Using a Multiyear Temporal Climate-Analog Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Park Visitation

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 291-305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Micah J. Hewer ◽  
William A. Gough
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather Sensitivity ◽  
Park Visitation ◽  
Analog Approach ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Because of the perceived weather sensitivity of park visitation in Ontario, Canada, several previous assessments have examined the impact of climate change. However, these assessments have predominantly been based on modeling approaches (regression analysis). The current study uses a multiyear temporal climate-analog approach to reassess the impact of climate change on visitation to Pinery Provincial Park in southwestern Ontario based on the observed effects of historical climatic anomalies on park visitation from 2000 to 2016. Consideration was also given to major events such as the North American terror attacks on 11 September 2001 and the confounding effect that events such as this may have had on the results. There were no statistically significant relationships (at the 95% confidence level) between seasonal climatic anomalies and park visitation in Ontario during the winter or spring seasons. There was a weak statistical relationship between anomalously warm summer seasons and park visitation, when compared to summer seasons with climatically normal temperatures; however, the presence of nonclimatic variables may have confounded these results, producing a false positive. Autumn-season park visitation was most sensitive to climatic anomalies, with the warmest temperatures causing visitation to increase by 37%, the wettest conditions causing visitation to decrease by 11%, and the driest conditions resulting in a 24% increase. These observed seasonal temperature anomalies represent temporal climate analogs for projected climate change across the span of the twenty-first century. Thus, the results of this study suggest that previous assessments may have overestimated the positive impacts of projected climate change on park visitation in this region.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on fish infectious diseases (a review)

2020 ◽  
pp. 78-110
Author(s):  
Yu. Rud ◽  
◽  
O. Zaloilo ◽  
L. Buchatsky ◽  
I. Hrytsyniak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fish Farms ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Climate ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Purpose. As the climate change impacts freshwater and marine ecosystems, and rising ocean temperatures and acidification continue to this moment, our aim was to analyze the literature and summarize information on the development of fish infectious diseases in the light of global warming. Findings. Even a slight increase in temperature affects the life cycle, physiology, behavior, distribution and structure of populations of aquatic bioresources, especially fish. Recent studies show that some infectious diseases of fish spread much faster with increasing temperature. Climate change contributes to pathogens spread in both marine and freshwater areas. In particular, rising water temperatures can expand the range of diseases. Aquatic bioresources have high cumulative mortality from infectious diseases, and pathogens are rapidly progressing, and these phenomena may be powered by climate change, leading to the geographical spread of virulent pathogens to fisheries and aquaculture facilities, threatening much of global production and food security. The article presents data on the impact of climate change and global warming on aquaculture and fisheries. The list of the main pathogens of fish of various etiology in Ukraine, including viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases is presented. The impact of infectious agents on modern aquaculture is described and the main ideas about the possible long-term consequences of climate change for fish farms are given. Practical Value. The review may be useful for specialists in veterinary medicine, epizootology and ichthyopathology. Key words: climate change, infectious diseases of fish, pathogenesis.

scholarly journals SWAT BASED ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN THENPENNAI SUB-BASIN OF SOUTH INDIA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-5 ◽  
pp. 557-562
Author(s):  
K. Nivedita Priyadarshini ◽  
S. A. Rahaman ◽  
S. Nithesh Nirmal ◽  
R. Jegankumar ◽  
P. Masilamani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil And Water

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Climate change impacts on watershed ecosystems and hydrologic processes are complex. The key significant parameters responsible for balancing the watershed ecosystems are temperature and rainfall. Though these parameters are uncertain, they play a prime role in the projections of dimensional climate change studies. The impact of climate change is more dependent on temperature and precipitation which contributes at a larger magnitude for characterising global warming issues. This paper aims to forecast the variations of temperature and precipitation during the period of 2020&amp;ndash;2050 for the northern part of Thenpennar sub basin. This study is modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) &amp;ndash; a scale model developed to predict the impact of changes that occurs in land, soil and water over a period of time. This study is validated using the base period from 1980&amp;ndash;2000 which shows the distribution of rainfall and temperature among 38 watersheds. The results from this study show that there is a decrease in the rainfall for a maximum of about 20% in the month of December during the predicted period of 2020 and 2050. This study assesses the possible adverse impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of Thenpennai sub-basin. This kind of predictions will help the government agencies, rulers and decision makers in policy making and implementing the adaptation strategies for the changing climatic conditions.</p>

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on the expansion ofIxodes persulcatushabitat and the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in the north of European Russia

