholarly journals Impact of Remote Working on Human Resource Management: The Role of IT in the COVID-19 ERA

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Md Habibur Rahman ◽  
S. M. Mahbubur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Human Resource Management ◽  
Organizational Performance ◽  
Human Resource ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Working At Home ◽  
Working From Home ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Working from home approaches are adopted by organizations to different extents during the COVID-19 Pandemic across the world. Basically, it is related to the organizational performance viewpoint- where the impact of COVID-19 on human resource management is obvious inside and outside the ICT environment. Therefore, in this paper, some aspects of human resource management are investigated to see the impact of working from home on HRM especially in a pandemic situation. The absence and non-adoption of ICT in different organizations explain why some organizations are away from performing their regular human resource management activities during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. We interviewed 487 workers performing HRM functions either working at home or involved in office space working while approached 642 workers. The paper contributes to HRM functions by providing an understanding of the substitution of remote working during crisis situations. The shifting of remote working results in positive and negative effects on organizational and individual aspects of HRM.  We, therefore, conclude that remote working helps HR planning, recruitment and selection, meeting, and work schedule. Further, remote working strategies help work flexibility, improve health and safety, reduce commuting time, improve work autonomy and work/life balance within stay-at-home order to handle post-covid-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Kucharski ◽  
Petra Klepac ◽  
Andrew Conlan ◽  
Stephen Kissler ◽  
Maria Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Household Work ◽  
School Work ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Transmission Reduction ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Containment Measure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractBackgroundIsolation of symptomatic cases and tracing of contacts has been used as an early COVID-19 containment measure in many countries, with additional physical distancing measures also introduced as outbreaks have grown. To maintain control of infection while also reducing disruption to populations, there is a need to understand what combination of measures – including novel digital tracing approaches and less intensive physical distancing – may be required to reduce transmission.MethodsUsing a model of individual-level transmission stratified by setting (household, work, school, other) based on BBC Pandemic data from 40,162 UK participants, we simulated the impact of a range of different testing, isolation, tracing and physical distancing scenarios. As well as estimating reduction in effective reproduction number, we estimated, for a given level of COVID-19 incidence, the number of contacts that would be newly quarantined each day under different strategies.ResultsUnder optimistic but plausible assumptions, we estimated that combined testing and tracing strategies would reduce transmission more than mass testing or self-isolation alone (50–65% compared to 2–30%). If limits are placed on gatherings outside of home/school/work (e.g. maximum of 4 daily contacts in other settings), then manual contact tracing of acquaintances only could have a similar effect on transmission reduction as detailed contact tracing. In a scenario where there were 10,000 new symptomatic cases per day, we estimated in most contact tracing strategies, 140,000 to 390,000 contacts would be newly quarantined each day.ConclusionsConsistent with previous modelling studies and country-specific COVID-19 responses to date, our analysis estimates that a high proportion of cases would need to self-isolate and a high proportion of their contacts to be successfully traced to ensure an effective reproduction number that is below one in the absence of other measures. If combined with moderate physical distancing measures, self-isolation and contact tracing would be more likely to achieve control.FundingWellcome Trust, EPSRC, European Commission.

scholarly journals Food Safety and Foodborne Disease in the 21stCentury

2003 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 277-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Scott
Keyword(s):  
Food Safety ◽  
Healthcare Delivery ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Foodborne Illness ◽  
Preschool Age ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Foodborne Disease ◽  
Daycare Centre ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Over the past decade there has been a growing recognition of the involvement of the home in several public health and hygiene issues. Perhaps the best understood of these issues is the role of the home in the transmission and acquisition of foodborne disease. The incidence of foodborne disease is increasing globally. Although foodborne disease data collection systems often miss the mass of home-based outbreaks of sporadic infection, it is now accepted that many cases of foodborne illness occur as a result of improper food handling and preparation by consumers in their own kitchens. Some of the most compelling evidence has come from the international data onSalmonellaspecies andCampylobacterspecies infections.By its very nature, the home is a multifunctional setting and this directly impacts upon the need for better food safety in the home. In particular, the growing population of elderly and other immnocompromised individuals living at home who are likely to be more vulnerable to the impact of foodborne disease is an important aspect to consider. In addition, some developed nations are currently undergoing a dramatic shift in healthcare delivery, resulting in millions of patients nursed at home. Other aspects of the home that are unique in terms of food safety are the use of the home as a daycare centre for preschool age children, the presence of domestic animals in the home and the use of the domestic kitchen for small-scale commercial catering operations. At the global level, domestic food safety issues for the 21stcentury include the continued globalization of the food supply, the impact of international travel and tourism, and the impact of foodborne disease on developing nations.A number of countries have launched national campaigns to reduce the burden of foodborne disease, including alerting consumers to the need to practice food safety at home. Home hygiene practice and consumer hygiene products are being refined and targeted to areas of risk, including preventing the onward transmission of foodborne illness via the inanimate environment. It has been said that food safety in the home is the last line of defense against foodborne disease, and it is likely that this will remain true for the global population in the foreseeable future.

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