WEATHER SENSITIVITY OF RICE YIELD: EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

This study estimates the weather sensitivity of rice yield in India, using disaggregated (district) level information on rice and high resolution daily weather data over the period 1969–2007. Compared to existing India specific studies on rice which consider only the effects of nighttime (minimum) temperature, the present study takes into account the effects of both nighttime and daytime (maximum) temperatures along with other weather variables on rice yield. The results suggest that both nighttime and daytime temperatures adversely affect rice during different growth phases. The effect of higher nighttime temperature on rice yield was much lower than those estimated by previous studies. Further, the negative impact of higher daytime temperature on rice yield was much larger than the impact due to higher nighttime temperature. The study further estimates that average rice yield would have been 8.4% higher had the pre-1960 climatic conditions prevailed during the period of study. This translates into an annual average loss of 4.4 million tons/yr or a cumulative loss of 172 million tons over the 39 year period for India. The paper argues that such significant loss in rice production under climate change conditions in future will have strong implications for the region's food-security and poverty, given that a large number of producers and consumers depend on rice for their livelihood and sustenance.

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IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CHINA’S RICE PRODUCTION — AN EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION BASED ON PANEL DATA (1979–2011) FROM CHINA’S MAIN RICE-PRODUCING AREAS

The Singapore Economic Review ◽

10.1142/s0217590817400240 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 63 (03) ◽

pp. 535-553 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

DAN WANG ◽

YU HAO ◽

JIANPEI WANG

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Panel Data ◽

Temperature Difference ◽

Rice Production ◽

Weather Data ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

Maximum Temperatures ◽

The Impact

Climate change is attracting increasing attention from the international community. To assess the impact of climate change on China’s rice production, this paper re-organizes the main rice-producing areas by adding up the annual production of the provincial level regions between 1979 and 2011, utilizes Cobb–Douglas function using daily weather data over the whole growing season. Our analysis of the panel data shows that minimum temperatures (Tmin), maximum temperatures (Tmax), temperature difference (TD) and precipitation (RP) are the four key climate determinants of rice production in China. Among these, temperature difference is surprisingly significant and all except maximum temperatures have positive effects. However, because the actual minimum temperatures and precipitation in China’s main rice-producing areas declined while the maximum temperatures and the temperature difference increased during our sample period, climate change has actually provided a negative contribution to the increase in China’s rice production.

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Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java

Environments ◽

10.3390/environments8110117 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (11) ◽

pp. 117

Author(s):

Andrianto Ansari ◽

Yu-Pin Lin ◽

Huu-Sheng Lur

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Rice Production ◽

Calibration Coefficient ◽

Weather Data ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Central Java ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

The Impact

Predicting the effect of climate change on rice yield is crucial as global food demand rapidly increases with the human population. This study combined simulated daily weather data (MarkSim) and the CERES-Rice crop model from the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software to predict rice production for three planting seasons under four climate change scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for the years 2021 to 2050 in the Keduang subwatershed, Wonogiri Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. The CERES-Rice model was calibrated and validated for the local rice cultivar (Ciherang) with historical data using GenCalc software. The model evaluation indicated good performance with both calibration (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.89, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.88) and validation (R2 = 0.87, NSE = 0.76). Our results suggest that the predicted changing rainfall patterns, rising temperature, and intensifying solar radiation under climate change can reduce the rice yield in all three growing seasons. Under RCP 8.5, the impact on rice yield in the second dry season may decrease by up to 11.77% in the 2050s. Relevant strategies associated with policies based on the results were provided for decision makers. Furthermore, to adapt the impact of climate change on rice production, a dynamic cropping calendar, modernization of irrigation systems, and integrated plant nutrient management should be developed for farming practices based on our results in the study area. Our study is not only the first assessment of the impact of climate change on the study site but also provides solutions under projected rice shortages that threaten regional food security.

