scholarly journals SEDRA: Selective Entry Dynamic Risk Assessment A mathematical model to safely keep the borders open during Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvano de Gennaro ◽  
Håkan Lane ◽  
Radhakhrishna Somanah
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Universal Method ◽  
Safety Index ◽  
New Variant ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
The Status ◽  
Reporting Data

1.AbstractThe Covid-19 pandemic has brought the World to a near standstill for most of 2020 and 2021, causing chaos in international travel, driving many economies into the ground, particularly those largely based on tourism. The lack of standard tools to assist decision makers in structuring a coherent policy to allow foreign passengers into their county and the resulting panic-mode opening/closing the borders on every “new case” outburst or new variant “of concern”, have led several countries to costly and often meaningless decisions based on fear rather than science or logic. This study aims at providing a universal method to safely keep the borders open and allow conditional immigration to foreign passengers according to a “Risk Group” table that includes all the countries reporting data on their Covid-19 situation to the WHO and other organisms. The RG table is recalculated on a weekly basis according to a mathematical model described in this paper, dynamically assessing the status of the pandemic worldwide through the calculation of a “Safety Index” for each country. A prototype algorithm has been implemented in VBA/EXCEL and its results are published bi-weekly on a Github repository.

scholarly journals A Comeback of Wind Power in Shipping: An Economic and Operational Review on the Wind-Assisted Ship Propulsion Technology

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1880
Author(s):  
Todd Chou ◽  
Vasileios Kosmas ◽  
Michele Acciaro ◽  
Katharina Renken
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Ship Propulsion ◽  
Fuel Savings ◽  
Technological Growth ◽  
The Status ◽  
Promising Solution

Wind-assisted ship propulsion (WASP) technology seems to be a promising solution toward accelerating the shipping industry’s decarbonization efforts as it uses wind to replace part of the propulsive power generated from fossil fuels. This article discusses the status quo of the WASP technological growth within the maritime transport sector by means of a secondary data review analysis, presents the potential fuel-saving implications, and identifies key factors that shape the operational efficiency of the technology. The analysis reveals three key considerations. Firstly, despite the existing limited number of WASP installations, there is a promising trend of diffusion of the technology within the industry. Secondly, companies can achieve fuel savings, which vary depending on the technology installed. Thirdly, these bunker savings are influenced by environmental, on-board, and commercial factors, which presents both opportunities and challenges to decision makers.

Nonrepresentative Representatives: An Experimental Study of the Decision Making of Elected Politicians

2017 ◽  
Vol 112 (2) ◽  
pp. 302-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
LIOR SHEFFER ◽  
PETER JOHN LOEWEN ◽  
STUART SOROKA ◽  
STEFAAN WALGRAVE ◽  
TAMIR SHEAFER
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Direct Evidence ◽  
Sunk Costs ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Personality Profiles ◽  
Future Time ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
The Status ◽  
Considerable Body

A considerable body of work in political science is built upon the assumption that politicians are more purposive, strategic decision makers than the citizens who elect them. At the same time, other work suggests that the personality profiles of office seekers and the environment they operate in systematically amplifies certain choice anomalies. These contrasting perspectives persist absent direct evidence on the reasoning characteristics of representatives. We address this gap by administering experimental decision tasks to incumbents in Belgium, Canada, and Israel. We demonstrate that politicians are as or more subject to common choice anomalies when compared to nonpoliticians: they exhibit a stronger tendency to escalate commitment when facing sunk costs, they adhere more to policy choices that are presented as the status-quo, their risk calculus is strongly subject to framing effects, and they exhibit distinct future time discounting preferences. This has obvious implications for our understanding of decision making by elected politicians.

scholarly journals Urinary incontinence as the socioeconomic problem

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 62-66
Author(s):  
Krystyna Klimaszewska ◽  
Mariola Bartusek
Keyword(s):  
Urinary Incontinence ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Health Needs ◽  
Public Funds ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Status ◽  
Costs Of Treatment ◽  
Social Discomfort