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 8448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolay K. Tokarevich ◽  
Andrey A. Tronin ◽  
Olga V. Blinova ◽  
Roman V. Buzinov ◽  
Vitaliy P. Boltenkov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
European Russia ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Tick Borne Encephalitis ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The impact of Hurricane Michael on longleaf pine habitats in Florida

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole E. Zampieri ◽  
Stephanie Pau ◽  
Daniel K. Okamoto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Size Structure ◽  
Longleaf Pine ◽  
Pinus Palustris ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
The North ◽  
Integral Role ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem of the North American Coastal Plain (NACP) is a global biodiversity hotspot. Disturbances such as tropical storms play an integral role in ecosystem maintenance in these systems. However, altered disturbance regimes as a result of climate change may be outside the historical threshold of tolerance. Hurricane Michael impacted the Florida panhandle as a Category 5 storm on October 10th, 2018. In this study, we estimate the extent of Florida longleaf habitat that was directly impacted by Hurricane Michael. We then quantify the impact of Hurricane Michael on tree density and size structure using a Before-After study design at four sites (two wet flatwood and two upland pine communities). Finally, we identify the most common type of tree damage at each site and community type. We found that 39% of the total remaining extent of longleaf pine habitat was affected by the storm in Florida alone. Tree mortality ranged from 1.3% at the site furthest from the storm center to 88.7% at the site closest. Most of this mortality was in mature sized trees (92% mortality), upon which much of the biodiversity in this habitat depends. As the frequency and intensity of extreme events increases, management plans that mitigate for climate change impacts need to account for large-scale stochastic mortality events in order to effectively preserve critical habitats.

Robust Responses to the Impact of Climate Change in Zimbabwe: Social Work’s Contribution

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatenda Goodman Nhapi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Work ◽  
Social Workers ◽  
Work Practice ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Social Work Practice ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Social Work Training ◽  
Work Training ◽  
The Impact

It has become important that social work confronts environmental challenges associated with climate change. Environmental social work is an approach to social work practice founded on ecological justice principles. A literature review was conducted to analyse social work’s contribution to robust responses to the impact of climate change in Zimbabwe. Despite an enabling legal and policy environment, the degradation of natural resources has become pervasive owing to Zimbabwe’s socio-economic dynamics. Institutions such as the Council of Social Workers Zimbabwe (Council of Social Workers), and the National Association of Social Workers Zimbabwe complemented by the four universities that offer social work training are found to contribute to social work when mitigating the impact of climate change in Zimbabwe. These strategies enrich social work’s responses to the challenges of climate change and environmental degradation. This is achievable by engaging in research opportunities of applied action that explore communities’ public and social spaces. The article concludes by offering pathways for more proactive social work contributions towards mitigating climate change impacts in Zimbabwe.

Impacts of climate change on net crop revenue in North and South China

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 358-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinxia Wang ◽  
Jikun Huang ◽  
Lijuan Zhang ◽  
Yumin Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Variation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
North And South ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the impacts of climate change on crop net revenue by region. Particularly, the authors focus on the impact differences between north and south regions. Design/methodology/approach – The authors applied the Ricardian approach which assumes that each farmer wishes to maximize revenue subject to the exogenous conditions of their farm. The climate data are based on actual measurements in 753 national meteorological stations and the socio-economic data covers 8,405 farms across 28 provinces in China. Findings – On average, the rise of annual temperature will hurt farms both in the north or south. The impacts of climate change on both precipitation and temperatures have different seasonal impacts on producers in the north and the south of China. As a consequence, the impact on net farm revenues varies with farms in the north and the south being adversely affected (to different degrees) by a rise in the temperature, but both benefiting from an anticipated increase in rainfall. The results also reveal that irrigation is one key adaption measure to dealing with climate change. Whether in the north or south of China, increasing temperature is beneficial to irrigated farms, while for rainfed farms, higher temperature will result in a reduction in net revenues. The results also reveal that farms in the north are more vulnerable to temperature and precipitation variation than that in the south. Irrigated farms in the south are more vulnerable to precipitation variation than that in the north; but rainfed farms in the north are more vulnerable to precipitation variation than that in the south. Originality/value – Applying empirical analysis to identify the differences of climate change impacts between north and south regions will help policy makers to design reasonable adaptation policies for various regions.