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Impact of Extreme Weather on Healthcare Utilization by People with HIV in Metropolitan Miami

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18052442 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (5) ◽

pp. 2442

Author(s):

Daniel Samano ◽

Shubhayu Saha ◽

Taylor Corbin Kot ◽

JoNell E. Potter ◽

Lunthita M. Duthely

Keyword(s):

Relative Risk ◽

The United States ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

South Florida ◽

Heat Index ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Weather Data ◽

Steady Increase ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

The Impact

Extreme weather events (EWE) are expected to increase as climate change intensifies, leaving coastal regions exposed to higher risks. South Florida has the highest HIV infection rate in the United States, and disruptions in clinic utilization due to extreme weather conditions could affect adherence to treatment and increase community transmission. The objective of this study was to identify the association between EWE and HIV-clinic attendance rates at a large academic medical system serving the Miami-Dade communities. The following methods were utilized: (1) Extreme heat index (EHI) and extreme precipitation (EP) were identified using daily observations from 1990–2019 that were collected at the Miami International Airport weather station located 3.6 miles from the studied HIV clinics. Data on hurricanes, coastal storms and flooding were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storms Database (NOAA) for Miami-Dade County. (2) An all-HIV clinic registry identified scheduled daily visits during the study period (hurricane seasons from 2017–2019). (3) Daily weather data were linked to the all-HIV clinic registry, where patients’ ‘no-show’ status was the variable of interest. (4) A time-stratified, case crossover model was used to estimate the relative risk of no-show on days with a high heat index, precipitation, and/or an extreme natural event. A total of 26,444 scheduled visits were analyzed during the 383-day study period. A steady increase in the relative risk of ‘no-show’ was observed in successive categories, with a 14% increase observed on days when the heat index was extreme compared to days with a relatively low EHI, 13% on days with EP compared to days with no EP, and 10% higher on days with a reported extreme weather event compared to days without such incident. This study represents a novel approach to improving local understanding of the impacts of EWE on the HIV-population’s utilization of healthcare, particularly when the frequency and intensity of EWE is expected to increase and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. More studies are needed to understand the impact of EWE on routine outpatient settings.

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Field survey on frost damage to roof tiles under climatic conditions

Structural Survey ◽

10.1108/ss-07-2015-0033 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 34 (2) ◽

pp. 135-149 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Chiemi Iba ◽

Ayumi Ueda ◽

Shuichi Hokoi

Keyword(s):

Field Survey ◽

Winter Season ◽

Frost Damage ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Weather Data ◽

Measured Temperature ◽

Content Type ◽

Roof Tile ◽

Deterioration Process ◽

The Impact

Purpose – Frost damage is well-known as the main cause of roof tile deterioration. The purpose of this paper is to develop an analytical model for predicting the deterioration process under certain climatic conditions. This paper describes the results of a field survey conducted to acquire fundamental information useful to this aim. Design/methodology/approach – A field survey of roof tile damage by freezing was conducted in an old temple precinct in Kyoto, Japan. Using detailed observations and photographic recordings, the damage progress was clarified. To examine the impact of climatic conditions upon the damage characteristics, weather data and roof tile temperatures were measured and logged in the winter season. Findings – The deterioration process was observed under the climatic conditions associated with the measured temperature of the roof tiles. In particular, it was revealed that the orientation has a significant influence on increasing or decreasing the risk of frost damage. For certain distinctive forms of damage, the deterioration mechanisms were estimated from the viewpoint of the moisture flow and temperature distribution in the tile. Originality/value – This study contributes to the elucidation of the mechanism behind frost damage to roof tiles. The findings will guide the construction of a numerical model for frost damage prediction.

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Integrated assessment of impact of water resources of important river basins in Eastern India under projected climate conditions

Global NEST Journal ◽

10.30955/gnj.001658 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 17 (3) ◽

pp. 594-606 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Catchment Area ◽

River Basins ◽

Weather Data ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Eastern India ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

The Impact

<div> <p>The impact of climate change on water resources through increased evaporation combined with regional changes in precipitation characteristics has the potential to affect mean runoff, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture and water supply for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) system is the largest in India with a catchment area of about 110Mha, which is more than 43% of the cumulative catchment area of all the major rivers in the country. The river Damodar is an important sub catchment of GBM basin and its three tributaries- the Bokaro, the Konar and the Barakar form one important tributary of the Bhagirathi-Hughli (a tributary of Ganga) in its lower reaches. The present study is an attempt to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources of the four important Eastern River Basins namely Damodar, Subarnarekha, Mahanadi and Ajoy, which have immense importance in industrial and agricultural scenarios in eastern India. A distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) has been used on the four river basins using HadRM2 daily weather data for the period from 2041 to 2060 to predict the impact of climate change on water resources of these river systems. </p> </div> <p> </p>

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Trends in crop production as a factor of ensuring food security of the Perm Region

Agrarian Bulletin of the ◽

10.32417/1997-4868-2021-213-10-81-92 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 213 (10) ◽

pp. 81-92

Author(s):

Lyudmila Shalaeva

Keyword(s):

