Business Behavior in the Face of Severe Weather: Studying the Effects of Deterministic and Probabilistic Warning Systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
SETH P. HOWARD ◽  
ALISON P. BOEHMER ◽  
KEVIN M. SIMMONS ◽  
KIM E. KLOCKOW-MCCLAIN
Keyword(s):  
Small Businesses ◽  
Behavioral Science ◽  
Individual Behavior ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
North Texas ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
The Face ◽  
Most Significant Change ◽  
Business Behavior ◽  
Business Response

AbstractTornadoes are nature’s most violent storm and annually cause billions in damage along with the threat of fatalities and injuries. To improve tornado warnings, the National Weather Service is considering a change from a deterministic to a probabilistic paradigm. While studies have been conducted on how individual behavior may change with the new While studies have been conducted on how individual behavior may change with the new businesses. This project is a response to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, H.R. 353, which calls for the use of social and behavioral science to study and improve storm warning systems. The goal is to discuss business response to probabilistic tornado warnings through descriptive and regression-based statistics using a survey administered to businesses in North Texas. Prior to release, the survey was vetted by a focus group comprised of businesses in Grayson County, TX who assisted in the creation of a behavior ranking scale. The scale ranked behaviors from low to high effort. Responses allowed for determining if the business reacted to the warning in a passive or active manner. Returned surveys came from large and small businesses in North Texas and represent a wide variety of industries. Regression analysis explores which variables have the greatest influence on businesses’ behavior and show that beyond increases in probability from the probabilistic warnings, trust in the warning provides the most significant change to behavior.

Firm Behavior in the Face of Severe Weather: Economic Analysis between Probabilistic and Deterministic Warnings

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-767
Author(s):  
Seth P. Howard ◽  
Kim E. Klockow-McClain ◽  
Alison P. Boehmer ◽  
Kevin M. Simmons
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Science ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Cost Avoidance ◽  
Probabilistic Information ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Social And Behavioral Science ◽  
Lost Productivity ◽  
The Face ◽  
Asking Questions

AbstractTornadoes cause billions of dollars in damage and over 100 fatalities on average annually. Yet, an indirect cost to these storms is found in lost sales and/or lost productivity from responding to over 2000 warnings per year. This project responds to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, H.R. 353, which calls for the use of social and behavioral science to study and improve storm warning systems. Our goal is to provide an analysis of cost avoidance that could accrue from a change to the warning paradigm, particularly to include probabilistic hazard information at storm scales. A survey of nearly 500 firms was conducted in and near the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan area asking questions about experience with tornadoes, sources of information for severe weather, expected cost of responding to tornado warnings, and how the firm would respond to either deterministic or probabilistic warnings. We find a dramatic change from deterministic warnings compared to the proposed probabilistic and that a probabilistic information system produces annual cost avoidance in a range of $2.3–$7.6 billion (U.S. dollars) compared to the current deterministic warning paradigm.

scholarly journals The project approach in the development of small business in the Russian Federation

2021 ◽  
Vol 188 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 141-148
Author(s):  
Alexandra Berezina ◽  
◽  
Natalya Saenko ◽  
Aidar Puryaev ◽  
Mira Fridman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Small Business ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Limited Resources ◽  
Project Approach ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Descriptive Method ◽  
The Project Approach

The paper aims to discuss the prospects of using the project approach in the development of small businesses in 2020-2021. To meet that goal, the authors have applied a descriptive method, with regard to Articles of the Constitution of the Russian Federation. Small business is one of the economy drivers, providing the necessary jobs and opportunities for self-employment, enterprises related to small business are quite mobile and flexible. Project management allows for creating an adequate plan of company development under conditions of limited resources and time. Based on the results of the research, it can be concluded that the project approach is an effective tool used to solve strategic problems in the face of constantly changing circumstances by eliminating some of the imperfections inherent in the market and to introduce an agile workflow.