Including the Impact of Climate Change in Offshore and Onshore Metocean Design Criteria to Ensure Asset Robustness

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Brown ◽  
Ag Stephens ◽  
Ben Rabb ◽  
Richenda Connell ◽  
Jon Upton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Design Criteria ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract While a significant amount of attention surrounding climate change has focused on mitigation of the causes, there is growing interest and need to adapt to physical climate change impacts which are already being experienced and in anticipation of future changes. Changes in climate have the potential to create hazards in the oil and gas sector although vulnerabilities to these changes are often specific to asset types. Preparedness for climate change can help to reduce damaging effects from acute as well as chronic climate changes. This paper focuses on a simple approach developed to ensure that climate change is included in engineering design, by considering climate change risk and the uncertainty inherent in future projections of climate change into design requirements. It involves using the best available climate change data and an understanding of the relationships between asset performance and environmental (climate-related) conditions. The risk level associated with climate change for a specific asset is determined by consideration of the severity and confidence level of the climate change hazard, the exposure of the asset to the hazard, the vulnerability of the exposed asset to the hazard and the capacity of the asset to adapt to the hazard. The method considers the risk levels, the selection of climate model data, the ‘natural variability’ baseline period to be applied to the climate change data, the climate change model validation, the asset life time and specifically how to modify metocean design criteria to account for climate change to ensure both the ‘start of life’ criteria (typically derived from observed and hindcast data) and ‘end of life’ criteria (including an estimate for the impact of climate change at the end of the asset life) meet the required annual probability of exceedance.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in Kon – Ha Thanh River Watershed, Vietnam

10.29007/1hrc ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngoc Duong Vo ◽  
Thanh Hao Nguyen ◽  
Huy Cong Vu ◽  
Philippe Gourbesville ◽  
Quang Binh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is a complex problem and becoming the leading challenge for humankind in the 21st century. It will affect almost aspects of human well-being. Therefore, assessing climate change impacts on water resources and proposed solutions to respond to climate change is urgent and necessary. This study applied the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and GIS (Geographic Information System) technique to simulate water flows due to the impact of climate change. The models were applied for Kon – Ha Thanh river catchment, located in Vietnam where is considered as one of the countries most affected by climate change. The SWAT model is calibrated and validated well using daily flow data with the Nash-Sutcliffe and correlation coefficients are 0.77 and 0.88, respectively. Two scenarios from Vietnamese government (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are used to analyze the variation of stream flow in three periods: 2016- 2035, 2045-2065, and 2080-2100. The results show that the flow in Kon – Ha Thanh rivers will vary complicatedly and severely under the impact of climate change. This flow may increase roughly 150.8% in flood season and reduce around 11.8% in dry season. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates that there are the changes in the flood dynamics as well as the hydrological shift of this region. This study presents an operational approach to integrate the results from the impacts of climate change to flood protection measures that would be useful in sustainable planning and devising resilience strategies.

scholarly journals GUGATAN WARGA NEGARA (STUDI KASUS: GERAKAN SAMARINDA MENGGUGAT

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-110
Author(s):  
Rizkita Alamanda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Small Islands ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Group I ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

AbstrakPerubahan iklim bukan lagi menjadi sebuah omong kosong, kenyataan bahwa bumi semakin panas dan ancaman atas dampak perubahan iklim telah menjadi nyata. Pergeseran musim mengakibatkan kegagalan dalam bercocok tanam, kenaikan permukaan air laut mengancam keberadaan negara-negara kepulauan kecil. Banjir dan kekeringan adalah sebagian kecil dari dampak perubahan iklim yang telah nyata dirasakan. Bumi semakin panas, para ahli dalam Laporan IPCC WG I AR 5 semakin yakin bahwa penyebab perubahan iklim adalah akibat aktivitas manusia. Pertanyaan yang kemudian muncul adalah siapa yang bertanggung jawab atas kerusakan dan kerugian yang diderita akibat dampak perubahan iklim? Di Indonesia, Gugatan Warga Negara menjadi salah satu bentuk litigasi yang menjadi alternatif penyelesaian dampak perubahan iklim yang dirasakan oleh masyarakat. Abstract Climate change is not longer became an issue, we are facing the fact that earth is getting warmer and the impact of climate change is become real. The season changed, and affected the crops failure. The raising sea level threatening the existence of small islands. Flood and drought are simply the several impact of climate change that has been perceived. Earth is getting warmer, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report of Working Group I ensure the main cause of climate change is from anthropogenic activities. The question that arose later is who will be responsible for any damage of the climate change impact? Citizen Law Suit in Indonesia has become one of litigation form that can be an alternative solution of climate change impacts in civil society.

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