Rural Areas ◽

Crop Production ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Potato Production ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Self Sufficiency ◽

The Social ◽

The Impact ◽

Sown Area ◽

Perm Region

Abstract. Goal. The assessment of the main trends in the activity of agricultural producers in crop production was carried out in order to substantiate the possibilities of the Perm Region for self-sufficiency with the main types of food resources in the presence of adverse effects of natural and climatic conditions. Methods. A statistical analysis was carried out using grouping and comparison methods based on the official statistics of the Perm Region for 2016-2020. Results. In accordance with the social and geographical specifics of the Perm Region, on the territory of which rural areas predominate, the largest volume of crop production is produced in the households of the population (up to 58 %), whose activities are characterized by the lowest level of stability and are more susceptible to the negative impact of natural and climatic conditions. The activity of agricultural organizations (share up to 36 %) and farms (share up to 8 %) is more stable. A higher level of dependence on natural and climatic conditions was revealed in the field of potato production, a lower level – in the field of grain and vegetables production of protected soil. The risk is reinforced by the fact that up to 70 % of the natural volume of potatoes and more than 80% of vegetables are produced in households. With a decrease in the total sown area by 1.2 %, there is a decrease in the sown area of potatoes by 15 % and vegetables by 6 %. The identified trends allowed us to identify the risk of reducing the level of food self-sufficiency of the Perm Region with potatoes and vegetables. The insecurity of domestic potato consumption in the Perm Region is, according to preliminary data, 13 % in 2020. The presence of risk was also revealed for vegetables, the internal consumption of the region was provided with vegetable products of its own production by an average of 56% during the study period. The results obtained allow us to identify the directions of optimization of the Perm Region strategy in solving the problems of food self-sufficiency. Scientific novelty. The dynamics of factors of crop production (structure, yield, acreage, intensification) is assessed taking into account the social, geographical, natural and climatic specifics of the Perm Region through the prism of the impact on the regional food balance and the level of self-sufficiency of the region with potatoes and vegetables.

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Aspects Concerning the Impact of Climate Aridization on Forest Ecosystems (Case Study)

Present Environment and Sustainable Development ◽

10.1515/pesd-2017-0025 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 63-75

Author(s):

Nedealcov Maria ◽

Donica Ala ◽

Brașoveanu Valeriu ◽

Grigoraș Nicolae ◽

Deomidova Cristina

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Ecosystems ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Local Level ◽

Aridity Index ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Study Region ◽

Climate Aridization ◽

The Impact

Abstract Assessment activity and surveillance of the forests health, held at the global, regional and local level, has continuously developed, culminating in the current period with interdisciplinary and extensive scientific researches, that evaluate the effects of the main factors on forest ecosystems state, in particular, air pollution and climate change. Scientific researches have shown that among trees ecophysiological processes, forest life processes and meteorological parameters there are direct dependences, particularly in the case of trees supply with water during the growing period (May-July), with major influences for critical months (July and August), which have a decisive impact on growth, vitality and production of organic matter in forests. Dry years, from the beginning of the third millennium can lead to a decrease of mesophilic forests area (beech, sessile oak and penduculate oak), which will tend to retreat towards the center of the area (central Europe) in favor of thermophilic forests with pubescent oak. It was determined that a most significant negative impact of climate aridization will feel the forest ecosystems from Southern and central regions of country (conditioned by the mean air temperature (July-August), monthly rainfall (May-August), evapotranspiration and geographic latitude), and less - the Northern part of the country (Forestry Aridity Index calculated for 3 experimental stations revealed variations of this index between 7.8 - 8.3 - in the Central part of country, and 8.4 - 8.6 - for Southern part of country). At the same time the impact of climate change will determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of pests and pathogenic species. The phenomenon of climate aridization was expressed also through the impact of the Microsphaera alphitoides disease, intensity of “mildew” attack being based on the climatic conditions of the study region. Obtained data, for confirmation, were correlated with indications of bioindicators, present in the study region.