SMALL BUSINESS: ILLUSIONS AND REALITY

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 2301-2312
Author(s):  
S.V. Popova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Business ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Industrial Society ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Reproduction Process ◽  
The Face ◽  
Post Industrial

In post-industrial society, there is an increase in the role of small business as an integral element of the reproduction process. The activities of small and medium-sized businesses in our country are carried out on the basis of the established global trends. Difficulties in the dynamics of this sphere are formed under the influence of increased concentration of production and consolidation of enterprises, which gives rise to a number of problems and contradictions. Considering small business as the most important component of the market economy, its role in solving the problems of creating a competitive environment and ensuring employment should be noted. The scientific literature on the problem under consideration shows the versatility in the authors’ views of the small business role in economic development. This problem is disclosed in sufficient detail in the works of foreign authors (M Weber, J. Gelbraith, P. Drucker, W. Sombart, R. Cantillon, R Coase, J. Keynes, K. Marx, A. Marshall, L. Mises, A. Smith, J. Schumpeter and others). In Russia, L. Abalkin, A. Anchishkin, K. Bazhenov, S. Witte, V. Inozemtsev, M. Lapusta, L. Slutsky, P. Stolypin, M. Tugan-Baranovsky, A. Chayanov and etc. considered this problem. The article reveals the role of small business in the Russian economy, as well as the problems and contradictions of its functioning. On the basis of a systematic analysis of the current trends, the problems, efficiency and significance of small business are identified. Research has shown that the role of small businesses is greatly exaggerated. Small business development acts as a factor in reducing unemployment. In the process of economic activity, a number of problems arise that the enterprises themselves cannot solve. A set of measures is required to support this activity and overcome the crisis. It is important that small and medium-sized enterprises can form their own accumulation fund, which can be used to adapt in the face of stagnation, which will increase the size of the labor force and labor productivity. The crisis of small and medium-sized businesses leads to a multiplier effect in the economy, which reduces the volume of GDP. As a result of the “concentration of capital” among large producers, smallscale production becomes unproductive and unprofitable. The opportunities for obtaining loans from small businesses are very limited. Modern high-tech productive equipment is not available to most. In many enterprises, there is no separation in order to save financial resources on wages. The social security of employees is low. The prosperity of any country in a post-industrial society depends on big business; small business is only an auxiliary sphere of activity. Relying on small business, it is impossible to improve the quality of life, to ensure economic growth and national security. The results of the study can be used in determining the strategic guidelines of economic policy and choosing development priorities.

scholarly journals Tornadoes in Europe: An Underestimated Threat

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (4) ◽  
pp. 713-728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogdan Antonescu ◽  
David M. Schultz ◽  
Alois Holzer ◽  
Pieter Groenemeijer
Keyword(s):  
General Public ◽  
The United States ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
European Database ◽  
The Social ◽  
Forecasting And Warning ◽  
First Time

Abstract The social and economic impact of tornadoes in Europe is analyzed using tornado reports from the European Severe Weather Database between 1950 and 2015. Despite what is often assumed by the general public and even by meteorologists and researchers, tornadoes do occur in Europe and they are associated with injuries, fatalities, and damages, although their reported frequencies and intensities are lower compared with the United States. Currently, the threat of tornadoes to Europe is underestimated. Few European meteorological services have developed and maintained tornado databases and even fewer have issued tornado warnings. This article summarizes our current understanding of the tornado threat to Europe by showing the changes in tornado injuries and fatalities since the 1950s and by estimating for the first time the damages associated with European tornadoes. To increase awareness of tornadoes and their threat to Europe, we propose a strategy that includes 1) collaboration between meteorological services, researchers, and the general public toward a pan-European database; 2) development of national forecasting and warning systems and of pan-European convective outlooks; and 3) development by decision-makers and emergency managers of policies and strategies that include tornadoes.