Abstract Introduction. Urinary incontinence, meaning irrespective of will leakage of urine, is a serious health problem, and has the status of social disease basing on the epidemiological data concerning number of affected populations suffering from it Taking into consideration the chronic character of the disease and increasing social discomfort including social exclusion, the costs of treatment and rehabilitation should be lower so patients could improve the quality of their lives in other aspects. That is why it is important to deeply analyze the costs of urinary incontinence in terms of diagnostics, treatment and rehabilitation. Aim. Costs analysis related to diagnostics and treatment of urinary incontinence incurred by patient, or co-financed/funded by the National Health Fund on the basis of the literature review. Summary. The few but regularly prepared reports show that there is a clear need for changes in the funding of services provided to patients with health needs. Both the social and economic aspects are important for each patient and should be deeply analysed by public funds decision makers. It would be much easier to take an action if the probability of complete cure was high.

scholarly journals A simulation to identify the optimal area to survey in the early stage of invasion by Solenopsis invicta

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shumpei Hisamoto ◽  
Koichi Goka ◽  
Yoshiko Sakamoto
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Solenopsis Invicta ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Survey Area ◽  
Single Colony ◽  
The Status ◽  
Optimal Area ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Efforts to eradicate invasive alien species commonly use simulations to calculate the cost-effectiveness of surveys. Although eradication of Solenopsis invicta in the early stages of an invasion is important, few simulations are available to calculate the cost-effectiveness of surveys when a single colony has been detected. In the case of S. invicta, it is difficult to determine from the status of the detected colony whether new queens have dispersed, so it is necessary to consider dispersal as a probabilistic event and calculate its probability. We therefore first constructed a mathematical model in which we used Bayesian statistics to estimate the probability of dispersal as a function of the results of the survey. This mathematical model revealed that the efficacy of the survey and the associated cost differed greatly between cases depending on whether dispersal was or was not confirmed. Next, we developed a simulation that incorporated this mathematical model to inform the determination of the survey area when a single colony had been detected. The simulation showed how ecological parameters and geographical information could be used to identify an efficacious survey area, even in heterogeneous landscapes such as international ports where invasions occur sporadically. Finally, we used this simulation to assess the efficacy of a survey in the case of an S. invicta outbreak at the Port of Tokyo, Japan. The results suggested that the survey covered a sufficiently wide area but that it could have been designed in a more efficacious manner.

scholarly journals A multi-factor model developed on residents’ opinions for the classification of urban residential areas

Geografie ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 121 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-31
Author(s):  
Péter Gyenizse ◽  
András Trócsányi ◽  
Gábor Pirisi ◽  
Zita Bognár ◽  
Szabolcs Czigány
Keyword(s):  
Urban Area ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Social Differentiation ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
The Status ◽  
Housing Needs

The process of social differentiation in post-communist states has had a clear impact on the status of neighbourhoods. Municipalities have tried to handle the problem, but planning in Hungary is still based on shallow analyses. This paper presents a method for examining and quantifying prevailing factors of residential areas, also being able of a spatial comparison. It detects problematic issues and locations and assists in the formulation of solutions. The model city for the presented study was Szeged, located in southeastern Hungary. Szeged is the economic center of the region and it was an ideal urban area for the evaluation of housing needs and for the mapping of various objects and social services. A field-collected qualitative database was processed using the Idrisi Selva GIS program, resulting in a classifying map of investigated areas. We have localized the properties of the lowest score and also determined the major issues responsible for low scores by analysing the spatial data of 27 GIS layers. The model can be used to detect the reasons causing differences in the perception of neighbourhoods, while it may serve as a tool for decision makers.

scholarly journals Prediction of prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Rwanda using the metropolis-hasting sampling

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 702-709
Author(s):  
Angelique Dukunde ◽  
Jean Marie Ntaganda ◽  
Juma Kasozi ◽  
Joseph Nzabanita
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Transition Matrix ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Decision ◽  
The Masses

In this work, we predict the prevalence of type 2 diabetes among adult Rwandan people. We used the Metropolis-Hasting method that involved calculating the metropolis ratio. The data are those reported by World Health Organiation in 2015. Considering Suffering from diabetes, Overweight, Obesity, Dead and other subject as states of mathematical model, the transition matrix whose elements are probabilities is generated using Metropolis-Hasting sampling. The numerical results show that the prevalence of type 2 diabetes increases from 2.8% in 2015 to reach 12.65% in 2020 and to 22.59% in 2025. Therefore, this indicates the urgent need of prevention by Rwandan health decision makers who have to play their crucial role in encouraging for example physical activity, regular checkups and sensitization of the masses. Keywords: Non communicable diseases; type 2 diabetes; Markov Chain Monte Carlo method; Metropolis-Hasting method; Transition probabilities.rds: 

scholarly journals Imaginary Worlds: The Status of Simulation Modeling in Claims for Cost-Effectiveness In Diabetes Mellitus