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Nepal, a multi-hazard risk country: Spatio-temporal analysis

Journal of Nepal Geological Society ◽

10.3126/jngs.v58i0.24599 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 58 ◽

pp. 145-152

Author(s):

Ganesh Kumar Jimee ◽

Kimiro Meguro ◽

Amod Mani Dixit

Keyword(s):

Temporal Analysis ◽

Significant Loss ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Economic Conditions ◽

Tectonic Processes ◽

Active Tectonic ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

The Impact ◽

Complex Geology

Nepal, though covers small area of the earth, exposes complex geology with active tectonic processes, high peaks, sloppy terrain and climatic variation. Combination of such geo-physical and climatic conditions with existing poor socio-economic conditions, unplanned settlements, rapidly increasing population and low level of awareness has put the country in highest risk to multi-hazard events. Fires, floods, landslides and epidemics are the most frequent hazard events, which have cumulatively caused a significant loss of lives and property every year. However, due to diversity in physiographic, climatic and socio-economic conditions within the country, the type, frequency and degree of the impact of such events differs in different places. During the period of 46 years (1971-2016), an average of 2 events have been occurred causing 3 deaths/missing every day. Disaster events occurred most frequently during the months of April, July and August, while relatively lesser number of events have been reported during January, November and December. However, earthquakes have been reported in different months, regardless with the season. This paper is an effort to analyse the spatial distribution and temporal variation of disaster events in Nepal. Further it has drawn a trend of disasters occurrence in Nepal, which will help the decision makers and other stakeholders for formulating Disaster Risk Management (DRM) plan and policies on one hand and heighten citizens’ awareness of against disasters on the other.

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Assessing the impact of climate change on crop management in winter wheat – a case study for Eastern Austria

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859616000083 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 154 (7) ◽

pp. 1153-1170 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

E. EBRAHIMI ◽

A. M. MANSCHADI ◽

R. W. NEUGSCHWANDTNER ◽

J EITZINGER ◽

S. THALER ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Management Practices ◽

Crop Management ◽

Weather Data ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Management Scenarios ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

Eastern Austria ◽

The Impact

SUMMARYClimate change is expected to affect optimum agricultural management practices for autumn-sown wheat, especially those related to sowing date and nitrogen (N) fertilization. To assess the direction and quantity of these changes for an important production region in eastern Austria, the agricultural production systems simulator was parameterized, evaluated and subsequently used to predict yield production and grain protein content under current and future conditions. Besides a baseline climate (BL, 1981–2010), climate change scenarios for the period 2035–65 were derived from three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), namely CGMR, IPCM4 and MPEH5, with two emission scenarios, A1B and B1. Crop management scenarios included a combination of three sowing dates (20 September, 20 October, 20 November) with four N fertilizer application rates (60, 120, 160, 200 kg/ha). Each management scenario was run for 100 years of stochastically generated daily weather data. The model satisfactorily simulated productivity as well as water and N use of autumn- and spring-sown wheat crops grown under different N supply levels in the 2010/11 and 2011/12 experimental seasons. Simulated wheat yields under climate change scenarios varied substantially among the three GCMs. While wheat yields for the CGMR model increased slightly above the BL scenario, under IPCM4 projections they were reduced by 29 and 32% with low or high emissions, respectively. Wheat protein appears to increase with highest increments in the climate scenarios causing the largest reductions in grain yield (IPCM4 and MPEH-A1B). Under future climatic conditions, maximum wheat yields were predicted for early sowing (September 20) with 160 kg N/ha applied at earlier dates than the current practice.

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Modelling Approach for Predicting the Impact of Changing Temperature Conditions on Grapevine Canopy Architectures

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy9080426 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (8) ◽

pp. 426 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Dominik Schmidt ◽

Christopher Bahr ◽

Matthias Friedel ◽

Katrin Kahlen

Keyword(s):

Time Course ◽

Structural Model ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Weather Data ◽

Knowledge Gain ◽

Temperature Sensitive ◽

Bud Burst ◽

Climate Change Research ◽

The Impact ◽

Vineyard Management

Future climatic conditions might have severe effects on grapevine architecture, which will be highly relevant for vineyard management decisions on shoot positioning, pruning or cutting. This study was designed to help gaining insight into how, in particular, increasing temperatures might affect grapevine canopies. We developed a functional-structural model for Riesling, Virtual Riesling, based on digitised data of real plants and a comprehensive state-of-the-art data analysis. The model accounts for the variability in temperature-sensitive morphological processes, such as bud break and appearance rates. Our simulation study using historical weather data revealed significant effects of the thermal time course over the year on bud burst of the cane and on primary shoots. High variabilities in these events affect canopy growth and leaf area distribution. This report shows that Virtual Riesling can be useful in assessing the significance of changing temperatures for grapevine architecture and thereby considering management techniques such as vertical shoot positioning. Further developments of Virtual Riesling might support the knowledge gain for developing necessary adaptations in future vineyard management and, thus, facilitate future work on climate change research using functional-structural model approaches.

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