scholarly journals THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL BUSINESS TO IMPROVE THE QUALITATIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF EMPLOYMENT: PROBLEMS OF ESTIMATION AND REALIZATION IN UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (36) ◽  
pp. 430-441
Author(s):  
O. Marchenko ◽  
L. Khitsenko ◽  
A. Maliy ◽  
K. Chernenko ◽  
I. Verkhovod
Keyword(s):  
Small Business ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Productivity Level ◽  
Main Indicator ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Qualitative Characteristics

This main objective of this article is defining capacity of small business to act as compensator of negative trends, emerging in sphere of employment in large and medium sized business of Ukrainian economy. Authors are focused not only on the availability of working places created in small business for persons, vacated from large and medium sized enterprises, but on the small business capacity to create economic preconditions for improving qualitative characteristics of employment in this sector and in whole economy. Authors have built the multiplicative term, which expresses impact, caused by different characteristics of economic activity in small and large and medium sized business on the payroll dynamics as main indicator of economic potential for improvement characteristics of employment in appropriate economy’s sector. The first factor — is the total number of enterprises, as the expression of entrepreneurs’ economic activity and their preference to working in the official (registered) sector of the national economy. Second factor — is the average number of employees in enterprise of certain sector, as the expression of scale of resources, accumulated by average entity for economic activity. Third, the scale of output, created by unit employee in certain sector, as the expression of productivity level of labor resource, involved in this sector. Fourth, the volume of payroll is affected by the distribution of total output (which was used for estimation of labor productivity) between different directions of productive consumption, i.e. the share of payroll in the total revenue of small enterprises. The results obtained by factors analysis didn’t prove the thesis about small business capacity to compensate the negative trends, observed concerning employment in sectors of large and middle business of Ukrainian economy. The trends prevailing in creation and distribution of added value in small business does not contribute to improvement of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of employment in small business and whole Ukrainian economy. This situation indicates that small businesses in the face of negative macroeconomic dynamics have been unable to accumulate resources (at least by concentrating resources on fewer businesses that will be able to ensure higher efficiency) needed to improve the impact of the small business sector on the reproduction of employment in the economy of Ukraine. In addition, the significant lag in the level of wages in small business from large and medium and from the average level of the economy remains an important element of the mechanism for reproducing the low level of wages in Ukraine.

scholarly journals O PRINCÍPIO DA PRESERVAÇÃO DA EMPRESA FRENTE A EXIGÊNCIA DE REGULARIDADE TRIBUTÁRIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Edson Roberto Fidelis ◽  
Gislaine Carpena
Keyword(s):  
Small Business ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Research Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Small Company ◽  
Federal Constitution ◽  
The Face ◽  
Federal Supreme ◽  
Micro Enterprises