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C Langley ◽  
Taeho Greg Rhee
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Impact

Over the past 20 years a number of simulations or models have been developed as a basis for tracking and evaluating the impact of pharmacological and other interventions in type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus. These models have typically tracked the natural course of these diseases generating long-term composite claims for cost-effectiveness. These claims can extend over the lifetime of the modeled patient cohort. Set against the standards of normal science, however, these claims lack credibility. The claims presented are all too often either immune to failure or are presented in a form that is non-testable. As such they fail to meet the key experimental requirements of falsification and replication. Unfortunately, there is a continuing belief that long-term or lifetime models are essential to decision-making. This is misplaced. The purpose of this review is to argue that there is a pressing need to reconsider the needs of health system decision makers and focus on modeled or simulated claims that are meaningful, testable, reportable and replicable in evaluating interventions in diabetes mellitus.   Type: Commentary

PUBLIC HEALTH, NURSING AND MEDICAL SOCIAL WORK

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1955 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 340-347
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States Public Health ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Surgeon General ◽  
The Status ◽  
Pan American ◽  
Health Nursing

COLLABORATION among the governments of the Western Hemisphere in regard to their health activities passed another milestone in the XIV Pan American Sanitary Conference held in Santiago, Chile, 7-22 October 1954. There was a considerable difference in atmosphere this time from the first such conference which took place in Washington in 1902. At that time urgent need for mutual operations to control yellow fever, so widespread as to interfere seriously with international travel and commerce, was the main subject of discussion and led to agreement to form the "International Sanitary Bureau." Originally only 10 governments participated, but by 1924 the Pan American Sanitary Code was approved, which all 21 republics of the Americas have ratified. This Code is still in force and has the status of an international treaty. Until 1936 the Director elected for the Bureau was the Surgeon-General of the United States Public Health Service, who gave part of his time to the duties of the Bureau but also assigned the full time of a Commissioned Officer of the Service to the Bureau. In 1936, upon his retirement as Surgeon-General, Dr. Hugh S. Cumming dedicated his full time to the Pan American Sanitary Bureau. He was reëlected in 1938 and 1942 for 2 more terms.

Numerical Simulation of the Relation between Plasma Reflection and Keyhole Dimension in the Keyhole PAW Process

2011 ◽  
Vol 399-401 ◽  
pp. 1812-1815
Author(s):  
Feng Liang Yin ◽  
Sheng Zhu ◽  
Sheng Sun Hu
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Plasma Arc ◽  
The Status ◽  
Voltage Signal ◽  
Plasma Reflection

A three-dimensional mathematical model has been established to research the relation between the plasma reflection and status of keyhole during the keyhole PAW processing. It has been found that the strength of the plasma reflection is related to the keyhole dimension. Another condition to make the plasma refection appearance is that the keyhole or concave in the pool must be unsymmetrical about the axis of the plasma arc. The mechanism of detecting circuit designed based on the fact that the plasma refection is able to indicate the status of keyhole is mathematically studied. The result shows that the voltage signal in the detecting circuit can be used to indicate the status of keyhole.

scholarly journals Gender and societies: a grassroots approach to women in science

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
pp. 190633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex James ◽  
Rose Chisnall ◽  
Michael J. Plank
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Gender Bias ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Women In Science ◽  
Male Dominance ◽  
Simple Mathematical Model ◽  
Lower Status ◽  
The Status ◽  
Analyse Data

Women are under-represented in science. We show that the extent of the gender gap varies depending on the status of the position in question and there are simple steps that can be taken to improve diversity. We analyse data on the activities of over 30 science societies spanning four countries and five distinct discipline areas. Our results show that women tend to be equally represented in lower status roles and awards, e.g. student prizes and editorships, but under-represented in higher status roles, e.g. late-career awards and chief editorships. We develop a simple mathematical model to explore the role of homophily in decision making and quantify the effect of simple steps that can be taken to improve diversity. We conclude that, when the stakes are low, efforts to tackle historic gender bias towards men have been at least partially successful, but when the stakes are higher male dominance is often still the norm.

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