<p class="resumo"><strong>Resumo: </strong>O objetivo do presente artigo é a análise do artigo 17, inc. V da Lei Complementar nº 123 de 14 de dezembro de 2006, que determina a exclusão das microempresas e empresas de pequeno porte do regime do SIMPLES NACIONAL no caso de débitos tributários. Para a pesquisa, sob o ponto de vista metodológico, optou-se pelo processo de pesquisa bibliográfica, tendo como referência súmulas e orientações jurisprudenciais do Supremo Tribunal Federal, além dos princípios que norteiam a Constituição da República Federativa do Brasil de1988. A partir desse estudo se pôde verificar que a sanção para a empresa optante do regime do Simples que estiver inadimplente junto ao Fisco é demasiado pesada, dada a hipossuficiência da empresa diante da voracidade dos tributos cobrados pelo Estado nesses casos. Por fim, pretendeu-se trazer à tona, o modo agressivo com que o Estado, com o aval do Poder Judiciário abusa do Poder de fiscalizar e cobrar os impostos em face da empresa inadimplente, violando princípios constitucionais. Concluiu-se que é necessário implementar por meio do Judiciário, a possibilidade de defesa por parte do contribuinte ao invés da imediata exclusão da pequena empresa, do regime favorecido que a Constituição Federal lhe oferece.</p><p class="resumo"><strong>Palavras-chave:</strong> Lei Complementar nº 123/2006. Simples Nacional. Tributação. Micro e pequena empresa.</p><h3>THE PRINCIPLE OF THE PRESERVATION OF THE COMPANY IN RESPECT OF THE REQUIREMENT OF TAX REGULARITY</h3><div><p class="abstractCxSpFirst"><strong>Abstract: </strong>The purpose of this article is the analysis of article 17, inc. V of Complementary Law 123 of December 14, 2006, which determines the exclusion of micro enterprises and small businesses from the SIMPLES NACIONAL regime in the case of tax debts. For the research, from the methodological point of view, the bibliographical research process was chosen, having as reference references and jurisprudential orientations of the Federal Supreme Court, besides the principles that guide the Constitution of the Federative Republic of Brazil of 1988. From this It can be verified that the sanction for the company opting for the Simple regime that is in default with the Treasury is too heavy, given the company's hypersufficiency in the face of the voracity of the taxes charged by the State in these cases. Finally, it was intended to bring to light the aggressive way in which the State, with the endorsement of the Judiciary, abuses the power to inspect and collect taxes in the face of the defaulting company, violating constitutional principles. It was concluded that it is necessary to implement through the Judiciary the possibility of defense by the taxpayer instead of the immediate exclusion of the small company, from the favored regime that the Federal Constitution offers.</p><p class="abstractCxSpLast"><strong>Keywords:</strong> Complementary Law nº 123/2006. Simple National. Taxation. Micro and small business.<strong></strong></p></div>

scholarly journals QUE SUCEDE SI ERES PARTE DE LAS MICRO Y PEQUEÑAS EMPRESAS MYPES DE SUCRE DURANTE EL COVID 19.

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (23) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Iván Marcelo Poveda Velasco
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Small Enterprises ◽  
Survey Questionnaire ◽  
General Manager ◽  
National Policies ◽  
The Face ◽  
Micro And Small Enterprises ◽  
Technological Means

En Bolivia las micro y pequeñas empresas (MYPES) han resultado uno de los sectores productivos más afectados en por la crisis económica, que se ha visto agravada por las medidas de la emergencia sanitaria ante la pandemia COVID 19, según la consideración de representantes del sector como también por analistas.Para conocer el criterio de la Gerente General de CAINCO Chuquisaca Ing. Lucia Montalvo sobre la realidad de este sector y por su parte considerar lo que piensan los actores directos como son los propietarios de MYPES, consultando a 117 empresas, se ha trabajado con la guía de una entrevista y un cuestionario de encuesta respectivamente, realizando un análisis profesional y técnico de los resultados obtenidos.Las MYPES requieren de forma inmediata de un apoyo en base a políticas nacionales para financiamiento y créditos con bajos intereses y plazos no menores a 5 años.Requieren capacitar a su personal en medios tecnológicos, ventas a través de portales digitales y páginas WEB.Palabras clave: Micro y Pequeñas Empresas MYPES, CAINCO, financiamiento y crédito, tecnología. AbstractIn Bolivia, micro and small enterprises (MYPES) ​​have been one of the productive sectors most affected by the economic crisis, which has been aggravated by the measures of the health emergency in the face of the COVID 19 pandemic, according to the consideration of representatives of the sector as well as by analysts.In order to know the criteria of the General Manager of CAINCO Chuquisaca Ing. Lucia Montalvo on the reality of this sector and for his part to consider what the direct actors think such as the owners of MYPES, consulting 117 companies, we have worked with the guide of an interview and a survey questionnaire respectively, carrying out a professional and technical analysis of the results obtained.The MYPES immediately require support based on national policies for financing and credits with low interest and terms of no less than 5 years.They require training their staff in technological means, sales through digital portals and WEB pages.Keywords: Micro and Small Businesses MYPES, CAINCO, financing and credit, technology.

Analysis of Chinese People’s Perception of Radiation and Nuclear Power With Insights Into Behavioral Science

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsingtzu Wu ◽  
Da-Wei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Public Relations ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Social Acceptance ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Behavioral Science ◽  
System Model ◽  
Monetary Incentives ◽  
Outreach Programs ◽  
People’S Perception ◽  
The Face

Abstract Nuclear power has been at the center of public debate for decades, and social acceptance is critical to its development. A questionnaire survey was conducted to gain a better understanding of Chinese citizens’ perception of nuclear power and radiation from the perspectives of behavioral science. In this study the respondents’ cognitive biases regarding nuclear power and radiation were explained with a dual-system model. Effectiveness of outreach programs about nuclear power was recognized. In addition, this study suggests the prejudice against radiation remained strong in the face of statements of fact and monetary incentives. Finally, some suggestions regarding improvement in outreach programs and public relations policy are provided.

OPTIMIZATION OF TAXATION OF SMALL BUSINESSES

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 144-159
Author(s):  
Tatiana V. BAKUNOVA ◽  
Tatiana A. KOLTSOVA ◽  
Elena A. TROFIMOVA
Keyword(s):  
Small Businesses ◽  
Optimal Taxation ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Current System ◽  
Tax Burden ◽  
Economic Entity ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Face ◽  
Tax Benefits ◽  
Medium Enterprises

One of the topical priorities of the Russian economy at the present time is to strengthen the position of small business. Its development contributes to the optimization of the competitive economic environment, strengthening the integration of the scientific and technical sphere and production. The current system of state support for small businesses is also aimed at this. It has been significantly strengthened in the face of restrictions on activities due to the spread of coronavirus infection. The Unified Register of Small and Medium Enterprises as of 10 August 2021 contains 5,620,997 units with a number of employees of 14,646,503. At the same time, in 2021, there is a decrease in the number of individual entrepreneurs and peasant farms. At the same time, negative dynamics is observed in all constituent entities of the Russian Federation. A possible reason for this may be the level of taxation of small businesses. The purpose of the study is to reveal the theoretical and practical aspects of possible ways to optimize taxation of small businesses through the prism of the permissible level of tax burden on them. The research is based on the step-by-step disclosure of the existing systems of taxation of small businesses; basic methods for calculating the indicator of the tax burden and ways to optimize taxation; tax burden of a particular organization and proposals for tax optimization. The study resulted in recommendations on the organization of permanent control over the level of the tax burden of an economic entity, the choice of the optimal taxation regime from all possible and competent use of the tax benefits provided.

scholarly journals Interventions in entrepreneurial learning: Blended learning and ICT capacity

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Burgess ◽  
Scott Bingley ◽  
Rafael Paguio ◽  
Carolyn Woodley
Keyword(s):  
Blended Learning ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Learning Assessment ◽  
Business Practices ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Entrepreneurial Learning ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
The Face ◽  
Student Mentor

The effective use of information and communications technologies (ICT) can benefit most small businesses. This article examines the design, development and delivery of a pilot blended learning program for entrepreneurial learning that targets the use of ICT by tradespeople. The study involves a case study of tradespeople in Australia who participated in a program designed to build their capacity to identify, use and evaluate ICT to enhance their business practices. The program combined traditional instructional approaches (through face-to-face and online sessions for delivering basic ICT concepts to participants) with learner-centred approaches (through a combination of student mentor visits and practical exercises to identify applications that were context-specific for each participant's business). A blended learning assessment framework is employed throughout the article to inform and evaluate various aspects of the program. Project participants rated the face-to-face sessions, student mentor visits and practical exercises as very effective. However, some participants could not free up the time from their employment to participate in all of the face-to-face classes. From a theoretical perspective, an amended blended learning assessment framework for the delivery of ICT programs to entrepreneurs is presented and potential lessons for the delivery of ICT concepts to entrepreneurs in the trades and similar vocations are proposed.

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